Of Sure Things, Brain Drains and Churn: It's Quiz Time

by Rafael Vela on Mar 19, 2009 8:00 PM CDT Comment 42 comments

Grizz and I were talking about coaches yesterday, namely Wade Phillips, the cup cake slurs he faces, and his many uninspiring qualities.

Which got me thinking, how many NFL teams can claim they have sure things as head coaches? And with that, I've put together a quiz. Answer quickly and answer honestly -- no fair googling. Answers below.

Question One: How many active NFL coaches have coached a team to a title? I'm talking about leading a team as a head coach. Winning as a player or assistant doesn't count.

Question Two: How many active NFL coaches have coached their teams to a Super Bowl, win or lose?

Question Three: There have been 34 team this decade who have finished with losing records one year and made the playoffs the following year, an average of nearly four per season. Here's the most recent crop:

Miami: 1-15 in '07, 11-5 in '08
Atlanta: 4-12 in '07, 11-5 in '08
Baltimore: 5-11 in '07, 11-5 in '08
Carolina: 7-9 in '07, 12-4 in '08

The pattern has been consistent. Only twice this decade have fewer than four teams made the loser-to-playoffs jump in a given year. If the churn continues, which four losers will make it this year? Here's the candidate pool:

AFC -- Kansas City, Oakland, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Buffalo;
NFC -- St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay

Predict '09's "Fantastic Four." I'm going to say Jacksonville, Buffalo, Seattle and Green Bay

Question Four: The NFL playoff field churns an average of 50% from year to year. Last season, only five of the twelve playoff teams from '07 returned -- the Giants, Steelers, Colts, Chargers and Titans. As you can see, only one NFC team repeated.

Here's the '08 field. I want you to pick the five or six who will repeat:

NFC -- Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers, Falcons, Cardinals
AFC -- Dolphins, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Chargers, Titans

Usually the NFC has the most turnover. This year, I'm see more of the same. I'm going to say the Giants, Panthers, Steelers, Chargers and Titans return, with the other seven spots receiving fresh blood. My '09 version of the '08 Panthers or the '07 Packers, a team that was so-so who rockets to 12-4 or 13-3 this time around? The Saints.

Have at it. Answers upcoming.

Question One: Only three active head coaches who have won Super Bowls as coaches, and two have come in the last two seasons -- Bill Belichick (3) Tom Coughlin (1) and Mike Tomlin (1).

That's it, ladies and gentlemen. Has there ever been a shallower pool of NFL head coaches, experience wise? We've witnessed been an incredible brain drain in recent years, as Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs, Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher, Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Dick Vermeil and Tony Dungy have left the game. That's twelve combined titles and eighteen Super Bowl appearances right there.

Consider that only eight coaches -- Belichick, Coughlin, Reid, Fox, Smith, Fisher, Jack Del Rio and Marvin Lewis -- have been at their current jobs for more than three years. Reid and Fisher are the only guys to stay ten years on the same job. It's a fickle business.

Question Two: Only eight active coaches have led their teams to a Super Bowl. Three reside in the AFC -- Tomlin, Belichick and Jeff Fisher -- and five work in the NFC -- Coughlin, Andy Reid, Lovie Smith, John Fox and Ken Whisenhunt.

Cowboys fans have every right to feel uninspired about Wade Phillips, but they've got plenty of company. How many guys on this winners list were on the hot seat the last couple of years?

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Fantastic Four

I’m going with Jax, Sea, Cincy, and Green Bay.

I live in Bills’ territory. TO or no TO, they still don’t have the talent to do it. Cincy has the defense and hopefully a healthy offense again this year.

Repeaters:
NYG, Car, Colts, SD, and Tenn.

by Ridgelake on Mar 19, 2009 8:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cincy has a defense?

really? I thought that was hamstringing them the last 2 or 3 years. I don’t ever see a Bengals game, thats just what I thought I remembered

by AustonianAggie on Mar 20, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, and I even came up one short on answer one.

That’s pretty amazing, the coaching churn in the NFL just spins faster each year. Gone are the days of the Landrys, Lombardis, etc. that built and maintained dynastys. Now seems you get a 3 year shot at most and you’re done. I don’t know if that’s good or bad. Good post Raf, made me think even after being at work all day.

by Benthere on Mar 19, 2009 8:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

bellicheck

they aren’t gone but you have to great success to last

by AustonianAggie on Mar 20, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

funny I was just thinking of WP, unless he changes the percieved (at least by me) "laid back" aproach

he is going to be remembered as another Switzer,( I know I’ll get bashed over it, but he could of had 2 more SBs) in a way of getting a talented football team and doing nothing with it.
fantastic four: SF, GB, Jax, Oak
repeaters: Giants, Vikes, Titans and Steelers

by dcfanz on Mar 19, 2009 8:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

OK

I did pretty well on #1, then just guessed and doubled it for #2-not many!

