Draft '09: A Cowboys Four Pack Would Make Me Happy
by Rafael Vela on Mar 31, 2009 11:53 AM CDT
71 comments
We're seeing increased speculation that the Cowboys will again move around on draft days, with eleven picks to fortify them. (Nine actually, since the two supplemental picks cannot be dealt). Some people do think Dallas will utilize all eleven picks. Some think they'll make nine picks, or eight.Last year, if you recall, Dallas made only six.
Of more importance is the number of selectees who stuck. Dallas got immediate production from the five draftees who made the final roster -- Felix Jones, Mike Jenkins, Martellus Bennett, Tashard Choice and Orlando Scandrick.
Five represents a high number, a very high number, in Dallas draft history. It's rare for the team, even in the Landry days, to come away from a draft with more than three players who became starters. Look at the team's foundational drafts, from 1961 through 1969. You never see a year where Dallas generated more than three starters from any crop. What's also clear is that the hits were not solid singles, but draft-day grand slams:
Starters, by year:
- 1961- Bob Lilly
- 1962 - George Andrie
- 1963 - Lee Roy Jordan;
- 1964 - Mel Renfro, Bob Hayes, Roger Staubach
- 1965 - Craig Morton, Jethro Pugh
- 1966 -- John Niland, Willie Townes, Walt Garrison
- 1967 -- Rayfield Wright
- 1968 -- Blaine Nye, D.D. Lewis, Larry Cole
- 1969 - Calvin Hill
A real quality over quantity list. In the pre-cap era, a success rate like this, and a patient owner, could let you build to championship mass. Not so in the cap era, where intense roster churn occurs.
That said, you can't count on half a dozen quality players, never mind starters, every year. Look at Jimmy Johnson's Herschel Walker-trade enriched classes:
- '89 -- 4 starters (Aikman, Johnston, Stepnoski, Tolbert)
- '90 -- 1 starter, 3 "keepers" (E. Smith, J. Jones, Gant)
- '91 -- 6 starters (Maryland, Harper, Edwards, Williams, Lett, Brown)
- '92 -- 4 starters (K. Smith, R. Jones, J. Smith, Woodson)
- '93 -- 3 starters, 4 keepers -- (K. Williams, D. Smith, Stone, Marion)
Note, Jimmy Johnson's individual drafts, the '91 class aside, didn't produce bushels of great players. (And it should be noted that Jimmy drafted 18 players to get that '91 class.) What Johnson demonstrated was something that has evaded Dallas, through the Jerry 1.0 and the Parcells years -- the ability to land three or four solid players for several consecutive years.
Look at the starters and keepers (guys who are solid rotation players, 3rd WRs, rotation RBs) this decade. (And again, I'm keeping the bar low -- if a guy started for a few seasons, he's considered a hit. If he became a starter for another team -- Jimmy Smith, Matt Lehr, etc., he's considered a hit.)
- '00 -- no keepers
- '01 -- 2 starters, 3 keepers (Carter, Blade, Lehr)
- '02 -- 3 starters (R. Williams, Gurode, A. Bryant)
- '03 -- 3 starters, 4 keepers (Newman, A. Johnson, Witten, James)
- '04 -- 1 starter, 3 keepers (J. Jones, Crayton, Reeves)
- '05 -- 5 starters, 6 keepers (Ware, Spears, Burnett, Canty, Barber, Ratliff)
- '06 -- 1 starter, 3 keepers (Fasano, Hatcher, Watkins)
- '07 -- 2 starters, 3 keepers (Spencer, Folk, Ball)
- '08 -- 1 starter, 5 keepers (F. Jones, Jenkins, Bennett, Choice, Scandrick)
Consistency is the word we're looking for. That '05 draft was rich. So was '08's. But in between, Anthony Spencer and Nick Folk are the only draftees making major week-to-week contributions.
If Dallas wants to move up a notch into the league's elite, Tom Ciskowski will have to recommend another four pack of quality youngsters this year. Don't worry about the eight draft picks, or nine draft picks, or trying to get a player to fit every perceived Cowboys hole.
Tell yourself right now, the Cowboys won't get what they want, because they won't. I can't predict if they'll fail to get an inside linebacker or an offensive tackle, or a nose guard, or a safety, but understand they're going to miss on at least one of them. That's just the way drafts work. And that's besides the point.
