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Cowboys Play the Odds at Wideout

We're hit that moment of post-draft joissance where every team loves its starting lineup.  But are some lineups more set than others?

Let's look at the wide receiver turnover in our own NFC East.   Every team shuffled its receiver deck.  The Cowboys, of course, cut T.O. and slotted Roy WIlliams into the top spot. 

The Giants went one better, dropping both of their '08 starters.  New York's current plan has top pick Hakeem Nicks replacing Plaxico Burress.

The Eagles are hoping lightning strikes twice.  Second-round rookie DeSean Jackson nearly hit 1000 receiving yards as a rookie, ranking second to Denver's Eddie Royal in a ten-deep, second-round class.  This year, they're hoping for similar production from top pick Jeremy Maclin

I've noted in the past that first round receivers are a 50/50 proposition.  They've busted out roughly half the time this decade, the lowest success rate for any position. Even if a receiver turns into a top player, the odds are significantly lower that he will be a top producer right away.

This decade there have been only THREE rookie first-round wideouts who matched Jackson's rookie production.

That's right.  Only three 1st-round rookies drafted since 2000 topped 900 yards.   Can you name them? 

Since 2000, 53 receivers have heard their names called in round one.  Only Tampa Bay's Michael Clayton produced a 1000 yard season out of the box. (And Clayton has been a bust ever since, never coming close to repeating those numbers)   Most big names never came close to 500 rookie yards, much less 1000. Many of them have turned into quality receivers, but it has taken two to three years before they've put their games together.

This means New York is taking a big risk with Nicks.  The Giants are legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but the odds are very low that Nicks can approach the 1000 yards Burress averaged for them.  If New York wants to put much of its post-season hopes on Nick's green shoulders, that's fine with me.

The same is true with the Eagles.  Maclin looks like a great pick, but the Eagles have already defied the odds with Jackson's instant impact.  Joe Banner and Andy Reid should catch the first red eye to Vegas if Maclin can match it. 

I'll take Dallas' plan.  Williams was awful last year, but I have more faith in his chances for a strong '09 than I do in any rookie's. 

Got those three rookie standouts? 

You've got Clayton.   Andre Johnson (976 yards in '03) and Dwayne Bowe (995 in '07) also did the trick.  That's it.

 

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That's what I've been saying for a while.

I’m not saying these rookie wr’s won’t be good, and hell one of them might be the next rookie wonder, but the odds of ALL of them being great or even good isn’t high, certainly in the first year.

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.

by AirforceBat on May 6, 2009 10:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hell yeah

Our receivers are ready to go NOW. I’ll take our guys over anyone else’s in the East.

Jerry Jones could go in his sock, slap you wit a stack of hundreds, then catch you again on the backswing wit 3 Super Bowl rings. So who the hell are you makin' fun of?

by Carl Shelton (GloryDayz88) on May 6, 2009 10:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ya seriously.....

NYG…. Is rolling with Smith, Barden, Hicks,
PHI…… Curtis, Jack, Maclin,
Wash….. Moss, Randle EL, Kelly
Dallas….. Williams, Austin, Crayton….

And not to mention we have the best tightend tandem in the NFL so i say bring it ill guarentee Witten out preforms everybodys number 1’s this year…

by regaberto on May 6, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

c'mon now

Santana Moss is now probably the best WR in the NFC East, luckily his QB is easily one of the worst in the NFC. The Giants must just be sick that Plaxico Burress walks around with an illegal fiream and SHOT HIMSELF IN THE LEG.
There are also some high quality TEs in the NFC East as well… but I do agree that Witten and Bennett are extraordinary. And, I hold out high hopes for Hannah too. I think he’s a gargantuan dude with a ton of athletic ability.

by Joey2zs on May 6, 2009 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will stick to saying Witten outpreforms everybody..

Washingtons Number 1
Santana Moss Stats
2008—1044 yds 79 rec’s
2007—808 yds on 61 rec’s
2006—790 yds on 55 rec’s
Philidelphia’s Number 1
Desean Jackson—- Because Curtis was Injured
2008—912 yds on 62 rec
NYG number 1
Steve Smith
2008—574 yds on 52 rec

Jason Witten
2008—952 yds on 81 rec
2007—1145yds on 96 rec
2006—754yds on 64

Jason Witten in the last three years is the most consistent WR in the NFC East and Since NYG has lost there top 2 recievers and Santana Moss is inconsistant and Injury prone i dont think saying Witten will be the top reciever is that far off. Especially since T.O is gone.

by regaberto on May 6, 2009 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I meant to say reciever not WR

by regaberto on May 6, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

sure

i agree.
Witten, to me, is an anomoly. I don’t get it. To my eyes, the guy is boxy, slow, no wiggle… just very vanilla. He should not be as good as he is. I wonder if he’s a product of something or other… but, he’s played with many QBs and coaches and offensive schemes. I firmly believe that Novacek was a better pass-catching TE, but the numbers prove my eyes wrong.
I wonder what the physically freakish TEs we’ve seen lately would do in Dallas… Gonzalez, Gates, Shockey, Winslow Jr, and that Terrapin who plays for San Fran.

by Joey2zs on May 6, 2009 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the few TE's that can play it both ways.

he’s fast enough to keep them honest and he can stretch the field, but big enough to just cut, turn, and create some space.

Fast enough to deal w/ safeties and strong enough to handle LB’s.

And great hands for his size, so good I still remember one of the few times he DIDN’T catch a ball he should have (Rams game 2 seasons ago, and Romo came back to him for a TD later).

But something similar about him and Novacek, they both just have a “Feel” for finding the open space w/ all those bodies running around—can’t coach that.

by Realist Larry on May 7, 2009 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Witten's got enough shimmy & shake to get open consistently.

He also has some uncanny ability to know where he is on the field—if he needs to drag guys two or three yards to get a first down.

I suppose Cooley would be the best receiving comparison to him in the East. Boss is a bruiser and that Celek guy had some big games for Philly, but he has yet to show he can do it week-in-week-out.

Go Pacquiao!

by Aaron Novinger on May 7, 2009 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

watch him run routes

then you will understand why he is so good. He is big, and has really big think legs, which make him look slow when he runs, but watch his feet and compare to other TEs and you will see he is not that slow. go back to the philly game a couple of years back when his helmet got knocked off and watch him run.

plus he runs great routes, gets low when he makes his cuts and doesn’t waste any steps or movements and that’s why he is able to get separation from safties. he is also big and that comes to his advantage. he easily smokes many of the LBs.

add to that great pair of hands and you got the most complete TE in the game

by CowboysFanatic on May 8, 2009 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Precise route running is lost among many fans, in the NFL it’s the difference from failing to get separation to getting open on a consistent basis.

Witten runs the best routes of any TE in the league, which is why he doesn’t need to be as fast or quick as Gonzo or Gates to get open all the time.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on May 9, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Witten still had a very good season even though he played hurt for a good part of the season.

by jack dein on May 6, 2009 11:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We need to ditch this theory that Santana Moss is a #1

55, 61 and 79 receptions are not #1 numbers

Jason Witten destroyed him in 2007

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Santanna Moss

Is a good receiver but he’ll always be inconsistent.

He’s a burner who gets hurt frequently.

I think if Roy Williams is healthy and determined that he’ll be a more complete receiver.

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.

by AirforceBat on May 8, 2009 7:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i hate to give credit to the eagles and redskins but...

they are arguably on our level, maybe even better reciever wise. The thing that I think seperates the Cowboys is that Romo is much better than the current injury prone McNabb and whoever is QB for Wash.

by Becho on May 7, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alternate Causality
Since 2000, 53 receivers have heard their names called in round one. Not one has produced a 1000 yard season out of the box.

But 1/2 of those 53 were drafted by the Lions. Right?

by JimmyJohnson on May 6, 2009 10:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like the Eagles wideouts

I’d prefer them honestly. If Roy steps up this year and plays like a number one consistently, I’ll be very happy. He hasn’t done that in for over 2 years.