KC, Jacks, SF49ers, GB; Will KC be better with Cassel? Very weak division either way, so always a possibility. And if I keep picking SF, one of these years I might be right!

Giants, Eagles, Falcons, Steelers, Chargers, Ravens—good young QB’s in Atlanta, Balt, San Diego, the other 3 are locks until proven otherwise-unfortunately……

by Realist Larry on Mar 19, 2009 9:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

so it seems dallas is going to have a tough time again according to you haha

What the French?! Toast!

by thebigham on Mar 20, 2009 7:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All I care about

Is seeing our Cowboys in the ’09 playoffs…
Which IMO will happen

by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 19, 2009 9:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

My Concern with WP

is not the perceived lad back approach or the lack of playoff wins. What bothers me more is his complete lack of ability to evaluate the talent on his team. He resists playing rookies just because they are rookies and “lack experience”. He would rather play a veteran who is hurt then bring in a back-up, even if he’s ineffective due to an injury. He also wasn’t able to determine last off-season, mini-camps or training camp that he didn’t have a back up QB.

by staubachfan on Mar 19, 2009 9:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

about that QB back up

not to beat up a dead horse, but i think that if we were to let go of Stanback earlier, we could of held on to Matt Moore maybe. I don’t know, it seams to me something is fishy the way everything unravel, JG tried to get his buddy Dom Capers to run the defense and it didn’t work for whatever reason, than WP tried to get DReeves to look over JG’s shoulder and again did not pan out. All points to a internal struggle and fight for influence, which definitely reflects on the team

by dcfanz on Mar 19, 2009 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was also sad to see Matt Moore go.

I know they were hoping to sneak him through to the PS.. Oops. However Moore was let go before the 07 season. That is way to ealy to give up on a 4th round project. sunch as Stanback

I could be wrong but I thought the reason Capers was not brouhgt in was because Brian Stewart did not feel comfortable with someone with his clout looking over his shoulder.

The whole Dan Reeves thing was just weird

by 082288 on Mar 19, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're dead on- the- money.

This team has an OC and a DC vying to be head coach. Too much power struggle crap going on. The icing on the cake is JJ with fingers in both pies. Until this structure stabilizes we could be in for some collapses again next season.

by Benthere on Mar 19, 2009 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you know, I couldn't have articulated it better than you

by dcfanz on Mar 19, 2009 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've thought about this for awhile even though I hated the thought.

I think some of the divisions we saw on the team last year were a result of this scenario playing itself out. Go back and look at some of the sideline shots from last season and you will see times where Romo looked like someone just fed him a sh*t sandwich, TO’s ever-unhappy face, and a bunch of guys with that “oh boy now we get to deal with this crap” look and/or body language. I sincerely believe it was caused by the aforementioned scenario. Even the coaches looked like that. It looked to me like a divided camp and I hope like hell those involved get their bull-you-know-what out of the way for the upcoming season, because I firmly believe the only thing holding this team back is that power play crap.

by Benthere on Mar 19, 2009 11:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

come to think about it, there are two poison pills

first JJ paying up JG a HC money in a way undermined WP’s authority
second maybe he should of got rid of one of them instead of making (all his d*&%*&% mouth set aside)TO a scapegoat.
at the end of last season I was thinking one of those coaches will be gone. TO sells seats and with the new stadium, what else do you need, but again there is a reason I am just a fan and not GM, hope for the best.
How fortunes change? two years ago JJ overpaid for JG to stay, few months ago he probably would of liked if Rams took him as of HC

by dcfanz on Mar 20, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right again.

JJs biggest disappointment had to have been the fact that Garrett wasn’t taken off his hands during the offseason. I only hope he has sat them down and defined what he wants from he and Wade for the 09 season to avoid a repeat scenario. And I am of the thinking that TO was in a way sacrificed at the altar to appease one camp. I just hope that doesn’t further divide and instead unifies this team. I got my popcorn ready and my fingers crossed.

by Benthere on Mar 20, 2009 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And add to the discussion JJ's overinvolvement in the team,

much more visible than ANY other GM in the league. How many can you even name?
That undercuts the coach’s authority, along w/the Garrett thing.

