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Cowboys Schedule '09: Shootout City, or it's all in the DC's Hands

Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, and quarterback Kyle Orton are two "shootout potential" opponents the '09 Cowboys will have to face. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

More photos » David Zalubowski - AP

Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, and quarterback Kyle Orton are two "shootout potential" opponents the '09 Cowboys will have to face. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

If Wade Phillips the head coach wants to continue, he's best advised to have a heart-to-heart with his defensive coordinator, some guy named Wade Phillips, because the season will likely ride on DC Wade's skill at game planning and game calling.

The Cowboys schedule offers opportunity, and danger.  Danger, because Dallas will face some of the league's best offenses.  Ten games are up for teams with offenses ranked in the top eleven last year.  Add 14th rated Tampa Bay, which added Kellen Winslow this winter, and the Cowboys will see eleven games against teams rated in the top half.

On the other hand, Dallas has nine games against teams with defenses in the bottom third.  Many of these teams are one and the same:  Dallas' season will likely rise or fall on six games with shootout potential, where the opponents have a top-10 rated offense and a low-rung defense.  These games:

Team Off. Rank Def. Rank Sacks Rank
vs. Saints 1st 23rd 22nd
vs. Broncos 2nd 29th 26th
vs Falcons 6th 24th 11th
vs Packers 8th 20th 25th
vs. Panthers 10th 18th 9th
vs. Chargers 11th 25th 22nd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These teams can all move the ball and score.  Only one of these teams -- Green Bay -- had a losing record, and it was 13-3 the year before. 

I  think a healthy Cowboys offense will be able to rack up yards and points on these teams.  A lot of people waffle on Jason Garrett.  I don't.  I think injuries crippled his team and made him look dumb.  The '07 Cowboys offensive starters lost so few games to injury you could count them on your fingers:  T.O. missed one start; Patrick Crayton missed three and Andre Gurode missed two. That's it.  Last year, Owens, Crayton and the right side of the line -- Gurode, Davis and Colombo -- were the only offensive players who didn't suffer a serious injury or three.

A healthy line and healthy backs and receivers should revive the offense.  That and some weak pass rushes.  Notice how few of these shootout-potential teams have good rushes.  Atlanta ranked high, but John Abraham had half of his team's 33 sacks.  The story was the same in Carolina, where Julius Pepper's 14.5 made up much of the team's 37 total sacks. 

Dallas plays only two teams that can really bring heat, the Eagles and Giants. That means these six key games should come down to Wade Phillips' skill at slowing their offenses down.  Can he keep Drew Brees from going crazy, as he did in '06?  Does he have a book on his old San Diego QB  Phillip Rivers?  Will he expose Matt Ryan as a fluke?  Can he shut Aaron Rogers down the way he did in '08?  Or will Rogers scramble and score on Wade's guys the way he did in '07?

Dallas had the NFL's best rush last year, and the brass gave him more rookie rushers and more safety options.  If the kids can give Demarcus Ware more rush support, and pick off some of the errant throws the rush produces, the Cowboys go back to the post season. 

Will they?  That fate literally rests in DC Wade's hands, in the defensive play sheet he will carry every Sunday. 

HC Wade shouldn't want it any other way.

0 recs  |  Comment 38 comments |

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Great post Raf, I agree 100%

The Cowboys offense when healthy is among the best in the league without question, it’s really not even debatable. You’re absolutely correct in that injuries killed us last season offensively.

The key to our season will be our defense and Wade’s play calling as our DC. I think he’ll be brilliant in that capacity which is why Jerry decided to keep him on as HC.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on May 19, 2009 12:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree about the injuries...

It drives me nuts when people say that injuries are just an excuse. Oh really? Not having a star or critical player, you know, the guys that makes your squad better than another squad, isn’t a reason that games are lost?

Huh.

by danielt on May 19, 2009 12:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Great write up as always Raf!

Injuries really hurt this team last year.

