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Romo vs. December

Warning! Faster than you can blink or think, December will be upon us. The Cowboys will be on the cusp of securing a playoff spot and nefarious media-conglomorates, deceitful commentators, patently biased op-ed pieces, malicious bloggers and other types of evil-doers will throw the following stats at us:

Romo Carreer Stats (excl. Playoffs)
  Sept-Nov December
Win-Loss 22-4 5-8
Completions in %
66.2 58.9
TD/Int 64/24 14/19
QB Rating
107.3 71.9

 

"They" would have us believe that our fearless commander, our leader of men, our revered pilot to the promised land is nothing but an imposter to the dual thrones of Staubach and Aikman, and is the exclusive reason for our semiregular demise in December.

Not so! Beware of this collection of random facts cloaked as the truth. I have taken it upon myself to examine the facts behind these slanderous and clearly merit-less accusations, identify the primary suspects and render decisive verdicts based solely on the immutable law of the statistical truth.

The facts:

  • The December illness has afflicted the Cowboys for so long, I'm not even sure Romo was born the last time the Cowboys had a winning December in 1996. Since then, they've split December 2-2 only twice (03&07) and even managed zero wins twice (97&02).
  • The last time the Cowboys won a regular season ending game was in 1999 with a 28-18 win over the Giants.
  • Between 97 & 05 the Cowboys managed a winning percentage of 50% in Sept-November (58/115) and 36% in December (16/45). In Romo's three seasons, these numbers were clearly eclipsed with 85% (22/26) and 38% (5/13) respectively.

The suspects:

 

1. The Curse of Flutie: "The Curse of Flutie was born back in the 1999 playoffs when as Buffalo’s then head coach, Wade Phillips, poured all the ingredients for this pigskin pestilence into his steaming brew kettle of bad decisions ... Dallas, meanwhile, made the mistake of hiring Phillips as its head coach in 2007 – unknowingly placing the organization at the mercy of a force more powerful than Jerry Jones: the Curse of Flutie." It is the pure, unadulturated truth! Brought to us courtesy of the Tom Brady apologists at the ColdHardFootballFacts. Look it up here. Verdict: Guilty

2. The evil gnomes in the cellars of the NFL, crunching out lopsided schedules year after year. Look at the stats below - almost half of our games in December are scheduled against teams that make the playoffs in the same season. Evil incarnate!

     How the NFL is stacking the deck against the Cowboys:

Games against same-season playoff participants (2002-2008)

Sept-Nov December
Playoff bound
26 14
Total games
81 31
% 32% 45%

 

Consider also that all the December games in 2007 were against non-playoff participants (DET, PHI, CAR, WAS). No wonder we ended up 13-3! A rare slip-up in the putrid bowels of the NFL. But the scheming number crunchers have outdone themselves for 2009: A manageable first seven games is followed by a fiendishly masterminded final nine, including five divisional games - two against Washington and Philadelphia and one against the Giants - a crisp November road game in Green Bay, and visits from offensive powerhouses San Diego and New Orleans. At least we've got Oakland at home on Thanksgiving. Verdict: Guilty as Sin

3. "The Girlfriend Jinx": While her first official appearance at a Dallas game did not go too well for her hubbie, the statistics on this non-issue are clear. Under Jessica's tender loving care, the Cowboys ended December at 2-2, the first time since 2002.

The Girlfriend Jinx
  "Jessy Jinx" "Carrie Jinx"
Game Dec 16 2007 Dec 25 2006
Score
7-23 6-10
Opp Philly Philly
Passing Yds
214 142
Dec. Record
2-2 2-3

 

Can Jessica really be blamed for Romo's and the Cowboy's meager December record? Only if you are willing to blame Tony for Jessica's atrocious country rock record! I rest my case. Verdict: Not guilty.

4. The Defense: In their feverish fervor, proponents of the Hail Mary School of Football Thinking reflexively blame the defense for any team failings. Not so quick! From 06-08, Dallas scored 28.7 points per game in Sept-Nov Games and 18.4 points in December games. That's a mind-numbing drop of 10 point per game. In contrast, the Cowboys gave up 20.2 ppg in Sept-Nov and 25.7 ppg in December. Verdict: Not guilty by split decision.

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury, I eagerly await your identification and apprehension of further suspects and a swift and decisive verdict.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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I’m not even sure Romo was born the last time the Cowboys had a winning December in 1996.


Are you implying that Romo is a 12 year old?

Eagles fan since December 10, 1995

by Eagles675 on Jun 28, 2009 7:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I actually wrote a diary relating to this a few months ago

When you average the QB ratings for the defenses we played against last year, Romo did a little better than the average QB did against those defenses. So Romo’s December problems last year are overblown, although there is cause for concern. You have to remember the last four defenses we played against were the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Steelers.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 28, 2009 8:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not really.

He did significantly worse against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh than the league average (more than 20% worse QB rating compared to the average against them), slightly better than average against Baltimore(just under 10% better), and way, way, better against the Giants (almost 50% better). So yes, we played some tough Ds last December but he performed worse than the league average against 2 of them, and around league average for one of them. Since he is a much better than average QB, that is definitely troubling.

If you look as his career numbers, he has one game with a QB rating lower than 70 prior to December, the Buffalo game, out of 26 games. In December, he has 8 out of 13 below 70. Additionally, he has 21 out of 26 games with a rating higher than 90 before December, and only 4 out of 13 in December. He is one of the best in the league in the first 3 months, and below average in the last part of the season. That has to get solved for this team to advance. QBs may get too much credit and blame, but there’s no denying that Romo plays significantly worse later in the season.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 28, 2009 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What do you mean not really?

This is what I said.

When you average the QB ratings for the defenses we played against last year, Romo did a little better than the average QB did against those defenses.

I was correct. I did not say he did a little better in each game. If I said that then you would have a point, but I didn’t so you don’t.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 28, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You also said:

So Romo’s December problems last year are overblown

So, in my opinion, which was formed in part by the information in my post, they were not really overblown, but actually quite fair and accurate based on his play.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 12:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think they are overblown...

As much as I think it’s been understated how the rest of the team has been playing in December.

The offensive line has just looked ugg in that month for some reason.

it was weird, I... I mean you probably didn't hear about it because I went under the name of Mike Honcho. But I just wanted you to know that. If you can hear me, if it got into your brain somehow. That I spread my buttcheeks as Mike Honcho.

by AirforceBat on Jun 29, 2009 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Texas Stadium has a hole in the roof so God can watch his favorite team play football.

by iCowboy on Jun 29, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for taking my words out of context, even cutting sentences short

I also said there was cause for concern. Anyhow, conventional wisdom is that Romo crumbles in December. Playing slightly better than the average QB is not crumbling. So they are over blown, but like I said before there is cause for concern because one would expect Romo to play at a higher level.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't take them out of context.

You said that his problems were overblown and I said, not really. How is that out of context? You think it’s overstated how much different his game is in December and I disagree. I also added, in my opinion, since that’s all it is.

His rating dives 32 points from Sept.-Nov. compared to December, and that’s for his career, not just last season. His typical level of play pre-December is exceptionally good. He played to that level against the Giants last year, but then slightly better than average against the Ravens, and worse than average against PHI and PIT. He goes from being an elite, top 3 QB in the first 3 months to mediocre at the end of the season. To me, that’s crumbling.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cutting my sentences short, which excludes qualifying phraces is taking my words out of context

that is the definition.

And now you are taking his QB rating out of context by not adjusting it for the defenses he played against last year.

Moreover, I and most people would consider playing slightly better than average as oppose to very good as regressing, not crumbling. When you say someone crumbles that connotes something completely different than what you are suggesting.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He played worse than average in 2 of the games.

And that was just last year. I cut your sentence short because you expressed 2 different opinions in the same sentence. Since I agreed with one and disagreed with the other, it didn’t make sense to include the whole sentence. I’ll fix it though:

When you average the QB ratings for the defenses we played against last year, Romo did a little better than the average QB did against those defenses. So Romo’s December problems last year are overblown, although there is cause for concern. You have to remember the last four defenses we played against were the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, and Steelers.

I disagree with the part about Romo’s December problems being overblown. Although he played better defenses, he still did significantly worse against 2 of them than the league average, and only slightly better than avg. against the Ravens. Since he is supposed to be an elite QB, it is highly disconcerting that his QB rating drops over 35 points in the month of December compared to the previous 3 months. That is not something that only happened last year, but has been a clear pattern for the past 3 years. If it were a one year thing, I would agree that it may be overblown, but as it has happened for 3 straight years, I think it may even be understated. If your argument is that Romo is merely an average QB and that by that standard he is merely regressing, then I can see your point.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Too bad there are more than two games in december

Otherwise you would have made sense.

And I didn’t express two different opinions, I made a statement but I qualified it. They were part of the same opinion, and if you just post the first part without the second it would misrepresent what I truly believe. Hence you are taking my words out of context.

And my point was that he is not collapsing, as some people like you seem to think, but he is not playing up to his normal standards either.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're being ridiculous.

I disagree with what you said. Are you saying that I do not actually disagree with what you said? Whether you qualified it or not, you said it was overblown. I say, not really, in my opinion. You think it is overblown. I do not think it is overblown.

I made perfect sense. Tony Romo QB rating prior to December = 107.3. Tony Romo rating in December = 71.9. That goes beyond last year, that is for his career.

You seem hung up on him being average against the Ravens and great against the Giants last year. Too bad there are more than 2 games in December and more than 1 year in his career. He plays far worse in December than he does in the first 3 months of the season, regardless of competition. He has 1 game prior to December where his QB rating is lower than 70 in his entire career. He has a rating lower than 70 in 61.5% of his games in December. The average QB rating is somewhere around 80 in the last 10 years or so. So in December, he is below average while being great in other months. If you don’t consider that collapsing, that’s fine. I do. If he went the opposite way, averaging 142.7 QB rating in December, he would be considered one of the best of all time, so when he does the opposite, I consider that a collapse.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1000000000

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 29, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay...

But this thread is about Romo, isn’t it? So we are discussing his part in the team’s collapse. And it is a large one.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Baked...you look at things so black and white...taking things too literal...

Yes the thread is about Romo, but you can still address other issues/factors when trying to explain/analyze Romo, right? The world is filled more with grey than just black and white.

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 29, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

That’s why I pointed out that more than half of Romo’s career sacks have been in December. There are more reasons than just Romo for the team’s problems in December, but I think his play is one of the biggies.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think so.

I took your post about the team collapsing as implying that I was trying to blame Romo alone for the team’s misfortunes in December, since I have focused on Romo in this thread. I was pointing out that since this thread is titled Romo vs. December, it seemed the right place to do so. You then said that there are other factors besides just Romo and I agreed with you and cited where I brought the sack stat into the conversation. I’m not arguing that Romo is solely responsible for the team’s woes. I’m saying that he is largely responsible for them, though.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is clearly where we disagree...

I believe Romo is partly responsible…not “largely” responsible.

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 29, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

romo didnt lose the last game 44-6

that took the whole team giving up and giving up big. i almost left my own BBQ

by mutombo4life on Jun 30, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jul 1, 2009 7:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You would have a point with this line except...
Too bad there are more than 2 games in December and more than 1 year in his career.

It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. I said:

When you average the QB ratings for the defenses we played against last year, Romo did a little better than the average QB did against those defenses.

So yes I understand Romo played poorly in two of those games. But in statistics you average a group of numbers to elucidate the standard for a certain cohort of numbers. Romo’s overall standard for December of last year was a little better than average based on his average play.

So when people make these ridiculous statements that Romo chokes, collapses, crumbles, whatever in December it is overblown because he is playing a little better than average in December. Do I think he played less than what he is capable of? Of course. Romo is an elite QB and is capable of playing at that level, but I don’t think he implodes in December. Now that is ridiculous.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

The team was collapsing around him so obviously his play and numbers are going to be directly affected as a result.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 29, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

to a certain extent I agree

but basically the blame for our team’s ills shouldn’t be on Romo’s shoulders. We should still be able to win with the way Romo was playing.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other teams seem to be able to...

ahem…look at the Steelers and Cardinals…what did their QB’s do?

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 29, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And I'm saying that it goes beyond last year.

And I also once again say that if your point is that Romo is just an average quarterback, so his huge drop in stats is not unusual, but actually him regressing to what is typical for him, then I concede the point. I don’t agree, but I definitely see how you could make that argument. I mean, is the guy a good/great QB or just an average one?

You and I clearly have a different definition of implosion, because I believe that a QB rating 35 points lower in December for your career is a clear indicator of implosion, collapse, or whatever you want to call it in that month. You point out that facing NFC East foes, he faces some of the toughest defenses in the league. I counter that he plays those teams twice a year, and has never had a QB rating below 70 against any of them in Sept.-Nov., but has done that in 5 out of 6 games against division opponents in December. You might not call that collapsing, but I sure do.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could argue, though, that this is

the math of small numbers. Romo has had only 2 1/2 seasons of starting to establish these “facts”, be they good or bad. When you have this little data to work with, you can’t draw many conclusions from them. It’s hard enough to do for a whole career, let alone 39 games, only a fraction of which take place in December.

I could – and have – argue that the Dallas line is what fades in December. Raf has pointed out that not only have Romo’s numbers decreased, but so have rushing numbers, while sacks and hurries have risen. And yet, i’d hesitate to lay it on them because maybe play-calling plays a bigger role. Garrett is a throw first guy. Maybe that works poorly in December, when it’s too late to change the team’s personality. Or maybe each year the problems have been different. Romo certainly played pretty well in the Seattle game. The Dallas O-line was terrible in the Giants’ loss. Romo was hurt for most of December last year. None of these might be real reasons, but any of them could be.

