FanPost

Stephen McGee: Fighting the stats to be a viable NFL QB


Cowboys fans may be wondering what to expect if Kitna goes down and McGee has to play. Enter the Lewin Career Forecast named after researcher David Lewin. Lewin researched what metrics matter most in projecting QB success at the NFL level. His findings?

My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.

How does Stephen McGee measure on completion % and games started? Completion % is easily calculated from espn.com and is 59.5%. Games started isn’t as clear but it looks like 31 to me. So McGee’s stats are 59.5% and 31 games started. Where does that put him? Below is a summary of the 2010 QB prospects and McGee.

Completion %

Games Started

Colt McCoy

70.3%

53

Tim Tebow

66.4%

55

Sam Bradford

67.6%

31

Jimmy Clausen

62.2%

34

Tony Pike

61.7%

19

Stephen McGee

59.5%

31

So McGee comes in below Tony Pike. Here’s what ESPN had to say about Pike.

A borderline second-rounder, Pike just doesn't have the pedigree of a successful NFL quarterback. Bearcats fans can point to the stats of Aaron Rodgers (63.8 completion percentage, 22 games started) as a relatively close comparison, but there's a fair amount of players with ugly pro careers in that same space -- consider that Tommy Maddox (58.3 completion percentage, 23 games started), Heath Shuler (61.6 completion percentage, 24 games started) and even Akili Smith (56.6 completion percentage, 19 games started) have pretty comparable numbers.

The bottom line is pretty simple. If you can't complete more than 60% of your passes against NCAA defenses you aren't likely to do it in the NFL. It’s even more galling that Dallas used an early 4th round pick on McGee in 2009 which led to Dallas passing on a much better prospect (Colt McCoy) who was drafted in a similar area in 2010 (85th for Colt vs. 101 for McGee).

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.