The 2010 NFL Winning Stats: The Good Stuff

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 16, 2010 5:00 AM CDT in Dallas Cowboys General

In this, the third and final post in the 'Winning Stats' mini-series after the quarter mark of the 2010 NFL season, we look at the stats that have really mattered in winning games so far this year.

Today we break down the stats that have shown a high correlation with winning through week five of the season: the scandalously overrated time of possession, the criminally under-appreciated ANPY/A as well as better know stats like field position, turnover ratio and passer rating.

1. Time of possession. Last week we saw that the teams winning the TOP battle were winning 65% of their games. After week five that percentage has even increased slightly to 66% (50-26). There definitely seems to be a correlation between winning and TOP, but as I mentioned in my earlier post, beware of cause and effect on this stat.

Winning probability by TOP, week 5, 2010
TOP Differential	30:00 - 32:00	32:01 - 34:00	34:01 - 36:00	> 36:00
Winning %-age	68%	52%	77%	73%
Winning record	17-8	12-11	10-3	11-4

And in case you were wondering, the Cowboys won the TOP battle in all four of their games. So much for this stat.

2. ANPY/A. My insistence on looking at ANPY/A has already seen me derisively labeled as part of the 'ANPY/A crowd'. But a 51-25 (67%) record for teams winning the ANPY/A battle isn't all that bad.

Winning probability by ANPY/A differential, week 5, 2010
ANPY/A Differential	<2.0	2.0 - 3.9	4.0 - 5.9	>6.0
Winning %-age	42%	83%	73%	100%
Winning record	13-18	15-3	11-5	12-0

3. TO ratio. Through five weeks, teams winning the TO battle are 53-10 (84%). "Win the turnover battle and you win the game". Sound advice. Of the 76 games played, 13 ended tied in turnover ratio.

Winning probability by TO ratio, week 5, 2010
TO Ratio	+1	+2	+3	> 3
Winning %-age	74%	88%	93%	100%
Winning record	20-7	14-2	13-1	6-0

The Cowboys offer living proof of this axiom: all three losses came in games where the Cowboys lost the turnover battle; in their sole win, the Cowboys won the turnover battle.

From week one, 2009 through week five, 2010, 73 teams have won the turnover battle by three turnovers or more. Those teams' record in the 73 games: 70-3.

4. Passer Rating. Through the first five weeks of the 2010 season, passing yardage is at an all-time high. Net passing yards for the first five weeks is 33,452, the most ever at this point in an NFL season.

"More teams are emphasizing the throwing game now," says NBC analyst and former head coach Tony Dungy. "The old adage used to be, 'You run the ball and stop the run to win'. More and more people think that throwing the ball is the way you’ve got to win now." Here's one reason: QBs with the better passer rating in the game are 54-22 this season (71%).

Winning probability by passer rating differential, week 5, 2010
Passer rating differential	0-20	20-40	40-60	>60
Winning %-age	48%	76%	85%	100%
Winning record	13-14	16-5	17-3	8-0

5. Field Position. With field position, every little bit helps. A 58-18 (76%) record is quite compelling evidence. After five weeks, winning the field position battle is the stat most highly correlated to winning in the league that I could find - outside of points scored of course.

Winning probability by field position differential, week 5, 2010
Field position differential	0-50	51-100	101-150	>150
Winning %-age	70%	71%	92%	82%
Winning record	16-7	17-7	11-1	14-3

No stat sums up the Cowboys' woes so far this season better than this stat. The Cowboys have a field position differential (own starting field position minus opponent starting field position) of -319 in four games, or -79 yards per game. The -79 yards rank the Cowboys 30th in the league, ahead of only the 0-5 49ers (-82) and the 0-5 Panthers (-94). Makes you think, doesn't it?

Leading the league in field position differential per game: The 4-1 Bears (+120) and the 4-1 Jets (+116).

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Comments

First

It sure would be nice to have a return specialist

It's only a dream till you write it down, and then it becomes a goal.
-Emmitt Smith

by Rohpuri on Oct 16, 2010 5:50 AM CDT reply actions

Just play us (Eagles)

you’ll be guaranteed to bring it back to at least the 40 every time regardless of who’s back there

"EFF YOU, WE'RE WINNING ANYWAY!!!!!!" (Bye, Dawk)

by jalarsen1 on Oct 16, 2010 7:10 AM CDT up reply actions

So it seems the Cowboys are not losing one of the winning stats, but several.