Long way to say, except in the rush-to-judge media, it’s way too early to call this one.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 29, 2009 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

It is a rather small sample set to draw any definitive conclusion. I think to get a clearer picture (for the time being) is to look at quantitative AND qualitative analysis. I’ve seen every NFL game Romo has ever played, and perhaps I see him differently than everyone else, I feel more optimistic about his ability than most. What I see is that when he is on the field, the rest of the team believes they can win the game even if they are down 21 points. How do you quantify that?

The maddening thing about the Boys (as you have alluded to…) is that there is a myriad of possibilities for their failures in the playoffs. It would be nice to have one or two things to point to, so you can go fix it. I think they’ve made some good steps this off season…addressing the ST’s with Joe D…bolstering the secondary by adding adding and tweaking payers…improved team chemistry by jettisoning some bad elements…and stressing better ball protection and penalty prevention.

We may bomb this season, but I can’t say that I disagree with any moves made so far…I think we did everything reasonably available to us to improve…

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 29, 2009 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a small data set,

But it’s what we have. You can say it’s too early to draw conclusions, but I think a clear pattern has formed. That doesn’t mean that he can’t improve or change the pattern, just that the numbers thus far show a clear trend.

I’m in no way saying that because that is what he has done in the past that is what he must always do. I’m saying that that is what he has done in the past. Until he shows that he can break the pattern, it makes sense to me that people expect him to continue to do the same.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well not a clear trend

best case for your argument, an apparent trend, I could argue that when you have O-linemen this big they wear down by December and performance goes down. And given other metrics (YPC, sacks, pressures) I’d have as good or better a trend. And yet, I’m not sure I’d be any more accurate.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 29, 2009 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you get time,

Show me the yards per carry one. I think ypc dropped off in 2007, but not in 2006 or 2008.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am drawing from memory of a post Raf did.

His point I believe was one of offensive melt down in general.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 29, 2009 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm watching a replay of last season's

MNF game against Philly. While McNabb sat back and had all day, Romo was almost constantly under pressure. There aren’t any good stats for that, but boy what a contrast. This is a factor that I think virtually everyone in the sports media ignores.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 29, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait until the 2nd half.

I mean, McNabb was sacked 4 times and had to run 5 times in that game. They must have been pressuring him at some point.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not trying to argue.

I just remember how frustrated I was that game that they couldn’t get him down, so I know they got some pressure on him.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It got a little better, but I'm telling you

it looks just like the second Giants game. Yeah, the defense went after Eli, but Romo got about 2 seconds to make a decision and unload the ball. This is to me a “hidden stat” that merits some thought. We saw what other, lesser QBs could accomplish with this line.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 29, 2009 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

early in the year

I thought our defense was VERY inconsistant prssure wise. Teams have had no problem taking a sack agaist us cause the next play, they could very well have 10 seconds to throw ad complete a third and long. It happened all the time to us.

by foyesboys on Jun 30, 2009 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you trying to piss me off?
And I also once again say that if your point is that Romo is just an average quarterback, so his huge drop in stats is not unusual, but actually him regressing to what is typical for him, then I concede the point.

I clearly said Romo was an elite QB.

So would going from a QB rating of 125 to 90 be an implosion? You just hate putting things in context don’t you?

You point out that facing NFC East foes, he faces some of the toughest defenses in the league. I counter that he plays those teams twice a year, and has never had a QB rating below 70 against any of them in Sept.-Nov., but has done that in 5 out of 6 games against division opponents in December.

And you keep on ignoring the fact that I do see a drop off so what is your point by saying that? If you bothered to post my qualifying phrase from the outset you would understand that.

And you are the only one who thinks going from very good play to just above average play is imploding.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Example please?

Just because I don’t agree with you doesn’t mean that I am dismissing what you wrote. Perhaps you are the one that is having trouble understanding what I have written.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because you made that up.

If you want to attack my argument, then do so, but it’s weak to claim that I don’t understand or misrepresent what other people say. I have the numbers that prove my argument from every angle in this case, and because you have no evidence to support your point, you have resorted to attacking me.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm the only one?

I’m the only person that thinks Romo plays poorly in December? Really? If that were the case, why was this thread started? If that were the case, why does almost every write up about the Cowboys mention Romo’s December problems? Why would you state that his December problems are overblown if I am the only one that thinks they are that bad?

Isn’t your defense of his significant drop off that he has merely regressed? That he has moved back toward the statistical average, and that he plays average against good teams? If he is an elite QB, how is that a defense of his level of play, that he plays about average compared to the rest of the league?

If a quarterback dropped from 125 to 90 for his career, I would consider that a huge drop off, but since the low number is still above average, I would not consider it an implosion. Romo drops from way above average to below average. That’s imploding.

His average rating giving each game equal weight may have been around average against those teams, but his actual rating for the month was 67.89 and the average rating against those 4 teams is 68.4, so he was actually below average against them, even with the outstanding Giants game factored in.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You really need to reread what I wrote before you post
I’m the only person that thinks Romo plays poorly in December?

I did not say that. Reading is fundamental.

Isn’t your defense of his significant drop off that he has merely regressed? That he has moved back toward the statistical average, and that he plays average against good teams? If he is an elite QB, how is that a defense of his level of play, that he plays about average compared to the rest of the league?

And the overall thrust of what I’m arguing is that is play in December is overblown. Moreover, nowhere in that quote does it mention anything about me saying he plays mediocre merely in December, not that he doesn’t play well against good teams because he has on multiple occasions. Stop erecting strawman arguments.

Again you don’t know what average means 68.4 is not an average. That is taking all of his stats in December together regardless of which game those stats come from and calculating a rating from that. That is not an average performance. An average performance would be taking the ratings together then AVERAGING them. That is why it’s called average performance, because you actually average the numbers. What you did had nothing to do with averaging anything, so you are not getting his average performance.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reading is fundamental, so is math.

You are the one that is hung up on average. I said his actual rating, not his average. The average is great because it gives the Giants game more weight than it warrants. Since you don’t like the actual number, let’s go with the median, 61. Hmm, that doesn’t look so hot either. Median is typically considered a better indicator of a data set, particularly when 3 numbers are close and 1 is significantly different.

Have you not been contending all along that his play this past December was not as bad as it seemed because he was around average in respect to those teams? Didn’t you say “When you average the QB ratings for the defenses we played against last year, Romo did a little better than the average QB did against those defenses.”? I assumed that was referring to December since that is what this thread is about.

Didn’t you also say, “Moreover, I and most people would consider playing slightly better than average as oppose to very good as regressing, not crumbling.” That was about December also, wasn’t it? Doesn’t regression mean to trend back toward the average?

I understand your argument. You think that it’s overblown that Romo plays worse in December. And, I disagree that it is overblown. Wait, are you going to try to argue that I’m taking you out of context again?

It’s obvious we’re not going to agree, so whatever. I think that all the numbers are in my favor, which is why you are so outraged. I’ll agree to disagree. I’ve lined up my evidence and you have lined up yours and I don’t see either of us budging.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why does it give the Giants game more weight than it warrants

why does his performance against the Eagles mean more than his performance against the Giants. That logic makes no sense. Each game should be given equal weight because each matters equally. The way you are doing it gives more weight to a couple of games because he happened to throw a few more passes in them. And the median is only good when you have a large sample set. 1 number still accounts for 25% of the number set. When you are determining outliers one normally sets a 90 or 95% confidence value. 4 numbers is way too small of a set to determine what is an outlier and what isn’t.

you said:


I’m the only person that thinks Romo plays poorly in December?

I said:
Moreover, I and most people would consider playing slightly better than average as oppose to very good as regressing, not crumbling.

My statement says nothing about Romo and it says nothing about playing poorly. Understand? And since most people don’t think Romo is playing slightly better than average but that he is playing poorly your statement is a non sequitur. I was referring to a separate debate of what the definition of crumbling is and it is not going from playing very good to slightly above average.

And the numbers are not in your favor.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 30, 2009 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

BPS not the only one

BPS certainly isn’t the only one who thinks Romo’s play implodes in December. I am also in that camp. Once again, it is important to point out that Romo sets such a high standard through Thanksgiving that when he disintegrates in December it is incredibly frustrating.

BPS has done an outstanding job in this thread of stating his position. I will only add that the subjective factors of Romo’s game also take a turn for the worse in December. I see less Leadership from him – more sulking on the sidelines, etc. I see less fire in his game; perhaps the grind of the NFL season wears him out sooner than most. I see poor decision-making in December, both on and off the field.

However, exclusive of the polarizing and uncompromising opinions of Tex and Terry, our collective opinions of Romo aren’t that different. Most bloggers here believe Romo is the Real Deal and are ready to call him our Franchise QB. There is a minority – myself included – that think Romo has needs to improve upon a few things before we are ready to anoint him, but we are excited by the potential and periodic brilliance he has shown to date.

Most importantly, every single on of us wants Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys to succeed. None of us are haters and we are not narcissistic to the point where we would rather see Romo fail so our opinions turn out to be ‘more correct’ than others. This last point gets lost far too often on this blog. We are all on the same team. Far too often, the tone on this board (my posts included) becomes hostile to the point where differing opinions among Cowboy fans make it seem like we are arguing with our hated (but respected) NFC East brethren.

by Cowboy Louie on Jun 30, 2009 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is where you differ from BPS

Half of your opinions are subjective.

You’re making an opinion on how someone is leading or “fire in their belly.”

Of course you’ll be the same one, that if Romo is yelling at someone coming out of the huddle, you’ll say he’s losing his composure.

If he was having a tea party on the sidelines, wearing goggles, and singing Jimmy Buffet and was winning in December or Playoff games, this whole “leadership” thing wouldn’t be brought up.

it was weird, I... I mean you probably didn't hear about it because I went under the name of Mike Honcho. But I just wanted you to know that. If you can hear me, if it got into your brain somehow. That I spread my buttcheeks as Mike Honcho.

by AirforceBat on Jun 30, 2009 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was some

hilarious imagery.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 30, 2009 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Moreover

If 80 is the average then he played a little above the average in ’06.

Anyhow like I said those stats aren’t corrected for defensive QB ratings. It is entirely possible that Romo has been playing harder defenses the past three years, which in all likelihood is the case sense Romo played 4 top 5 defenses in a row last year and has been playing in the NFC East, where all his opponents has had top 10 or 5 defenses in said division the past three years if I remember correctly. Keeping in mind we usually play two division opponents in December.

Basically the stats you cited are suspect, and should be corrected for the aforementioned variables, which they are not.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, so here are the numbers:

2006 – Romo’s QB rating for 5 games in December was 77.1. The average defensive QB rating for those 5 teams was 83.7. He was below average.

2007 – Romo’s QB rating for December was 70.3. The average defensive QB rating for those 4 teams was 84.8. He was below average.

2008 – Romo’s QB rating for December was 67.9. The average defensive QB rating for those 4 teams was 68.4. He was below average.

Does that properly factor in the variables?

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well first of all Romo's average rating in December last year was 70.15

I’m assuming you are taking all his passing stats together calculating a rating from that. Problem with that it hides Romo’s performance in each game, so if he performed well in one game but threw a few passes less than in a game he did poorly in it will reduce the weight of that game’s performance because he threw a few less passes.

And like I said before I was taking into account Romo’s average play in December. The only way to determine is average play is to give equal weight to all four performances, which your method does not do. But if you average his ratings you will get a more accurate picture of his performance in December that year.

by quincyyyyy on Jun 29, 2009 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, my method hides less.

I gave his actual stats. If he throws 8 passes in a game and has a rating of 158.3, but 35+ passes in the other 3 games, and his rating is 50, are you going to say that his average is a reliable indicator of his overall game play? More reliable indicators would be the actual rating for the month or the median rating for the month. Averages for small data sets are unreliable because one number which is vastly different than the others can skew the entire set. In this instance, his rating in the Giant game causes his average to be higher than his actual rating in any of the other games. That doesn’t seem like a fair or accurate assessment of his actual performance for the month, in my opinion.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you sure youre stats are right?

I doubt Romo’s qb rating in December is actually 7.1.
And btw, your percentages are all wrong aswell.

by aussie_cowboy on Jun 29, 2009 1:32 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The whole post is a little off but brings up a good topic.

His December QB rating is 71.9. The percentages are correct, but the labels are wrong. That should read total games, not games against non-playoff bound teams.

Interesting Romo stat: Total sacks since 2006 – 65; Sacks in December – 33. More than half the sacks against Romo in his career have been in December.

by Baked Potato Soup on Jun 29, 2009 2:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gentlemen, you are both correct

Please accept my humble apologies. The mistakes have been corrected.

by One.Cool.Customer on Jun 29, 2009 2:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

um...

The percentages are still incorrect. Our Sep-Nov % vs playoff teams is actually 24%, and the percentage for Dec is actually 31%.

Other than that though, this is a really good analysis.

by aussie_cowboy on Jun 29, 2009 6:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is a very interesting stat, what does it tell you? It tells me that he is getting a lot more pressure in December, for whatever reason. Maybe the line is playing worse, maybe our offense is becoming predictable, I am not sure but what I am pretty sure about is that the increased pressure is probably contributing to the drop off in the level of his play in December. I would consider that stat to tell a very important story when it relates to Romo’s late season play.

First to six!!!

by sduncan24 on Jun 29, 2009 6:53 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What would you do as OC if you were giving up sacks left and right like that?

Nice stat on the sacks, wasn’t aware of that.

In his two seasons as OC, 57% of the plays Garrett called were pass plays (1078 of 1898). This is only marginally up vs. the NFL 08 average of 55%. In Sept-Nov games Garret called pass plays 55% of the time, in December the pass plays jump to 64%, a rate that only Arizona reached over all 16 games. If your o-line is giving away sacks like there’s no tomorrow, is it the right strategy to emphasize the passing game even more? Either Garret has a secret chapter in his play book only to be opened in December called “The Gunslinger”, or he doesn’t trust the running game down the stretch due to injuries fatigue or whatever.

by One.Cool.Customer on Jun 29, 2009 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not trying to defend Garrett

But those elevated passing plays could be called because we are losing to teams in December, so we’re calling more passing plays to try and put points on the board.

"So you can’t stiff arm at all? What about the throat?"- Marion "Barbarian" Barber

by DC_fan on Jun 29, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dont forget that Tony changes a fair amount of plays at the line of scrimmage too.

When you are angry about something you seem to see it more. I can remember Tony changing running plays to pass plays.

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the goverment from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.

by squidlo97 on Jun 29, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, THIS is a very interesting stat.

Do you think the offensive line has something to do with Romo’s performance? We lost the 2007 playoff game to the Giants because our OL started to fall apart in the 2nd half (after it had dominated in the 1st half…it was bad enough that the Giant’s D linemen made comments about it). In 2008, did all of you see how many hard hits Romo took? In the end, Romo was so banged up that he couldn’t have played the following week even if they had won that Philly game.

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 29, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think that there is any question

that Romo and the team have had terrible problems in December the last 3 years. This is for many different reasons, they’ve lost games in many different and exasperating ways. They have, with the notable exception of the Detroit 2006 game, been against very high-quality teams. Still, a true champion rises to the occasion. They haven’t, not really even once.

And that sack stat is incredibly compelling. Half their sacks come in December?? Man…

by DavidH22 on Jun 29, 2009 7:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

Better Ds and worse blocking. Thats a bad combo for a QB.

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the goverment from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.

by squidlo97 on Jun 29, 2009 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or maybe it is better D's and the SAME blocking

"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Jun 29, 2009 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

/agree

Regardless of what the problem was …
The fact stands, the team needs to rise up and overcome whatever odds are against them.

by fuji1232 on Jun 29, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was a baaddd decision...

To bench Flutie. Hard to understand the logic.

While I like Wade, its also hard to understand the logic of hiring a head coach that has a terrible December record (see KC Joyners analysis in his 2008 Scientific Football) and zero playoff wins — to coach a team that can’t win in December and hasn’t been to the playoffs in over a decade!!

But don’t forget Big Bill couldn’t win in December either. Although I am convinced JJ could have worked his pyschological smarts to get this team over the hump.

But the biggest question: What happens if they finally do win a playoff game? Does the confidence boost take them to the SB? Or does the emotional high lead to a big let-down the following week?

"Where's Woody? - We need another Darren Woodson

by BoyfromOz on Jun 29, 2009 8:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think they are hoping for 2 negatives make a positive.

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the goverment from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.

by squidlo97 on Jun 29, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

We lost a playoff game in SEA

due to ultra-conservative game planning against a team with a secondary of 2nd and 3rd stringers. No way the game should have come down to a last minute FG.

We lost to the NYG because we gave up big plays on D and ST, especially just before half when we dominated TOP. In the 2nd half, we failed to adjust to the best pass rush in the NFL.

I saw this team, this QB, win 3 road NFC East division games 3 weeks in a row. Don’t believe another DC QB, anointed or otherwise, has done the same.

Learning to win is part of the process, just our Championship teams of the 70’s and 90’s did prior to their runs. The window is just so short, I hope we get ours in while we still have the talent

'Kade Out!'

by tdships on Jun 29, 2009 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I diagree with a bad game plan for seattle.

The game plan put us in a position to win at the end of the game. thats what a god game plan does. Their secondary was weak but their pass rush was decent. They were 1 season removed from the SB, a veteran team with a great head coach. they wanted us to attack their DBs. They played them 12-15 yards off the line of scrimmage. You werent getting deep. They gave you the underneath stuff cause they were a ggod tackliung team. We lost because we fumbled. It happens,it happens more to teams struggling to climb out of the pit of losing.
Like you said its learning how to win.

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the goverment from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.

by squidlo97 on Jun 29, 2009 11:08 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

good not god. i dont think God cares who wins a football game, hole in the roof notwithstanding.

I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the goverment from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them.

by squidlo97 on Jun 29, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Seattle playoff game

was lost by Terry Glenn (for fumbling into the end zone for a safety), the officials for the faulty Witten spot of 3rd down, and Roy Williams for letting Shaun Alexander run for 20 yards from their 2-yard line.

Frankly, I’m glad Romo fumbled the FG snap. If everything had instead went well and Dallas led 23-21, you can bet anything that Seattle would have driven downfield (there was what, 70 seconds left?) and positioned themselves for a Josh Brown FG. That would have hurt way more than how they did end up losing. So Romo, in effect, saved us fans a lot of pain and heartache. Thanks Tony!

by DavidH22 on Jun 29, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OR

 it gives you so much momentum you pick off an INT and take it to the next game

by fuji1232 on Jun 29, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Things that everyone agrees with

Defense: Big gaps in secondary and too many 3rd down conversions.

Coaching:
Abandoning the running game is never a good thing as long as Barber has legs.
There is some talented vets on the team, but everyone really needs to be ALL IN this season and give 200% when it comes to practices and showing up to camp, etc.

All translates to bad news for Romo:
He is definitely struggling. It probably has alot to do with playing teams like Ravens/Steelers/Giants in the final weeks + bad defense and having to play from behind + OL giving up sacks. Then there is the pressure thing which is ALL on him, always.

by fuji1232 on Jun 29, 2009 1:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The Cowboys have done everything they can to win a playoff.

The one thing they havent tried is improving the locker room psyche. Thats why they expelled the whiners. There was nothing else left to try. I really think this will have a significant impact.

x

by BlueZombie on Jun 29, 2009 6:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

good stuff

love both your posts, great stats combined with entertaining writing style, i’m late to the party here but keep it up OCC!

by scottmaui on Jun 29, 2009 11:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

How depressing...

I need a drink.

But yeah, wtf? The whole December thing started under Aikman. I wonder if the Cowboys ever feel any difference when they wake up on the morning of December 1st.

2009 Dallas Cowboys: 10-6

by Grady90 on Jun 30, 2009 4:21 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nope

It all started when Romo took his first snap. Up ’til that moment the Cowboys were in every Super Bowl and had no losses in December.What were they thinking???

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 30, 2009 6:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO!

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 30, 2009 8:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I feel you can ignore the stas and boil this down very simply---allow me:

As the season goes on, the more talented and better coached teams rise to the top.

Our team has had less talent than most fans here would like to admit- along with some poor coaching by Parcells and others- and as the season reaches it conclusion, teams are out of excuses, and the cream rises.
     Our team has not been the ‘cream’.

It’s that simple.

You can make excuses based on injuries or nonexistent conspiracy theories in the NFL offices {point 2 in the post is silly-how do they know which teams will make the playoffs THAT season when they do the schedule?!?! They don’t!}

    The best teams win, and the fact that we haven’t won a playoff game in so long or won much in Dec. just means-yes-we haven’t been one of the best teams in the league for over 10 years.

by Realist Larry on Jun 30, 2009 3:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well then, we better start winning some additional Superbowls so that we can be the best team in the NFL.

I for one like how we’ve been building this team and like our chances for the foreseeable future…

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 30, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That remains to be seen, and I certainly hope all the moves work out.

and we do have a lot of good pieces.

But I’m addressing the past 15 years or so, and the facts speak for themselves-no playoff wins.

And forget winning a SB-let’s just hope for a playoff win first.

by Realist Larry on Jun 30, 2009 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I'll stick with an optimistic outlook...

I prefer to look at things with a glass half full, not half empty…that’s my “realism”…

by CaliFanInTx on Jun 30, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aikman's gone

So is every player on the team in 2000 except Flo.

No “fact” from 2000, 1996 or even ’05 is relevant. New players, new coaches, new opponents…nothing is the same, thus no statistic or trend has even remote relevance to what this team will do in ’09.

It's not personal, it's just business

by Fighter15 on Jul 1, 2009 7:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep

Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best.

Last year, our oline was nowhere near as strong as in 07, and when Romo got hurt our offense became pretty mediocre almost immediately. Romo never seemed to have that same precision when he came back. The defense picked up their game,which is why we finished with a winning record. Injuries hurt us more than almost ay other team. Frankly, due to all of the above factors, we weren’t as good as the competition in december (which was admittedly very tough).

In 2007…agree with you there too. I thought we played great, near perfect offensive ball against the giants in the regula season. And to be honest, i thought we needed all those points to win hose games. In the postseason…a bad drop by crayton, a stopped route by crayton, a fumbled punt by crayton when we would’ve been in great feld position had he just caught it and ran 10 yards as always, fasano dropping a td, ROmo overthrowing TO for a td….all those things added up. And, unlike the regular season when the giants were somewhat sloppy against us (for example, i think toomer stepped out of bounds on a td bomb in week 2 that would’ve given them a 14 point lead in the 2nd quarter)..those same things didn’t go wrong for them.

2006, parcells deserves a lot of blame for ou loss to seattle. They had pulled their secondary off the street and he went conservative. That is a team we WERE better than but between his playcalling, the unbelievable glenn fumble and the muffed snap, we hurt ourselves badly.

by foyesboys on Jun 30, 2009 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why, why, why

do you keep crossing things out? You’re killing me.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 30, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why am I getting that crossout?!

And is anyone else having trouble logging on to the site recently?

by Realist Larry on Jun 30, 2009 3:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the crossout occurs

when you set things apart with hyphens If you use—dashes—it shouldn’t cross out

by twistmypepsi on Jun 30, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Noooo!

You’ve just killed a little of the entertainment value for all of us.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Jun 30, 2009 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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