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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Sunday Stat Nuggets: North Texas Series, Playoff Chances, Prolific Passing And More

Nervous? Excited? Worried? Whatever your state of mind this Sunday morning, there's still a couple of hours left before the Cowboys game in the afternoon. What better way to calm the nerves than to read a post with stats designed specifically for that purpose?

In preparation for this afternoon's game, and with the best regards of the Cowboys media department, we take a quick look at the history of the North Texas Series, predict a very comforting game outcome and review where the Cowboys rank offensively and defensively so far this year.

The NFL media department contributes the remainder of today's pre-game stat nuggets: Why every single NFL team is still in the hunt for the playoffs - at least until this afternoon, which highly unlikely QB just joined the ranks of the very elite in the NFL and what little obscure factoid Randy Moss and Jerry Rice may have in common.

Star-divide

The North Texas Series

The Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers have traveled to play Dallas six times. The series is evenly split, with each team winning three of those contests. Three of those six games have been Thanksgiving games - and the Cowboys lost all three.

In non-Thanksgiving games, the Cowboys are 3-0 vs the Oilers/Titans and have outscored them 93-40. A continuation of this trend would make a 31-13 Dallas win seem like a likely outcome.

There's always hope no matter what your record - at least through week four.

Up until this Sunday, every NFL team was still in the playoff hunt no matter what its record was. Since the 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990, 87 teams (36.3 percent of the 240 playoff clubs) have advanced to the postseason after starting the year 2-2 or worse.

22 teams have even rebounded from a 1-3 or 0-4 record after four weeks to qualify for the postseason. Four of those clubs advanced to their conference championship games. Here's an overview of teams that started 1-3 or worse and made the playoffs since 1990:

Year Team Record
Playoffs
1990 Saints 1-3 Wild Card
1990 Eagles 1-3 Wild Card
1991 Jets 1-3 Wild Card
1992 Chargers 0-4 Div. Round
1993 Packers 1-3 Div. Round
1993 Oilers 1-3 Div. Round
1995 Lions 1-3 Wild Card
1995 Eagles 1-3 Div. Round
1996 Cowboys 1-3 Div. Round
1996 Jaguars 1-3 Conference
1997 Giants 1-3 Wild Card
Year Team Record Playoffs
1998 Bills 1-3 Wild Card
2000 Saints 1-3 Div. Round
2001 Patriots 1-3 Won SB 36
2002 Falcons 1-3 Div. Round
2002 Titans 1-3 Conference
2002 Jets 1-3 Div. Round
2002 Steelers 1-3 Div. Round
2004 Packers 1-3 Wild Card
2005 Bears 1-3 Div. Round
2007 Chargers 1-3 Conference
2008 Vikings 1-3 Wild Card
Top 10, Top 10

I'm not usually inclined to show off with pure volume stats, but this one is just too good to pass up:

By yards gained and allowed, the 2009 Cowboys finished with the league’s second ranked offense and the ninth ranked defense to give Dallas a top-10 finish in total offense and defense for the second time in three seasons under Wade Phillips. Three other teams also finished in the top-10 in both total offense and defense in 2009.

So far in 2010, Dallas is again one of four teams to be ranked in the top-10 in both total offense and defense. Shockingly, the table below contains the Oakland Raiders.

2009
Team Offense Rank Defense Rank
Packers 6 2
Vikings 5 6
Cowboys 2 9
Steelers 7 5
2010
Team Offense Rank Defense Rank
Chargers 1 1
Giants 8 3
Cowboys 5 7
Raiders 10 10
Dan Marino, Steve Young, Kurt Warner and ... Kyle Orton?

Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton, who is averaging 354.8 passing yards per game, has passed for a league-best 1,419 yards this year, the second-highest total in NFL history through a season’s first four games. Orton passed for a career-high 476 yards with one touchdown in a week three matchup against the Colts and has thrown for more than 300 yards in three consecutive contests.

And here I was thinking that nothing could shock me after the Raider reference above. Kyle Orton? Wow. Just Wow. The five quarterbacks who have thrown for the most yards through a season’s first four games:

Player Team Year Passing Yards
Kurt Warner
Rams 2000 1,557
Kyle Orton
Broncos
2010
1,419
Drew Bledsoe
Patriots
1994
1,417
Steve Young
49ers
1998
1,382
Dan Marino
Dolphins
1994
1,370
Welcome to the 17-game club, Randy Moss

Randy Moss in 2010 can become the sixth player since the bye week was instituted in 1990 to appear in 17 regular-season games if he competes in each of the 13 games remaining on the Vikings’ schedule. He has played in all 16 regular-seasons games 10 times in his career, including the past three seasons.

Players who appeared in 17 regular-season games in one year since 1990: Chris Singleton (NE/MIA, 1993), Dexter Carter (NYJ/SF 1995), Jerry Rice (OAK/SEA, 2004), Micah Ross (SD/CAR, 2004), Will Witherspoon (STL/PHI, 2009)

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Because,

you know Drew Bledsoe and Kyle Orton are the pinnacles of what we should hope for in a QB. /s

Kindle 3:16

by NYHorn on Oct 10, 2010 8:24 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

+1

rec’d for the Obvious Sarcasm

"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt

"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author

by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Oct 10, 2010 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

Dang,

I was hoping people would take me seriously and would start a flame war. That would’ve made my morning

Kindle 3:16

by NYHorn on Oct 10, 2010 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions  

so you weren't going for Sarcasm

Oops, my bad

"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt

"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author

by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Oct 10, 2010 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well it just seems obvious to me that

Drew What’s-his-name should never have been benched for Tony Romo. He was obviously the better QB

Kindle 3:16

by NYHorn on Oct 10, 2010 9:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

I've never been so insulted in my life

except when someone implied I was Colin Cowherd

Kindle 3:16

by NYHorn on Oct 10, 2010 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well now that we know that

I’ll start telling you about my wonderful home in mild California

Kindle 3:16

by NYHorn on Oct 10, 2010 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

The bye week has rarely affected better men...
I was hoping people would take me seriously and start a flame war.

Me thinks someone needs a football game.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.

by White Wolf on Oct 10, 2010 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Double Check of History

I love your stuff, OCC, but I’m not sure about all those 2002 teams you have listed in the table. The 2002 Saints should be 2000 instead, and the Bills should be 1998. The Patriots should be 2001. Looks like minor typos, but seeing seven 2002 playoff teams got my head scratching.

By the way, Kurt Warner was playing for the Rams in 2000, not the Cardinals.

Best wishes,
kindablue
Your humble pedantic servant

by kindablue on Oct 10, 2010 10:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Indeed

That does not make a lot of sense. I’ll fix it as soon as I’m back in front of a PC.

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 10, 2010 11:22 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

So based on historical ANYPA, we should win today, right OCC?

"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."

- John Wooden (God rest his soul)

by 5Blings on Oct 10, 2010 10:50 AM CDT reply actions  

you also might be interested in the game probabilities calculated by Brian Burke.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/07/week-5-n-f-l-game-probabilities-and-home-fields-value/

Passing efficiency and pass efficiency allowed are the most important variables but it also takes into account several other variables. Anyway, I thought you might find it interesting.

Burke gives Dallas a 70% probability of winning which is very good (80% is about the best you get).

So while that’s a good probability, there’s still a 1 in 3 chance of Dallas losing.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Oct 10, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hakeem Nick

i wanted so badly that draft I was pissed we didnt have a 1st rd pick
then when we got Dez I think I busted a nut

whats cool is I wanted Nicks, but I get Dez f’n Bryant who actually is alot like Nicks
same style when they get the ball with smooth cuts and moves
big fast and strong and these gigantic suction cup hands

by Archie Barberio on Oct 10, 2010 1:14 PM CDT reply actions  

still a little sad to think that was the RW pick

and it could have been Austin, Dez, Nicks ….

BTW, KC opened the game against Indy with a surprise onside kick.

The statisticians are changing the way the game is played.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Oct 10, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

i know

imagine Miles Dez and Nicks
f’n disgusting
but Roy is playing pretty well now, still that trade will never live up to the value of the picks invloved
Michael Oher Percy Harvin Hakeem Nicks take your pick or Roy Williams
not hating on Roy here, he is playing alot better he is still a talented WR

basically that whole 09 draft was a disaster, beides Butler Phillips and Buehler

by Archie Barberio on Oct 10, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

don't like the Giants coming to life....

makes today another must win, not that it wasn’t before….

by fiverings37 on Oct 10, 2010 1:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Giants winning big + no early game thread = Bad start to the day.

April -

My mother MADE me watch a Cowboys game when I was 8. Now 20 years, 300 taped games, 1 tattoo and 1 son named Dallas later, she says I'm obsessed. Sometimes you just can't please your parents.

by CowboysMom22 on Oct 10, 2010 1:57 PM CDT reply actions  

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