Dallas may have seven or eight holes, but history shows they'll be okay if they fill half of them next month. Four quality players are what they need.
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If I can only have 4
I would like a center, NT, LB and DB.
sounds good
I’d tweak DB to S and C to G, but if they could get a guy who plays both spots for the
O-line, they’re doing well.
We haven’t talked about OTs but I think they’re going to draft one in the 3-5 range. McQuistan
appears to be on his last legs and I don’t have much faith in Free at this point.
by Rafael Vela on Mar 31, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Phil Loadholt is called the best RT in the draft
he has the best size and the longest arms, and a mean streak. What is it that precludes him from being a LT?
by AustonianAggie on Mar 31, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep
You don’t want him protecting your QB’s blindside. Those quick speedy linebackers and ends would give him fits.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
He's slow
Good edge rushers made him look like a clod last year. He’s a RT.
He’s not Flozell’s replacement and if Dallas spent their 2nd on him I would be very disappointed.
I think we need at least one good corner
Trading Henry and cutting Pacman leaves us thin at corner. If Tnew, Scandrick or Jenkins gets hurt we are vulnerable.
Garrett needs to get a clue!
I agree.
At least one, if not 2, CBs in this draft would be nice—especially if one is a good PR.
George Teague, Brock Marion, the Roy Williams-of-old: Where are you?
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 31, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Now the question is
how do you count to 4?
By drafting 9 and weeding the bottom 5 people out?
Or by trading and drafting 4 or 5 who are higher on the board?
Kansas...I think it's a combination of both
I don’t think this is an “either or” proposition as to the best approach. Obviously, on our very top picks, we’re hoping to hit. So is everyone. But we have alot of picks in the lower rounds. Do you go with a shotgun approach and draft a bunch of players hoping to find a few diamonds in the rough? Or do you try and package a bunch of picks to move up and improve the chances for success in a higher round? My guess is a combination of both. We’ll probably end up with 6-7 players, having packaged a few of the lower picks.
by Boundforbeach on Mar 31, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I think we may see a trade up early
and maybe some trade downs or outs in the 4th. If Dallas leaves the 3rd with two guys they really like, we might see a repeat of ’08, where they traded out of the 3rd and picked up 3rds and 4ths this year.
And I think we’ll also see trade ups from the 6th and 7th into the 5th or very late 4th. Some of their best values were found there.
Marion Barber had a 2nd round grade and was picked at the top of the 4th;
Orlando Scandrick had a 3rd round grade and they traded up to the 5th to get him.
Look at the National Football Post’s three round mock, which they posted yesterday. I saw a lot of players I liked in that 3rd round. Someone or ones is/are going to slip.
soooo
do you think dallas will try to get into the first this year??? im not too sure if i see that happening
by missingthe90s on Mar 31, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions
No, I don't
but I could see them moving up 6-10 spots in the 2nd.
The approximate cost for trading up would be...
for the Raiders #40 pick Dallas would have to part with #51(2nd rd), #117 (4th rd), #156 and #166 (5th rd) using the draft value chart to make the points close.
for the Browns #36 pick Dallas would have to part with #51, #101 (4th rd), #156, #166.
Id like to be smart like that and get the value in those spots, if not I wouldnt mind trading a few away for next years draft.
I hope we remain patient. Value will be there.
I almost always like that too
But what happens if Jerry lands a stud in the second then another talent at a need position is sitting there in the third? I’m thinking a Eric Wood or Rashad Johnson might look pretty good in the third. So is a backup/potential future starter gaining experience in 09 better than a 3rd and 4th in 2010?
Future starters in 09 are the best
because Wood or Johnson could start if the guy in front of them goes down in 09. They may have a few bumps along the road but our staff could coach them up to play in 09.
Both those guys would be great picks in the 3rd.
I’ve been warming up to Rashad as a possibility lately.
George Teague, Brock Marion, the Roy Williams-of-old: Where are you?
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 31, 2009 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Middle of the D - Most Important
I hope they fill the “up the middle” positions on defense with 4 players. Safety, ILB, and NT. And also hopefully an OL that can develop into a successful LG or LT.
NT, DE and ILB will be difficult
I read (sure bird can read) that there will be ten 3-4 teams next year. Each team will have unique needs but those pluggers will become difficult to find.
Should take it a step further
Q, Bryant, etc are guys that were only starters for one year or so and then were gone so I do not call them keepers.
Yeah...
Raf said above if they start for another team he was labeling them starters.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
As far as this draft goes
I would be happy to get 2 or 3 good rotation players. We don’t have that many open positions because most of the players we lost in free agency we also replaced in free agency. Owens was the only player that we lost that we didn’t replace. The other reason this might be a weak draft is that we pick late and this is somewhat of a weak draft. This could all change however if we decide to trade up. I would assume that we will draft a safety, NT, offensive lineman of some kind, and possibly a WR or a maybe even a development QB late.
we DID replace owens
but we did it last year. roy williams was owens replacement from day one, and everyone knew it… we just didnt know it would be this soon
by missingthe90s on Mar 31, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Look at the last few drafts.
The Boys have been good about landing keepers, even in 06 when Jerry didn’t have a first round pick.
even in 06 when Jerry didn’t have a first round pick
Since Barbie Carpenter is pretty much MIA, I guess you can look at it like we didn’t have a first round pick.
Patriots and Giants are both looking at WR and LB
These two teams met in the SuperBowl the year before and they both have a lot of picks in the top 100. They are primed for longevity, makes me sick. Look to Cleveland, Carolina or New Orleans for a potential trade.
Team Picks Top 100 Avg Pick
New England 12 6 120
Philadelphia 11 4 125
Cincinnati 11 4 142
Dallas 11 2 152
N.Y. Giants 10 5 121
Tennessee 10 3 151
Detroit 9 5 107
Green Bay 9 4 116
Miami 9 4 131
Chicago 9 4 134
Denver 9 3 132
San Francisco 9 3 134
Pittsburgh 9 3 148
Seattle 9 3 149
Houston 8 3 117
Indianapolis 8 3 131
Jacksonville 8 3 132
Arizona 8 3 148
San Diego 8 2 129
Tampa Bay 8 2 156
St. Louis 7 3 104
Buffalo 7 3 113
Atlanta 7 3 113
Kansas City 7 2 136
Oakland 6 3 104
Baltimore 6 3 109
N.Y. Jets 6 3 114
Minnesota 6 3 129
Cleveland 5 3 74
Carolina 5 2 129
Washington 5 2 134
New Orleans 4 1 152
by torchindefenses on Mar 31, 2009 1:29 PM CDT reply actions
Draft
My view is that we should draft the best player available. We do have a need at OLB ,Nose Tackle and DT but take the best player!
don't agree
if the best player available at 55 is a RB or TE are you going to take him?
A TE....
……..maybe. It seems you can never have enough.
I'd go for an elite FB
if there is such a thing, we need something to help get our Running Game in to the realm of ultra-reliable
by AustonianAggie on Mar 31, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
The point....
…..that seems to be escaping you is that you don’t pick for need. You take the best player available. The Cowboys have said they have no needs that would cause them to reach in the draft. When you pick based on need you end up taking players who aren’t worthy of the pick.
Trust me, Jason Witten was a third round pick, if another guy like that was available in the third round you take no matter how many TEs you have on the roster. You can never have enough.
I understand what you're saying...
..and agree for the most part, but, it seems foolish to stock up in either a RB or TE since we had such success last year in getting GREAT backups/potential starters. They should, IMO, use it on a position with some instability, so to speak, to groom for the upcoming year(s).
Hooah.
What would you do with a third tightend though?
I understand what your saying, but if you get an ultra talented tightend or runningback, who are you keeping off the field?
You don’t reach for someone, but then again how many times do you KNOW that a guy is a stud when they fall that far?
If people had known Jason Witten was going to be Jason Witten, I’m guessing Houston doesn’t pick up Bennie Joppru early in the second.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
I would love
for us to bundle a bunch of picks together and move up into the late first round early second round and grab either Brace or Sean Smith. We might get lucky and Brace might still be there at 51 buts its unlikely. Smith however could be gone late in the first round depending on how things play out. I think that he is the most complete safety in this draft and the one most likely to step in and make an impact right away.
