The Curious Case of Wade Allen Phillips and the Stifled Genius of Jason Calvin Garrett
by G_SWAG on Oct 30, 2010 5:46 AM CDT
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PrintThis is my first well thought out fanpost and brevity is something I am averse to. Today, I’m going to look at Wade Phillips the head coach; how his defensive philosophy impacts his teams and the tragic yet predictable downfalls that his teams inevitably experience. Please note, I like Wade Phillips I really do; but nice guys finish last, the inmates are running the asylum; and you are what your record says you are. Feel free to add your own cliché ad nauseum, but with this I present to you The Curious Case of Wade Allen Phillips.
In 1993 the Denver Broncos chose Wade Phillips as their head coach, he had a stint as an interim head coach under his belt and his defensive mastery was something that caught the Broncos’ eye. Reeling off a disappointing 1992 season, the Broncos’ defense had allowed 329 points despite generating 32 turnovers, and their offense managed to only score a meager 262 points. The benefit of Phillips and his coaching staff was felt immediately - the defense vastly improved, their points allowed dropped to 284 and the Broncos came up with 43 sacks while generating 24 turnovers. In turn the offense responded with a season in which they scored 373 points and ranked 3rd in the NFL. Unfortunately, they finished the season 9-7 with no play off wins.
Expectations were high entering the 1994 season; John Elway and the improved defense were seemingly poised to make a run at the playoffs. Unfortunately, the defense faltered; generating only 18 turnovers and 21 sacks. The offense in turn scored 347 points which paled in comparison to the 396 points scored against the defense. The Broncos went on to finish 7 and 9, with no playoff victories and a coach that seemed to take command in his first season of head coaching experienced an abrupt collapse. This would be Wade Phillips final year in his brief tenure as head coach of the Broncos. He would bounce around in the league until finding another head coaching job with the Buffalo Bills.
In 1997 a Buffalo Bills team went 6-10 coming up with only 16 turnovers on defense, allowing 367 points scored against; all the while scoring a measly 255 points on offense. They did however amass 45 sacks, and seemed to have the personnel to turn things around if only the right leader of men joined the team. Not being able to find one, they soon settled for Wade (cheap shot, I know).
The ’98 Bills exploded onto the scene, mythically starting 0-3 while playing base defense in order to lull their opponents into letting their guards down. This year the defense came up with 22 turnovers, including 6 interceptions by FS Kurt Schulz, while gladly receding on their sack total by 14 to 29. The offense scored 400 points and the defense helped them hold onto a +11 turnover advantage throughout the year and bent but not broke to the tune of 333 points allowed. These Bills went 10-6 and Wade’s presence immediately transposed the win loss column. While they didn’t win a playoff game they could hold their heads high going into the next season.
1999 was an odd year for the Bills. Their numbers weren’t as glamorous and yet they won even more games. Wade’s players had bought into his system and oddly similar to the Cowboys’ ‘09 stout defensive finish; the Bills generated less turnovers (15), less pass rush (24 sacks) and yet allowed only 229 points defensively that year. In two years, Wade Phillips had made a wooden bend but don’t break defense into one akin to solid steel; bend only slightly for we are unbreakable. Oddly enough, this philosophy while good on paper led to a pared down offense. The offense plummeted and scored 320 points that season with a -6 turnover differential. They were afforded an 11 and 5 record, followed by another acerbic playoff exit. This playoff loss was of special note, after having kicked the game clinching field goal the Titans immediately returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown; winning the playoff game and spawning the Music City Miracle that the franchise has clung onto since. Music City nothing, now knowing Wade Phillips’ neglect of the special teams intimately it’s not surprising that he lost in such a humiliating manner. It’s disappointing that he never seemed to learn from this mistake and has allowed special teams gaffes to directly impact the 2010 Cowboys season record.
Regardless, with the turn of the new millennium it was time to either put up or shut up. The bend but don’t break defense that helped to win so many games the prior year was faltering. In a disturbingly similar tale to the one we now face with our ‘Boys; the defense gave up 350 points and the offense continued to suffer behind the methodology of Wade; scoring only 315 points.The Bills' offense steadily declined under Wade Phillips, and the excellence of execution that was his 3-4 defense was now disparagingly listless and helpless.
This is where our paths cross, and our tales converge. The ’06 Cowboys under Parcells had scored 425 points, allowed 350 points while cashing in on 16 interceptions (5 by SS Roy Williams, oddly enough) generating 24 total turnovers and 20 sacks. This team was already on the rise, it just needed someone to guide them towards their ultimate goal.
