7 Statistical Nuggets Through Week 3
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 29, 2009 9:52 AM CDT
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Random statistical thoughts and musings after three weeks.
1. NFC BEAST
With an 8-4 combined W-L record through week three, the NFC is the winningest division in the NFL, sharing the top spot with the NFC North. Strange but true: No other divisions in the NFL have combined winning records!
2. Strength of Schedule ain't all it's cracked up to be
Going in to the season, Dallas' first three opponents in 2009 had a formidable combined winning percentage in 2008 of .688 (33W, 15L). Their combined winning percentage in 2009 is a lowly .333 (3W, 6L).
By strength of schedule (based on 2008 W/L records) Dallas had by far the toughest first three games and the Redskins the weakest (see below). Looking at the next three weeks, the Cowboys are the only team in the NFC East whose next three opponents have a combined winning percentage in the first three weeks of 2009. Amazingly, the Redskins face three consecutive teams (TB, CAR, KC) who are a combined 0-9 so far this year.
Combined winnings percentages of opponents in the first three weeks
| |
First three games 09 |
Next three games 09 |
||
| 2009 W/L% |
2008 W/L% | 2009 W/L% |
2008 W/L% | |
| Cowboys | .333 |
.688 |
.556 |
.438 |
| Giants | .333 |
.542 | .444 |
.313 |
| Eagles | .333 |
.458 | .222 | .458 |
| Redskins | .444 |
.292 | .000 | .479 |
3. Welcome to the Dallas Cowboys, David Buehler
Shockingly, the Cowboys this year are tied for 1st in the league with 7 Touchbacks. This is almost twice the amount we had in 2007 & 2008 COMBINED!
In the three 2009 games, the Cowboys had 18 Kickoffs, 13 made it to the Endzone, 7 resulted in Touchbacks. In the first three games of 2008, the Boys were 19-1-0 in the same categories.
4. The Penalty Scourge
While almost every penalty called against us has me shaking my head in utter disbelief, my blood pressure experienced a significant drop when I realized that with 17 penalties so far this year, we are tied at 8th on the list of least penalized teams (albeit with with 7 other teams.) Last year we were dead last on that list.
5. Turnover ratio
We ranked 30th last year in TO ratio, this year we are tied at 16th with 8 other teams with a -1 TO ratio. Here's hoping our secondary have finally found their mojo.
6. Coach DeCamillis: King of the 'hidden yardage'
'Hidden yardage' looks at the field position after kickoffs, i.e. the actual starting position of each drive
Average hidden yardage after kickoffs, week 3 2009 vs. week 3 2008
| |
2009 |
2008 |
| Own starting position after receiving kickoffs | 26.5 |
23.7 |
| Opponent starting position after kickoffs | 21.2 |
27.2 |
In 2009, these numbers translate into a 5.3-yard differential for every pair of kickoffs; in 2008 the differential was -3.5. Assuming an average of 5 kickoffs per game over 16 games, the 2009 differential could add up to 424 more yards than our oppenents. Bow down to King DeCamillis.
7. Yards per play (pass & run)
Dallas leads the league in Yards per Play after three weeks with 7.3. Last year we were 9th with 5.6, in 2007 we ranked 3rd with 6.0. Now if we could only be more efficient in the red zone ...
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Nice!
The crazy thing about the the NFC East’s record is that 2 of the 4 losses were inside the division. Only the very scary Saints and um, mighty Lions have dealt the division losses so far.
by Baked Potato Soup on Sep 29, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions
I
love the fact that everyone gave Dallas crap for drafting a kicker when “they already had one,” and now they;‘re tied with 7 touchbacks. Now I see some teams going with a kickoff specialist, and a field goal kicker … and they don’t get called dumb! Great move by Dallas.
Had to vent for a sec. Sorry.
Sugar ... water .... and, of course, purple.
Beuhler is a proven commodity
Here’s hoping Butler, J Williams and Hamlin make this a good draft.
Does anybody know the status of Brewster?
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
What a difference an ST coach makes!
Who would have thought? I am so relieved any kick is not an exercise in, ‘what can go wrong now?’ However, Mr Hurd deserves some time behind the woodshed for these block-in-the-back penalties. Enough. Crayton looks a little tentative on PR, I guess that’s the price to pay for consistency and reliability.
As I said in the offseason, just improving ST’s to Average from Fail would be dramatic.
Can’t wait to see Buehler and McBriar kicking in DEN
Note: No trees were killed in the sending of this message. However, a large number of electrons were terribly inconvenienced
Crayton is whom i would have returning punts....
Have u ever seen him drop a punt? I can remember a certain drop from him but not a fumble help me out
Crayton muffed at least one punt in the Giants playoff loss
I think I recall him muffing another one earlier this year; Crayton has solid hands but he has had his moments where the ball and his hands have been enemies.
Now I like that kind of post - OCC
You got me thinking about some other interesting stats that could piggyback on your Seven Nuggets
Great
looking forward to it, and I’ve still got a couple of nuggets stashed away too lol
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 29, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions
A Nugget on Utilizing Felix Jones in the "run game"
Comparing 2008 (weeks 1-3) and 2009 (weeks 1-3)
2008 – Felix had 18 carries
2009 – Felix had 21 carries
2008 – Felix had 148 yards
2009 – Felix had 212 yards
2008 – Felix averaged 8.2 ypc
2009 – Felix averaged 10.1 ypc
But this is what I think is most noteworthy -
2008 – Felix ran in between the tackles 9 times and outside the tackles 9 times (split evenly)
2009 – Felix ran in between the tackles 6 times and outside the tackles 15 times (more than twice as much outside)
2008 – Felix’s longest run was 60 yards around the left end
2009 – Felix’s longest runs were 56 yards around left tackle, and 40 yards around left end
Going left is his definite “sweet spot”
Going left and going early
Here’s Felix split by downs – attempts – yards:
1st – 14 – 103
2nd – 5 – 102
3rd – 2 – 7
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 30, 2009 4:01 AM CDT up reply actions
He would probably explode later in the game, too.
If he could actually make it to that point.
by Baked Potato Soup on Sep 30, 2009 6:22 AM CDT up reply actions
lol
I didn’t mean early as in 1st or 2nd quarter. My point is, he is being used on 1st and 2nd downs, usually in longer yardage situations. The advantage here is that opposing defenses may not stuff the box as much as they might do in a 3rd and short situation.
Thus, when teams are defending the pass, this leaves more room for Felix to explode through the gaps using his key strengths, speed and lateral quickness. I actually think Garrett is doing a great job in playing to Felix’ strengths.
In a 3rd down back, you’re obviously looking for more than just running skills, you want someone who is skilled at catching passes, able to pick up blitzes, and is a good pass blocker. No disrespect to Felix, but these three are not (yet) his key strengths. In fact, both Tashard and Marion are much better at this, imho. Again kudos to Garrett for building a gameplan that plays to each of our RBs strengths.
- Felix to exploit long yardage situations in which the defense plays against the pass
- Choice for 3rd downs to: provide an additional pass catcher, pick up blitzes, pass block, occasionaly run it and – let’s face it – to spell Barber.
- The Barbarian to instill the fear of God into opposing defenses with his punishing running style, clock management as well as any type of endzone bulldozing.
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 30, 2009 7:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Good stuff
Shocked to see we’re that low on the penalty list. I don’t so much have a problem with the amount of penalties we’re getting, but that timing of our penalties so far. Our guys killed a few drives and ruined scoring opportunities last night. Really frustrating stuff.
But I do think Joe D is the real deal. Guy’s turned around the ST units completely. That alone could be the extra push we’ve needed for the last few years.
Epic Fail since 1985
Sometimes it's so bad with the timing of the penalties
that I actually laughed out loud when they got a false start at the goal line (#89 Phillips though, at least not one of the regulars).
Only the Cowboys and maybe the Raiders would do that.
by Realist Larry on Sep 29, 2009 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions
My own stat: Underrated Patrick Crayton as a pint returner.
In both 2007 and 2008 he averaged over 9 yards a carry. He’s not flashy and even I’ve criticized him a bit in the past, but the truth is he gets the job done, and we can’t all have a game-breaker there (although last year 90% of the posters here were convinced we would have a ton of killer punt returners w/Pacman and the draft!)
He looks a little stronger this year running those reverses/end-arounds, and on the punt returns. Maybe he’ll back up his talk a little more.
Look up TNewman’s career punt returns and you will NOT be impressed, nor want him risking pulling a groin or muscle for the low possibility of a big return.
Penalties: The first two games were great, but the Boys are trending the wrong way after last night. The 1st two games, 8 penalties total – 9 last night!
They need to clean that up on the road in Denver.
Uh,
“punt” returner.
I have no idea how he does recycling bottles.
by Realist Larry on Sep 30, 2009 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions
You're right
those penalties did increase and seemed to me like they were at some of the most inconvenient times
Butler showed us what we have in his ability...
and I swear on the good book, that everytime i had a chance i told people to watch out for that Trojan K/O specialist Dallas had drafted,…and (rubs knuckles on jersey) I WAS RIGHTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!….FEAR THE STAR
by Hawgz, Bugz, and FilthyFowl Hater on Sep 30, 2009 8:35 AM CDT reply actions
Another nice post, OCC
Question: how have our penalties dropped year over year by unit (Specials, Offense and Defense)?
Something tells me kick return and defensive penalties are down for us but I can’t be sure.
"Well, we didn't block real good but we made up for it by not tackling."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sorry, no can do
I haven’t found a free site (yet) that breaks down the penalties that way. While the big sites (nfl.com, foxsports.com, espn.com etc.) do show defensive and offensive penalties, this nomeclature is actually misleading.
What these sites call defensive penalties are actually penalties committed by opposing teams on offense and defense. And what they call offensive penalties are penalties committed by one’s own team on offense and defense.
Unfortunately, NFL gamebooks, the official box scores of NFL games, do not breakout a team’s penalties between offense and defense either, so short of wading through the play-by-play and manually collating the data, no can do.
Suggestions anybody? Buehler? …
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 30, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Not exactly what you're looking for, but it's something:
Cowboys 2008 penalty stats by penalty
And STATS breaks down total penalties, false starts and holding calls for individual offensive linemen. Here’s Flozell Adams’.
by Baked Potato Soup on Sep 30, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions
The link for Flozell worked for me
but not the one labeled “Cowboys 2008 penalty stats by penalty” – maybe something’s wrong, I dunno
I already have the break-down of penalties by unit, player, position,etc.
For all of last year’s 16 games
I haven’t done the work for this year’s 3 games yet, but it could probably be done in less than an hour.
I do not have any of the penalty breakdowns beyond last year though.
You sir are a freak!
Might want to wait a game or two until we have a larger base, then make it a fanpost. I’d give you a rec for effort alone.
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 30, 2009 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
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