What was the Difference Between Dallas and the 12 Playoff Teams?
by BishopWest on Mar 26, 2009 8:21 AM CDT
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What were the MAJOR differences (statistically) between the 2008 Dallas Cowboys and the 12 teams that made the playoffs?
Was it the WIN / LOSS RECORD? Not really
PHI only bested DAL by ½ a game
ARI actually had the same record as DAL 9-7
Was the difference NET POINTS? Nope
Even though some playoff teams had a very high NET POINT advantage, like
TEN (+141)
BAL (+141)
Other playoff teams had a much lower NET POINT accumulation, like
MIA (+28)
ARI (+1)
DAL at -3 was not very far removed from ARI.
Was the difference PASS COMPLETION PERCENTAGE? no
Although some playoff teams had a high percentage
IND – 67.2%
MIA – 67.2%
Other playoff teams were much lower
MIN – 59.1%
TEN – 58.5%
So DAL, at 60.0% was in the ball park
Was the difference YARDS PER GAME? no
Between the high of ARI: 365.8 yards per game
And the low of PIT: 311.9 yards per game
DAL was in the middle: 344.5
Was the difference 3RD DOWN CONVERSION PERCENTAGES? no
Between the high of IND: 50%
And the low of TEN: 36%
DAL was exactly in the middle: 43%
Was the difference TIME OF POSSESION? no
Between the high of
BAL: 33 minutes 22 seconds
And the low of
IND: 28 minutes 39 seconds
DAL was in-between: 30 minutes 02 seconds per game
Was the difference SACKS ALLOWED? no
Between the low of
TEN – 12 sacks allowed
And the high of
PIT – 49 sacks allowed
DAL was in the middle: 31 sacks allowed
I could continue with a long list of similar statistics that show that the Cowboys’ numbers looked like the numbers of the playoff teams: Rushing, Passing, Scoring, Quarterback Rating, Yards per Reception, Points Allowed, Plays From Scrimmage, Sacks Made, Tackles, etc.
The ONLY TWO AREAS that I see right now, statistically, that separated the Cowboys from the 12 playoff teams are:
PENALTIES and TURNOVER RATIO
First look at Penalties:
DAL led the league in number of Penalties: 119 for the year
How did the playoff teams do?
The 6 AFC playoff teams averaged: 94.6 penalties for the year (about 24 less than DAL)
The 6 NFC playoff teams averaged: 89.6 penalties for the year (about 29 less than DAL)
Second look at Turnover Ratio:
DAL was -11 and only SF (-17) and DEN (-17) were worse. We were rated 30th in Turnover Ratio – Awful!
MIN (-6) and ATL (-3) were the only playoffs teams to be in the negative with turnover ratio. The leaders were MIA (+17), TEN (+14), and BAL (+13).
The Cowboys fumbled the ball 29 times and lost 13 of them (4th WORSE in the league)
Romo fumbled 13 times and lost 8
Barber fumbled 7 times and lost 3
The Cowboys threw 20 INTs (2nd WORSE in the league)
Romo 14 INTs
Johnson 5 INTs
Bollinger 1 INT
The Cowboy Defense only Intercepted the ball 8 times all year (3rd WORSE in the league)
Newman 4 INTs
Hamlin 1 INT
Jenkins 1 INT
Henry 1 INT
Ellis 1 INT
However, the Cowboy Defense Recovered 14 Fumbles all year (5th BEST in the league)
Henry, James, and Ware were the only players with more than 1 recovery; they had 2 FUM RECs each
Simply put: if DAL can reduce its penalties and increase its turnover ratio the likelihood of making the playoffs is much greater.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Would've been worse...
if he had not missed those games. Way to go Romo!! Another year like the last and we’ll be talking quarterback in next years upcoming draft.
Imagine how much better we would have been with a QB who doesn’t make so many stupid plays. Romo is a good QB through November and then just falls apart in December and January. That is not a great thing for an NFL QB. In my opinion this should be a make or break season for Romo. Owens is no longer around to cause problems. This is his team now. If he fails this year I wouldn’t be surprised to see us draft a QB next. I’m not saying we draft one in the first round but maybe in the second or third kind or like the Eagles did with Kolb. It’s a decent class next year so we could draft a decent QB next year.
imagine how good we'd be
with an OL that wasn’t a sieve and that could runblock? an OC that didn’t get pass happy and make every route a 20+ yarder with 7 step drops?