The 2007 Cowboys enjoyed five Pro Bowlers on defense; besides T-New and D-Ware our insanely talented players included the elite all around strong safety Roy Williams, ball hawking free safety Ken Hamlin, and a runaway freight train also known as Greg Ellis (who says Cowboys players are overhyped, the general consensus is we have the most talent at the league! Look, look at our Pro Bowlers). The defense generated 18 picks, 25 turnovers, and a monstrous 41 sack season. We finished 13 and 3 allowing 325 points while scoring 455.
2008 was a different story altogether. The defense had a meager 7 interceptions, one of which came from Greg Ellis; another monstrous 42 sack season ensued but the defense allowed 365 points and the offense scored only 362 points – with a caveat, Tony Romo went down that year and flight 909 Brad Johnson crashed and burned Garrett’s offense. We all know we went 9-7 missing the playoffs by a single game.
’09 was another statistically odd year for the Cowboys – and yet one that falls in direct correspondence with Wade’s second year with the Bills. He finally had all the pieces to his glorious puzzle, his bend but don’t break defense that would force turnovers by making the other team punt the ball. And it did, there were only 10 interceptions last year, 9 from the secondary discounting Anthony Spencer’s pick. There were only 17 turnovers total on the year, and "only" 32 times a quarterback was dropped by the defense. However, the offense scored 361 points while the defense allowed only 261 points. We all remember the beautiful playoff win against the Eagles, and yet are forever forced to bear the shame upon the Cowboys’ household after that absolutely embarrassing loss to the Vikings.
The 2010 projections fall in line with Wade Phillips’ final seasons with the other teams, although the projections will almost assuredly be worse than they project. With Tony Romo we were on track to score over 366 points this year. I say over 366 points because we tend to have high scoring games against our division rivals not named Redskins, and the Colts/Packers defense have more holes than Swiss cheese which oddly enough is also an apt description of their lineups due to injury. While our upcoming schedule was unfavorable to our team as a whole with not a lot of sure wins, we could still generally rely on our Offense even bearing in mind our worthless offensive line. What's even more troubling is that so far our defense is on pace to allow a mind blowing 405 points – and remember that we haven’t even finished playing the Manning brothers’ aerial attacks, Michael Vick’s high flying Eagles, or even the injured yet still dangerous Packers’ offense. It wouldn't surprise me if that number approached 450.
A stark common thread runs through all of these stints as a head coach; for all of the initial success it’s ultimately the defense that will fail Wade Phillips’ teams. It’s flabbergasting, and yet it makes cold, calculating sense. The subject has been touched on multiple times. The way the defense is designed makes it especially hard on the offense; giving them long fields to work with and making for drives in which one false step results in a meager 3 points or a punt and another long field to work against. What’s so ironic is that Wade’s defenses have surrendered the fewest points when they generate the least amount of turnovers and pass rush. Is this by design? Or is it just a by product of the timid philosophy Wade brings to the field.
Look closely at the numbers, barring the first year; each time Wade Phillips’ defenses have gone from surrendering over 300 points to surrendering less than 300 points for the year the offense takes a similar hit in production. The Bills scored 80 less points the year Wade’s defense made a similar shift in points allowed. The Cowboys made a similar shift in ’09*. On the other hand, whenever Wade’s defenses increase in the number of yards allowed from the previous year they can do so at an amazing rate, surrendering over 100 more points in his last season as head coach than in the season previous to that. This year in Dallas, our offense was on pace to score even more points than we had last year and yet here we sit at 1 and 5, Wade's defense making a sky rocket eerily similar to his last season in Denver when they went 7 and 9 and in Buffalo where they went from 11-5 to 8-8.
I'm going to go ahead and say it, Wade's defenses are selfish. He eschews the special teams and places excessive emphasis on one side of the ball. In fact, it seems to me that every single defense that Wade Phillips has run has an almost exceedingly more talented Offense on the other side to make it sparkle. Why does a defense work best when it doesn't optimize it's pressure and force turnovers? Because it's the offense making the defense look good; giving them tons of room to maneuver with long fields after sustaining equally long drives against the opposing offense. Unfortunately, they can only carry the burden for so long before they struggle under the might. How many defenses in this league do you know that equally drag down the offense the more successful they are? How many defenses do you know that can literally blow up an entire season just by playing slightly worse than the previous year? How many defenses do you know that can become a boundless black hole, giving up more than 100 points compared to the previous year with similar personnel?
However, that's what makes Jason Garrett's offense that much more remarkable.
It hasn't buckled under the might has it? In fact it's flourished under the pressure. Say what you will, but in 2007 Jason's offense scored the most points second only to the record setting Patriots. That's the last time the O-line played even semi-decently. This year we were 6th in the league in red zone scoring, Garrett made the adjustments that were necessary making last year an anamoly. Every other team that was dragged down by the the eventual self immolation of Wade's defenses had absolutely grinded to a halt, being a mere shadow of its former self. Not Jason Garrett's. You want to point at all of the yards the Cowboys have gained without scoring points? You need to point directly at the defensive coordinator. In fact, it's Jason Garrett's game plan that has enabled Wade's defense to look good. They surrendered approximately 250 points last year because of the long drives, because of the exceptional special teams work, because of Jason Garrett and Joe DeCamillis. Think about it, as a Dallas fan it pains me to say that the writing has been on the wall for a very long time - a quick look at Wade's history may have prepared us for what was surely to come. That time is now, and that my friends is the very Curious Case of Wade Allen Phillips, next time we'll look at the Stifled Genius of Jason Calvin Garrett.
*(please note the statistical anomaly inherent in the year ’08 when Tony Romo went down, we can easily expect the numbers to have been well above 400 points, making the drop off a bit more similar to the stark Bills’ drop).
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Nice read and great effort. Rec'd
While I don’t agree with all the analogies you’ve drawn over Wade’s career, I do find them intriguing. I also think that while Wade has gotten a lot of flak as the HC, as a DC he’s been flying under the radar so far. I like your point about the offense carrying the bulk of the load:
The way the defense is designed makes it especially hard on the offense; giving them long fields to work with and making for drives in which one false step results in a meager 3 points or a punt and another long field to work against.
I firmly believe this season is squarely on Wade the DC. The offense has held up its part of deal for the most part, the defense has not delivered.
Looking forward to your next post.
by One.Cool.Customer on Oct 30, 2010 8:22 AM CDT reply actions
Good article. Interesting approach. Rec,d
The questions about the rapid decline of the defense this year have been mentiioned in
many posts this year. Yes there has been personel changes, but Brookings, Sensi, Jenkins, Spenser, Scandrick and Ball all having sub par seasons compared to last , just seems strange. Still working out why myself, but you offer some interesting thoughts. Look forward to the next post.
Thank you oldboys.
And I definitely find it very troubling that a lot of our defensive players have hit a wall. Instead of improving from last year many of them seem to be regressing. The main reason I believe our ‘backers have hit a wall is Wade Phillips’ refusal to play rookies, lacking foresight and ultimately costing himself in the long run over the years. Who’s spelling DeMarcus Ware? Just look at the Giants, in the long run it’s better to have your veteran with nearly a full tank of gas for a majority of the plays than to have him out on the field. I’d even argue that sending Sean Lee on Brooking’s blitz would ultimately generate more success this year than what is has done so far (I call this the fail blitz, where the opposing quarterback just looks at Keith Brooking lined up close to the L.o.S. in a rushing stance and then smiles to himself thinking about the abuse he’s about to dish out on Scandrick).
I fear that the Secondary’s regression falls upon Dave Campo. Scandrick isn’t turning his head around, neither are Gerald or Ball for the most part. Scandrick’s been caught flat footed more often than not and Jenkins is trying to play his position and the safety’s position because he doesn’t know if he’s going to get the help he expects or not.
The outlook looks very bleak, I don’t know if Scandrick can be salvaged at this point but like others I hold out optimism that he can given his excellent rookie season. Sensabaugh has all the physical tools to get the job done as well, but for some reason just can’t put it all together to make the play. I keep seeing flashes of Sensabaugh running stride for stride with the electric Percy Harvin; in perfect coverage but not ever being able to locate the ball and ultimately giving up that touchdown, that could have just as easily been a game changing interception.
Rookies were out there on several series today
They had their ups and downs but at least they were trying. It was uncanny at the game. By the end of the first quarter, you could just feel the Give Up in the Cowboys.
Garrard said he could feel the Cowboys give up...now thats sad! GARRARD
Even a turd in the bowl can occasionally score a goal...
great stuff
rec’d that
really enjoyed that man, seriously
you write very well
also so a comment on Cowboys Nation about Andrew Luck, I agree
keep it coming man great post
by Archie Barberio on Oct 30, 2010 10:09 AM CDT reply actions
Thank you Chia [;
And hey, the way things are looking right about now Luck might not be that far out of reach. The winless Bills look like they might be coming on strong with the Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Browns already have one more win than us, and Detroit has been playing hard, hard fought losses against quality teams. It looks as if right now our competition for that top pick is going to be either the 49ers or the Panthers, and to be honest I think the 49ers are going to be able to win a few more games under Singletary. Here’s to you Clausen, we’ll see how badly you want the starting QB job if you can avoid having your team slotted up to pick Andrew Luck.
no doubt man
I know if Luck is there it might be hard to pass up and I would love that draft pick
look what happened with Aikman, we never got the next guy
I love Romo and I always have been his biggest suporter
I think Romo has def at least 3 years left of playing at a very high level
but I never want to see us crippled again without that next guy being brought along to be given the keys to the franchise
not getting the next QB after Aikman set us back like ten years until Romo came in the Monday night game
if Luck is there, you draft him, start preparing him and coaching him as your next franchise QB until Romo is done
by Archie Barberio on Oct 30, 2010 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Nice write up
Cannot agree with your conclusions, though.
I went back and watched every game from last season and while Dallas was pitiful when it came to scoring points, the defense not only kept the team in most games, it was a defense that was very difficult to score on, even when faced with a short field to defend.
Look, no one’s been a harsher critic of wade than I have (ask OCC), but no season is quite like another and to say Wade places undue emphasis on the side of the ball for which he has the most expertise is like saying Sean Payton does the same for offense. In essence, I’m not sure you’ve said anything at all there.
Wade has been in an untenable situation with Jason since this whole thing started. He is THE ONLY COACH who didn’t hire his assistants.
As for Garrett, his offenses have not ever had any sort of identity. Aside from 2007, where he caught lightning in a bottle with Barber having an amazing year, T.O. still being in his prime and most important, the O-line performing at a very high level, he has not adapted, not evolved as a game manager, not helped this team get into a rhythm.
No, there’s no safe harbor in Dallas for Garrett either. I think when this season is mercifully over, neither of the two protagonists in your post will be working for Jerry Jones.
Again, good read.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
How about some subjective grades to the offense and defenses of Wade’s throughout the years?
Using profootballreferences’ simple rating system, with 0 being average:
’93 Broncos – Offense scoring a 4.6, defense scoring a 0.4 (4.2)
’94 Broncos – Offense scoring a 1.3, defense scoring a -4.6 (5.9)
’98 Bills – Offense a 4.4, defense a 0.7 (3.7)
’99 Bills – Offense -0.2, defense a 7.4 (-7.6)
’00 Bills – Offense 0.5, defense a -0.5 (1)
’07 Cowboys – Offense 7.8, defense 1.7 (6.1)
’08 Cowboys – Offense 1.7, defense -1.2 (2.9)
’09 Cowboys – Offense 0.4, defense 6.7 (-6.3)
’10 Cowboys – Offense 4.2, defense -2.9 (-7.1)
If you’ll notice a theme here, it’s that when the Offense is continually rated +3 or more higher than the defense – and like I touched on earlier; in the 2 seasons in which the bend but don’t break defense has surrendered the least amount of points and generated the least amount of turnovers; their offense has struggled mightily. Also of note, the following seasons see an astounding drop in points allowed. A pattern is a pattern, Wade’s defenses are more often than not only slightly above average or slightly below average in points allowed while not forcing very many turnovers. And years in which his defenses are “dominant” only place a greater than usual burden on the Offenses, followed the next year but a staggering defensive collapse. O.C.C. has touched on the misleading Red Zone efficiency statistics of last year, and that’s not even including drive killing penalties that occur near the end zone.
On the other hand, I can definitely agree with you that Wade is in an odd position by not having been able to hire his own coordinators, but by the same token I think that would apply to Jason Garrett as well. In fact, Jason Garrett has probably had less personnel say so than Wade Phillips himself; but when he does make a move it’s a bold one. Conjecture, it was Jason who made a stand for cutting T.O. not Stephen Jones. Conjecture, Jason Garrett didn’t hand pick Roy Williams of the Lions to play in his offense. I’ll say it now and I’ll say it again, if both Wade and Jason have their left hand hog tied behind their back then we better be grateful Jason has one mean right hook.
I really liked this G_SWAG
This was definitely an interesting read, and I agreed on some of your opinions, but I did not on others. For instance, in talking about Wade this way, I get the feeling that you were showing a pattern that happened at coaching stints before with Wade that possibly are happening now with him as Dallas’s Coach. And although there are some trends to look at and say this is just another “De Ja Vu” situation with Wade, I believe it is different.
For the most part, i believe that the defense has played pretty good the last two years leading up to this year. The kept us in games, and stopped our opponents very well. Maybe they did not create enough turnovers, and could stand overall general improvement. I’m not making excuses for the way they have played this year, and am not happy with what has happened, but for the last 2 years, I generally still have the same view as I stated about the defense.
the last two year though, the Onus has seemed to be on the offense to come through, and it hasn’t. Funny how it comes to this year, and we are talking about topics that seem to be about defensive failure. I don’t believe that Garrett’s “right hook” is there. With the kind of weapons Garrett has at his disposal, that “right hook” should be a “knockout punch”, and yet it isn’t. A good example of this is what happened in this past game against the Giants. When the offense had a chance to make it 14-0, they couldn’t seal the deal (the offense) once again. If anything, this fanpost of yours is very interesting from the perspective that it points out that when the defense has played good enough, the offense doesn’t, and visa-versa. But there is still that pretty good defensive performance leading up to this year, so i’ve got to still believe that the defense can regain it’s consistency, even though things are not looking that way right now.
We were almost going through these same kind of questions about the defense last year right before the New Orleans game, and we thought it was all over. Then, the defense came through- they harrassed and put pressure on Drew Brees, and generally were the reason we won that game. It kept our playoff hopes alive.
But as far as the offense is concerned, the pattern is clear. Alot of points, alot of yards, and alot of penalties and turnovers at the worst time. It seems like alot of the fanposts like to look for putting blame of what happens on either Wade, or Garrett. can it just be that since not either of them have complete control, that the combination of the two is not good, not working, accept that, and move on to a new coach that will be able to pick who he wants to coach his way, on both offense and defense?
Even if there is a defensive turnaround, your offense still has to have the trait that it will close out the game with smart play, because there will still be close games. This offense has not shown that kind of resolve yet. When it does, then I believe your points will have more merit in regards to Wade’s defensive performance patterns. Our defense is not a top 5 defense even if they turn things around, but I believe they can still be very good, and give the offense a chance. What will the offense do with that?
"Amongst the enemy's Lair, there will always be a DallasPalace!"
by DallasPalace on Oct 30, 2010 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's my problem with that logic
There is SO MUCH that goes into any offense’s statistical performance in any given season that it’s virtually impossible to use these things to tell you anything concrete.
2008 is a perfect example. Find anyone on BTB who would argue that the offense performed better last year than the defense and I’ll show you someone who doesn’t know a thing about football.
Dallas stuffed the run last year in a way they had not in a long time. They forced teams to throw the ball in difficult 3rd and long situations and, aside from some egregious examples like the Giants game where no one wanted to cover Steve Smith over the middle, they were able to take advantage of the predictability of their opponent. As fans, we can’t gripe about EVERYTHING. We bemoaned the lack of blitzing and sacks while Tuna was here. wade resolved that with his more aggressive defense. Now, given the team’s downfall, we want to deride Wade’s defense for turnovers? This merry-go-round needs to stop.
Again, I am not defending Wade nor did I EVER support his hiring. But in the same way, I think our OC, who may indeed be better suited as a boxer, has been predictable without HAVING to be predictable.
It’s time to clean house and build dominant line play complemented by good skill players rather than the reverse, which has been the case since Jimmy left.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Props
for watching every game again.
by RisingSunCowboy on Oct 31, 2010 3:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Having it on DVR really makes it easy...I love skipping the commercials!
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Nice post, I rec'd it too
These two portions of your post caught my attention
In 1997 a Buffalo Bills team went 6-10 coming up with only 16 turnovers on defense, allowing 367 points scored against; all the while scoring a measly 255 points on offense. They did however amass 45 sacks, and seemed to have the personnel to turn things around if only the right leader of men joined the team. Not being able to find one, they soon settled for Wade (cheap shot, I know)…The ’06 Cowboys under Parcells had scored 425 points, allowed 350 points while cashing in on 16 interceptions (5 by SS Roy Williams, oddly enough) generating 24 total turnovers and 20 sacks. This team was already on the rise, it just needed someone to guide them towards their ultimate goal.
Focusing more on the Cowboys, one has to wonder if things would have been different had this team pursued: Norv Turner, Bill Cowher, or Marty Schottenhiemer; or if we just gave the job to either Garrett or Sporano.
It's only a dream till you write it down, and then it becomes a goal.
-Emmitt Smith
Like the write up...Seems like you are saying what the majority of us think...
Even a turd in the bowl can occasionally score a goal...
Great read and you come to the same conclusion I have been preaching to some extent.
This offense has been under an enormous amount of pressure thanks to Wade’s defense. We constantly have long fields and very few turnovers to get easy points off of. That burden has clearly worn on the Cowboys offense as it is tough to be asked to go 80 yards every time.
I would also say that I think the offense in 2009 doesn’t get enough credit for helping to boost the ultimate numbers that Wade could brag about for his defense. From 2008 to 2009 the Cowboys turned the ball over 14 less times (from 33 in 2008 to 19 in 2009). That of course made the opposing offenses have to go much farther to score and took away many easy points for opposing teams. Looking back, I truly believe that our offense’s improvement from 2008 to 2009 can be counted as maybe the biggest reason why our defense got better in 2009 in PPG (despite not seeing any improvement in YPG, sacks, or anything else really).
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
Good write up.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Quoting yourself doesn't require your own name attached to it. I'm going to assume if there isn't anyone else's name attached it's yours.
If everyone on this blog were as well-spoken as you,
this site would be a much better place. You bring up some good points, but I simply can’t disagree with you. There’s an enormous disparity between yards gained by Garrett’s offense and points scored. That rests solely on the shoulders of Jason Garrett. The only success Garrett has had is due entirely to the talent of the roster that’s been assembled. Wade isn’t stifling Garrett’s genius, Jason Garrett is.
Bah.
Meant to say, “simply can’t agree.”
by Admiral Dallas on Oct 30, 2010 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
"Amongst the enemy's Lair, there will always be a DallasPalace!"
by DallasPalace on Oct 30, 2010 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
The yards to points disparity
is part of what he’s getting at in the article I think. The defense creates long fields for the offense which will lead to an offense with more yards and fewer points. If driving 40 yards still creates a punt because the drive started at the 20 more often than not, the stats will be as they are. A good stat to look at would be average starting position. I wonder if that is a stat Phillips teams are historically poor in. OCC?
by Kansas Cowboy on Oct 30, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I am at a loss here. (just like Wade and JJ)
If Garrett is so good at moving the ball between the 20’s, why does he fail in the red zone?
Does the length of the offensive drive really matter after the offense succeeds in getting the ball into the red zone?
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Nov 5, 2010 5:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Good article Swag, thanks for an interesting read.
I see things pretty similarly myself. Looking forward to part 2.
As an added note, this Cowboys organization has invested draft picks heavily in the defense for the last decade (Williams, Newman, Ware, Spears, Carpenter, Spencer and Jenkins are all first round picks). Does anyone think they’re happy with the end results here? Hiring a defensive guru like Wade Philips was done with the intention of him being able to turn those investments into a formidable unit. He hasn’t.
You can't deny that.
Although that also speaks to some of the picks.
The Carpenter pick has really put Dallas behind the eight ball as far as LB’s go.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Quoting yourself doesn't require your own name attached to it. I'm going to assume if there isn't anyone else's name attached it's yours.
Carpenter
Was a Tuna pick, not Wade. But I think sticking with Barbie, and trying to get something out of him because he was a first rounder, was a Wade decision.
"Amongst the enemy's Lair, there will always be a DallasPalace!"
by DallasPalace on Oct 30, 2010 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah I know it wasn't a Wade decision.
I’m just saying that decision as a whole has put Dallas behind.
I think ultimately they stuck with him because there was no reason to not try and get something out of him.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Quoting yourself doesn't require your own name attached to it. I'm going to assume if there isn't anyone else's name attached it's yours.
the 2009 draft
inserted that 8 ball in a tight orifice
by I_miss_Switzer on Oct 31, 2010 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
At this point I am worried that if we don’t make an immediate change, this season could cause irreparable damage to our younger players like Jenkins and Spencer. Spencer is one of the best run defenders in the league, but for some reason has done a poor job in run contain the last two weeks. Jenkins is going to suffer a confidence crisis if we can’t find a FS to help him out every now and then. And with Newman hurt, hes going to be thrown into the fire, because we obviously can’t leave scandrick 1 on 1.
Whoever the new HC is
he needs to be able to pick his own OC. If he cannot, then whoever we hired will not have been the answer. RHG, genius or not…. doesn’t really matter. It will only matter what new HC thinks of him.
But the similariities in Wade’s stints at diff franchises is pretty striking, & I greatly enjoyed the read.
"You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a 2x4." -- Dan Birdwell, Oakland Raiders
see
I dont hate Garrett, I think he has upside
now Wade has been coaching for 35 years, he just doesnt have any upside anymore
how long has Garrett been coaching? 5 years? Garrett down the road could be something
by Archie Barberio on Oct 31, 2010 11:06 AM CDT reply actions
What's the point? Your "reasoning" is so hateful of WP that it loses much
credibility. Give us an insightful, historical analysis of WP’s teams but this type of “analysis” just doesn’t carry any weight. Am I hating on you? Are you hating on Wade? Coaches must bear thew weight of criticism so why not their critics?
Hire Cowher next year
And I think the Cowboys will win a Superbowl within 3 years
Life without knowledge is death in disguise
Follow me on twitter @iktriad
by Zoltan from Budapest on Oct 31, 2010 5:53 PM CDT reply actions
Great article.
Great article, it was a great read. Whether or not you agree with everything the article says, I think all of us are in agreement. Wade has got to go. He’s no longer giving this team anything of benefit and is holding us back.
When I say that Wade places undue emphasis on one side of the ball; it’s not actually intentional, rather it’s inherint in the bend but don’t break philosophy. Great defenses are synergistic, fueling
the offense. Likewise a good offense can help the defense by dominating time of possession and driving the ball well. Can you imagine if Garrett went for it on every 4th down midfield and constantly gave the defenses short fields to defend? It would skew the
results of the defense and make them look vastly inferior to what they really are.
As for the criticism of Jason Garrett; was the 2007 offense as star studded as it seemed Admiral Dallas? Are the Cowboys really underachieving or are they actually maximizing their production given their flaws? You’ll have
to read my next post of this series for the answer to that.
The one argument I do see recurring is that the defense is one of the better defenses in the league, now is that really the case? I’d like to try to introduce some objectivity using PFB’s Simple Statistics
(a formula that mainly takes into account points earned) so we can take a look at who the Cowboys can compare to on both sides of the ball. I know we all have our silver and blue tinted glasses on but I think it is easier to be objective if we simply compare
ourselves to other teams with whom we have no affinity and also straight up to the rest of the NFL during Wade and Jason’s tenure here.
2007 Cowboys : On offense, the ’07 Cowboys offense (7.8) compared very favorably to the Indianapolis Colts (6.6), the ’boys had the 2nd highest rating to the Patriots (15.6, yikes!). On the other hand, the Dallas
Cowboys defense (1.7) compared favorably to either the Kansas City Chiefs (1.9) or the Buffalo Bills (1.5). The Cowboys had the thirteenth ranked defensive rating on the year.
2008 Cowboys : On offense, the ‘08 Cowboys (1.7) compared to the Pittsburgh Steelers (1.8). Bearing in mind the crippling effect that Brad Johnson had on our team, I’d like to speculate that the true totals should
have been at least near 3; comparing nicely to the Indianapolis Colts yet again (2.6) or the Packers / Cardinals (4.1) if you wanted to make that jump to 4. Even with that in mind the Cowboys still ranked 12th in the league, with the top offense of this year
actually being the Saints (6.8), however adding in a jump to 3-4 taking into account Tony Romo’s missing games would have put them well into the elite 10 of the league yet again. On defense, the ‘08 Cowboys (-1.2) was the exact same as the Packer’s (-1.2)
in the NFC but by comparison was worse than Oakland’s (-1.0). The Cowboys tied for 22nd/23rd in the league defensively.
2009 Cowboys : On offense, the ‘09 Cowboys (.4) compared well to the Cardinals (.1) and were a very pedestrian 15th in the NFL. The defense, on the other hand ranked 2nd in the league with (6.7) and was second only
to the Jets (7.1). This year is what I refer to as a statistical anamoly, and was actually one of my points of contention with Wade Phillips’ defense; when it works it puts a great amount of strain on the offense.
When defenses give up fewer points and generate a very low amount of turnovers; the offense sees long and grueling 60, 70 or even 80 yard drive in order to score 7. If they grind it out and gain 40 yards of offense
and then punt the ball only to have the defense make a stop at midfield which is followed by a long punt back to the 20 it makes for another 80 yard drive to try for 7 – it’s like trying to ice skate up a hill. Starting from the 30 for two drives would theoretically
make the offense have to move the ball 100 yards just to get into that 20 yard Red Zone to even have a shot at scoring a touchdown. Unfortunately, our players don’t drive down the field like robots and score a touchdown every single time they touch the ball
(don’t care who you are, it’s not going to happen in the NFL).
As far as efficiency, the numbers do indeed show that the Cowboys had to gain 124 yards of total offense for every 7 points they put up, meanwhile an opposing offense had to gain 141 yards
to hang 7 on the Cowboys’ D. That’s a terrific stat for the defense, but what gives?
Well, now take a look at the slightly less well ranked Jets, an offense that moved the ball 120 yards against the Jet’s defense put up 7 points, but look at the Offense; the Jets only had to drive the ball 103 yards
for every 7 points they put up. Do we really think that rookie Mark Sanchez and the Jet’s offense was really 24 percent more efficient than last year than Tony Romo and the Cowboys? Comparitively, the Eagles scored a (5.8) offensively (6th in the league)
- were the Eagles really inordinately superior to the ‘boys on offense?
And do we really, truly believe that our defense was only marginally worse than the game breaking Jets’ D? I don’t! I watched with envy whenever they would run an interception back and set up a ready made field goal
for their O. I laughed mockingly as their opponents tried to feebly convert a third and long only to have every receiver smothered, covered, and southern buttered. Shook my head in disbelief whenever Mark Sanchez would throw another pick only to have an immediate
onset of nausea when his defense would bail him out yet again. While not the case one hundred percent of the time, the massive amounts of yardage eaten up by Garrett’s offense made for plenty of runway for the Cowboys to allow an opposing offense either buckle
down and force a punt (and more often than not another long field for the Offense) or make the opposing Offense “settle” for 3 points (and then kickoff the ball making for … yet another long field for the Offense).
Regardless, let’s take a look at this season’s Cowboys through 6 games. Their (4.2) rating offensively compares closely to the Colts at (4.3) and we are scoring 7 points every 115 yards. They rank 6th in the NFL in
this statistic – the offensive leader being New England at (7.3). On defense the Cowboys (-2.9) compares well to the Oakland Raiders (-2.7), which actually places us in the dregs of the league, ranking 25th in the league. Opposing offenses aren’t even breaking
a sweat, only having to travel 88 yards for every 7 points allowed.
During today’s loss to the Jaguars, they had to drive the ball 77 yards for every 7 points they scored. I was watching the game, I know that the Cowboys on offense came up with abysmal turnovers (which were not necessarily
a byproduct of the scheme or the quarterback) – but the defense forced a punt twice in the first half. I know because I was just waiting for Dez Bryant to get a run at another return TD.
Looking at the numbers, is Jason Garrett’s Offense really the NFC Colts of the past few years (mirroring or besting their production consistently), or were 3 years of outstanding production an elaborate illusion compared
to 2009’s year when the Cowboys were not good but merely average (although our record and playoff wins intimate our offense still being potent).
Wade’s defenses are 20th in the league on average (on this scale) in their worst 3 out of 4 years, and even when factoring in the fact we finished 2nd in ‘09 his defenses would average out to rank
16th (15.5 to be exact) in the league over Wade’s reign. By comparison, Jason Garrett’s offense ranks in at 9th (8.75) in that 4 year time span. That’s including our abysmal ‘09 season per this scale, and that’s not even trying to adjust for Brad Johnson’s
time under the helm at ‘08.
Which is why I had to make it a point and elaborate that Wade’s defenses have been generally average, and the times they do excel it’s because the other side of the ball is able to move the chains with alacrity. And in general
throughout his coaching stints, when the much talked about bend but don’t break fails -it breaks wide open.
its cool
very nice post. I am waiting for the sequel to come out
"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt
"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author
Texas Rangers-2010 AL Division Champs-World Series Bound
by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Oct 31, 2010 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks for supporting with numbers what I've been saying for a while. The
O has been left with long drives to score (not a good thing) and poor field position because of the lack of turnovers and the bend-don’t-break philosophy. While the O and Romo have taken the heat for ages, the D have virtually, until recently, been given a free pass by many.
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