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Bullish on the 'Boys

In the fall of 2000, I got married.  As my friends like to remind me, I clearly out-punted my coverage.  Can’t really argue with them.

 

In order to pay for the wedding, and some other debt, I went against the advise of my broker and cashed out almost all of my investments.  It was difficult to go against the professional opinion of a man dedicated to studying the marketplace, so I did a little research.

 

One of my discoveries was that nothing new happens in the stock market.  Whatever is currently occurring in the market has happened before.  In other words, past performance is indicative of future success or failure.

 

The secret is focusing on the correct information.  

 

So what is the correct information to glean from a difficult loss in the new Dallas Stadium?  Well, here is my opinion, for what it is worth…

 

Most fans have seen Romo’s stock fluctuate wildly in the past.  The first interception he threw last night looked like the pick six he threw last season in Pittsburgh.  The last interception looked like one of the interceptions pick he threw to Ed Reed during the final game in the Texas Stadium.

 

I am not making the decision to invest my hopes for this season on those two specific throws, however, as Tony’s performance was atypical.  Romo’s past performance when starting against the Giants would suggest that this game was an anomaly.

 

Tony averaged almost 260 yards passing per game against the Giants in the past.  He also completed almost 62% of his passes and had approximately 8.8 yards per attempt in those contests.  Romo had amassed 11 touchdowns and only three interceptions in the other four games he started against the Giants.  His passer rating was well over 100.

 

So who is willing to withdraw their holdings from a quarterback that has one clunker every five games?  That is only three or four bad performances throughout the course of the season and (hopefully) the post-season.

 

The key questions that beg to be asked are, “What has changed?  Does it have any impact on the problem?”

 

The running game was awesome, thanks in large part to a stellar performance from the offensive line that only committed one penalty and kept Romo clean (Tony was sacked eight times in the previous four games against the Giants).  Unfortunately, given the camera angles of the game broadcast, it is impossible to ascertain whether the receivers were getting open.  Only more games will show if the receivers were a factor, but there seemed to be guys running open through the short and intermediate zones.

 

The more that I see, the more I tend to think that this performance by Tony was an outlier.  It was statistically his second worse performance of his career (behind a 22.2 rating in 2007).  Sell the stock belonging to Romo if you wish, but I am ready to buy: remember…buy low, sell high. 

 

I am willing to gamble that Tony will bounce back with great performances in the coming weeks.  Romo has rebounded from poor performances (rating under 60) with performances garnering ratings of 58.8, 113.9, 111.6, 91, 81.2, and 113.7.  So in his first season (2006), he put together consecutive clunkers for the only time during his entire career.

 

As far as the stock belonging to the Dallas Cowboys football club, there were some indicators that should worry investors, but there were more strong indicators that should encourage investors.  The meek need not look any further than the Cowboys secondary in order to justify a panicked selling spree.  Most will misplace the blame to the corners, but the deep play to Manningham over Scandrick reeked of bad safety play by Ken Hamlin…again.

 

Orlando needs to tackle better, and he bit several times on double moves, but Manning needed time in the pocket to execute those slow-developing patterns.  For those wishing to dump their stock, look at Anthony Spencer for justification.  Ratliff and Ware were occupying two or three blockers on almost every pass play, while one guy was keeping Spencer away from Eli for almost the entire game. 

 

Hatcher and Bowens are what they are: one-dimensional back-ups that will bounce around from team to team once they leave via free agency.  Spears and Olshansky also fall into that category but it is hard for me to be tough on guys that stoned the Giants running game: they did their jobs to the best of their ability.

 

For people like me, looking to buy more Dallas Cowboys, Brooking and James were stout against a very good running team.  Flozell (despite the tripping), Marc, Andre, Kyle, and Leonard were AWESOME!  Marion Barber III (strained hip flexor – could be out a couple of weeks or not at all), Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice were dominating.

 

I recognize that losing money due to falling stock prices during these tough economic times is serious and should explicably elicit stress and strong emotional responses, but watching your football team lose a close game should not ignite the inflammatory responses that I have witnessed.  We surely have more going on in our lives than just football.  After all, while none of us are Saints (heh, heh), we are successful Cowboys fans, not violent (just ask Santa), criminally prone (needing a stadium jail), perennially losing (can we say 0 Super Bowl victories enough?) Eagles fanatics.

 

For those interested, the stock market dipped just weeks after I took almost all of my investments out thanks to the dot.com crisis.  The market never fully recovered, then crashed following 9/11.  I have been buying ever since…just like I am this season with the Cowboys.  Just too many positive indicators to overlook.


Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

12 recs  |  Comment 39 comments

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ScarletO

Rationality be thy name

by Dansonofdirm on Sep 21, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

For sure..

Great post dude. The only thing I would disagree with is that I think Bowen personally is pretty good backup. He has some quickness and can collapse the pocket pretty well compared to most DE’s on this team.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Sep 21, 2009 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting to hear something other than

hyperventilation and ranting.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Sep 21, 2009 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Always look forward to your posts ScarletO.

Sell in May and go away, but remember to buy in September.

I have borrowed against my portfolio of 2 TE sets, dominant running game and a multiple threat passing attack, to overinvest in Romo stock.

by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 23, 2009 3:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

WHERES OUR R.O.I.?…..ROMO IS NUTTIN BUT LONG TERM DEBT AT THIS POINT.. HES PAID NO DIVIDENDS, HE HAS POOR MANAGEMENT, POOR HISTORY, AND HIS PRODUCT SUCKS…U WERE PROLY LONG ENRON TOO

look up -- get up -- dont ever give up

by tex806 on Sep 21, 2009 10:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Seriously dude, give up..

You have been ranting and raving and even bringing out the race card. Honestly, I don’t get what utility you get from continuing on with your blogging.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Sep 21, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+10000

Priceless

Epic Fail since 1985

by the red scare on Sep 22, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is what I agree on your great post the most
For those wishing to dump their stock, look at Anthony Spencer for justification. Ratliff and Ware were occupying two or three blockers on almost every pass play, while one guy was keeping Spencer away from Eli for almost the entire game.

Did anyone watch the Raiders game Ellis still has it why did we dump him?

by rioplayer7 on Sep 21, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Spencer

I thought he played the well SO WELL last night,,Ellis had severely dropped off in that regard.

But i still think we should’ve kept him as a 3rd down pass rusher

by foyesboys on Sep 21, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry

I missed a crucial phrase in there

I thought he playd so well against the run last night. Ellis definitely dropped of in that area.

by foyesboys on Sep 21, 2009 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not buying all of it, Scarlet

Many of the flaws you mention are real ones, but you gloss over them:

The lack of a pass rush- I thought Spencer actually had a good game, and contrary to what you say, Ware was often single-teamed by Diehl, a guy he had owned in the past, but was unable to get by him. Rat got excellent penetration and we were unable to capitalize on it, and other than a few successful Bradie blitzes, we did not get to Eli even when rushing more than 4. That is worrisome to me. 0 sacks in 2 games is worrisome to me, particularly when we’ve owned the Giants’ OL in recent years.

The poor play by CBs- I agree that some of it was due to a poor pass rush, but that’s not really a good thing, is it?

The bad safety play- yes, I get that Hamlin messed up and blaming him for the breakdowns is just as valid as blaming the CBs…but Hamlin’s on our team too, right? Why are we supposed to feel more bullish because he messed up instead of the CBs?

Yes, I think Tony will rebound. His career indicates that a 3 INT game is not the norm for him. But was anyone saying that that was the case? QBs with 3 INTs as their standard don’t last very long in the league, in my experience. I think the problem that people have is not that Romo does this on a regular basis, but that he does it occasionally, and that’s a problem.

I am pretty bullish on Romo in general, and I think he should be judged on his body of work over the entire season, but pointing to an overall statistically strong career is an indicator of the overall mean level of performance, not of game-to-game consistency. This isn’t a stock market— it’s the NFL, where one bad day can hurt your championship chances immensely.

My biggest concern is that many of the same things were said about the warts we saw early last season, and that was a team achieving better results than this one. Part of the problem is that this team’s historical trend has been to regress as the season progresses, not improve. I am cautiously hopeful that we can fix some of these problems, but there is a 3+ year track record on several of them at this point. If your point is that we should use historical indicators to gauge future performance, then I am concerned.

Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.

by Tim Wilson on Sep 21, 2009 3:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like Scarlet's post.

 I agree that one game is no reason to abandon the rest of the season. I also agree with Tim that history from the last three years may not be where we want to look. I want to remain optimistic, but have little to see that it will be different this year. I guess I have to have hope that the offensive line will hold up and I really like the fact that there have been fewer penalties so far this year than in the last few years.

by illcowboy on Sep 21, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I usually do not clarify my posts (although I probably should), but I really liked the tone in yours and the points you made. Thanks for your thought-provoking post. I liked it.

“As far as the stock belonging to the Dallas Cowboys football club, there were some indicators that should worry investors…The meek need not look any further than the Cowboys secondary in order to justify a panicked selling spree.”

I am agreeing that the secondary play and the poor pass rush will justify the concerns of those fans wishing to bail on the season. I think that more good came out of this game than bad, which has not always been the case.

In addition, a good mutual fund is measured over the course of decades, not a couple of years. The last time the Cowboys rushed for more than 251 yards was in 1993. The Cowboys stock was at an all-time high at that time.

As I said, it all depends on the information you are studying.

by ScarletO on Sep 21, 2009 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Using past performance as a benchmark probably isn't the most reliable thing in this case...

For 3 seasons I’ve watched a fired up Dallas team rush head-long into the season with an overinflated idea of their own self-worth and skill. They always seemed to peak early then ride a looooong bumpy road down. The most positive thing I saw last night wasn’t much different after the game than it was before it: they aren’t fooling themselves this year.

Yeah they looked awful last night. They also could not catch a break while the Giants caught several. At no point did they give up though. They’re not talking about the playoffs…they’re talking about winning the next game. Another big difference is that because of the restraint in bluster and ego pre-game, after the game they weren’t out there having to explain how they can talk that talk then play like they were stoned.

I think this loss is a sign that they are in a much better position to peak much later in the season than they have in the past. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

(PS yes I belatedly realize the irony in my signature line….now off to find a new one….)

"Sadly, sometimes the haters are right." -Tuna Helper 12/29/2008

by california fan on Sep 21, 2009 3:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'll buy some of this

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Sep 21, 2009 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cold Hard Football Facts

After last night, I encourage everyone to go back and read the Cold Hard Football Facts article on Romo.

[Romo’s] production is not merely good: It’s spectacular.
 
Just 40 starts into his career, Romo is on pace to challenge or even rewrite the records in some of the most important indicators of quarterbacking success. He’s certainly living up to the standards of a franchise that’s been consistently blessed for more than 40 years with some of the best field generals in the game. But not even Dallas legends Aikman, Staubach or Dandy Don put up these kinds of numbers.
 
Romo is still shy of the minimum 1,500 attempts needed to qualify for official NFL records (he’s attempted 1,334 passes). But he’ll reach that milestone some time in October – and when he does he’ll find himself in very elite statistical company.

Here’s some of the cold hard stats:

Passer Rating
After the Bucs game, Romo was #2 in all-time passer rating leaderboard, which takes into account interceptions. All-time. That’s better than Peyton Manning, better than Tom Brady. Maybe he’ll slip back to #3 after laying the egg last night, but still… And Romo isn’t that far back from Steve Young at #1, and if he can manage to clean up his bad decisions, this season he could become the most efficient passer in the history of the game. Yet some ready to look for a replacement after one bad game so far this season. (And oh btw, after the first 2 games, Romo has a better passer rating than Tom Brady so far this season.)

Yards Per Attempt
Romo is #3 all-time in YPA, which is a good indicator of QB quality and team success. Romo is better in YPA than Brady, better than P. Manning, better than every other QB who has played the game except Otto Graham and Sid Luckman. Yet some ready to look for a replacement after one bad game so far this season.

Victories
Romo is 28-13 overall, with only Brady and Big Ben having a higher win percentage among active QBs. Yet some are ready to look for a replacement after one bad game so far this season.

Look, I’m as upset at anyone about how poorly he played last night, and that the ball security focus that he was supposedly putting in in the off-season obviously needs more focus still. He deserves most of the blame for that loss, and deserves plenty of criticism.

But I think a lot of fans are really overreacting to this one game, especially given that this was against a defense that is rated as one of the best in the league. What he doesn’t deserve is to have so-called fans calling for his head after one bad game.

I still firmly believe he is one of the best QBs in the game, and his numbers above back it up. And we are extremely fortunate to have him, and would have an extremely difficult time finding someone even close to his talent to replace him. Good QBs are hard enough to find, elite QBs are a rarity indeed. Go look around the league. Our backup QB is better than a lot of the starting QBs in the league.

Now it remains to be seen as the season unfolds, if his season more resembles week 1 or week 2, but it will take a lot more than just one bad game against a very good defense so far in only his third full season as a starter for me to say that Romo is a sell, and shouldn’t be our franchise QB…

by scottmaui on Sep 21, 2009 8:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I generally agree

but its not deniable that Romo hasn’t been great lately. He has fallen flat in many of our last 8 or 9 games…only time will tell if this is just a bump in the road for him or if his play really has fallen off. QB is a large part mental, and to me, he looked like he doubted himself at many points last night.

by foyesboys on Sep 21, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to say i dont think he'll bounce back

just that this slump shouldn’t be passed off with “He has good games and bad, this was just bad”

by foyesboys on Sep 21, 2009 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see your point

and to be honest, I am worried about that too. His confidence seemed fine in the TB game but he really seemed to get tentative in the Giants game.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Sep 22, 2009 7:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even with all the stats (which look wonderful)...

there is something grossly missing in Romo.

Until he fixes it – the stats are a mirage.

by BishopWest on Sep 21, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The stats are a mirage?

seriously?

The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!

by aussie_cowboy on Sep 21, 2009 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's all you'll hear

from people who just don’t like Romo – “it’s all just stats”. As if he bought them on E-Bay instead of earning them out on the field.

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Sep 22, 2009 7:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!

by aussie_cowboy on Sep 22, 2009 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He earned it.

Shutdown Corner blog has a good reaction to TD’s comments (although I don’t think TD meant the comments in the way a lot of folks have interpreted, but still the points he makes here are good nonetheless)…

Now, far be it from me to question the judgment of a Hall of Famer like Tony Dorsett, but I’d like to respectfully disagree here. Romo, while young and with still a lot to prove, isn’t some bum. He’s not out there “doing nothing.” He wasn’t “anointed” a great player. He earned it.

Look at the numbers: For three straight years, Romo’s had a quarterback rating in the 90s, putting him in the league’s top 10 all three years, and in the top five twice. Are we going to pretend that didn’t happen? Does that not count, for some reason?
He is the active NFL leader in yards-per-pass-attempt — ahead of Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Warner, and everyone else. He’s fourth all-time in the same statistic. He was second in the league in passing touchdowns to Tom Brady’s(notes) other-wordly 50 in 2007. He’s been to two Pro Bowls.

No one handed him those things. He earned them by being a damn good quarterback.

Now, all of that said, it’s true that he’s yet to win a playoff game, he’s failed in some big moments, and in Dallas, they’re used to winning playoff games and Super Bowls. I get that. But honestly, has Romo been the only flaw on the team? Is he the sole reason the Cowboys have lost those big games? Absolutely not.

And I will grant that some of Tony Romo’s notoriety comes from being Jessica Simpson’s love interest for a while, but let’s not get it twisted. He’s been a good quarterback, too. Dorsett’s talking about Romo like he’s Rex Grossman or something. Tony Romo has played at a very high level for the last three years, and one bad game in prime time and the scorn of Tony Dorsett can’t erase that.

by scottmaui on Sep 25, 2009 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great post

Recomended

The Knights season may have just ended, but the Cowboys year is just begining!

by aussie_cowboy on Sep 21, 2009 11:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Amazing post, good sir

I tried very unsuccessfully to say the same thing. You made the point beautifully.

The team still looks good to me. Romo had one amazing game and an awful one. Even though Romo played miserably, we still put up 31 points and nearly beat a team that’s supposed to have one of the best defenses in the league. The Giants offense could do no wrong in the second half and we still had the lead with 3 minutes and some change left in the game.

There really is no such thing as a moral victory in the NFL, but there are pieces on this team that look like they could carry us deep into the play offs. Will they? No one knows. But they certainly could, and that’s got me awfully excited…

Epic Fail since 1985

by the red scare on Sep 22, 2009 12:10 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty and the pig loves it.

by dunkman on Sep 22, 2009 7:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

there are pieces on this team that look like they could carry us deep into the play offs

and there are pieces that look really bad right now. But it’s still so early in the season. Many BTBers seem to believe there is no way that this team can improve. Would they say the same about NE?

The crux of the pessimistic argument is that we haven’t seen this team improve over the course of the season in the past few years, so we shouldn’t expect to see any improvement this season.

But recent playoff history shows that from year to year there is consistently significant turnover—teams that make it one year and don’t the next, and vice versa. This suggests that each season is it’s own, and we won’t know much about this season until much later in the year.

Were changes to this team made during this off-season? I think everyone can agree that some significant changes were made (many believe not enough was done, of course). But the question becomes: how will those changes pan out? No one can say at this point , which means it is possible that this year’s team can show some improvement this season. We’ll know when we know.

"Everybody wants something but nobody wants to pay the price" - Michael Irvin

by 24Hz on Sep 22, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

agreed

nothing holds in this conference. In fact, it seems to be the teams that are counted out and on the brink (Bears with Grossman, Giants with Eli, Cardinals and Eagles last year) are the teams turn it around.

Being a favorite in this conference in any month, whether its september or january, means jack. Make the playoffs and anything can happen.

by foyesboys on Sep 27, 2009 4:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well said

I agree that there was a lot of positive to be taken from this game. Just replacing the turnovers with punts this would have been a very strong performance by the offense. The defense still seems to be struggling with being able to play decent run defense and pass defense at the same time. But in 07’ they were 8th in total defense and last year despite get destroyed in the last 5 quarters of the season they ended up at 9th. I think the defense will get patched up. The only problem I see with this bullish approach is that it appears there will be inconsistent games by certain units on either offense or defense, this is common. But, the amount of inconsistency we’ve seen leads me to wonder how many games there is going to be too many bad units for the good units to pick up.

by SDTrueblue on Sep 22, 2009 4:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

offensive line

going into the season, we tend to focus on the skill positions and how they’re gonna produce, but we always have to come back to the health and good play of the offensive line. that is the key to everything… give Romo some time, give S-D-T some room to run, and this offense can be highly productive.

well after watching our drives from Sunday again, I have to say I’m feeling really good about that part.

It’s funny how losing really changes our perspective and we tentdto focus much more on the negatives, whereas if the Giants had missed that last FG or a number of other plays had gone just slightly differently, we’d tend to be able to focus more on the positive, and there was actually plenty of it, especially where the offensive line was concerned.

Here’s the numbers:

Rushing YPC: 8.7 (!!!)
Sacks given up: 0
QB Hurries given up: 1
TFLs given up: 2
Penalties: 1 for 10 yards (Flo tripping)
First Downs by Rushing: 15
Red zone efficiency: 4/4
Goal to Go efficiency: 4/4

Barbarian highlights
“Barber with a gaping hole…”

And Kosier was apparent on several big plays, especially at the end zone, pulling and leading the runner into the hole and laying devastating blocks. Man it’s good to have him back, and I’ll never under-appreciate him again lol.

And remember, this is against the Giants’ defense, generally considered top 5 if not the best front 7 in the league, and the strength of their team. Yet our line just abused them. That’s right, eight point freaking seven yards per carry.

There’s some things that definitely need improvement on this team to perform up to their potential, but having an offensive line playing like this bodes very well for how high their potential actually is.

Here’s to their health!!!

by scottmaui on Sep 25, 2009 10:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Love Me Scarlet O

Great analysis. I am bullish on Romo but mad as hell about his performance. It is the trend line that worries me. In buying a specific company, you are concerned about the history and the trend line on profitability. In Romo’s case, there is much to worry about; some on the field, some off the field, and some in between. The fumbled snap, the poor performance at times in 2008 even considering injury, the Cabo event, the pouting on the sideline, the stupid remarks about if this is the worst thing that happens to me, dating a slumdog like that broad with the intrusive father; and the poor performance on a Giant Stage last Sunday . . . all in all, Romo is on the cusp of taking a step forward or sinking into mediocrity that will have him looking up at Danny White on the all time list. Romo is at the stage in his career where it is logical to presume he takes the next step up. After last season, Romo had to be thinking and targeting the Giants game; it was the chance to take control of the division and keep this choke hold all season long. The offensive line played great; the running game clicked but Romo swallowed a giant choke pill and essentially caused the loss. This is as big a giant step backwards as could have been imagined. Outlier? Exception to a steller career? We can hope; my fear is that the chattering class of Aikman, Tony D, and others in a position to know may be on to something; Romo is as good as he is gonna get and that simply ain’t good enough to take Dallas to the next level. I have hope but I am no longer willing to bet my left nut Tony will be a champion.

by Iowacowboy on Sep 26, 2009 9:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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