Romo is not perfect, but if we were sound in the above area’s, didn’t commit a bunch of penalties and actually caused a few turnover, we’d have made the playoff easily. Romo needs to step it up late in the year, but if I were to rank reasons we have underachieved, he would not be in the top 5.
You raise a good point about the offensive line. They were not very good last year and we can only hope that it was do to Kosier being out all year. There is no question that Adams is on the downhill side of his career. The problem though is that all 5 starters are being paid big money and are signed for a few more years. We caused 22 turnovers but it goes back to Romo throwing to many INT’s. Garrett is to pass happy and that should change this year because we should be running more. Romo threw 14 INT. and he missed 3 games. He averaged one a game that makes it harder to win games. I watched many of the Cowboys games and at least half of those INT. were just dumb throws on his part. I think we need to come away from this draft with a ball hawking safety. I personally like Darcel McBath from Texas Tech. In my mock draft I have Dallas taking him in the third round.
we make the playoffs if Romo doesn't get hurt
and who knows what would have happened in the playoffs, just ask the Cards.
In Romo we Trust
agreed
we won 1 of 3 with Johnson at QB and I think with Romo we would have won 2 of 3. My problem with Romo is that he when he makes mistakes they always seem to come at the worst possible time. The dropped snap against Seattle, the overall disaster against the Giants and the late INT against the Steelers. Romo is probably around the 10th best QB in the game right now.
I disagree
I actually think other than the Seattle muff and Steelers pick, most of his gaffs come early enough in games that he has enough time to overcome them and usually does.
Perception versus reality
BTW, there are not 9 qbs in the league better than Romo.
In Romo we Trust
These are the the guys that I would rank ahead of him their not in any order just players that I think are better than Romo. Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Ben Rothlisberger, and Phillip Rivers. Some of these guys are clearly ahead of him others are on about the same level. Some of these guys got on based on the fact that they just win (Rothlisberger, Manning, and Delhomme) others because of stats (Warner and Brees) others because they have proven that they can win the big game like the Mannings and Brady. and some because they are a tough and underrated player like Palmer. Remember Palmer had a similar hit to what Brady, got against him by the Steelers in the playoffs a few years ago and there was no rule enacted.
you could make a decent argument
for all of them but Delhomme, no way he’s even close to being as good as Romo and the ones clearly better are Brady and Manning.
Romo is definitely in the Brees, Roethlisberger, Palmer, McNabb, Rivers and Eli, Warner class.
In Romo we Trust
I mostly agree, but
Roethlisberger, Eli, and Warner have Super Bowl rings, and Romo is NOT in THAT class.
then your logic means that
Jeff Hostetler, Jim Plunkett, Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer are better than Dan Marino and Dan Fouts.
In Romo we Trust
Plunkett was a good QB who has gotten more underrated as time has went on. The other 3 QB’s were somewhat minor parts of their teams. All 3 of those teams had great defenses and good running games. Johnson did have some good statistical seasons in Tampa. The point is while they might not have had the great seasons that Romo has had and they may have been minor parts to their teams they also didn’t do anything to cost their teams a shot at a Super Bowl.
the point should be jack
QBs don’t win SBs, teams do. QBs on SB winning teams get too much credit for those chamipionships, just like Romo is now getting too much blame for his teams not winning any so far.
I got news for you, QBs are not a minor parts of any team in the NFL, even ones with great defenses. You can’t hide QB play to win a championship, actually the opposite is true, you must have great qb play to do so.
In Romo we Trust
Terry, you say that Romo is "now getting too much blame"
I guess the idea of “too much blame” is subjective, but I’m having a hard time getting over the fact the he is responsible for 20 Turnovers.
When many games, especially BIG games, rely on the Turnover Ratio being in favor of the winning team, how can Romo NOT be blamed?