This is visible to the naked eye. You don’t get the impression by watching them that they’re a team that has figured out how to win. In spite of it, we seemed to almost pull a rabbit out of our hat on all three losses. Well, maybe not the Bears. Although penalties isn’t one of the major winning stats, we also lead the league over the last few years on this one. With all the cards stacked against us, we still have a chance to win. Imagine if we could ever get some turnovers, get special teams on track, and stop committing stupid penalties. We’d practically never lose a game.

In my world, whenever we have major obstacles to overcome, we always analyze what has happened, identify our two biggest problems, and implement a strategy to correct those deficiencies. Once we have turned the big two around, we re-analyze, identify our two biggest deficiencies, and develop a strategy to correct the next two big hitters. It has never failed us.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.

by White Wolf on Oct 16, 2010 8:26 AM CDT reply actions

In spite of it, we seemed to almost pull a rabbit out of our hat on all three losses

This is correct

Well, maybe not the Bears

This is incorrect. Dallas was driving to tie the game when RW fumbled.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Oct 16, 2010 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Thanks. I was struggling to remember.

Waiter, I’ll have another cup of joe…make that a triple expresso.

So we get rid of Flo, our top penalty hitter, and keep right on slaying the penalty beast. We knew there were several serious problems along the offensive line. It appears they’ve had it with Bigg. Pulling him from the Titan game was a big step for this coaching staff. It, at least, quelled that jail break pass rush. Releasing Brewster was another sign they’re looking for solutions. The coaching staff seems to have relented on plan A. Now, we’ve got to slide some help over to Columbo.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.

by White Wolf on Oct 16, 2010 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions

It irrtates that NOW the Cowboys are addressing the line problems. Better late

than never, I suppose.

by Fernie67 on Oct 16, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions

9 Months too late

There’s a lot that could have been done if they started addressing it in Feburary instead of October.

Mid-season is a bad time to rebuild your team.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Oct 16, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions

more like 2 years

by foyesboys on Oct 16, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions

+1

by Fernie67 on Oct 16, 2010 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions

One sickening way to look at Flo's release and our continued penalties is...

Sadly, our team stepped up and someone has always managed to fill the penalty gap that left with Flo.

Let’s just hope that this game, no one steps up to fill Flo’s penalty gap.

When in doubt, empty your magazine

by MudMarine on Oct 16, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions

There is one other stat

that I would have liked to see in this comparison. Penalty’s and yardage compared with winning percentages. I would have to say that is one that we would be loosing as well. Another would be drive effeincy. I would bet we are loosing that one too.

The one thing that really sticks out to me is the TO ratio, we haven’t been a TO machine for probably a decade now. We have really stunk in that department. Our players don’t really make plays on the ball all that much. And that is something that really needs to be addressed sometime soon (with a new staff)

by textaz03 on Oct 16, 2010 10:33 AM CDT reply actions

Penalties

Penalties: 42-25 (63%), i.e. teams that were called for at least one penalty less than their opponents won 63% of the games.

Penalty Yards: 43-32 (57%). The detailed split for penalty yards are in a previous post. If your team gets penalized for up to 30 yards more than your opponent, do not worry. However, once you cross the 30-yard threshold, you should start worrying, as the odds of winning that game decline rapidly with every extra penalty yard tacked on.

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 16, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions

Cowboys and Packers

have at least 3 losses combined due mostly to penalties.

by foyesboys on Oct 16, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Wade doesn't have the personnel to execute his defense

Wades scheme comes from the "46’ defense Buddy Ryan created. it focuses on beating up the QB & forcing them to make mistakes but we don’t have the personnel at the safety & ILB positions to capitalize on the mistakes, add in man to man coverage & its a lot harder to get TOs from INTs.
most turnovers come from INTs or strip fumbles but we don’t do either one very well so teams are focusing on protecting there QB (RBs chipping/max protect) & its killing our CBs. Wades scheme will work (see the Jets for proof) but until he gets some playmakers or ballhawks then teams will continue to expose this personnel.
Brooking’s production has really dropped off & it would help if a younger faster Lee could step up even in the base defense. AoA could be the answer to FS but theres a lot of stuff he needs to learn before it can come together. next year would be more realistic for AoA unless Ball keeps standing around like a deer in the headlights.

by DCNation73 on Oct 16, 2010 11:18 AM CDT reply actions

Starting Field Position and Turnovers

Is starting field position nothing more than watered-down turnovers? In other words, is it the short fields that turnovers create that is reflected in these stats as opposed to the return yardage from kickoffs?

If you back-out the short fields created by turnovers and just leave in the field position from kickoff and punt returns (no Wade, a punt isn’t a turnover) does the stat still coorelate?

by Blue Eyed Devil on Oct 16, 2010 12:19 PM CDT reply actions

Not quite

of course turnovers play a key role in field position, both takeaways and giveaways. But the field position stat is also indicative of the strength of your kicking and kick return game. Also, keep in mind that a missed FG for example, although not statistically counted as a turnover, is very similar to a turnover in terms of field position.

One team in particular shows why field position is more than just turnovers: the Bears rank no.1 in average field position differential, yet over the course of the season so far they “only” have a +2 TO ratio. However, their starting LOS per drive is 36.5 (No.1 in the league), so their return game is a significant factor in their field position.

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 16, 2010 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions

That is interesting

My philosophy has been to discount the notion of “special teams aces” like Pat Watkins. Guys that can never start in this league but show up on special teams. With only 53 roster spots I’d rather churn the down-roster guys with the theory that anyone who can understand how to play linebacker, cornerback, or receiver can understand how to run down a field and make a tackle. So just churn the bottom of your roster to bring in new guys like Barry Church and Gronkowski to try to uncover those diamonds in the rough and have a really good special teams coach who can teach guys how to cover kicks.

But the dreadful performance of our special teams this year combined with the field position stats you’ve been showing are challenging my viewpoint.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Oct 16, 2010 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

And this is just a guess

but I think Jesse Holley was pulled up from the PS strictly for his ST abilities. It’ll probably be awhile we see him take a snap as part of the offense.

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 16, 2010 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions

I think this is true

even if Dez doesn’t play tomorrow.

by staubachfan on Oct 16, 2010 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

I think its more than just players' capabilities

There was an article on here a while back, forget who wrote it, about how 10 of the 11 spots on the coverage and return teams had changed in the off-season. That DeCamillis was essentially taking over a completely new team. I think the amount of disruption on special teams, even if you’re bringing in better “players” just the amout of disruption has hurt the ST units.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Oct 16, 2010 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Sad but true

That post was from rabblerousr, suggesting that Coach Joe D put out an APB for special teams players.

by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 16, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Our ST and SD's ST have had a ton of turnover

and have had equally disasterous results

by foyesboys on Oct 16, 2010 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Overrated Defense

I have thought for years that this defense is way overrated. While most fans love to hate on the offense, the problem is this defense commits two major crimes..They don’t get turnovers and they don’t seem to be able to stop the other team until they get on the wrong side of mid field..

Just another to fire Mr Fix-it

by bevomav on Oct 16, 2010 1:26 PM CDT reply actions

Starting in the Bucs game in 2008

up untill the last game of 2009, there is NO WAY you can call this defense underrated. They held something like 16 of 20 teams they played under their season average. The defense was absolutely helped out by the offense taking care of the ball a little better last year, sure, but you can’t discount excellent performances against the Bucs, Redskins,Giants, Steelers in 2008 (we went 3-1 with definitely poor offensive play) and games against Carolina, Denver,Atlanta,GB,Philly 3 TIMES, Washington twice, SD and NO last year. We struggled in the fourth in some of those games, but in quite a few of them, the only reason we won or were in them in the first place was the play of the D.

Now, if you want to argue before that point in 2008, or this season, then I agree with you – our defense looks/did look overrated.

by foyesboys on Oct 16, 2010 11:38 PM CDT up reply actions

in this line....

here is NO WAY you can call this defense underrated.

do you mean over rated? Just curious cuz that is throwing me a little.

"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt

"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author

by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Oct 17, 2010 1:04 AM CDT up reply actions

We need more guys on D who make plays on the ball

Jenkins is our best guy right now and Newman has gotten better at it recently. I’m about done with Scandrick, he just never makes a play on the ball. Sensabaugh I think has the ability but we haven;t seen it yet. Sean Lee should see more time in the nickel as well as Leon and Jason Williams. Jason at least got his hands on the ball last week. James and Brooking are 2 down players at this point.

by houseofprime on Oct 16, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions