More Fun With Numbers: Managing the Cowboys' Picks
After reading Jim Vance’s post on draft trades, I blew the dust off of my old outdated NFL draft trade value sheet, and dug out the TI-80 I hadn’t used since statistics class in college. I have since been pacing a rut into my living room floor, unconsciously rattling off numbers like Max Cohen in the movie Pi. Rafael recently mentioned that he would be happy if the Cowboys brought home four players. I personally would prefer five or six, but how exactly do the Cowboys turn 11 selections into 4, or 5, or 6? I suppose the 'Boys could just deal their whole cache of picks to move into the middle of the first, since similar moves have worked so well for other teams in the past. What sequence of moves would put Dallas in the position to get the most value out of this draft?
There are two things you have to keep in mind when reading this post. Firstly, the Cowboys' compensatory selections (172nd and 208th overall) cannot be traded. Burn them into your mind, tattoo them on your arm overtop of where you inked the name of that girl you no longer talk to. Secondly, this post is strictly theoretical. In reality, the Cowboys would have to find a needy and willing trade partner in order to make any moves. All of these proposed trades were drawn up under the assumption that Jerry Jones has either hypnotic power, or extramarital dirt on all of the other owners and GM’s. Ready to play now? Let’s play.
Here are the selections currently held by the Dallas Cowboys:
- 2nd round (51st overall)
- 3rd round (69th overall)
- 4th round (101st, and 117th overall)
- 5th round (156th, 166th, 172nd overall)
- 6th round (197th, 208th overall)
- 7th round (210th, 227th overall) compensatory selections in bold italics.
Scenario One:
- The Cowboys deal picks #51 and #69 to Tennessee for the 30th overall selection.
- The Cowboys package picks #101, #117, #156, and #166 in exchange for the Jets’ 76th overall selection.
- The Cowboys deal picks #197, #210, #227 to Cincinnati for the 179th pick.
Cowboys new draft order: 1st round (30th), 3rd round (76th), 5th round (172nd), 6th round (179th), 6th round (208th)
Total picks: 5
You want Louis Delmas? You can try your luck and hope he falls, or you can just stop screwing around and move up into the tail end of the 1st round and take him. You want Connor Barwin? If you think he will escape the sinister clutches of the evil Professor Belichick at #34, you might be clinically insane. In this scenario, even after packaging 2nd and 3rd rounders, the Cowboys end up with a third rounder (76th) that is only seven slots back from it’s original 3rd rounder (69th). The big problem with this scenario is the middle. I am not a fan of waiting nearly 100 spots (between 76 and 172) to select a player. There is also not a lot left on the back end. However, if the Cowboys have one particular guy in the crosshairs, this may be the way to go.
Scenario Two:
- The Cowboys send picks #51, #101, #197, and #227 to Jacksonville for the 39th selection.
- The Cowboys trade picks # 156, #166, and # 210 to New Orleans for pick # 116.
Cowboys new draft order: 2nd round (39th), 3rd round (69th), 4th round (116th, 117th), 5th round (172nd), 6th round (208th)
Total Picks: 6
This scenario is probably my favorite. Keep this in mind. There are three 3-4 teams in a cluster near the top of the middle third of the second round (Green Bay #41, San Francisco #43, Miami #44). If the Cowboys want to land any of the last elite 3-4 personnel, they had better jump that little bunch of teams. Sitting at #39 would also be a realistic spot to try to land Delmas. This Scenario leaves the Cowboys’ draft thick in the middle, with picks in every round 2-6. Plus, having back to back picks in any round (4th round, #116 and #117) is pretty cool.
Scenario Three:
- The Cowboys trade picks #117, #156, #166, #197, #210, and #227 to Indianapolis for pick #92.
- The Cowboys stand pat with all other selections.
Cowboys new draft order: 2nd round (#51st), 3rd round (69th, 92nd), 4th round (101st), 5th round (172nd) 6th round (208th)
Total Picks: 6
This scenario is about two things. Firstly, the Cowboys would come out of this one with four picks in the top 101. Secondly, the Cowboys would unload everything on the backend with the exception of the two immovable compensatory picks. This is the kind of move to make if you really believe that the talent tails off dramatically after the top 100. Also, Indianapolis is the kind of team that salivates when you start waiving a fistful of late round selections at them, so this one could actually happen.
