The Felix effect

by ScarletO on Sep 29, 2009 7:10 PM CDT Comment 12 comments

It is fascinating to see how many similarities exist between sports. A basketball team that can only score in the paint eventually struggles to score when the opponent compresses their zone defense close to the basket. A pitcher with a great fastball is just an average pitcher until he develops the change-up to complement the heater.

Similarities even span across team sports and individual sports. The tennis player that has an awesome forehand, but a weak backhand. The golfer that is tremendous off of the tee, but three putts consistently.

Anyone that has competed has experienced the “one-trick pony”. The baller who can only shoot accurately moving to his right. The batter that cannot hit the curveball. The buddy that keeps donating cash to your private fund every time he pulls the putter out of his bag…

Felix is the three pointer needed to complement your 7-foot center.

Felix is the pitcher that paints the corners with junk and blows the hard stuff by you.

Felix is Federer and Tiger in shoulder pads and a helmet…OK, maybe that is overstating it: call it literary license.

It is amazing how the Cowboys rushing offense changed once Felix left the game on Monday night. I am afraid that Felix’s absence in the mile-high city will make the Cowboys running game look like the slow, old, hairy, shirtless, fat guy on the basketball court that prides himself in playing tough defense: one-dimensional (and bad).

Of the 32 carries the Cowboys executed against the Carolina Panthers, 26 were handoffs to either Tashard Choice (whom also took a direct snap for 10 yards) or Felix Jones. Those handoffs helped Dallas accumulate 169 yards on the ground. That averages exactly 6.5 yards per traditional rushing attempt.

The Dallas game plan started out simply enough: run behind Flozell Adams and Kyle Kosier. The Cowboys ran six of their 11 first half traditional running plays off of left guard (1), left tackle (2), or left end (3), and gained 36 yards. The Cowboys also had two token runs off of right tackle in the first half of the game that accounted for 18 yards, and almost much, much more, if not for a shoe-string tackle on Felix.

The Cowboys only ran three times up the middle (for 12 yards) in the first half, but once Jones went down, the offense changed their rushing strategy. In the second half, Dallas ran the ball four times on the left side of the line: two off of left end, and two off of left tackle. One of the runs off of left end was the huge 40-yard gallop by Felix.

The Cowboys only ran twice around right end for a total of six yards in the second half from traditional running sets. That means that of the 15 traditional runs executed by the Cowboys in the second half of the game against Carolina, Dallas ran up the middle nine times for 42 yards.

Of the 12 rushes up the middle, the longest run went for 9 yards, and four of the carries went for three yards or less. The Cowboys averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per carry running against a depleted Carolina front. That is generally considered a great average, but Dallas averaged 9.1 yards per carry running to the left and 6.0 yards per rush to the right side of the line.

Felix threatens the perimeter of the defense like no other player wearing a star since Tony Dorsett. Sans Felix, the Cowboys focused on grinding the ball up the middle of the defense. Felix’s speed and elusiveness forced the Panthers to defend across the entire line of scrimmage, and was the Cowboys most effective answer for Carolina’s zone blitz schemes.

Hopefully Felix will return soon, because nobody enjoys watching the slow, old, hairy, shirtless, fat guy on the basketball court. Perhaps that is also an overstatement…more literary license.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Interesting analogy...

Mile High Stadium is probably the biggest home-field advantage in football (unless you count having coke bottles and tampax thrown at you in Lincoln Financial Field). The finely tuned athlete is still subject to physics and thin air takes awhile for one to acclimate. I see MBIII returning and the big uglies mauling for another big rushing game as I believe that the passing game is more taxing for both sides of the ball. Should be a good game. Godspeed to Felix for a speedy recovery.

by Keys80 on Sep 29, 2009 9:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Also remember that

In the first half, when Felix was running more, DAL either had no points or were behind in the score.

Mostly in the second half, when Choice ran more, DAL was up in the score.

Even with that in mind, I totally agree with you on the fact that Felix is a much better outside runner, and Choice is more suited for between the tackles.

by BishopWest on Sep 30, 2009 12:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nicely put

I think the MB3/Choice combo can still get it done, but it certainly won’t be as pretty or exciting as it would be with Felix. He’s officially our big play guy. We’ll just have to grind out a win against Denver.

Epic Fail since 1985

by the red scare on Sep 30, 2009 3:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Very well done

Losing Felix is a big deal. He’s a huge threat everytime he touches the football. I am more comfortable though because the coaches have a week to game-plan around it. Besides Barber being back, I could also see a lot of scenario’s where the short passing game makes up for some of what Felix would have done. Even intermediate routes could be used more, the WR’s really weren’t heavily involved last week.

by StillHateTheGiants on Sep 30, 2009 7:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Expect a lot of Martellus Bennett in Denver

The Denver defense has played exceptionally well so far this season, regardless of the level of competition (and I recognize that Dallas has beaten two teams that are now each 0-3). Champ Bailey is still an elite cornerback. Brian Dawkins is still contributing at a high level, with Alphonso Smith and Darrell Reid also having solid seasons.

The Denver secondary is playing very well, and is permitting the front seven to stunt, zone blitz, and slide to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The front three have been tying up offensive linemen effectively, permitting the Denver linebackers to be exceptionally active in rushing the quarterback and getting to running backs. DJ Williams (6’ 1", 242 pounds) and Andra Davis (6’ 1" 250 pounds) are very active behind the defensive line.

Mario Haggan is the only linebacker over 260 pounds (listed at 6’ 3" and 267 pounds). Elvis Dumervil, the Broncos best pass rusher with 6.0 sacks is only 5’ 11" and 248 pounds. He uses his long arms well in pass rushing situations, but is a liability in coverage. Wesley Woodyard will assume most of the coverage responsibilities, but is only 6’ 0" and 222 pounds.

While Dawkins is still a beast in run support, he was not the force in coverage last season in Philadelphia that he was in the past, and that performance has carried over to this season in Denver. DJ Williams or Andra Davis and Brian Dawkins will probably draw many of the coverage responsibilities on Martellus Bennett and Jason Witten when the Broncos do not fall into two-deep zone coverage schemes. Either Denver defender is a mismatch favoring the Cowboys.

Of course, if the Denver defense chooses to fall into two-deep zones, the tight ends will be targeted as the primary receivers in the soft areas of the zone. As long as Tony Romo is patient (as he was against Carolina), the Cowboys will be able to move the ball down the field.

If Romo chooses to throw the ball downfield against the Denver defense, Tony could duplicate the results he had from the Buffalo game in 2007, and the Giants game a week ago last Sunday night, when both teams played two-deep zone coverage most of the game. In addition, the Cowboys offensive line has not demonstrated that they have ironed out the issues that they had with their offensive line communication with zone blitzes that doomed the team last December: Dallas surrendered two sacks versus the Panthers blitzes.

Denver has blitzed quite a bit so far this season, and will probably continue that blitz trend against Dallas throughout the game. Tony may not have the time to hold onto the ball if Denver’s blitzing scheme is successful. Felix Jones would have been a strong deterrent to a steady diet of blitzing, given Felix’s game-breaking ability.

The Cowboys cannot become one-dimensional against the Broncos this week, like the Panthers did Monday night in Dallas. It will be important for Dallas to threaten Denver with the running game. The Broncos front seven is quick and fast, but the defensive line is undersized. A consistent pounding from the behemoth Dallas offensive line will take its toll by the fourth quarter, and likely lead to a longer runs at the end of the contest.

The weather will not be a factor Sunday afternoon (around 70 degrees and sunny), but the altitude will. The Broncos have not yielded many big plays so far this season, so time of possession will be a factor. Without Felix Jones in the lineup, keeping the ball will be more difficult.

by ScarletO on Sep 30, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Dallas defense against the Denver offense

Since I already jotted down some thoughts about the Cowboys offense sans Felix Jones against the Broncos, I figured that I might as well share my thoughts on the match-up that really matters: the Cowboys defense versus the Broncos offense. The latter pits the weakness of both teams against each other.

Interestingly, the head coaches for both teams specialize on the side of the ball that is currently seen as the weakness of their respective organization. McDaniels is the real deal as an offensive coordinator, despite having a relatively short NFL resume in comparison to Wade’s over 30 years as a NFL coach in some capacity.

The Broncos offense is similar to the offense the New England Patriots last season. Watching Denver this season shows the value of a healthy Tom Brady. Last year, the Patriots had one of the worst red-zone offenses in the NFL. That was with Matt Cassel at quarterback, of course. In 2007, Brady led an offense that broke NFL records for most points, most touchdowns, and so forth, en route to a 16-0 regular season.

This season, the Broncos show the same difficulty on offense that the Patriots demonstrated last season in the red zone. The short passing game is great between the 20’s, but needs a strong-armed, accurate quarterback once the field shrinks.

The Dallas secondary will be tested, and I expect to see McDaniels recognize the difficulties the nickel package had last week against Carolina, and the week before against the Giants. Denver is getting good production from three receivers right now: Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokely, and Brandon Marshall (despite his immaturity). Surprisingly, Eddie Royal has not built upon a strong rookie season in McDaniels’ new system, despite seemingly being a perfect fit to run the short quick routes all over the field.

Expect to see Denver go to three receiver sets early and often. Most of the patterns will be short crossing routes, quick outs, slants, and smoke routes. Scandrick will need to have a strong game in the slot, while Newman and Jenkins will need to remain focused the entire game (not for 28 minutes in the first half, and 27 minutes in the second half: reference to "the 55-minute men").

Most of all, the cornerbacks will need to tackle much better than they have to this point. Hard to believe that such a basic skill needs to be a chief concern coming into the quarter pole of the season. Unfortunately, however, the secondary has been horrible bringing down ball carriers, spanning all the way back to the Baltimore game last season. If Denver can complete 3-yard passes and turn them into 8-yard gains consistently on Sunday afternoon, the Cowboys will lose.

The Broncos running game is still a force, especially against the Cowboys nickel defense. Detroit showed this flaw in Wade’s defense in 2007, and watching fellow Ohio State alum, Bobby Carpenter, flailing hopelessly against ball carriers running through his zone this season, makes me nervous as a fan going into a game against a top-notch offensive mind.

Denver has its own trio of very good running backs. Buckhalter, Moreno, and Hillis are all capable of carrying the running game. McDaniels has utilized the running game much more in Denver than he had in New England, and by no means is the Denver offense a one-dimensional, pass-happy unit. In fact, Denver has run the ball 102 times, and has only dropped back to pass 91 times.

Denver’s offense is most effective when the running game is working. Kyle Orton is at his best as a play-action passer, managing the game. Kyle is by definition, a bus-driver.

Not only is the shoddy tackling Dallas has demonstrated to this point in the season likely to be a huge issue this week, but the relative lack of pressure that the Cowboys front seven has applied over the first two and a half games cannot occur. Ware needs to abuse Ryan Clady, who by his own right is a very good left tackle. Spencer needs to show more consistent pressure, and continue to play the run effectively.

When Orton is pressured, he will throw the ball up for grabs. Permitted to stay clean in the pocket, Kyle will dink and dunk the Dallas defense to death all afternoon long. Given time, the Denver wide receivers will get open and make plays.

This match-up: Dallas defense versus Denver offense will in my opinion, be the deciding factor in the game. This game may become a shoot-out if the Dallas defense does not come to play. If Romo needs to throw the ball 40 times this week, I am sure the Romo-bashers will come out in force and discount his performance on Monday night as a fluke. I am also sure that those same fans will also designate this game as another "big-game" post-mortem.

by ScarletO on Sep 30, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post

I am continously amazed how you manage to pack so much data into a post without ever using a table :-)

by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 30, 2009 7:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

felix is special but...

with our massive o-line we should be able to pound MBIII and TC and create come play action ops for TR;

"What we've got here is failure to communicate"

by angie'sdad on Sep 30, 2009 11:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The only problem with Felix is his blitz pick-up/blocking. Whenever he’s back there, teams are going to see this and send the hot read his way. Hopefully this doesn’t affect his on field production moving forward in the season.

by maxdallasfan on Sep 30, 2009 2:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

We'll be less explosive...

But not by a ton. Even in the giants game against a better front seven than the broncs have; we still got big runs out of both Choice and Barber. Not as many 20 – 35 yarders like Felix can bring to the table, but still some big holes and some long runs.

This all comes back to why our ofense is so much better than people give it credit for. The Giants/Panthers played two deep safeties most of the game to counter the deep play threat they saw against the Bucs and so the running game was able to blow up the point of attack. If the broncos decide to stack the box, then romo and witten/crayton/austin/williams will have a big day. Run blitzes = big passes if the play calling fits.

I’m not worried about our running game…it’s going to be more of a question of which defense shows up. If they can do as good of a job stopping the run and improve in their pass coverage I see 3 – 1 in two teams’ futures.

by SDTrueblue on Oct 1, 2009 12:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

Didn’t read the blurb in the comments about Dallas D. Vs. Denver O. but I think you’re dead on. If the cowboys can tackle and get pressure this is an easy victory. If not…well then it gets a little dicey

by SDTrueblue on Oct 1, 2009 12:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs