Expectations.

Since the mid-90's, Dallas has done pretty poorly in seasons where the expectations have been high. It's safe to say that Dallas, coming into the 2009 season, will be picked to finish either third or last in the division by the pundits and talking heads. After all, last year’s mediocrity coupled with an arguably lame duck coach and the jettisoning of the offense’s most explosive player makes for an upcoming campaign with a lot of question marks.

When you add in the highly lauded off-season personnel moves by other NFC East teams, the media is already lowering what they perceive to be the ceiling on this Cowboys team. But that could be a good thing. Expectations generally bring some drama with them, just ask the Plaxico-less Giants.

While I am no fan of Dallas’ head coach, the GM, or this past draft haul, there are still some things worth keeping an eye on (and potentially, feeling very good about) for the upcoming season and here are just a few;

OFFENSE

A Different Offense

Much has been made of the release of T.O. in the off season and how it might affect the offense's explosiveness, but what about how it could help Romo accelerate his development as a QB and allow him to do what he does best, namely, get the ball to the open man (rather than THE man, whether he is open or not)? If we observe continued development of ‘Tellus, does that mean we could see a double-TE base offense in Dallas? How tough would it be to stop an offense that sports two TE’s with over 800 yards receiving along with Bash (Barber), Flash (Felix) and Tash (duh) running it down your throat? It goes without saying that the o-line needs to be both healthier and better coached than it was last year. Watching Hudson Houck’s 2nd season as line coach with this group will be interesting. In addition, will an offense, which in all likelihood will have less explosiveness, but possibly a greater ability to methodically move the chains, help win the field position and time of possession battles? It seems reasonable to expect that the ‘O’ will help the ‘D’ perform better over the long haul by simply keeping them off of the field. You have to feel very good about the offense’s ability to develop more consistency and discipline, even if it comes with fewer ESPN Top 10 plays, right?

Running team, passing team or balanced attack?

This offense’s strength now clearly lies in its offensive line (starters, not depth) and its three young, talented running backs. One would expect that Red Ball will change his game plan to accommodate and take advantage of that set of strengths and take the pressure off of Romo to carry the load. Maybe it means he can use the running game as more of a decoy and help Romo take advantage of check-downs and passes to the flat more and more. Or, it could also signal just enough of a re-emergence of the running game to allow Dallas to return to more of a 50/50 pass/run mix rather than throwing it almost 2/3 of the time as they did last season.

Summary: whatever changes occur in training camp, it’s clear that Romo needs to feel like enough has changed so that the opposition doesn’t, to use Tony’s words, "figure out" what Dallas is doing again. A blind man could see his frustration after the Eagles debacle last year. This year, he and Red Ball have to be on the same page on every play. Romo has improvised too often in the past and it oftentimes has led to catastrophic outcomes. Garrett needs to impose more structure on Romo and ensure that he knows what to do and, more importantly, what NOT to do to in every situation. At the same time, Romo needs to take it upon himself to elevate the play of those around him, especially in times of difficulty. Side note: I personally believe that Romo sorely misses David Lee’s guiding hand and that Wade Wilson hasn’t really added much as the QB Coach, but I’ll save that for another post. Regardless, Dallas fans will be looking to see if Romo has learned anything from his history of miscues (especially the fumbles) and whether or not that translates into fewer turnovers and/or negative yardage plays. Don’t discount the value of a backup QB who has passed for 4,000 yards before and still has gas left in his tank. If Romo is out for any period, this offense can still click.

DEFENSE

Turnovers

We’ve all read about how Dallas had the sacks, but not the turnovers, last year. The addition of Gerald Sensabaugh gives Dallas a pair of athletic safeties who can run, cover and tackle. That, coupled with the chance of seeing Ellis, Spencer and Ware on the field at the same time in certain alignments could mean improvement in the area of pass-rush-induced turnovers. Also, after a year of getting more snaps than expected from Jenkins and Scandrick, they should be more comfortable jumping routes and making plays on the ball. The good news is simply this; it would be hard to imagine that we would get FEWER turnovers in 2009 than we got in 2008. The net result should be more short fields, some easy scores and less time on the field for the defense.

Middle Pressure

Dallas has one of the best pure edge rushers in the game in DeMarcus Ware. But what happens when he gets doubled or chipped or simply game-planned out of the picture? Greg Ellis is arguably out of position and on the tail end of an solid, yet unspectacular career. Anthony Spencer has a bunch of question marks surrounding him. Obviously, the front 3 has to win their one-on-one battles. The one major area that Dallas has sorely lacked good performers in, since installing the 3-4, is at the DE spot. Canty, Spears, Hatcher and Bowen have been invisible at times as base Ends. Think about it; when would you ever say that about Ty Warren and Richard Seymour when they are at full strength? Jay Ratliff, for all his high-motor heroics, just cannot continue to play 16 games at NT against the beefiest centers and guards in the NFL. Rotating him with Anderson or Siavii (and maybe sliding him out to DE) will be something that bears close scrutiny. Rat gives up 20-50 pounds every time he goes up against an average guard in the NFC East. His ability to penetrate is stunted by the fact that his job as NT requires him to occupy two blockers and allow the LB’s to flow to the ball. We also saw the middle of the defense wear down late in those awful December games. Seeing how Wade addresses this problem will have a lot to do with our overall defensive performance. All in all, it is clear that getting more pressure and movement out of the front 3 will be critical to Dallas’ ability to get the most out of Ware’s dynamic presence on the edge and control the tempo of games this season.

Summary: Dallas’ defense improved once Wade took over the game management last year, but the front line still wore down late in the season, likely due to Ratliff taking the constant pounding and Tank not being much help. In addition, the lack of penetration from the Ends was once again cause for concern, especially since Spears promised us a big year and Canty seemed poised for a breakout season. The addition of Igor Olshansky (who performed best under Phillips but has been nicked up) and Keith Brooking (also a Phillips guy who can still bring it) should be better fits in Wade’s scheme. One thing to watch will be the play of the secondary, which will continue to be a liability if they have to stay in coverage for too long, but also could be a solid, ball-hawking group if the line can generate more consistent QB harassment in the middle.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicking the Football

McBriar’s return from a broken foot is absolutely a contingency factor when predicting Dallas’ 2009 fortunes. If he has any lingering problems stemming from the injury, so will the Cowboys, in field position. Drafting David Buehler was a surprise to many (including me), but the word is that if he can consistently boot the ball deep into the end zone, he’ll earn a spot for himself as a specialist. I think that could be viewed as a plus. Given Folk’s recent surgery, Buehler is a valuable insurance policy.

Coverage

All these draft picks…you have just got to believe that SOME of them will stick because of their ability to contribute on Specials. Dallas hasn’t had great coverage teams since Joe Avezzano left town (I miss Joe). The new joe, Joe DeCamilis (who I know we all wish a speedy and full recovery to) comes with a solid resume and his hiring suggests that Jerry, Stephen and Wade understood that Bruce Read just wasn’t getting the most out of the talent available to him. Props to the front office on this one! Tell me you can’t wait to see a revitalized group of special teamers on the field who are ready to lay the wood…

Catch and Run

I don’t care who it is. I don’t care if it’s Flash or Scandrick or Newman or Wade Phillips’ daughter, but SOMEBODY OTHER THAN PATRICK CRAYTON needs to be the designated punt return guy. The good news is that it probably doesn’t make sense to have Crayton return punts anymore since Dallas has added a bevy of players with more suddenness and creativity with the ball in their hands. That should help our field position woes, but also, it should finally add some life to a moribund punt return game.

Summary: One has to believe that this is an area whose performance will be improving throughout the year. Explosion, whether it is off of the tee, through the hole or into the opposing ball carrier is what’s needed here. Supposedly, many of the draftees were chosen based upon their ability to compete with and win jobs against the bottom of the roster. Obviously, these guys will need to make a mark on Specials. We’ll also see what kind of a difference the new coach can make.

OVERALL

Two years ago, I said Dallas would go as far as Romo could take them. He led the team to a 13-3 ranking and the top seed in the conference before the team faltered. Last year, I predicted that the key player in Dallas wouldn’t be a player at all, but rather head coach Wade Phillips. While he was able to bring some needed fire and better play when he took over the play calling, ultimately it was defensive lapses (and questions about his ability to hold players accountable) late in the season that kept the team from being able to reach the post-season. This year, it will be the season of... well…I’ll save that for another post. What seems likely is that the offense will be less show and more go while revolving around B.F.T. (I trademarked it, so don’t try anything). The defense will sport a more athletic secondary and some new faces at DE and LB with a focus on generating turnovers and being disciplined in coverage. Special teams should be much improved with new faces in lots of places, not the least of which is the unit's coach.

All things considered, this appears to be a team that IS concerned with chemistry, despite what we’ve heard Jerry say in the past. We should expect to see a more disciplined, better-prepared team in all three phases of the game.

Side note: I would like to see this team formally dedicate the upcoming season to Rich Behm.

Finally, while this is not intended to predict our record or post-season fortunes, there are absolutely some things to look forward to in Dallas as we get closer to training camp and the season. Like it or not, the expectations for 2009 are somewhat lower, but who knows? Maybe that's the best thing that could happen to us…

GO COWBOYS!!