I posted a while back that, even if it didn’t work, it would have been better to just fire WP this offseason and make Garrett HC now. Get it over with, put one guy in charge, and see what he’s got. If he fails, he fails. But by giving him that contract, JJ has done everything but promise him the job someday anyways.

Does anyone really believe Phillips is anything more than a lame duck, unless they get to the SB?

by Realist Larry on Mar 20, 2009 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're absolutely right

Either one of them has to go. I think this will be Wades’ last rodeo and he’ll end up a DC for some other team. But as much as it is easy to hate the guy for his perceived unaccountability I can’t help but feel bad for him. Just when he gets the best shot of his life to be a HC with the best team, he’s handed this mess. How many other coaches walk in to a job where they’re not really the the head coach, that there’s this guy they like a little better and he’s already been anointed the next coming, and your boss thinks he’s a Broadway star.

by Benthere on Mar 20, 2009 12:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what if?

wade switched places with jason as HC, so wade is just DC and Jason is both OC and HC. i know it would never happen, and i wouldn’t want it to, but it’s kind of funny to think about, and with some of the strange things JJ has done i supposed it’s not totally impossible lol.

by scottmaui on Mar 20, 2009 1:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think its talent evaluation

its that he is a little too cautious and putting a rookie in there is a risk, no one knows how they are going to perform in a game time situation… this year if a rookie performs well i have a feeling they might start….example if we draft a SS and he out performs Sensebaugh I think Wade starts him

by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 19, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How did you come to that conclusion.......

WP’s first year (’07) rookies included 1-Anthony Spencer LB, 3-James Martin OT, 4-Isaiah Stanback WR, 4-Doug FreeOT, 6-Nick Folk K , 6-Deon Anderson FB, 7-Courtney Brown CB, 7-Alan Ball CB

A.Spencer played but was injured and so did Deon Anderson who also got injured. As for N. Folk , he became the Dallas kicker, …..all other players were developmental players and are still on the roster however none of these rookies were going to replace the starters on the team

WP’s second batch of rookies (’08) included: 1- Felix Jones RB, 1-Mike Jenkins, 2- Martellus Bennett TE, 4- Tashard Choice RB, 5- Orlando Scandrick, 6- Eric Walden

The only player that did not see action was 6th round pick Eric Walden…….. all offensive players were under JG, the OC- Coordinator and $3 mil. – Co-HC, all saw extensive action, even if because of last resort with T Choice. On Defense, where WP had more direct input, Jenkins and Scandrick were a very intregral part of that side of the ball………

Now, as for a Back-Up QB,,,,,,that was on JG, the $3mil co-equal paid as the HC-WP = Co-HC’s call

by Geeter on Mar 20, 2009 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like someone else we know.

Are you describing WP or BP?

by Johnny Cage on Mar 20, 2009 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Completely off subject here but since it is march madness...........

I just saw where my beloved Tarheels will be playing in the first college basketball game at the New Texas Stadium against the Longhorns! Not real sure why im excited about it but i am. Its kind of like drinking your favorite beer out of a brand spanking new beer hugger! Weird huh! I am definitely at the game! I will probably have some kind of system meltdown.

by TARHEEL PAUL on Mar 19, 2009 10:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I like Wade as a coach

I have no problem that he’s laid back or that he’s a players coach. My only problem I have is that he needs to stress accountability for his players and not take the blame for player mistakes. We’ve had problems with penalties for some time now; imagine if we were to cut that in half! We would be a much better looking Football team.

by NDCowboy8 on Mar 19, 2009 10:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

+1000

by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 19, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fantastic Four

I’ll say KC, SF, Buffalo and GB

Repeaters: Giants, Panthers, Falcons, Steelers, Colts & Titans

by scottmaui on Mar 20, 2009 12:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

My

Fantastic Four : Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco & Jacksonville. Also, I think Houston may finally make the playoffs.

Repeat Teams : NY Giants, Atlanta, San Diego & Pittsburgh.

Surprise team : Detroit. I bet they win twice as many games as last year – ha!

The Saints always scare me but for whatever reason they just can’t get over the hump. I guess the Saints D is just that bad. I think this will be the year the Colts start to go down. It will take Green Bay some time to adjust to the 3-4. I don’t see Seattle bouncing back – Holmgrem left at the right time.

by tyler2 on Mar 20, 2009 12:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Fantastic Four

KC, JAX, Buffalo, and Green Bay.