Out of these 6 teams though, only 2 of them make me nervous.

Those that don’t:
Denver-
they just look like a mess. Orton doesn’t worry me, their D is a wreck, we should win this one easily.
SD-
LT seems to be finally slowing down some, Merriman is a question after the injury, Wade knows them inside out and backwards…
Carolina-
As long as Tnew is healthy, we’ll win this one, he shuts down Steve Smith like no one else which lets the rest of the D focus on stopping the run, their D is a sieve against the run and we have an great collection of RB’s.
GB-
Rogers didn’t impress all that much last year. Running game is still questionable. Switching to a new D scheme, and corners are another year older. The Boys should be alright.

Those that do:
The Ain’ts (wtf?)-
That passing attack is outstanding. The 2ndary will need to come to play…this one could easily turn into a shootout, run run run and run some more, do everything possible to keep Brees on the sideline where he can’t hurt us.
Atlanta-
These guys look like the real deal. Turner was beast in the run game and Ryan was outstanding his first year, and I’d expect him to improve. Their pass D wasn’t amazing, but good and they did well against the rush. Will be a tough one.

Go 4-2 against this group and we should be looking pretty good….though I like the ring of 6-0 and its a possibility if Wade gets this D playing the way they did for a good stretch of last year.

by TLCM on May 19, 2009 12:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

On the San Diego point: Rivers appears to be the real deal. I think that offense will be good for years to come, even as LT is phased out. AJ Smith does a good job there of keeping the cupboard stocked.

I’m not saying I’m specifically scared of the Chargers, but I do admire what Smith’s done with the roster.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rodgers didn't impress you ?

64 comp % 4,038 yds 28 tds 13 ints

by 69 on May 19, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, Rodgers appears to be excellent

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

of course staying healthy is critical

i don’t think anyone ever says otherwise. even the best team can be decimated by injuries.

but good teams can weather them better than bad teams. you can’t have stars backing up every position, but good teams have better depth. teams like the patriots have matt cassell (and brady before him) groomed and waiting when their starter goes down. the cowboys had… brad johnson. we knew going into the season that if romo got hurt, the cowboys were screwed. well, romo got hurt and you know the rest of that story. likewise, no one is saying we shouldn’t expect any drop off when a starting OL gets hurt. but the drop off with proctor was precipitous. interestingly, the cowboys did have the depth at RB, then kept running an injured marion barber out there. go figure.

just punting to injuries /is/ an excuse much of the time. bottom line: injuries matter, but they are inevitable. it takes a bit of luck and solid planning and player development to be a winner.

by g8tgod on May 19, 2009 12:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Raf this post comes in at a good time, the time where the speculation about

how the team will do in the win-loss column. Most of the the msm(excluding Jim’s recent piece) has decided to make their assessment based on FA and the Draft moves and will predict the entire season before TC and the preseason. I like your approach, it is not a prediction of how they will do for the entire season, but trying to filter out where the soft spots in the schedule exist, and what needs to be done to get the most out of the potential opportunities for next season.

Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

by cowboy78 on May 19, 2009 12:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good point

Raf, where the heck did the raiders rank, near the bottom on both categories right?

Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

by cowboy78 on May 19, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defense was #27 in YPG, but was middle of the pack based on DVOA, which is probably a more accurate measure. YPG is an unreliable stat in a lot of cases.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We guess is we get to see our old buddy Jeff Garcia in that game

I think he’ll beat out Russell at some point in the season.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

there should be no excuse for losing to KC, Oakland or Seattle

weak in both categories and no pass rushes on those teams.

Dallas loses if they turn the ball over multiple times. Otherwise, it’s that they lost it. They should not lose those three games.

by Rafael Vela on May 19, 2009 1:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure we would've said that about the Rams game before last season

As mentioned above, injuries can play a big role too.

Given the massive turnover in scheme and personnel with the Chiefs, I don’t know how useful it is to judge them based on last year’s offensive and defensive rankings. And with Matt Hasselbeck coming back, I’m sure a Seahawks fan would argue they’ll be as different a team as we were when we swapped Romo back in for Brad Johnson.

I don’t think either team will have a strong defense, but I could see their offenses being reasonably potent.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Romo was hurt in that game....

If hes healthy along with our line i see us winning 10 plus games.

by regaberto on May 19, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Correct, that’s why I said: “As mentioned above, injuries can play a big role too.”

That’s the trouble with predicting wins and losses based on the schedule at this point in the year.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love that article.

I’d love to see the breakdown of how those six teams matched up against top defenses.

Just skimming over the schedule, it looks like Denver struggled against the better defenses, the same with Atlanta.

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.

by AirforceBat on May 19, 2009 1:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The key to these games with high scoring offenses is....

These teams don’t appear to have a good defenses, so running the ball effectively and not turning the ball over should be the receipe for the wins. We don’t want to get into a scoring fest with those teams.

Making thoses teams drive 80 yards consistently will keep the scores down as well. Our special team units will be huge for us this year. We may not have drafted instant starters, but we obtained several guys who can play special teams. An obvious area of weakness for a long time has been upgraded. Playing solid defense and making the opponent drive the length of the field will reduce the scores against us. Our defense was placed on a short field too many times over the last several years and it has made the opponents job easier. I’m excited about the special teams this year.

by T Zig on May 19, 2009 1:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I posted a fanshot on this but coach Decamillis was running the ST portion of practice

that is some amazing dedication to wanting to improve the ST; considering what campo was able to do with our rookie db’s last year it makes me feel better about picking up Sensi from the jags. A guy with campo’s experience on D and Coach Joe’s commitment would not have vouched for a guy that they could not count on.

Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

by cowboy78 on May 19, 2009 2:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

San Diego

Read today that KC Joyner is going to pick SD for Super Bowl based upon his study of metrics and projections for this year. Same with one of the “football outsider” guy.
Can’t speak to what they’re seeing, but I have to think with the return of their existing defensive personnel PLUS Shawne Merriman, SD is likely to have a formidable defense.

by 1-4-06 on May 19, 2009 2:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Weak division, could mean that they could have one of the top two spots in the conference.

I wonder how good they really would be if they could play at home where weather is not much of a factor.

Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!

by cowboy78 on May 19, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm assuming you saw it in Peter King's column?

Aaron Schatz is the F.O. guy who likes them.

As Raf noted above, their defense has seen better days. Merriman coming back will help quite a bit, and Larry English could be the real deal at OLB/DE, we’ll see. Secondary looks average.

Since Wade left, their point of focus seems to have shifted to offense, where they are stacked. The only hole I see on the offensive side of the ball is RT.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looks like white-capped mountains in the distance... I'm guessing New Zealand

Tar Heels = National Champs in Basketball ... #1 in Baseball ... Top 10 this year in Football?

by DalaiLuke on May 19, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Greece

Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey

by Seanrude on May 19, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

with white-caps in the background?

Tar Heels = National Champs in Basketball ... #1 in Baseball ... Top 10 this year in Football?

by DalaiLuke on May 19, 2009 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My guess would be at his computer

searching for pictures on ‘photobucket’.

Red and Black!! Red and Black!! Red and Black!! Congrats boys first time in team history over .500

by aussie_cowboy on May 20, 2009 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO!!

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on May 20, 2009 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raf, enjoyed the write-up very much.

You mentioned the offensive rank, defensive rank and sack rankings by a few teams we will be playing this year. Is there a site available that has the rushing yards between the tackles and outside the tackles and how much those lines weigh and how long those lines have been together? (especially against the teams we play this year) Maybe such a site or information doesn’t exist, just wondering.

