FanPost

Hitting Raf's 4 Keepers in the draft: How successful have late draft picks been?

In the upcoming draft, Dallas has 2 fourth rounders, 3 fifth rounders, 2 sixth and 2 seventh round picks.   It got me wondering just how effective we've been with these later round picks?

Lets look at the current roster:

4th Round Picks

  • Marion Barber
  • Brady James
  • Tashard Choice
  • Doug Free
  • Stanback
5th Round
  • Scandrick
  • Watkins
6th Round
  • Deon Anderson
  • Nick Folk
7th Round
  • Ratliff
  • Crayton
  • Ball
  • Brown
  • McQuistan

We've had success with fourth rounders.  In addition to the nice list thats on the team now, you can also add Chris Canty.  We seem to have a realistic shot of getting a contributor or two with our 2 fourth rounders.

Outside of Scandrick last year, we've been rather pathetic with our 5th rounders.  That is not good considering we've got 3 of those picks this year.   Consider it unlikely that we get a keeper from these three picks.

Our 6th rounders have been only slightly better.  Nick Folk was the first kicker off the board his year.  He appears to be a long term answer to our kicker positions.  But among position players, only Deon Anderson was a 6th rounder.  Consider it unlikely again that we find a keeper from these 2 picks.

We've had some success with 7th rounders, with pro bowler Jay Ratliff and starter Crayton.  Three other roster spots are filled with 7th rounders, though its unclear if all will remain with the team once the season starts.  Beyond these guys, we've also recently drafted vets Jacque Reeves and Nate Jones in the 7th.   Based on our history, we might get 1 keeper from our 2 7ths.

 

If we are going to have a successful draft, and by that it means 4 keepers, as elaborated by Rafael, here is a not unlikely path:

Hit on our 2nd and 3rd.  There is significant risk of this occurring, however.  Hit on 1 4th and 1 7th.   With luck, the odds of a 5/6 hitting will offset the odds of a 2/3 not hitting.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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