Do Stats Equal Winning? Part 2

Last week, between O.C.C. and I, we studied nine boxscores, and somewhat determined that winning the stats doesn't really mean that you win the game.  That was the case for the New York Giants in Week 10, and Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl 30.  So, what in the world can you learn from the stats in a football boxscore.  After the Jump we will explore the ins and outs of Week 11, which is a typical week in the NFL.

Before we resume, I just need to state again that I will not do any point stats outside the final score, or halftime score in one case, and Punts once again.  In any case, on with the show.

Chicago over Miami: 16-0

The Bears got a shutout and did so for the first time in years.  Granted they did so against an injury depleted Miami offense, but that offense did do enough to beat up on Tennessee the previous week.  Outside the injuries (Brandon Marshall went down in the second quarter), it was the Bears defense that did more than enough to win.  For example, Miami was horrible on Third Down conversions going 1/11 compared to the Bears 10/18.  As a result, the Bears won almost every stat imaginable despite the Miami defense limiting Jay Cutler and the Bears offense to 268 yards on 68 total plays.  However, if this were to be the Super Bowl, Chicago would have the MVP and it would have most likely been Matt Forte who had the balance of 40 rushes on 135 yards and allowed the Bears to chew up almost 38 minutes on the game clock.  For the record, the key to beating up on the Bears is to make sure that you give Cutler a bad day, if not, this team will make a Super Bowl run.

Pittsburgh over Oakland: 35-3

However, when the Bears do get to the Super Bowl, their opponent could be the Steelers.  Sunday's game vs Oakland was a study in Pittsburgh Steelers football on the good side.  Like the Bears, the Steelers have a good defense and it showed in limiting the Raiders to two third down conversions in 13 tries.  Otherwise you wouldn't know from the stats which suggest a much closer game and includes Oakland trailing total first Downs by one and leading in total plays 65-64 while the Steelers led in Time of possession by almost six minutes.  If the Bears and Steelers were to meet in the Super Bowl, it would likely be somewhat of a defensive battle for much of the first half, but the Steelers defense will be unrelenting against the Bears offense and it would be just a matter of time before the Steelers offense finds their rhythm, even if you perform the pass rush against Big Ben.

Jacksonville over Cleveland: 24-20

This game is about as close to the Blunder Bowl (Super Bowl V) as you could get.  That is what happens when the winner commits six turnovers to the loser's one.  Thankfully, the game was close as it is a case of Jacksonville trying their darnest to win while Cleveland tries to beat themselves.  For the record, the game was won in the rushing category as Jacksonville had 11 rushing first downs, and 145 rushing yards to Cleveland's 88.  And that is on 28 rushes for 5.2 yards per carry compared to the Browns 3.4 yards per carry on 26 rushes.  That alone tells me that Jacksonville contained Peyton Hills.  Other than that, the game was won on fourth down where the Jags were 2/2.  Had the Browns made the stop either time, there is a good chance that they could have won the game.  For the record, I felt that Eric Mangini was unfairly let go by the Jets after the 08 season.  All he needed was a good quarterback while he build a good defense with the team.  Keep in mind that it was likely  Brett Favre that got him fired.  With the Browns, he has a good quarterback in Colt McCoy.  However McCoy needs a few good targets, and the defense needs to be stiffened up a bit.  As for Jacksonville, they will make the playoffs but need a better quarterback.  Hopefully for the rest of the AFC South, they fall into the Brett Favre trap in 2011.

Washington over Tennessee in Overtime: 19-16

All good things come to an end and streaks vs the NFC are no exception.  For the most part, this looks just like a replay of Super Bowl 30, but not really since Washington led on first downs with 32 and 23 of them passing first downs, had 465 yards on 86 plays with 358 of them coming on the pass, a 60% passing rate (tied with Tennessee, and a third down conversion rate of 50% (8/16).  The cream on the top is Time of possession which Washington Led with 40:09 minutes compared to Tennessee's 26:34 with some of those minutes in overtime.  What these stats tell me is that the Redskins did their troubles no favor because they beat up on a team that is struggling offensively and is praying for the Vikings to beat them up this Sunday in the same way the Eagles did a week or so ago.  In short, they won because they they caught a low point in the series "As the Vince Young Turns."  When Vince plays up to his ability, the Titans have nothing to fear because Tennessee would have won this game by the end of the first half.  Instead, they couldn't dominate a paper tiger Redskin defense.  One thing is for sure, the games between Washington and Minnesota, and Houston and Tennessee will be interesting this Sunday.

NY Jets over Houston: 30-27

Speaking of the Texans, they lost again and make Gary Kubiak a candidate for the next coach to get fired after Brad Childress.  They lost to what I nicknamed the Rex Ryan "Just Enough" defense.  For the record, the "Just Enough" defense is one where the Jets manage to hold off the opponent by a score good enough for the win.  That is reflected throughout the stats where the Jets won almost every stat in a close game and won the game.  For example, the Jets had 1 more passing first down than Houston and two more rushing first downs than Houston.  In Net Yards per rush, the Jets had 103 while the Texans had 97 (do the math).  The only reason why the Jets won the game was because the "Just Enough" defense held the Texans to a 4/12 conversion rate on third down while the Jets had a 7/15 conversion rate.  Could the "Just Enough" defense win the Super Bowl? It depends on the opponent.  If the NY Jets were facing Washington, it would be lights out for Donovan McNabb as the game could likely turn into a replay of Week 10 vs Philadelphia. On the other hand, a postseason rematch with Green Bay could end up being a replay of that game.

Baltimore over Carolina: 37-13

SB Nation's Jon Bois had a interesting article on today's front page.  In it, he states that among the interesting places to put a football game is at Bank of America Stadium in North Carolina while noting that he had the idea for the article after last Saturday's football game at Wrigley Field in Chicago.  Of course, that was an underhanded dig at the Carolina Panthers who lost big time to Baltimore this past Sunday.  Given what happened, the Panthers took a beating in the stats as well.  While they did win some numbers, including yards rushing and yards per rush, it is the Ravens that managed to pretty much win everything.  For the most part, this includes passing stats as it appears that the Ravens have their franchise Quarterback in Joe Flacco.  The Numbers are as follows: 278 total passing yards, with a 73% completion percentage, 7.7 yards per play, and 13 of the 22 first downs were on the pass play.  I am not saying that Baltimore has a good rushing team in place, but Joe Flacco's Super Bowl will be coming.  The only questions are when and not if, and if the defense can hold up before the Ravens need to rebuild.

Green Bay over Minnesota: 31-3

How do you fire a coach in the 2010 NFL.  Simple, lose big to the Green Bay Packers.  It happened to Wade Phillips and it happened to Brad Childress.  In all fairness, the stats make this game much closer than the final score.  For the most part, the Packers had much to celebrate in this game, and much of it is the fact that Brett Favre managed to hurt the Vikings more than the Packers.  Green Bay won this game by going through the air as they had 15 passing first downs, 283 of their 374 yards were through the air, and completed 23 of 32 passes for 8.1 yards per play.  Granted that might not win the Super Bowl, but the Packers are a team to be feared because their defense can make plays.  It also helps if you have a quarterback leading a munity against the head coach.  Brett "the clown" Favre should have been released weeks ago, but is lucky that Childress forgot to inform ownership that he released Randy Moss.  Only time will tell if the Vikings end their 8 game road losing streak vs Washington on Sunday.

Kansas City over Arizona: 31-13

One thing that helps the 2010 version of the Chiefs is that they are more efficient than the 2009 version.  They beat Arizona by running away with the game literally.  They also had more yards per play than the Cardinals at 6.6 yards per play on a total of 352 yards on 53 plays while Arizona had 5.6 yards per play with 382 yards on 68 plays.  Not to shabby for the NFL's most surprising team.  What also mattered is that Kansas City had 159 yards on 29 rushes.  I am not saying that those are key stats, but when you are more efficient, you usually come out the winner in the end.  Jason Garrett could do good to learn from this game.

Dallas over Detroit: 35-19

Speaking of Jason Garrett, how did he do in his second game as coach?  As it turns out, the game vs Detroit is almost a carbon copy of the game vs the Giants right on down to the game hero.  Again, the stats show a very close game with Dallas winning the following:

• First Downs: 19 to Detroit's 17
• Rushing FD's: 6 to Detroit's 3
• Fourth Down Efficiency: 1/1
• Net Yards rushing: 134
• Rushes: 30
• Average yards per rush: 4.5
• Completion percentage: 75%

The Cowboys also led in managing to avoid the sack more than Detroit and led 1-2 in turnovers as both teams lost a fumble, but Shaun Hill was intercepted once giving us the edge.  We also had the time of possession by a scant 8 seconds.  Like last week, given the stats, it is hard to tell how we exactly won this game.  I could say we made a key fourth down conversion, but take that away and we are most likely to have won the game 28-26.  All I am going to say is that if we continue to win in this manner, the NFL might have to take coach Garrett in for brain testing.  The Key here is that stats don't matter, but key stats matter and it shows in most of these games, and I have pointed them out to everybody.

Buffalo over Cincinnati: 49-31 (Cincinnati led at halftime: 31-14)

It is official, Cincinnati has the worst pass defense in the league.  This is evident on the fact that the Bills are the king of comebacks, and they did it on the pass to the tune of 308 yard passing and a 61 completion percentage.  Other than that, there is no reason for Buffalo to win for the most part.  If there was, there is a good chance that Buffalo would not be 2-8 on the season.  The only question mark for Cincinnati is when Marvin Lewis will be fired.

New Orleans over Seattle: 34-19

Though it doesn't look like it, welcome to a case of domination by New Orleans.  Like we had in most of the games, the stats are mostly really tight until you know one thing and that one thing is that the Saints know how to convert on third down.  Their percentage for this game is 73% and when you get at least a 73% conversion rate, you will win the game.  Like I said, most stats don't matter, but the passing stats do matter to Cowboy fans.  The Saints had 382 passing yards to the tune of 8.9 yards per play.  To win, the Cowboys need to pressure Drew Brees to no end and make him wish the game was over.  Yes Reggie Bush is one of the players on the team, but the Saints are protecting him for the playoffs.  The Saints will likely qualify based on their record.

Tampa Bay over San Francisco: 21-0

But the Saints will have to hope the Bucs fall.  That will not happen as long as they are beating teams that they need to beat and doing so in dominating fashion.  For the most part, Tampa Bay had 20 first downs beating SF 9-5 on passing FD, and 10-3 on rushing FD.  Tampa won total yardage 299 to 189 and got 4.5 yards per play on 66 plays.  They held San Francisco running backs to 71 yards rushing on 18 rushes while Tampa Bay had 162 yards on 42 rushes.  Finally Tampa Bay had a third down conversion rate of 50% (7/14) (compared to a San Francisco rate of 25% (3/12).  When you lose the game but win the stats, these numbers are usually the ones the coach trots out to the media, with the exception of third down conversion, but when you lose the stats and the game, life is horrible.

Atlanta over St. Louis: 34-17

Again, the Third Down Conversion proves to be the key stat.  This time around it is Atlanta with the 53% conversion rate compared to 10% for St. Louis.  Granted it also helps if you have 70 total plays compared with 54, but that tells us that the Falcons don't have ball control issues and this is reflective in the stats.  Right now the Falcons are charging toward the playoffs and home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.  The only question is, are the Falcons good enough to win the Super Bowl?  The answer may be yes if you count the Baltimore game as a sign.  Hopefully Jerry Jones will be a homey and let Atlanta use the Cowboys Valley Ranch facilities in February.

New England over Indianapolis: 31-28

Compared to Atlanta, the Patriots are a likely Divisional round upset waiting to happen.  That is what happens when you have a good team that wins only five stats.  For the most part, the stats won by Indianapolis occurred in the second half where the Colts had 467 total yards on 72 plays.  The only reason New England won is because Peyton Manning threw three interceptions,  That is tough for any quarterback to take, but it is also the reason why New England vs Indianapolis is the NFL's top match-up.  My fingers are crossed hoping for another playoff match-up.

Philadelphia over NY Giants: 27-17

What happens when you lose to the Cowboys at home in a new stadium?  I don't know, but the Giants know that facing the Eagles in Philadelphia isn't the best way to cope after losing to the Cowboys.  The key stats are the fact that the Eagles had more first downs than the Giants, had more rushes, and almost doubled the Giants in net yards passing, and total yards.  Oh yes, it also helps that you went 2/2 on fourth down and intercepted Eli Manning three times.  If there is anything Archie is happy about after this week, it is that both boys had bad days and will not show off each other for the next week or so.

San Diego over Denver: 35-14

Yet another example of total domination as San Diego had 18 First downs to Denver's 15.  However the moral of the story is that you better convert on third down to the tune of at least 50% (7/14 for San Diego) and not 8% (1/12 for Denver).  The Chargers had 400 total yards compared to Denver's 235 with 147 of them rushing yards compared to Denver's 63.  When you look at all the problems that San Diego had this season, it is clear that the rushing game isn't one of them.  Call me crazy, but Norv Turner earned another year as Chargers head coach based on this game alone.  Granted they will likely not make the playoffs, add a bit more defense and a wide receiver and San Diego could win 10 to 12 games next season.  As for Josh McDaniels, I expect him to be fired for mismanaging the roster.  The Broncos could have used a player like Payton Hills in this game.  Maybe as a outside threat to confuse San Diego's outside scheme.

So, what have we learned from our tour of the NFL.  Honestly I would like to believe Jason Garrett and say that stats don't matter.  He is wrong because they matter as long as they are key to winning the game.  Understanding the stats will go a long way to understanding the game itself.  The bad coaches throw caution to the wind and hope something sticks vs any given team.  The good coaches would scan the stats looking for the sliver lining in a loss.  An example would be Wade Phillips stating that Tony Romo had a better Quarterback rating than Vince Young in the Titans win over Dallas.  However, a great coach would examine the stats after every game to spot any weaknesses, and study any other stats and game film to gain an advantage over the other team.  That is how you win in the NFL.