Then is has one off field problem (maybe he gets shot by Plexiglass)
and the entire draft is wasted. Hershall Walker, didn’t work for the Vikes, Ricky Williams didn’t work for Saints, I hope Jerry doesn’t make that move this year.
RAFAEL QUESTION FOR YOU
What is the impact of:
a) the last capped year
b) the uncapped year
c) rumors of a POTENTIAL end of the draft
d) the rookie pay scale
on trading into forward years for picks?
will teams want 2010 draft picks b/c it may be the last draft?
will they be at a premium b/c a rookie pay scale might make them cheap?
what are the structural and strategic considerations for trading into 2010 and 2011??
Draft Jerry 1.0?
Ok, so the good drafts in 1989-1993 are Jimmy Johnson’s…….the bad drafts of 1994-2002 are now derisively referred to as Jerry 1.0…… then the good drafts of 2003-2006 are the Parcells years……and now…..under your ‘logic’ it appears 2007 will be labeled a Jerry Jones draft., 2008 (a great draft) will be a Wade Phillips’ draft and then 2009 will be labeled a Jerry Jones draft if it turns out to be a bad one or, if it is a good draft, will be referred to as Tom Ciskowskii or Wade Phillips draft?
Can we PLEASE simply recognize the fact that ALL of these drafts are Jerry Jones’ drafts and that sometimes he makes better decisions than others? We do a trememdous disservice to Jerry Jones and the Cowboys organization when we start feeding into the media hype nonsense that arbitrarily allocates failure to Jerry Jones and success to someone else.
Notwithstanding the above, your reasoning about drafting multiple players for several years in a row is solid and is the key to building a successful franchise.
by Cowboy Louie on Mar 31, 2009 3:51 PM CDT reply actions
I don't get why...
You simply ignore the fact that almost every single documented source in cowboys history says that Jimmy was calling the shots when he was the head coach of this franchise?
I mean, you’re right, Jerry was involved of course.. but he wasn’t the one who orchestrated the herschel walker trade and Jimmy was the person who called the shots.
I like your posts, I just don’t get why you choose to simply ignore the fact that Jerry was the owner and Jimmy was pulling the strings.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
You have your definitions, I have mine
and I stick by mine.
first off, who ever said, “the good drafts of 2003 and 2006 are the Parcells years?” Parcells had some lousy drafts. ’04 and ’06 and ’07 — where Jeff Ireland still held sway, are on him.
You can recognize what you want. Parcells picked the players when he was here, with one exception. Jimmy picked the players when he was HC. Jerry made the final call from ‘94 through ’02. And he’s going it again. Jerry 2.0 is off to a good start.
Seriously, what’s your beef? You’re splitting hairs to an awfully fine grain here.
One small addition to the '07 Draft crew
would be Deon Anderson. He is a part time starter and at least represents a keeper. I would add him to the list of Spencer, Folk, and maybe Ball.
But this is a minor detail. Raf, your analysis is very strong and insightful as always. I agree with you that getting 4 keepers this year, especially given where we’re drafting, would be a real boon to the franchise. Our two strong drafts in the last five years were all set up with having 2 first rounders. Thats obviously not available this year.
good point on the two first rounders in each of those years...
but we also stole Canty in the 4th, Scandrick in the 5th, Rat in the 7th
This article is realistic – placing the bar high without getting unrealistic about our odds. Having 11 picks – even if they are mostly mid/late rounders – makes it easy to dream of fulfilling many needs. If you give me even 3 solid contributers/starters out of this draft, I’d take it today.
Tar Heels started this college Bball season with one goal in mind - that loss to Kansas in last year's final 4 will make this team all bid-ness!
Any chance
Britton slips into the 2nd. Maybe high 2nd and we trade up? What do you D-nicks think of him? If Flo goes down were screwed. Please dont tell me we slide Davis to LT. We need to groom a LT now!. Draftcountdown has Britton as a 2nd or 3rd rounder but the 5th ranked OT. (I dont get it) I’m thinking maybe he slips just enough. Any thoughts?
Kind of interesting podcast with McShay and Kipper on BSPN (30min)
Kipper says Duke Robinson is falling to 3rd or 4th round. It’s only one guys opinion but that would be nice if the Boys could get him with their 3rd (#69 pick).
Wow. I'd be doing cartwheels if he fell that far.
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
But why is he falling?
If the guy has no work ethic, then we don’t want him. That was my impression of another huge OG in this draft – Herman Johnson.
Did anyone say
why they thought he would drop that far? If he drops to #51, the only way i wouldn’t take him at that spot is if he had been caught in a compromising position with an underage child. Running the ball behind Duke and Flozell could get pretty dammed ugly for the opposition.
You wouldn't be doing that this year anyways.
There can be a very good case that Columbo was the lineman this year.
I like that dude alot, he’s a mean SOB.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
Airforce.....
I agree, Columbo was one of my favorite lineman last year because he showed fire and heart. He made mistakes like all of our lineman but he showed me a lot. I can’t remember the game, but he was in someone’s face last year. It was funny.
He was in someone's face every game
or almost every, often when the camera was on Barber or Romo in the background I’d see Colombo in a defensive player’s face
by AustonianAggie on Apr 1, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Blah thats my bad.
I don’t know why I was thinking about Phil Loadholt the entire time.
I love D. Robinson there Jevans.
I should have caught that sooner.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
It's Kipper
Dude is peddling his product. Duke will be the first or second OG taken. It’s unlikely that he would fall that far. You don’t think the Steelers would suck him up at the bottom of the second?
Yep.
Pittsburg also will probably be looking at corner, ILB, or tackle.
Most mocks have them taking an OT.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
Draft
Still think you take the best available even if it is a TE or RB. You can never have enough good players at any position.
Well the cowboys only put about 150, 120 players on their board
there are 300 draftable players – they only rate players who will fit in with what they are trying to do
by AustonianAggie on Apr 1, 2009 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Ok...
But what do you do if you get the best RB or TE?
IMO if you draft a TE than you’re basiclly saying that Matellus Bennett isn’t good enough.
You’re not drafting a tightend to replace Witten, he’s still pretty young.
And at runningback..if there is a good enough runningback that Dallas would even consider taking them, then someone would be willing to trade up from that spot.
But this is all just fantasy, more then likely there isn’t a player a runningback or tightend that would be in that spot that would be higher rated then the other positions.
Not with Cleveland having two picks and Buffalo needing a tightend desperatly.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
Who was it that said:
“You can draft for need, just don’t reach for need.” I think that’s good advice. The Cowboys have lots of holes, but I’m pretty confident that they can find a good linebacker or two after round two. Now, safety….yikes.
Free Frank Catalanotto
I agree
and if they follow their draft board like A.Aggie suggests they should get the best player at a need when they pick. We may not get the best player on the board, but at 51 unless someone just falls off a cliff, there shouldn’t be that much of a talent pool left. That is why it is so important for the Scouting Dept to have their ducks in a row.
When did I become a Cowboy fan? When my mom told me I was.
The draft is like a box of chocolates
Even after it is over, you still don’t know what you got, and may not know for 2-3 years. The 1985 draft—not shown above—is a good example. For a few years following that draft it was best remembered for the WR they were poised to take at selection #17, until San Francisco jumped ahead of them via a trade with the Patriots. With that pick, the 49ers nabbed the third WR taken in the first round. The first WR selected was Al Toon, by the Jets at #10. The second was Eddie Brown, by the Bengals at #13. Both Brown and Toon went on to have pretty good NFL careers, but nothing compared to that player the Cowboys were ready to draft—Jerry Rice.
The Cowboys’ selections consisted of such forgettable names as DE Kevin Brooks (whom they selected with that 17th pick), LB Jesse Penn, OG Crawford Ker, RB Robert Lavette, and the list goes on…. But in the fifth round, with pick #114 overall, they drafted a well known running back out of Georgia by the name of Hershel Walker. Walker, of course, indirectly became the foundation for three Super Bowl championships.
Hershel Walker also made both Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson think they were better at coaching and GM’ing than they really were.
Walker and Vikings GM Mike Lynn, of course...
"Oh... Oh, that's giving me a clue. Yeah, ye-yeah, I've got a raging clue right now." Hardly Boy 2 South Park episode, "The Mystery of the Urinal Deuce"
I was StarStruck at TBB/BSR, now...
Well said.
Although I don’t really agree with that last comment.
Getting alot of picks was one thing, but you still have to make the right ones.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
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