Hitting Raf's 4 Keepers in the draft: How successful have late draft picks been?
by Ridgelake on Apr 23, 2009 8:42 PM CDT
10 comments
In the upcoming draft, Dallas has 2 fourth rounders, 3 fifth rounders, 2 sixth and 2 seventh round picks. It got me wondering just how effective we've been with these later round picks?
Lets look at the current roster:
4th Round Picks
- Marion Barber
- Brady James
- Tashard Choice
- Doug Free
- Stanback
- Scandrick
- Watkins
- Deon Anderson
- Nick Folk
- Ratliff
- Crayton
- Ball
- Brown
- McQuistan
We've had success with fourth rounders. In addition to the nice list thats on the team now, you can also add Chris Canty. We seem to have a realistic shot of getting a contributor or two with our 2 fourth rounders.
Outside of Scandrick last year, we've been rather pathetic with our 5th rounders. That is not good considering we've got 3 of those picks this year. Consider it unlikely that we get a keeper from these three picks.
Our 6th rounders have been only slightly better. Nick Folk was the first kicker off the board his year. He appears to be a long term answer to our kicker positions. But among position players, only Deon Anderson was a 6th rounder. Consider it unlikely again that we find a keeper from these 2 picks.
We've had some success with 7th rounders, with pro bowler Jay Ratliff and starter Crayton. Three other roster spots are filled with 7th rounders, though its unclear if all will remain with the team once the season starts. Beyond these guys, we've also recently drafted vets Jacque Reeves and Nate Jones in the 7th. Based on our history, we might get 1 keeper from our 2 7ths.
If we are going to have a successful draft, and by that it means 4 keepers, as elaborated by Rafael, here is a not unlikely path:
Hit on our 2nd and 3rd. There is significant risk of this occurring, however. Hit on 1 4th and 1 7th. With luck, the odds of a 5/6 hitting will offset the odds of a 2/3 not hitting.
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Don't forget the UFAs
Romo, Austin, Bowen, Hurd, Proctor
Agree, the UFAs are critical for us.
But I didn’t list them as we didnt draft them. We obviously evaluated them (correctly) but didnt draft them.
I've been told the bottom of the board works like this:
They put around 110 guys on their board, and when the seven rounds are over, they pursue
the handful of guys that are still up there. That’s how they got Romo, who had a 5th round grade his year, but fell through the seven rounds.
Just because they’re UFAs does not mean they didn’t have initial value on the big board.
the fact is that the majority
of a team’s roster is comprised of players that are either drafted in the middle rounds or UDFA.
The teams that really have the most success are the ones that hit on those players and not necessarily the 1st or 2nd rd guys.
In Romo we Trust
Troy, Emmitt, Michael
All #1’s
When you have a high #1, you HAVE to hit on it. Those are the players you can build a dynasty around. Especially in a salary capped model, where big money to high draft choices who bust on you, is a deathblow.
Roy Williams
Marcus Spears
Bobby Carpenter
Anthony Spencer
Four number 1’s who haven’t played up to their draft grade or salary.
I like the stories about the Colston’s and Ratliff’s of the world, but drafting in the early 20’s every year means that you are mired in mediocrity, despite any success you might have with late round gems or UDFA’s.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
not true
Steelers have drafted consistently in the 20’s most of this decade and have 2 SB titles to show for it.
It you have a good scouting dept and follow your board, it doesn’t matter where you draft.
I could have said the same thing about Polian and the Colts as well.
In Romo we Trust
I have no doubt that Ben Rothelesberger is the reason the Steelers won 2 SBs
and that required a 6-10 year from the Steelers to draft him
by AustonianAggie on Apr 24, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, yeah, but not all my himself
2004 Draft – QB Roethlisberger
2005 Draft – TE Miller
2006 Draft – WR Holmes
Roethlisberger wasn't the reason
Their defense was the reason and actually the Steelers won SB XL in spite of Roethlisberger’s horrid performance in that game, once again because of their spectacular defense.
In Romo we Trust
They probably would not have made it
to the super bowl without Roethlisberger. He did not have big numbers that year but he was very efficient and did some romoesque type stuff to get them into the playoffs. But I essentially agree a great defense (and a very good QB) is my favorite recipe for a super bowl.
We have the qb but we really need a better defense still. Even with our offense hurting last year with injuries we were still in every game save for philly which I could not watch.
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