Remember, this is completely for fun. I know these teams aren’t going to just bend over and take whatever deal we forcefeed them, but it’s fun to dream up these scenarios in your head. Besides, with Terrell Owens gone and the Denver Broncos challenging for the title of “NFL’s Circus”, what the hell else are we going to talk about for the next 21 days?
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43 comments
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Comments
I like scenario 2 and 3...
It gives us leverage and will allow us to fill all the minor holes we have with prospects that are more likely to succeed.
Number 3 might be my favorite. I think the third round has a lot of talented kids this year. This draft is pretty deep and we need to have as many picks in the 2-4th rounds.
by nicholas.rodriguez on Apr 3, 2009 5:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff
But the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is beyond obsolete; It’s ridiculous. Value does not drop nearly as precipitously by recent reckoning.
For instance, under the old chart, the #1 pick was worth twice as much as the #7. That’s a ridiculous notion. It’s worth over 6 times as much as the 1st pick in round 2. The notion that teams would rather have 1 #1 than 6 #33s is laughable.
It’s mostly a question of top-end money, but the discrepancy exists farther down the list as well, as picks flatten in value.
Pro Football Prospectus ‘08 ran a study on the value chart, analyzing each spot by the number of average starts and pro bowl appearances of players drafted there. (Not a flawless method, but a fair one.) Let me give a snapshot of relevant info from their chart:
Round 1 Pick 1: 3000
Round 1 pick 10:2720
Round 1 pick 20:2395
Round 2 Pick 1 1915
Now, let’s skip along to the most relevant Cowboy selections.
Pick #51: 1330
Pick # 69: 1000
Pick #101:560
Pick #117: 425
If we can come to the conclusion that other teams are smart enough to come to the conclusion casual fans have already arrived at (that values are more proportionate on even this rudimentary chart than they are on the old, accepted model) The Cowboys can actually do quite a bit with their accumulation of picks.
Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert
by Conjunction on Apr 3, 2009 5:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lets draft like belicheck does
Instead of wasting tons of picks, i.e.>>
The Cowboys trade picks #117, #156, #166, #197, #210, and #227 to Indianapolis for pick #92
* The Cowboys send picks #51, #101, #197, and #227 to Jacksonville for the 39th selection.
* The Cowboys trade picks # 156, #166, and # 210 to New Orleans for pick # 116.
* The Cowboys send picks #51, #101, #197, and #227 to Jacksonville for the 39th selection.
* The Cowboys trade picks # 156, #166, and # 210 to New Orleans for pick # 116.
why don’t we continue trying to prey on stupid desperate teams who think they’re one player away from contention and turn 3’s into next year’s 2 4’s into 3’s and 5’s into 4’s.
I think it is absolutely retarded to trade 3 picks for 1 let alone 4 picks for 1, or jesus christ you got to be f’n kidding me 6 picks for 1.
Why do the Patriots have so many sweet picks every year? Because they play long-term and use other teams delusions and desperations to their advantage. We can do that and pick up better picks in next years draft while still accomplishing our goal of not bringing 11 rookies to camp
by Chad Hutchinson on Apr 3, 2009 5:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's not like Dallas never does that....
They did that with the Cleveland tradeup for Brady Quinn.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by AirforceBat on Apr 3, 2009 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jerry should try this every year
Unless there is a perfect player, that couldn’t be had later – I mean really special and at a great value relative to the round – you know, somebody like Quincy Carter.
If Delmas is sitting on the board at #51 when the Broncos offer their 2010 first, I think Jerry should take the pick.
Exploit Owner/GMs that are facing a must win season.
by birdness on Apr 3, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly
Think that he does try it every year.
Dallas has a good amount of picks this year, its just overshadowed by the fact that they used a 1st and 3rd for Roy Williams.
They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.
by AirforceBat on Apr 4, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Misinterpretation?
I didn’t read Rafael’s post to mean that Dallas should only make 4 or 5 selections – just that he would be happy if that many made the team and make meaningful contributions. Some trading up may make it more likely that the higher position player will stick, but the other alternative is to make more selections knowing that it is likely that several of them won’t make the team.
I’d like to see about 8 selections made.
by doomsdayreturns on Apr 3, 2009 6:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Nobody hits on every pick of the draft. A 7th round bust isn’t a problem, it’s an expectation.
by birdness on Apr 3, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be more demanding and expect a 7th rounder to have some role
there ought to be pressure on scouts to produce talent from every round. I wouldn’t fire a scout for a bust in the 7th, but 2 consecutive years of 7th round busts would be unacceptable. Probowler Ratliff, Patrick Crayton, Alan Ball, Courtney Brown, Nate Jones, I’m just pointing out the 7th round players who’ve had roles.
by AustonianAggie on Apr 4, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this.
