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The Dirty Dozen (Part Deux) - Predictions

Like most of you, I was not happy with this draft.  Ok, I'll admit it, I was enraged.  But after a 24 hour cool down period in which I have since read all the reviews and scouting report, watched the presser, listened to the radio talk shows, and watched the highlight videos on these guys ... I still don't like it.  It's probably not as bad as my initial reaction, but I think there will be lots of 'misses' from this draft.  So, I will post my prediction of this draft class and I would like to hear what Cowboys Nation thinks as well:

How many of the Dirty Dozen make the squad?

I'll guess ten.  The back of our roster is very thin.  The two I think wont make the team are Hodge and Manny Johnson.  UDFA Kevin Ogletree has a better chance of making the team than Johnson, especially if he can returns kicks and/or punts.

How many of the Dirty Dozen contribute this season?

I'll guess three.  My most lkely candidates are Jason Williams on special teams and in the nickle LB position, Hamlin could see some significant time at free safety, and Buehler as the kickoff specialist.

How many of the Dirty Dozen will be with the team in 5 years?

I'll say three again.  J. Williams gets some recognition and leaves in free agency similar to Kevin Burnett.  Brewster spends three years as a back-up and is replaced by someone younger.  McGee progresses nicely and is about to become the starter in 5 years.  Butler/B Williams - One fizzles out and the other is a nice back-up OLB piece.  The team realizes keeping Beuhler as a KO specialist isnt worth the roster spot and he moves on.  I think one of the three DBs (Smith, Mickens, and Hamlin) will turn into a starter on this team.  Just waiting to find out which one.

Will any of the Dirty Dozen ever make a Pro Bowl?

No.  If anyone has a chance, its one of the three DBs I mention above.

Will this draft class be considered a success in 3 - 5 years?

No.  There are a few usable pieces in there, but no one to make this draft a success. 

 

Ok, Cowboys fans ... what say you?

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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TCB

You are normally a lot better than this. As I said yesterday, this is not a glamour draft and I too was not jumping for joy at the appoach. A closer look shows a number of good players. Maybe not next year , but your three year time frame should show contributions by a number of these players. The improvement to the special teams should get us an extra win or two. I’m sure a number of players won’t make it. That too is normal. Wait until TC to write off the entire draft . These are the same guys who got the players last year. Did they go senile in one season.

by oldboysfan on Apr 27, 2009 4:19 PM CDT reply actions  

how many of these guys contribute

will have a lot to do with the health of out starters.

I will say this – one of these olbs is likely going to see some significant time at some point, cause we are not deep there.

by foyesboys on Apr 27, 2009 4:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Am I coming across as overly pessimistic?

I don’t mean to be. I thought I said a lot of positive things as well:

  • 10 players make the squad
  • UDFA Kevin Ogletree has a chance to make the team
  • Hamlin could see significant time at safety this year
  • Jason Williams will be similar to Kevin Burnett, but with excelletn special teams skills. I predicted he leaves in FA, but that must mean he was pretty good
  • One of the DBs could be Pro Bowl quality
  • And best of all … McGee progresses nicely and is our QB of the future

Maybe I feel better about this class than I thought I did. You know, Raf had a post earlier saying that we need four players to come out of this draft. One theory is that Jerry & Cis knew we didnt have the high picks to rely on, so let’s go with quantity to try and find our five. I think that’s a possibility that they found our four.

So, this isnt the draft class I would have taken. I liked Sean Smith at 51. Then we traded back and I would have traded up to the top pick of round 3 to make sure I got Gilbert. Not getting a DLineman is the hardest thing for me to swallow in this draft. I thought we had several reaches (Brewster, Butler, Smith) that we could have taken a round later. Some guys I wouldnt have taken at all (Buehler, Hodge, Johnson.) I just think we didnt set ourselves up as well as we could have. All that said, I believe we got some pieces that will contribute to this team over the next few seasons. How much we will have to wait and see. I’m willing to give them the chance.

by TCBinNYC on Apr 27, 2009 5:36 PM CDT reply actions  

Sorry

This isn’t what I was looking for either and seeing 5bling’s story on what could have been didn’t help either. I may have jumped the gun. Your points are well taken. The high motor , high character guidelines may have been the keys for the picks. I hope that they are all football guys and Jerry and Tom show everybody that the others don’t know sh**.

by oldboysfan on Apr 27, 2009 6:04 PM CDT reply actions  

Wait a minute!

What did I do?

I’m just calling it as I see it.

"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Apr 27, 2009 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

These are projection guys

And I don’t think you’re judging their potential fairly.

by hiafex on Apr 27, 2009 6:07 PM CDT reply actions  

You're seriously underestimating this class

I’ll use a fanpost to go into more details, but this class has a lot more potential in the long run:
- Williams replaces Brookings by next year
- Brewster replaces Kosier/Hollan in 3 years
- McGee replaces Kitna in 2 years
- Butler and/or Williams will become part of the OLB rotation by next year, maybe this year.
- Hamlin and/or Smith become starters next year
- Mickens replaces Ball for the dime CB this year
- Buehler contributes this year as KO specialist & part of coverage team.

Like you, I don’t see Johnson or Phillips making the team.

And all will have an immediate impact on special teams except Brewster.

Very decent draft.

Res firma mitescere nescit

by Fighter15 on Apr 27, 2009 6:53 PM CDT reply actions  

I like Hodge

The pick surprised me, but after finding out more about him I think he fills Davis’ ST’s role and according to our BTB experts, could be a key player for running the Phillips 46 defense.
I think he has a very good chance to stay.

Training Camp '09 = Mega Thunder Dome....80 men enter, 53 men leave.

by APerfectStar on Apr 27, 2009 9:43 PM CDT reply actions  

+1....I think Hodge is a virtual lock....exactly the mold of player they were looking for...(tough, and football savvy)

great recognition skills…uses great angles, and attacks…..and always brings the wood…

If anything…he will be a designated blitzer in 4-6/dime formations, and our new special teams ace….He already has an inside track, as Wade Phillips loves this kid…

by My_2_Cents on Apr 28, 2009 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

5 Years...

Generally speaking, in order to be on the team in 5 years, they will need to be re-signed to a new contract. That means, if you expect them to be re-signed, 5 draft classes between now and then, you don’t believe our talent level will surpass this group’s.

If that’s true, get used to 8-8 records.

"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Apr 27, 2009 9:55 PM CDT reply actions  

He likes to think he is

Or at least that’s what it sounds like.

by hiafex on Apr 28, 2009 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

So were not allowed to offer opinions on this blog anymore?

Red and Black!! Red and Black!! Red and Black!! Congrats boys first time in team history over .500

by aussie_cowboy on Apr 28, 2009 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

no, I was just asking a few questions

He seems to know with certainly that the guys we drafted will suck, I just to know how he knows this already.

If he’s actually a scout with an NFL team, it would make sense because I never really give an opinion on a player until I actually see them play in NFL games. Sure, there are guys I like more than others, but I’m not going to say some college kid will suck before he steps on an NFL field.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Apr 28, 2009 8:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

the actual title "eternal pessimist"

if that was a profession, he’d be a CEO…

by My_2_Cents on Apr 28, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions  

Poor Johnson

extremely biased

Guy was a total clutch player at OU. A lot of times he did in fact look better than Iglesias. I remember his one handed grab against Texas Tech. If I’m not mistaken he caught that with his bum arm. Guy could end up surprising folks. I wouldn’t write him off so quickly.

Epic Fail since 1985

by the red scare on Apr 28, 2009 1:00 AM CDT reply actions  

He's a tough SOB

Suffered a nasty dislocated elbow injury, and he was suited up and playing the next week. He won’t wow you, but he fits the profile of tough WR who does what is asked. It’s going to come down to if he can supplant a guy like Hurd or Stanback.
I wouldn’t write him off, but he’s going to have a tough time making the roster unless one of the guys above him get injured. I’m sure if he doesn’t make our roster, he’ll make it onto another team.

Training Camp '09 = Mega Thunder Dome....80 men enter, 53 men leave.

by APerfectStar on Apr 28, 2009 3:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

You guys know him better than me

Everybody roots for that kind of guy but they usually end up being a good camp story then disappearing. It’s the NFL, not the movie Rudy. Sooner or later the lower talent guys fizzle. Wayne Chrebet stories are few and far between.

by StillHateTheGiants on Apr 28, 2009 7:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't compare him to Chrebet or say he's a Rudy-like player.

He’s 5’11 and 190lbs, and he played for OU for 4 years, that’s a lot of big time college football experience.

It’s not going to be a surprise or a classic underdog story if he wins a spot on an NFL roster.

Training Camp '09 = Mega Thunder Dome....80 men enter, 53 men leave.

by APerfectStar on Apr 28, 2009 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree...the WR Johnson looks good, has decent hands,....but has he ever played special teams ??....answer

NO….

tough to make the squad, unless he really lights it up in camp/preseason…Hurd and his 1.56 million salary will be his target..

by My_2_Cents on Apr 28, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions  

You're right

As a receiver he is going to have to target Hurd’s position and I don’t see Hurd volunteering it.
It should make for a great TC battle. I think that some of the young LB’s and DB’s will make the squad.
The roster churn will bring youth, attitude to TC. If 4 players from this draft contribute in some capacity I think its a success.

by Boyz 2006 on Apr 28, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

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