At least we’ve got Witten. Tony will be leaning on him a lot this year, as he should. I think Witten is in for a monster year.

by DoomsdayD75 on May 7, 2009 12:01 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

What Dallas has that Philly doesn't

is immense size at WR position. Dallas easily has the biggest group of WRs, considering Steve Smith is on the Giant’s roster

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mention this because I love run blocking

which I still believe will be Dallas’ bread and butter

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know we're suppose to be focusing on wideouts

but I would hate to cover OUR backs out of the backfield as well.

by Benthere on May 7, 2009 12:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Backs as Receiving Threats

You are so right; start with MBIII who has proven an ability to make great catches over the shoulder or whatever and in the red zone. Felix proved his break away threat anytime he touches the ball . . . Dallas has talent running out of its ears at the skill positions. I just don’t see WR or or ball handling skill position as an issue — the new defense is the key.

by Iowacowboy on May 7, 2009 6:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Im thinking MB3 in the cards game

Red and Black!! Red and Black!! Red and Black!! Congrats boys first time in team history over .500

by aussie_cowboy on May 7, 2009 6:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Felix Jones had two receptions last year

If he doesn’t catch at least 30 this season, something is wrong.

by Rafael Vela on May 7, 2009 12:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

His injury had a big impact last season. I cannot wait to see him healthy and causing defenses to game plan against him. Dallas really missed his speed.

Training Camp '09 = Mega Thunder Dome....80 men enter, 53 men leave.

by APerfectStar on May 7, 2009 12:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A full season with Felix will be like a whole new offense.

It’s crazy to think how much his play will effect the game strategies on that side of the ball. His presence down the stretch will make for an interesting late season run.

Go Pacquiao!

by Aaron Novinger on May 7, 2009 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't even want to imagine Jones playing for a full year

I’m just going to enjoy Felix Jones when ever he gets to play. That dude has ‘it’, whatever lightening bolts and awesome are made of

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I remember 1 play last year that really stood out for me

1st redskins game I believe. Fake toss right to FJ. The end zone camera showed what looked like the entire defense run to their left like kids chasing candy from a broken pinata, leaving Whitten wide open for the eeeeeeasy TD. Just him being on the field should make this O better

by fretman on May 7, 2009 8:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's the key

its the presence of a threat like him. you have to honor it and if you don’t then they will toss him the ball, he will make a big play and then you have to honor it.

by CowboysFanatic on May 8, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Austin is still a very big part of the equation, too

I’m liking the potential for him to do some special things this year, with Roy, Witten, and Bennett. Crayton’s still a very solid third option. I think our passing game is going to be just as potent as it was last year, and even more so if Austin continues to progress. T.O.‘s absence won’t be all that apparent assuming our role players and play makers step up and do their job. Add to that our stable of backs(best in the NFC East, in my humble opinion), I think we’ll be in decent shape to be the best offense in the division, maybe even the conference.

A little off topic, but I also like the stable of corners and safeties we’re rolling with now. I think our defense should be able to adequately handle the stables of receivers presented by the other teams in the East. The more I evaluate the players we have, and all the talent and depth added through the draft, I’m back to being optimistic about our chances to dominate this season.

Epic Fail since 1985

by the red scare on May 7, 2009 1:26 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not Dominate

But to contend, and to play with integrity and consistency. Good fundamentals, low turnovers and low penalties. This team just needs to return to basic smash mouth football and use its entire roster to make sure old guys like Flo stay healthy. I love the new talent and the exit of the malcontents. Win lose or draw, the new team is going to more enjoyable . . . no more stupid head TO mugging for the cameras all game and all season long.

by Iowacowboy on May 7, 2009 6:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michael Clayton went for 80, 1,193, 7 TDs as a rookie 1st rounder.

Also, not a first rounder, but 2nd rounder, Anquan Boldin had almost 1400 yards as a rookie, with Larry Fitzgerald as their first rounder that year. If NYG goes with 2 rookie starters, one of them very likely goes over a thousand.

I expect Jackson to have 1,200+ this year with a year of experience under his belt, and will likely be the best WR in the division. I hope Roy proves me wrong, though.

by Baked Potato Soup on May 7, 2009 1:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My bad.

Fitzgerald didn’t join Boldin until 2004.

by Baked Potato Soup on May 7, 2009 2:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

eh it's the eagles

I don’t expect their rookies to have linear progressions up, they tend to take weird routes, except for Westbrooke and McNabb

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

RRRRRrrrrr

I researched this and looked at a stat line that cut out Clayton’s rookie year.

Still, one 1000 receiver in the decade is small, small odds.

I think Jackson will continue to be good. Good receivers get even better in year two. I’m not sold on the Giants’ wideouts until they prove it. Plaxico’s career best in New York was just under 1100, I think. It’s
not like that offense produces 1400 or 1500 yard receiving seasons as a matter of course.

by Rafael Vela on May 7, 2009 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you just changed the odds

now, lets add all the 2nd round WRs and their production into the equation. originally 4 out of 53 first rounders achieved over 900 yards….now with boldin and royal, we are about 5 out of about a 100. still the odds say, chances of a WRs breaking 1000 is very very very small.

by CowboysFanatic on May 8, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh hell no

one part of the reason Dallas is so popular – when Dallas was top of the NFL, it was beating up on those nationally relevant cities, NY and Washington, sticking it to the urban elitists

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Enough

aerial armament to complement our running game, which, along with a power defense and revitalized ST, should carry us through December and beyond. We just need Romo to go the distance.

Keep doing what you been doing, keep getting what you been getting.

by OskieOskie on May 7, 2009 7:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Roy Williams really makes me nervous

No science here, I just don’t get a warm fuzzy for his ability to step up and be a legit #1. I’ve got my fingers crossed that he’s not the next Joey Galloway for Dallas.

by StillHateTheGiants on May 7, 2009 8:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

+1 To me, it's the biggest question mark on the team

But initial reports are good. So keeping your fingers crossed is about all you can do…

by Boundforbeach on May 7, 2009 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He wont be as long as Romo stays healthy.

Galloway lost Aikman, if Aikman was throwing him the ball he would have been better.

Williams is going to be better than TO in that he will keep the chains moving and not drop the damned ball so much. I don’t believe he will be scoring TD’s from anywhere on the field like TO but I think he is more of what we need.

by Musiccitynorm on May 7, 2009 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Galloway also lost his ACL

I think that was the bigger problem— he and Rocket both blew out their knees that season.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 7, 2009 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Roy Williams has it

size speed and experience. He’s easily the best WR in the division right now.

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roy Williams will be important....

But to me, Martellus Bennett & Felix Jones can be the difference makers for this offense.

Its scary to think, but Bennett has the physical tools to be even better than Witten (someday, if he puts it all together) I keep thinking back to that TE screen we saw briefly last year, I hope to see more of it, Bennett has the speed to make that scary, not to mention he, like Witten, can stretch the field, and good TE’s create a lot of match up problems for a defense.

Felix, if healthy, can do some very special things as we saw last year. His contribution to kick returns & offense both rushing and in the passing game should be huge. This kid is special.

Roy just needs to be good enough, not TO game breaker good, just enough, move the chains, get close to a 1000 yards and get us some TD"s in the red zone and we’ll be fine.

The big bonus could be Austin. Again, if he’s healthy. If he can legitimately add that deep threat we need, and produce like many of us think he can….that will push this offense over the edge, and we should be very tough to defend.

I like our skill set much better than the rest of the NFC East, between the RB"s TE’s & WR’s we have, if the O-line can open the holes and protect Romo, Dallas will be just fine.

by TLCM on May 7, 2009 10:19 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just to add one more thought....

The running game should be the focus for the offense. Period. End of story.

No one else in the division has a stable of backs like Dallas’, maybe not in the league. If we can stuff the ball down the throats of the teams we face it will open things up for every other skill position player. Force teams to bring an 8th guy in the box to slow down the run and the big plays will be waiting….

by TLCM on May 7, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Yep.

Keep doing what you been doing, keep getting what you been getting.

by OskieOskie on May 7, 2009 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes...

…but in today’s NFL, having a run-focused offense means that you’re running it like 48% of the time. I doubt there was a single team in the league that ran it more than 50% of their offensive snaps last year. It’s a passing era.

I agree that we need to shift our focus more to the run to take some of the burden off Tony and our pass protection unit and to take advantage of our top tier backs, but we’ll still be throwing slightly more than we run. Some of those throws, of course, may look more like a long handoff, in the case of screens to MB3 or Felix.

I’d also like to see our OL do a bit better job at run blocking and creating a push (MB3’s YPC last year was below 4— that’s not good) before I put 100% of my faith in the run game. Hopefully this season they’ll all run block like Columbo did last season.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 7, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

if Dallas can't run more consistently than it's all over anyway

there was to much boom or bust last year. we need 3 yards, then find out if it booms or busts

by AustonianAggie on May 7, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Raf, Great write-ups as usual

Question,

Don’t you think what D. Jackson did for iggles last year was due to the fact that nobody knew him, and defenses would gear up for him better this year (like they did against TO, the bumping him on the line of scrimmage, before he got going). Just asking..

by CDR on May 7, 2009 12:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's the thing

Not to be negative, but I have to ask. The person on our offense that has as much to prove as any player in the NFL is Jason Garrett. Can he utilize all these weapons? Can he use that Ivy League intellect to devise something this league has never seen? Can he just mix it up like he failed to do last year? Can he even make adjustments? Or will he tank, and be responsible for the biggest waste of talent in Cowboy history? This to me, is a more important question than any concerning our players.

Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein.

Joe ThEEsman

by SB Six on May 7, 2009 7:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree

Of the guys on the offensive side of the ball, the onus is certainly on Romo and Garrett this year. The offense has been shaped to be as friendly to them as it can possibly be, and now they’ve gotta deliver and take advantage of all these weapons they’ve got. I think they’ll do well, but sure, it’s fair to say that there’s pressure on them.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 7, 2009 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The guy to watch out for in Philly is not a WR..........

Its Cornielus Ingram. He’s a tight end out of Florida that was drafted in the 4th round this year. But i promise you this guy has serious game. He blew out his knee before last season started and that is the ONLY reason he didn’t get drafted until the 4th round. I live about 30 minutes from gainesville so i saw a ton of gator games and he is the real deal. Remember the name folks, because we will be cussing him for years to come.

by TARHEEL PAUL on May 7, 2009 7:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Florida has top talent at every position. I don think their scheme leads to good TEs.

I dont recall any of their TEs making it in the NFL.

The Democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those willing to work and give to those who would not. Thomas Jefferson

by squidlo97 on May 7, 2009 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whether or not they have put out good tight ends in the past doesn't mean a hill of beans.

I’m not a pro scout, and i may end up being wrong. I hope i am wrong. I hope he sucks ass for philly. But even scouts are saying that the eagles got a steal in the 4th round with him. Just remember the name. Hell, don’t take my word for it. Just go to the eagles blog and read what his own teammates are saying.

by TARHEEL PAUL on May 7, 2009 9:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just looking at him, he is a physical monster, that's for sure

But the guy hasn’t caught a pass in over 16 months, and he has no idea how to block. He’s played almost all of his time at “tight end” split out from the line. To me, he’s a long way from being a reliable contributor— I think the blocking inadequacies will keep him from getting on the field much, and he’s going ot need a lot of field time to polish himself as an NFL receiver after all that time off.

But yeah, with his shirt off the guy looks like David Boston. And he was on that 2007 FLorida Gators national championship b-ball team. I can see where the athletic rep comes from.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 7, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

By the way, that gives the Eagles TWO tight ends who can't block worth spit

Celek and Ingram. For all the talk of the Eagles’ offseason moves heralding a move towards a power running game, I will still only believe it when I see it.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on May 7, 2009 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he'll even be healthy enough to start off the season.

And while I’m sure he’s pretty impressive… why is it that every person who sees someone in person comes away and says “he’s the real deal.”

That wasn’t really at you, I’ve read that alot lately.

I’ll say this, you go to a division one school and you watch most of the big time programs Texas, OU, Florida, Tennessee, etc. etc. etc., and they ALL look impressive.

Kelly Washington(Tennessee Vols) was one of the most physical impressive freaks I’ve ever seen, he alot like Ingram was hurt alot in college and I think he was drafted around the same round wise. Now he’s a special teams guy.

Not saying he won’t be a freak, but I personally still like the fact that they have a combination of him and Maclin than Pettigrew, who would have been able to contribute this year. He’s one of the most complete tightends I’ve ever seen coming out of college.

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time it works, every time.

by AirforceBat on May 8, 2009 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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