Repeats: Panthers, Falcons, Eagles, Steelers, and Colts

"If your good at something never do it for free." - The Joker

by houseofprime on Mar 20, 2009 2:40 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

At 13 -3

Where was the power struggle?

"He has a peculiar felicity of expression." John Adams

by Jim Vance on Mar 20, 2009 7:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

+1000

Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

by cowboy78 on Mar 20, 2009 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You forget the about the Opposite of the fantastic 4…

The disappointing 4. Every season also sees at least 4 teams that go from having a great season one year to missing the playoffs the following year. For example; look at these 4 teams 2007 records compared to 2008. All of these teams made the playoffs in ’07 but missed in ‘08:

2007 NFC: Dallas 13-3, Green Bay 13-3, Seattle 10-6
AFC: Jacksonville 11-5, New England 16-0

2008 NFC: Dallas 9-7, Green Bay 6-10, Seattle 4-12
AFC: Jacksonville 5-11, New England 11-5 (granted the Pats are a bit of a stretch here as a team finishes 11-5 and misses the playoffs about once every 25 years.)

My prediction for teams that are in for a disappointing follow up season next year are as follows:

NFC: Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia
AFC: Baltimore, Tennessee, Miami

Repeats:

NFC: Giants, Vikings
AFC: Colts, Chargers, Steelers

I’m predicting San Francisco will be the team that rockets to 12-4 or 13-3. I don’t really see 4 teams with losing records from 2008 making the jump all the way to the playoffs in ’09. Mostly because there were a lot of teams in ’08 that finished with .500 or better records that missed the playoffs who I think will make the jump next year; i.e. Dallas, New Orleans, Washington, New England. So along with the 49ers I see Buffalo and Cleveland making the jump from looser to post season; which will give me a "fantastic 3" as opposed to 4.

0 = The number of Super Bowls the Eagles have won.

by gee-roj on Mar 20, 2009 8:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The last part of your comments are certainly possible

the fantastic four trend has been nearly automatic. In the nine years this decade six have seen four losers
make the jump the next year. In one year there were three but were balanced out by a following year in which there were five.

But two years ago there were only two, for the exact reason you stated. A lot of 8-8 teams got hot and jumped into the playoffs.

San Francisco might be that team but I can’t see they making a huge jump with the QB they have. If they got Matt Sanchez and he was good of the box, maybe, but that and their weak OL make me skeptical.

by Rafael Vela on Mar 20, 2009 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Miles Austin finishes the 09 season with......

950 Yards and 6 TD’s

Now back to Wade

by sublimezg on Mar 20, 2009 9:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What the heck.

by Johnny Cage on Mar 20, 2009 9:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That was supposed to be

What the heck…

my four teams: Seattle, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Jacksonville
my six teams: Falcons, Vikings, Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, Colts

I’ll probably end up on Gregg Easterbrook’s Bad Predictions Review next year.

by Johnny Cage on Mar 20, 2009 9:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Haha

Nice.

Webster's definition of irony: Keyshawn Johnson calling another football player selfish.

by AirforceBat on Mar 20, 2009 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it's April ...

then it must be Liverpool v. Chelsea for the right to move in the EC …

by Elberraco on Mar 20, 2009 10:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, well,

Jose ain’t there. Takes most of the fun out of it. But since I can’t stand either team, I’ll root for 0-0 after 180 minutes and a shootout that leaves both teams emotionally exhausted.

by Rafael Vela on Mar 20, 2009 1:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't tell me you're a ManU guy?

Go Chelsea

Res firma mitescere nescit

by Fighter15 on Mar 20, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heavens, no

Arsenal

by Rafael Vela on Mar 21, 2009 1:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Ploughman dig my earth"

A somber tip of the hat as Battlestar Galactica fades into the sun. Frack.

I don’t care to guess the other three turnaround teams, but I’m picking Detroit. In part just to be onery, well mostly that, and the rest in reliance of the old adage: Worst to first, baby; 0-16 to contenders. Cowboys & Lions in the NFC championship. Fire at will.

Oh... Oh, that's giving me a clue. Yeah, ye-yeah, I've got a raging clue right now.

I was StarStruck at TBB/BSR, now...

by icStars on Mar 21, 2009 12:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs