Analysis of Roy Williams trade.

To start, I'd like to say that the tone of this post will actually be in defense of the trade regardless of all of the available hindsight.

First of all, the trade was Roy Williams and a 7th (210th overall) round pick for a 1st round pick (20th overall), a 3rd round pick (82nd overall), and a 6th round pick (192nd overall).  I think most people would agree that the difference between the 6th and 7th round picks is negligible in terms of value.  The old Jimmy Johnson chart actually has the difference as 7.2 points which is about the worth of a 7th round pick. 

So if you accept that the late round picks are a wash, then you are basically looking at the 1st and 3rd round picks.  The following year, 2009, Roy Williams was scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent.  So you can come to the conclusion that both picks were wasted.  It should be noted that teams rarely give up players without some value in return.  I refer you to Matt Cassel who was franchised by the Patriots and traded for a 2nd round pick.  I also will remind you of many articles that suggest that the Patriots took too low an offer as they could have easily have received a 1st round pick in a 3 way trade involving the Broncos. 

Either way, the new front office regime in Detroit would unlikely just let Roy Williams walk away with only a compensatory pick coming back to them.  So Roy would be franchised and while Detroit would not refuse any offer less than two 1st round picks, the market value for him would probably be a first round pick.  Who would be the players involved, the Cowboys, the Redskins, and the Giants.  While it would be unlikely they would offer a 1st and 2nd or better, it's not inconceivable that a 1st and 4th would be put on the table, and with the Redskins you never know, they could have traded a 1st, two 3rds, and a 2nd in 2011.  Great you say, he would be their problem now.

Problem you say?  There was a problem on the 2008 Cowboys team who created a less than harmonious locker room vibe.  With Roy signing elsewhere, the WR staff prior to the draft would have included TO, Crayton, Austin, and Hurd.  with that talent in place, do you believe that Jerry Jones would have banished TO to the nether regions of Buffalo?  TO was a scape goat in what was an injury riddled 2008 team, but the man also couldn't keep his mouth shut and I don't believe ever took personal responsibility for his poor play.  With that talent in place, 2009 may have been a replica of 2007 (13-3), but it also could have been a replica of 2006 (a playoff team without a playoff victory).

Roy Williams acted liked a "co-factor" (for those biology fans out there) and aided in the jettisoning of TO.  While the team isn't in the Super Bowl, they certainly seemed headed in the right direction.

Now back to the picks.  With Roy elsewhere, maybe a WR is a priority in the draft.  We all know that Maclin fell to the later portion of the round.  Keep in mind though, that the Eagles traded up into the 19th spot (one spot ahead of the Lions where the Cowboys would have been drafting).  Maybe the Eagles snake Maclin from the Cowboys if Jerry was being patient, or maybe the Cowboys trade up into the first round and get him.  The funny thing is that if they trade up (as the previous 3 picks (17, 18, & 19) the team traded down), they would literally be trading a first and a third and getting back a 4th if you follow the value chart.  So the difference in value here is really the value of a 4th round pick. 

In an ideal world, what would happen is that we would pick up Roy Williams as a free agent, not having to give any picks to Detroit, send TO a Dear John letter, and then Philly picks Maclin and we subsequently take Michael Oher at left tackle, then in the 2nd round, take Phil Loadholt for RT (both of which started this year and played very well), and then moved Doug Free (who also played well) to guard.  Suddenly, we have the same WR corp, and a completely young and refurbished offensive line.  But that is a tangent that is wholly not connected to the real world. 

To surmise, the production on the field is what makes this a god awful trade.  Roy hasn't produced at the level of a 3rd rounder, let alone a 1st and 3rd.  But as a trade is concerned, it wasn't that bad.  The sixth and the seventh are a wash, the 3rd rounder would have been necessary if trading up in the first round and the Cowboys only overpaid by a 4th rounder, and while you can play the what if game all day long, it's not outside of the realm of possibility that we would have thrown away those picks on players that wouldn't be on the team in 2 years (James Marten, Isaiah Stanbeck, Anthony Fasano, Kevin Burnett, Jacob Rogers, Stephen Peterman, Al Johnson, Antonio Bryant, Derek Ross...)