He LOST 8 FUMBLES and threw 14 INTS. Romo is responsible for 22 of 33 team Turnovers. One guy (Romo) had 66% of the total turnovers. Who else are we to blame?
I’m sure that one or two of the INTs were not his fault, maybe a ball bounced off a WRs hands and right into the hands of the DB. Maybe on a lost fumble, another DAL player let the ball slip away when trying to recover and the ball ends up in the hands of the defense.
However, MOST of those 22 turnovers are Romo’s fault! I think this one factor, failing to protect the ball, restricts him to the level of a GOOD QB instead of a GREAT QB.
turnovers are not the sole reason
why we lost 7 games and failed to make the playoffs. There are other factors that contribute to losing and like I said before, Romo overcomes his TOs the vast majority of times.
Unless you can prove all 20 of his TOs lead directly to the opposing team scoring and directly affecting the outcome of any game, I think your argument is without merit.
The only one I can think of is the Steelers game I personally witnessed.
In Romo we Trust
The only reason that Delhomme made my list was that he is a winner. He is clearly not as talented as the rest but the guy does win games.
Delhomme?
Seriously, whats he done in the last 3 years to warrant being ahead of romo? keep in mind romo doesnt have anything close to the panthers run game.
Same goes for Eli. This team has needed a qb to WIN them games. Eli and Delhomme, and at this stage of his career, McNabb arent able to do that. Give Romo the giants insanely good run game and its a completely different situation.
While Carolina does have a good run game and so do the Giants these guys don’t make mistakes to cost their teams a shot at winning it all. Delhomme took the Panthers to the Super Bowl and only lost to the Pats by 3. Manning won the Super Bowl against a previously undefeated team. I think everyone was on top of their game that night. McNabb hasn’t had a good running game in years and has only had a true number 1 WR for one season and yet the guy continues to win. He’s another guy who has been to the Super Bowl and made to the NFC Championship game 3 years in a row. I didn’t rank the guys in any order but they have all won quite a few playoff games and thus far Romo hasn’t proven that he can win a playoff game.
neither has any other qb
I’m pretty sure the other 44 players had something to do with winning those playoff games.
In Romo we Trust
Delhomme took the Panthers to the super bowl 5 years ago!
What did he do in the playoffs last year? thats right, he had a game as bad as any romo has had in his entire career. Romo has absolutely done the same thing eli did in his playoff wins – put us in position to win games. We were up 8 or so against seattle and the defense had just made a goal line stand, when glenn fumbled through the back of the end zone. In the late third/early fourth quarter, Romo made big throws that would’ve gone for a td to fasano and a monster, momentum changing gain to Crayton, that were dropped. Meanwhile, the Giants, who i believe led the league in drops that season, had a very good game on the receiving end.
That's an interesting thought...stephen1
What are the top 5 reasons we have underachieved in your opinion?
Romo is responsible for 14 INTS and 8 Fumbles Lost in only 13 games – I’m thinking that’s gotta land him somewhere in the top 5 of my reasons for our team underachieving and missing the playoffs.
Those gaffs negate PART of all the good he does (passing yards, completion percentage, TD passes, and his Farve-like ability to make something out of nothing.) Unless he PROTECTS the ball more this year than in 2008, in a couple of years Romo will be a BACK-UP QB on another team.
no way a qb with a 90+ qb rating
and a 2:1 TD/INT ratio is a backup. If Romo continues to put up the numbers he has in the past for at least 5-6 more years, he’ll be one of the all time greats regardless of his post season record.
In Romo we Trust
I think that without T.Owens as a distraction
The impetus has been put on Romo. Up til now T.O. was the “reason” for Romo’s gaffs, as some would say. But if this year or next, Romo continues to cough up the ball, especially in December, and the Boys don’t make the playoffs – all the blame will be on him. He’ll end up as a QB with a reputation that he can’t win the big game, and DAL will be looking for another starting QB.
Now BELIEVE ME – I Don’t Want That To Happen!!!
I hope Romo leads us to many Super Bowls wins!
I disagree T.O. was the reason for his gaffs
although he was the reason he couldn’t exert his leadership over the team.
The bottom line is that Romo will get better, he’s too good not to.
In Romo we Trust
I'm not saying that T.O.
Was or wasn’t the reason – I think it is perception
I do believe that Romo CAN get better, but the question is WILL he get better? This year we will find out.
It will
Be a big year for Romo, but not a make or break year, remember elway losing in the playoffs constantly or peyton. It happens to great players. Romo isn’t great, but he is one of the best around. Besides Peyton-Brady- “maybe” Palmer(if healthy) there is nobody who’s really better/ more talented.(Cutler, Brees, Rivers ect.) haven’t won a superbowl, so stick with Romo he’s young and only been playing 2 1/2 years. give the kid a chance he’ll win he’s always found a way from being undrafted to starting on America’s team nobody wants it more than him, b/c of that hell get it.
Texas Stadium has a hole in the roof so God can watch his favorite team play football.
Elway did make the the Super Bowl twice and while he did lose both of them he still won the games to get there. Romo hasn’t won a playoff game yet. Plus Elway was plagued by no running game and a bad defense. Last year we had arguably the most talented team in the NFL and we still only won 9 games. I know that all of the blame can’t be placed on Romo, some goes to the coaching staff, some on the defense and some on the fact that he missed 3 games. However if we had won it all last year he would be taking the credit for guiding us there and with us not winning I think he should get his share of the blame.
the reason we went 9-7 last year
INJURIES
which resulted in poor offensive line play
by CowboysFan4Life on Mar 26, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
jack dein
You say Elway was plagued with no running game?
They won the Super Bowl after the regular season in 1997 and 1998.
1997 – Terrell Davis was the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL (1750 yards) only behind Barry Sanders
1998 – Terrell Davis led the ENTIRE NFL in rushing (2008 yards)!
imagine how good we'd be with a perfect qb
and while we’re at it, imagine how good we’d be with 52 other players who never make mistakes.
In Romo we Trust
i think that they actually go together
the more penalties we get, the more fatigued we get, the less points we get, the more frustrated we get, the harder it gets to move the chains, etc….
for every false start or holding or whatever, it makes it that much further to move the chains… and going through first down droughts with a few possessions ending in 3rd and 12, 3rd 20, 3rd and 15 etc, it starts to frustrate all players, which leads to more penalties, and it effects romo’s ability to make smart decisions with the football… how many 3rd and longs do we all expect romo to go through before he starts forcing balls, or holding on too long to find someone…
i think if we just cut down the penalties, the turnovers will take a hit as well…
by CowboysFan4Life on Mar 26, 2009 12:20 PM CDT reply actions
I didn't even have to read the article
I knew right off the bat it was our penalties, and turnover ratio! I think with T.O. gone Romo will stop trying to force so many passes, or at least I hope. As far as penalties go all I can do is pray that we are much more disciplined next year.
What area of the team had the largest amount of penalties
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
The Answer to your question is.. the OL
The Offensive Line = 33 penalties (235 yards)
Adams – 13 for 85
Davis – 6 for 55
Columbo – 8 for 45
Gurode – 3 for 30
Procter – 2 for 20
Kosier – 1 for 10
Observations: Adams is the most penalized player on the team. He was the first player in 2008 to be flagged, and it only took until the 6th play of the first game for him to get off on the wrong foot. Of his 13 penalties, 9 of them were False Starts. He had penalties in 11 different games. On 9 of his penalties the offense did not get a first down after his gaff and either had to punt, settle for a long FG, or ended up with a turnover. He single handedly stalled more drives than any other player on the 52 man roster. Columbo is almost as bad, he had 6 False Starts. By comparison, Gurode had 1, while Procter and Kosier had zero False Starts.
For more on penalties read my other post… Come on Wade, Crack the Whip!
I was doing a little research and found something interesting. If we wouldn’t have resigned Adams last year and would have waited until the draft to get our LT we would have a very different team. There were 8 tackles taken in the first round last year, but only 1 after our first round pick. We would have had to trade up to get one. Jake Long went 1st, Ryan Clady went 12th, Chris Williams went 14th, Branden Albert went 15th, Gosder Cherilus went 17th, Jeff Otah went 19th, Sam Baker went 21st and Duane Brown went 26th. We could have still took Felix Jones at 22 and then traded back in at 25 to take Brown, but he gave up 11.5 sacks last year for the Texans. We would have had to trade up to get a good tackle. Long is out, 10 spots to get Clady would have cost to much, Williams at 14 is possible, Albert would have been a great pick, Cherilus and Otah were more of right tackles so that leaves Baker. The Falcons traded back into the first round to get him so we would have had to move in front of them to get him. I doubt we get to hold onto our pick at 22 but we could have traded this years first round pick to move up and that means we don’t make the trade for Roy Williams, which means Owens is still on the team. I know what your thinking why not wait and take a tackle later in the draft. Only 3 tackles taken in rounds 2-7 played significant time last year. John Greco went in the 3rd round 65th overall to the Rams he started 1 game, Carl Nicks went in the 5th round 164th overall and started 13 games all at guard though, and Anthony Collins went in the 4th round 112th overall to the Bengals and started 6 games. Suddenly Adams doesn’t look that bad.
Yeah, JJ was between a rock and a hard place.
LT’s just don’t grow on trees and for all Flo’s warts, he’s a LT that’s capable of playing at a Pro-Bowl level. Sometimes that is. LOL
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
Imagine how all of those numbers would look
if they would have shown up against Phili in the last game
Free Frank Catalanotto
The only positive memory from that game that I have is when Bradie jumped in the air to sack Mcflabb.
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
Turnovers Yes
They determine, more than any other statistic, who wins and loses games. My regression results show one turnover is worth six points, which is enormous.
My research has shown penalties basically don’t matter in determining how well a team performs. Dallas led the league in penalties last year, but four playoff teams were among the top eight offenders in penalties committed (Arizona, Tennessee, Baltimore and the Giants). On the other hand, you will find Cincinnati and several mediocre teams that were among the eight best teams in committing the fewest penalties.
This was noticed as early as the 1970’s, where bad boys Oakland were near the top of the league in most penalties committed each year, and Miami was towards the bottom. Both were excellent, perennial contenders. The thinking was the Dolphins succeeded because they were disciplined and relied on execution; the Raiders succeeded because they were a very aggressive team that often crossed the line in drawing flags. Either approach has been shown to work.
Turnovers matter more than anything. Penalties matter hardly at all, in the scheme of things. Good teams do two things: They win the turnover differential battle, and the net yards from scrimmage battle. Everything else is pretty much window dressing.
Romo and Barber simply have to take better care of the ball.
Both those guys try just so dang hard to make plays.
George Teague, Brock Marion, the Roy Williams-of-old: Where are you?
...
turnover ration is THE most predictavie W/L stat in all of football and if someone is trying to tell you differently they’re telling stories.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
we can live with romos ints
the problem when it comes to turnover ratio is his fumbles and the lack of turnovers forced by the secondary
It wasn't so much how many INT's that he had last season
although he had too many IMO for the 13 games he played in. It was the type of INT’s had. Some of them were just boneheaded. I can live with ones where he tried to fit it into tight coverage and he just got picked but the ones where he just wings it up are the ones that bother me. Or like the one in the first Philly game last season. Where he escaped pressure and then just through it to the other team. I think if he can work on his awareness in those situations, learn not to force the ball, then his INT’s are going to be cut in half IMO and if the O-line blocks a little better we’ll see his fumbles hopefully cut down too.
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
I really don't agree
in most of his INTs, at least over the second half of the season, he generally had somethign open and he recognized it, the pass was just off. Even the philly game, he had a man there but the pass floated on him if i remember right. These aren’t problems with his decision making, they are problems with his actual physical passing, and his accuracy which seemed to be off returning from that injury.
Fumbles are my problem. Hes gotta learn when to tuck it and go on to the next play.
washington
he had one int where he missed TO on the slant. TO was open. He had another where it wasn’t a fantastic pass but TO still should’ve held on after the hit/deflection.
Pitt, he ridiculously under threw what looked like it shouldda been a fade to TO. Again, it wasn’t some impossible pass. He also had a miscommunication with witten at the end.
The ed reed int was definitely a dumb pass, but my point is that the large majority of the time, hes not wrong in throwing the ball. Its not like they’re all “dumb decisions”
Now, with Owens gone, maybe the TV people can let us watch the game, instead of
following Owen’s every move. I like Owen’s, but I did not like the celeb worship from the TV people.
Family, Friends, Cowboys, Beer & BBQ. Life is good!
Cheers to that--especially that footage with him yelling at Gurode against AZ. How many times do they have to show that?
George Teague, Brock Marion--we need you!
by Aaron Novinger on Apr 2, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Witten made some pretty interesting comments.....
about T.O. yesterday didn’t he? I thought he handled the situaeK_ with a lot of class.
Girls don't burp
Or poop, for that matter.
Everything's looking up, Milhouse!
by accidental innuendo on Apr 3, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
hahaha.....
Did ya see the Baylor Bears last night? You are an alumini I think right?
Yeah, my son goes there.....
it’s a good school that’s hopefully on the rise sports wise.
I did too but of course some of those so-called fans over at the DMN blog took it as another chance to take a shot at Witten.
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
Maybe they didn't read it right.
If the media was a person, he/she should feel really dumb.
George Teague, Brock Marion--we need you!
by Aaron Novinger on Apr 2, 2009 10:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm sorry, this is just ignorant
Was the difference NET POINTS? Nope
The measure of a good team is outscoring your opponent. If you get outscored over a season like Arizona and make the playoffs, you’re lucky, not good.
One of these days the concept of “reason” will enter the lexicon of NFL analysis, like it was with MLB.
Kudos on the research, guys, very enlightening. One question. How many of Romo’s INT’s were thrown from a secure pocket, and how many were thrown while running for his life or when Flo did an Ole’ on the speed rusher?
I seem to remember quite a few interceptions where the wrong route was run, and the receiver was out of position, and no, not just TO, but Witten, Crayton, et al. For the most part, I believe Romo’s INTs were a result of poor protection and blitz pickup, and a lack of commitment to the run game. The loss of Felix Jones can not be overstated in my opinion. A genuine home run threat out of the backfield and an outstanding receiver, his injury led to overcompensating with the pass. Thus more INTs, thus more rushers pinning their ears back and coming full speed on every play. Red Ball did not adjust well either. Lots of blame to go around. To crucify Romo after 2 1/2 years as a starter is absurd. Flozell will always have false starts, he is hearing impaired in his RIGHT ear, the ear closest to the ball for him. He is obviously in decline, but still better than what we could have got in the draft at our position last year, and CB was a greater need. I was hoping for JJ to waive Proctor not resign his sorry butt, and would have liked to see him take a run at Kevin Schaffer as a swing/backup tackle. The Bears have significantly improved their line with him, Pace, and being able to move Chris Williams to RT. My .02 cents.
When the receiver runs the wrong route
And Romo releases the ball to where he should have been – I can understand a possible INT, but on ALL the other reasons you listed, it still SPELLS POOR DECISION MAKING on the part of Romo.
When a pass rusher break through the OL and puts pressure on Romo – he should take a sack or throw it away (without intentionally grounding the ball.)
When Romo is “running for his life” – he should run out of bounds, throw it away, or take a sack – the LAST THING he should do is force a pass and get another INT. THAT has been his major criticism.
Regardless of what kind of play Garrett calls and even if they completely abandon the run game – none of that is an EXCUSE for an INT. Flo could be deaf in both ears and that should NOT cause Romo to throw an INT.
MOST of Romo’s INTs come when he tries to make something out of nothing – like throwing to guys double-teamed and NOT OPEN. Someone said that Romo “just takes what the defense gives him” but I don’t agree. His mistakes come when he fails to do JUST THAT and heaves a ball up for grabs, stumbling, bumbling, half falling down and still slinging the ball 30 yards down field right into the hands of the defense.
He’s got HEART but he fails to play with his HEAD at times. Perhaps he can “grow out of it” but I don’t know.
You missed it completely
The simple answer;
Those teams were all beter coached (by better coaches) than Dallas was.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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