Romo's Defeats

We are in the thick of the off-season, so how about some more meaningless and irrelevant in-depth Tony Romo statistical analysis? The Cowboy signal caller is 27-12 as a starter in the regular season, a winning rate of nearly 70%. In those 27 victories, Romo has performed at an outrageously fantastic level, with passing statistics that simply cannot be matched by another NFL quarterback, living or dead:

893 attempts

603 completions

67.5%

7793 yards

8.73 yards per attempt

64 touchdowns

29 interceptions

That’s an NFL passer rating of 105.1 (according to www.primecomputing.com), for those of you keeping score at home.

In fact, Romo has started just one regular season win in which he completed less than 50% of his passes (14 of 29 in a 37-20 beating of Miami). His accuracy, yards per attempt, and TD to INT ratio are probably the main reasons that the Cowboys have won those 27 starts over the last 2.5 seasons.

Ah, but when Romo is being discussed, it’s not about how unbelievably awesome he’s been in leading the Cowboys to victories 70% of the time; no, the talk usually centers on how No.9 chokes or “is a bum.” So let’s take a look at Romo’s statistical performances in the twelve losses of his career (from left to right, it goes opponent, year, attempts-completions-yards, TDs-INTs, passer rating and fumbles/fumbles lost):

@ Washington’06        36-24-288-2-0                        109.0

vs. New Orleans’06     33-16-249-1-2                        58.8

vs. Philadelphia’06        29-14-149-1-2                        45.5

vs. Detroit’06               32-21-321-2-1                        111.6   4-2

vs. New England’07     29-18-199-2-1                        91.0

vs. Philadelphia’07        36-13-214-0-3                        22.2     2-0

@ Washington’07        16-7-86-0-1                34.9

vs. Washington’08        48-27-300-3-1                        90.7

@ Arizona’08              38-24-321-3-0                        116.1   3-1

@ Pittsburgh’08           36-19-203-1-3                        44.9     1-1

vs. Baltimore’08           42-24-256-2-2                        66.2

vs. Philadelphia’08        39-21-183-0-1                        55.8     2-2

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414 attempts

228 completions

55.1%

2769 yards

6.67 yards per attempt

17 touchdowns

17 interceptions

12 fumbles/6 fumbles lost

Romo’s performance overall in those twelve losses is fairly mediocre, earning just a 72 rating. Of these losses, though, Romo performed very well statistically in five of them.

5 good games: 183-114-62.2%-1429-7.81-12-4 (99.2 rating)

Of these five games, you could realistically claim that Romo was somewhat responsible for just one loss, the 2006 Detroit game. Despite throwing for 321 yards and 2 touchdowns, Romo did fumble four times and commit 3 turnovers, which led to 10 Detroit points and stopped a Dallas drive on the Lions’ eight yard line. But yet, he didn’t negate a interception return for a TD on the game’s first play by Thong, he didn’t muff a punt that led to a Lion touchdown, and he didn’t allow touchdown receptions to former defensive back Mike Furrey and one of the NFL’s all-time busts at WR, Mike Williams.

The other “good Romo” game losses could not have been attributed at all to the quarterback. He didn’t play defense and give up 48 points to the Patriots, he didn’t let Clinton Portis run roughshod and make Jason Campbell look like the second coming of Sonny Jurgensen, he didn’t give up two special teams TDs to Arizona, and of course he didn’t play any role in the Mike Vanderjadgt blocked kick-Sean Taylor return-unsportsmanlike penalty-turned game-winning FG against the Redskins…unless you think maybe he should have tackled Taylor before he made much progress. By the way, in those last two games (Arizona 2008, Washington 2006), Romo led game-tying and potentially game-winning drives at the end of regulation to give the Cowboys prime opportunities to win, only to have the special teams blow it.

That leaves seven losses in which Romo performed poorly statistically. Of these seven games, I do not believe that he could reasonably be held responsible for the New Orleans loss in 2006 (42-17) or the season-ending Redskins loss in 2007, in which many starters were rested and Romo played only a half. I’d contend that Romo’s poor performance did play significant roles in losses to Pittsburgh and Baltimore in 2008 (more so the former than the latter, but the latter nonetheless), and in the three losses to a particular team from the City of Brotherly Love.

What sticks out when looking at Romo’s statistical performances is that each year he lays a giant stinking egg against the Eagles. Take a look at his stats for his three losses when facing the Eagles:

104-48-46.1%-535-5.14-1-6 (41.1 rating)

These are simply terrible numbers, and while it doesn’t help that the Eagles defense has also stymied the Dallas running game each time, or that the Cowboys special teams were outplayed every game, or that Donovan McNabb was consistently competent in these three matchups, the fact is that Romo cannot and should not escape the majority of blame for these specific losses. To be honest, I could see him agreeing with that statement. However, the Eagles defense has traditionally been disastrous for opposing Cowboy quarterbacks. While Hall of Famer Roger Staubach was 13-3 against Philadelphia as a starter (mostly when the Eagles sucked in the seventies), he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, and his passer rating was roughly eight points lower than his career average. Meanwhile, Hall of Famer Troy Aikman hardly ever did well statistically against Philadelphia, and he didn’t even win half of his games against the Eagles. Romo has at least shown the ability to tear apart Jimmy Johnson’s defense, with two spectacular performances in wins in 2007 and 2008 (combined rating of 133.7), so there is some glimmer of hope.

Using this statistical and historical overview, it seems apparent that we can attribute five Dallas Cowboy losses over the last 2.5 seasons directly to the play of Antonio Ramiro Romo. That’s not so bad.

But we also might want to consider the quality of the Cowboys opponents in these defeats. The Cowboys’ 2008 losses with Romo at the helm were against rather impressive opponents: a tough division opponent (Redskins), both conference championship game losers (Baltimore and Philadelphia), the Super Bowl loser (Arizona) and, of course, the 2008 NFL Champion (Pittsburgh). In 2007, Romo lost to the playoff-bound Redskins, the 8-8 Eagles, and a Patriots team that went 16-0; in 2006, he was beaten by the NFC East champs (Philadelphia) and winners of the NFC South (New Orleans). So in truth, the only really bad loss was the season-ending home defeat to the 3-13 Detroit Lions.

Meanwhile, he led the team to wins against playoff teams like the Colts and the Giants (2006), the Super Bowl champion Giants (twice) and Green Bay (2007), and the Eagles and Giants in 2008. Overall, as a starter Romo is 7-8 against playoff teams, which is a record that could stand improvement. 

Speaking of “playoffs,” that’s where the Cowboys really need Romo to start playing well, statistically and otherwise. That is where he has not proved himself, and in fact has suffered humiliating defeats. His statistics and his regular season record may be impressive, but until he answers this question and leads his team to success in the postseason, the legacy of Tony Romo will be decidedly mixed. Only time will tell.