I’ve been thinking about your listed sack rankings of teams we will be playing and I think that perhaps teams will try to attack us in a different area this year (rather than SS), assuming that Sensi plays a lot better than RW did and the pressure we get up front on passing plays stays like it did last year.

I’m thinking that much better coverage in our secondary, combined with our pass rush will force teams to run the ball more against us. I know Ratliff is great at getting penetration on passing plays, but how is the man going to hold up against the run should he face constant double teams should teams rush more to attack us. The bigger lines and experience of those lines will be an indicator on how well Ratliff and the inside linebackers will hold up.

I absolutely love Ratliff’s game, but he’s the one person that must not get worn down facing a rushing attack. With the possible focus on attacking us with the run this year because we might have fixed the SS posistion, I’m very concerned about the size of the lines he will face.

by T Zig on May 19, 2009 3:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree on your concern - a worn down Rat / ILBs is our achilles heel

Tar Heels = National Champs in Basketball ... #1 in Baseball ... Top 10 this year in Football?

by DalaiLuke on May 19, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree in principle...

…but what evidence are we seeing that The Rat got worn down last year?

It sounds good and makes philosophical sense to say: “Jay Ratliff is a lighter NT, he needs to be spelled or he’ll be tired out and beat up by the end of the season.”

However, here’s Jay Ratliff’s statistical season breakdown:

Weeks 1-10 (includes bye): 4 sacks, 25 tackles

Weeks 11-16: 3.5 sacks, 26 tackles

Where’s the drop off? I realize these are very crude statistical measures, but to my eyes, Rat held up very well over the course of a full season. I’d love a good backup NT to spell him, but how many teams have good backup NTs? Who is the NT behind Casey Hampton? Jamal Williams?

If we need to spell Rat, we can go to a 4 man line on certain downs and move Spears and Olshansky (or even Ellis) to the DT spots. We are not without options if our NT needs a rest.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I understand what your saying.

Weeks 1-10 he produced 25 tackles

Weeks 11-16 he produced 26 tackles

Statistically speaking no apparent dropoff……
Question is, where were most of those tackles made 1-10 vs. 11-16 compared to line of scrimmage?

I believe Rat will be tested a little more this year than in the past because teams won’t attack SS or play cat and mouse with the SS as much. The contingency plan to spell Rat will be important.

by T Zig on May 19, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This defense is not strong against the run up the middle.

Wade will need a few tricks like run blitzes and 4 man lines to keep the Giants and others from hammering the middle. A stud NT that clogs the middle would be great. But I really liked Wades defense the 2nd half of the season. Now it is even better. Teams that throw the ball a lot will make some plays on this defense but there is a good chance they will pay for it with sacks and turnovers (I hope).

by cowboy1966 on May 19, 2009 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your two ends would be Ware and either Spencer or Ellis, and then the inside DEs would be Spears and Olshansky. Ware basically plays DE on most pass rush downs anyway.

On sure passing downs, we can even get crazy and put Spencer at one of the DT spots, with Ware and Ellis at DEs, and then you’ve got a NYG type of look, where they move guys like Tuck inside on those occasions.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 19, 2009 4:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Like your point, I wonder if any of the coaches ever read BTB, I wish we get "crazy" more often

a good defense will carry the team long ways. We squandered a lots of opportunities last 2-3 years to make a good playoff run, its about time to change that fortune.

by dcfanz on May 19, 2009 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that list of offenses

is a good example why you can’t predict how teams will do before the season starts.Denver with Orton is much less scary than Denver with Cutler. The Panthers have a very old Delhomme at qb, they rely so much on their run game, i think they’re gonna struggle this year with the NFC East on their schedule and a couple good run Ds in the AFC East. Atlanta had a solid offensive year, but they’ve succeeded without Matt Ryan doing much, and that will have to change this year. And personally, I don’t think Green Bay is anything really special.

The Saints and Chargers are two legit offenses for sure, but the rest are kinda questionable.

by foyesboys on May 19, 2009 11:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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