The (mostly stupid) national media has us missing the playoffs, and smarter but still myopic Football Outsiders has us (as usual) at 8-8. Their rationale is that from 2005-2007 Dallas has had really good "injury luck," but we struggled when we had a league average games lost by starters in 2008. The problem is that "games missed by starters" is an imprecise stat. We have about 6 indispensable players (Newman, Romo, Ware, Flozell, Witten, now Ratliff) where the dropoff to backups is huge. Newman missed 8 games and was hobbled in others, Romo missed 3 games but his hand affected his accuracy in others, and Flozell played hurt 1/2 the year.

1) We'll Have Three or Four Position Controversies: With the departure of Jacques Reeves in 08 and Roy Willy in 09, fans will need new players that we love to hate. I predict that Flozell and/or Jenkins will fill this "goat gap." Flozell will draw more penalties (especially holding) this year as he has to compensate for age related decline, and Jenkins will make mental errors in zone coverage and/or miss tackles that will lead to several big plays. Doug Free will start at least two games and acquit himself decently, leading for calls to sit Flozell. I also predict two potentially  mild controversies for two old fan favorites: Barber and Folk. Folk will struggle with distance FG's early and make even shorter attempts an adventure, while David Buehler becomes a fan favorite for making at least two plays on special teams and leads the league in touchback percentage. It will be obvious that Barber, while good, is so intensity reliant that he has a steep productivity dropoff when his usage exceeds 15 touches a game. Meanwhile, Felix Jones will be the 2nd coming of Herschel Walker in 1986. He'll make a dazzling play virtually every week, and it will be obvious that, while fans love Barber like we loved Dorsett, the offense is turbo-charged when Felix enters, and that he's surprisingly good between the tackles. Felix will start at some point as the P.R. Department explains that Barber is "injured, and will be used as a backup" but Barber will refuse comment past "I ain't injured" as Jerry blunders his way into a mini-controversy that could have been avoided if the team admitted that Felix is just better.

2) The Offense Won't Miss TO: While analysts ask how we can replace TO's "38 touchdowns," smart fans will realize that the dominant TO of 07 didn't exist in 08 and definitely doesn't exist now. Meanwhile, Dallas will run a more low-risk offense like the San Diego Chargers, who had the best offense in the NFL last year despite injuries to Gates and LT and whose #1 (Vincent Jackson) caught fewer than 60 balls. Our big plays will be different than our big plays of 07-09: we'll see more catch and runs by the backs, more scheme-related double moves, and more seam passes to Bennett. Romo will not match his fantasy football totals of 07, but Tony will have fewer than 15 turnovers and still throw for 4,000 yards and 30+ TDs. Meanwhile, the new Roy Willy will be the new Leonard Davis: a talented UT underachiever for a bad franchise who steps it up for a winning franchise. Williams will have 900 yards and 8-10 TDs while missing two games, but his chippiness with opposing DBs and the media and first down celebrations will win over most skeptics. Jerry will compare him to Michael Irvin (to wide ridicule), but he at least won't be Joey Galloway. More like Keyshawn Johnson in his prime with a little more vertical ability. Neither Hurd nor Austin will "break out," as they are both chronically injured. If you could combine Hurd's ball skills with Austin's athleticism you'd have an All-Pro; as it is, they are nice complementary players who will struggle to beat elite cover corners.

3) The Defense Will be like the Wade-coached 08 version: sack heavy, turnover low, but Top 8 in the league. This team's defensive bugaboo from 06-08 has been coverage of tight ends and running backs, both of which can be laid at the feet of the strong safety position. Sensabaugh will be average in coverage, but replacing the worst coverage safety with an average one will improve the D like replacing an average one with a great one. Jerry will prompty overpay Sensabaugh next offseason while being the unnamed source when Peter King (wrongfully) writes that "Sensabaugh should've made the Pro Bowl." In reality, the Pro Bowl snub will be Scandrick, who will eventually beat out Jenkins and outplay Newman. The man-heavy coverage scheme and Scandrick and Newman's limited ball skills will lead to a lot of coverage sacks but few interceptions, and Newman makes the Pro Bowl in a "Denzel got his Oscar for Training Day?" lifetime achievement pick.

4) Dallas will overperform pre-season predictions due to the 2008 draft, which will be as foundational as the 2003 and 2005 drafts were.  Those drafts were excellent because the first rounders became stars, and we got guys like Barber, Witten, and Ratliff later. But remember, Witten and Barber didn't break out until year two, as most NFL drafts aren't felt until the year after the draft. Jones is a Newmanesque fast twitch athlete with a humble personality and hard work ethic who will be an elite player for 8 years. Scandrick is a smart, hyper-intense overachiever like Barber, Witten, and Rat. Martellus is from a long line of high risk/reward second round picks with attitude or "motor" questions that has included Antonio Bryant, Quincy Carter, and Flozell Adams. Bennett doesn't seem surly like Bryant, and while ultra quirky free spirits like him too often end up like Michael Beasley, I see Bennett's career more like "the Hotel" or even "Big Cat" Lett: a rare physical talent who will tease and frustrate fans his entire career, while adding a lot of value to the franchise. Our 2009 draft will end up as a D+, but Jerry will cite David Buehler's touchback rate and tackling as justifying the "special teams draft."  And Kevin Ogletree will become a quieter Patrick Crayton.

I've taken only small "poetic license" with the above predictions...I think they're they reflect the probable performance of the players in question. My season projection below is told as a story that I hardly expect to be fulfilled like prophecy, though I expect the broad contours to be correct. (Fast start, 10-11 Wins, Wild Card round victory, Close loss to end season, Wade not renewed).

5) Dallas will enter the bye week 4-1. split a tough stretch of Atlanta-Seattle-Philly-Green Bay, including one loss that will be widely blamed on Nick Folk. We will be 8-3 after bludgeoning Oakland on Thanksgiving. Everyone will be talking about "another December meltdown." In my opinion, our past December meltdowns have been due to the interaction of three underrated factors: Tony Romo's small hands, our big O-Line, and our schedule. Romo's hands are like Kurt Warner's: they give him uncanny touch but also are prone to injury and fumbles.  The turning point of each of our past two seasons was an injury to Romo's hand. Our playoff loss to the Giants doesn't happen if Romo's hand is 100% and he doesn't "hit the mascot" with a couple of deep throws. Last year Romo leads an amazing comeback against AZ, breaks his hand on the first play of OT, and throws two more wild incompletons. If his hand doesn't break, he probably leads the offense down the field for what we'd all remember as a Staubach-esque victory. Small-handed "touch" QB's are also more susceptible to the elements, and Tony is a bad cold weather QB. Romo's December struggles are mostly related to injuries, cold weather, and the inevitable O-Line swoon. Ever since the Jimmy dynasty, we've used the "massive offensive line" model. Parcells complained about fat linemen because he knew they wear down late in the season. We have a B+ O-Line in September, and a C- O-Line in December that is exposed especially by the athletic fronts in our own division. These problems have been excacerbated by Romo's injuries and the cold weather. Three of our five December games are in domes this year, and Washington (where I live) is rarely freezing, even in December. I predict a dramatic Sunday Night win in Washington to put us at 10-5 and (virtually) into the playoffs. Any hopes of 1st place are dashed by Philly's 11th win (over Denver), and their better conference record guarantees them first place notwithstanding the result of the finale. Still, the finale will be important, as Dallas chases the #5 seed and Philly could get the #1 seed with a win. In a nasty, chippy game that involves sparring matches between Scandrick and Desean Jackson, as well as Roy and Asante Samuel, Felix "out-Westbrooks-Westbrook" and Dallas wins a shootout to finish 11-5, the 5th seed, and widely seen as entering the playoffs with momentum for the first time this decade. Dallas opens on the road against #4 seed Seattle, a 9-7 NFC West embarrassment that is once again leading for calls to re-seed the playoffs. Dallas beats Seattle rather easily for Wade and Romo's first playoff win, advancing to meet the #1 seed, who I think will come out of the NFC Central this year (40% Minny, and maybe even with Rosenfels, 30% Chicago, and 30% surprising Packers). Romo leads a 4th quarter drive to take a late 4 point lead, but a blown coverage by Mike Jenkins leads to a quick TD drive and a late 3 point deficit. Romo leads the team downfield again, but given a chance to go aggressively for a TD or play conservatively for a 40 yard FG, Wade turns into Marty Schottenheimer and plays it safe. Nick Folk misses a 40-something FG, and we lose a heartbreaker. Tim McMahon of the DMN refers to Folk for the next 8 months as "Nick Norwood." The failure of the Defense to stop the late drive and the questionable game management make Wade's non-renewal a fait accompli. Jason Garrett's #3 ranked offense, which sparkled in late games against Philly and Seattle, makes him the new head coach.