Scenario One:
The Cowboys deal picks #51 and #69 to Tennessee for the 30th overall selection.
The Cowboys package picks #101, #117, #156, and #166 in exchange for the Jets’ 76th overall selection.
Do that and keep these picks #197, #210, #227 and take our luck with a steal.
"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
by Wmillion on Apr 3, 2009 6:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like that scenario
5 picks sounds alright…. i would rather just trade the later for the Jets pick…We would have 6 choices, 3 within the first 76 and we would have flexibility in the second/third round
by nicholas.rodriguez on Apr 4, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
Tennessee won’t do that. Would we?
They need a WR in the worst way and to move from 30 to 51 makes no sense.
Generally, the draft day trades that DO occur are the ones where both teams’ fans feel like they either gave away too much or both think they got a steal. That one is neither of those two.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
by 5Blings on Apr 4, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let the deals come to us
I remember Jimmy Johnson trading a bunch of picks for some DB that never saw the field for us.I also remember Tex Schram getting some real gems in the late rounds of the draft.I’m not a real draftnik but I don’t see a real impact player past the middle of the first round.
I was encouraged by last years draft that Jerry was listening to the scouts and football people instead of trying to make a media splash.
As other posters have suggested this draft is more to upgrade our backups and get players to develop for the future.
We don’t need all these picks but we need to pick and choose our spots.We don’t need to move back for more picks.
Yeah this is like Christmas to the fan and we sure got a lot of presents to open.
by TCB Orange Dino on Apr 3, 2009 6:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
One irrational problem with these scenarios
Jerrah feels lucky in Rd. 4 and unlucky in Rd. 3. With the moves we’ve made in recent years, I bet he would rather have 4th rounders than a 3rd. I remember going into last year’s draft when he said “we WILL get a 4th rounder”.
by JimmyJohnson on Apr 3, 2009 7:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So true!!!
In the last 10 drafts, only Jason Witten has worked out as a good 3rd rounder. But Ciskowski could change all that…
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
by 5Blings on Apr 4, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Darnit Glory,
you reminded me that it is still three weeks away, I had forgotten how long we have left to wait. But I will try to stay positive and think of it as only 21 days away instead of over a month and a half (the last time I thought about how far draft day was).
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
by cowboy78 on Apr 3, 2009 8:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
little off topic, hope I'm not repeating somebodyelse, but guys check this out: the heavies band?
Dallas Cowboys OL band LOL
http://www.myspace.com/freereign
by dcfanz on Apr 3, 2009 9:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
at least it's metal
i’d be worried if they busted out the pan flute
by AustonianAggie on Apr 4, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Training Camp
Carl,
I contributed to Dave and Raf going to training camp. You ought to go with them.
by cottonbowl on Apr 3, 2009 10:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
this all
makes my head hurt, homes.
no math on a friday, ok?
by Joey2zs on Apr 3, 2009 10:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice article Carl,
and nice Pi reference too.
by Luke. on Apr 3, 2009 11:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
if we move up and take the 30th pick im thinking Sean Smith………. anybody eles. that kills 2 birds with one stone
by regaberto on Apr 4, 2009 1:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like his versatility...
He could be in a package playing corner and another package playing safety. If we picked him up he could see the field alot this year
by nicholas.rodriguez on Apr 4, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want another solid pass rusher
opposite D Ware. They plugged holes at safety, inside linebacker, safety, defensive end, and even QB. We need another safety, probably another corner, and a young QB to groom maybe. I’m pretty sure any of those scenarios presented could fill all the holes mentioned.
I seem to be the only one who wants a pass rusher with our first pick, which likely means I’m very wrong to feel this way…
Epic Fail since 1985
by the red scare on Apr 4, 2009 5:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I could go for a pass rusher very high as well
I gave up torture for Lent. Between now and Easter plagiarists will be humanely euthanized.
by Carl Shelton (GloryDayz88) on Apr 4, 2009 6:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
Ellis is primed to be traded on draft day a team that needs a 1-year established pass-rusher. Allows us to move upand still package picks later.
by cow_fanatic on Apr 4, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope not
We need Ellis. Spencer hasn’t shown that he is a legitimate NFL pass rusher (Carp did a better job against Seattle than Spencer did all last year). We know what happens when Ware doesn’t have anybody on the other end.
by JimmyJohnson on Apr 4, 2009 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spencer nailed Eli in his 1st game his rookie year
Still as I’m not doing heavy lifting this year to anticipate the draft, I’d like to see them snag Lawrence Sidbury as a pass rusher. I want then to grab one player who has the talent to exceed the NFL average, while I see many players, even such as Louis Delmas, as being able to meet the NFL average
by AustonianAggie on Apr 4, 2009 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I second Sidbury..
The dude is quick and strong and could push Spencer long term
by nicholas.rodriguez on Apr 4, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Patriots
are in dire need of linebackers, yet they trade Vrabel. He, like Ellis, have something left in their tank but are getting old and Ellis is in the last year of his contract. Go out and draft someone to take his place. What are you going to do when he retires, you are then forced to replace him.
We needed T.O. as well because we have unproven receivers taking his place but they made that call.
by cow_fanatic on Apr 4, 2009 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to get another pass rusher
Which means a DE/OLB prospect.
You can always rotate these guys to keep them fresher in the 4thQ
Right now we’ve only got one sure thing with Ware. Spencer still needs to show he can do it consistently and Ellis is winding down his career. So any chance to upgrade is worth it.
Feb. 27 -- Veteran free agency signing period begins. Trading period begins.
April 25-26 -- NFL Draft
by APerfectStar on Apr 4, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Done Carl
Not that we needed to be any more confused on how to approach this draft, you have to
do the numbers and come up with some possible trades.
I prefer to lean toward TCB’s idea of letting the deals come to us. But, at the same time I can see Indy just drooling over all those low priced late picks.
To make matters worse, the thought of trading for some next years picks kinda gives you that warm fuzzy feeling like having money in the bank ( oops bad example ) You know what I mean.
So , why don’t we keep 51,69,101,117 and our comp picks at 172 and 208 and trade the remaining picks 156.166,197,210 and 227 to Indy for their 2and 3 next year. Indy gets a lot of players this year and a lower salary , we get 4 good picks and 2 for projects and 2 good picks next year.
by oldboysfan on Apr 4, 2009 7:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I like that idea a lot, if the math works out.
I gave up torture for Lent. Between now and Easter plagiarists will be humanely euthanized.
by Carl Shelton (GloryDayz88) on Apr 4, 2009 7:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Player value
for the next year is difficult to judge , but I am sure that Jerry can convince Indy that it is in their best interest . Maybe he could throw Carp into the deal and get more. Indy always needs linebackers.
by oldboysfan on Apr 4, 2009 7:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
option 1 or 2
I would go option 1 if a player with a first rd grade starts to slide, I go with option 2 otherwise to get Delmas.
In Romo we Trust
by Terry on Apr 4, 2009 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Two important things to remember...
There are a few other teams besides us that have 11-12 picks and want to trade them. Two of these teams are wanting LB’s and WR’s.
We also CANNOT trade our compensated picks.
by torchindefenses on Apr 4, 2009 11:59 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Draft choices will likely be traded for future considerations
…since 11 picks won’t make this roster.
Another possibility is how Dallas can use some of these picks to land a player who is currently languishing on an NFL roster right now. For instance, a 3rd string offensive tackle on another team might end up a 2nd stringer on this team. A backup NT, on some team’s roster that is lathering over a WR prospect who dropped in the draft, could be in the rotation and start some games for Dallas against power running teams.
The idea is to find talent and depth and it doesn’t have to come from a 5th round fraft pick.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
by 5Blings on Apr 4, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Jahri Evans
How ‘bout we sign Jahri Evans to an offer sheet?? It’ll cost us a contract and a 4th round pick but could we draft someone as good as him with the 4th?? It’s a crap shoot but it would be worth it. I just don’t know how much of a contract he’d demand.
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
by kameleon_o on Apr 4, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Jarrad Page too.
He’d cost a 7th round pick.
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
by kameleon_o on Apr 4, 2009 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Scratch all that.
Just saw his tender wasn’t an original draft pick compensation. Page got the 2nd round tender too. I don’t know what the hell I was thinking. Jeez…
There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of creatures Chuck Norris has allowed to live.
by kameleon_o on Apr 4, 2009 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good thought
Jerry has no problems with giving picks for players on other rosters but I wonder how the possible lack of salary cap for next year might affect the movement of players already on teams rosters. I had the impression that there has been far less fa movement this year, but that may be wrong.
by oldboysfan on Apr 4, 2009 4:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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