Your Weekly Cowboys Draft Update - 12/16 edition
by TCBinNYC on Dec 16, 2010 5:24 PM CST
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PrintI'm an admitted Draft Dork. Prefer the term Draftnik, but not sure it’s as descriptive or appropriate. Anyway, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at where the Cowboys could potentially draft by week and who could be there. Hopefully, we will get some good discussion and participation.
Where We’ll Draft – If the season ended today, Dallas would draft 7th. This would be great. If we could somehow stay in the top 8, that would be perfect. The problem is we play two horrible teams (Washington and Arizona) one of which (Skins) we will probably pass in the standings come draft day. And who knows if Philly will have anything to play for by the last game of the season (other than humiliating their most hated rivals.) I fear we will drop in draft slotting. Here are the records of the teams vying for a top 10 pick:
Carolina: 1-12 Remaining schedule – vs Ariz, @ Pitt, @ Atl Predicted Record: 1-15
Cincinnati: 2 – 11 Remaining schedule – vs Cle, vs SD, @ Balt Predicted Record: 3-13
Denver: 3 – 10 Remaining schedule – @ Oak, vs Hou, vs SD Predicted Record: 3-13
Detroit: 3 – 10 Remaining schedule – @ TB, @ Mia, vs Minn Predicted Record: 3-13
Buffalo: 3 – 10 Remaining schedule – @ Mia, vs NE, @ NYJ Predicted Record: 3-13
Arizona: 4 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Car, vs Dall, @ SF Predicted Record: 5-11
Dallas: 4 - 9 Remaining schedule – vs Wash, @ Ariz, @ Phil Predicted Record: 6-10
San Francisco: 5 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ SD, @ StL, vs Ariz Predicted Record: 6-10
Tennessee: 5 – 8 Remaining schedule – vs Hou, @ KC, @ Indy Predicted Record: 6-10
Washington 5 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ Dall, @ Jax, vs NYG Predicted Record: 5-11
Houston: 5 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ Tenn, @ Den, vs Jax Predicted Record: 6-10
Minnesota: 5 – 8 Remaining schedule – vs Chi, @ Phil, @ Det Predicted Record: 6-10
Cleveland: 5 – 8 Remaining schedule – @Cin, vs Balt, vs Pitt Predicted Record: 5-11
Seattle: 6 – 7 Remaining schedule – vs Atl, @ TB, vs StL Predicted Record: 6-10
Oakland: 6 – 7 Remaining schedule – vs Den, vs Indy, @ KC Predicted Record: 7-9
St Louis: 6 – 7 Remaining schedule – vs KC, vs SF, @ Sea Predicted Record: 8-8
Based on this analysis, I think we will actually be drafting around 11th. Not bad, but probably out of range for one of the elite prospects. From what I’m reading, analysts are saying this is a really great draft at the top. The top 6 - 8 prospects seem to all be legitimate Top 5 talents. That’s why I’m so high on Dallas getting one of these elite guys. When was the last time we even picked in the Top 5?
Answer: Terence Newman (5th) 2003. Prior to that it was selecting Russell Maryland first overall 20 years ago.
Anyway, let’s take a look at the elite prospects:
QB (3) – Andrew Luck, Stanford; Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Cam Newton, Auburn. Some might disagree, but Jake Locker doesn’t seem elite to me. For those that hate on Newton, swap out Locker.
HB – None.
WR (2) – AJ Green, Georgia; Julio Jones, Alabama
OL – None.
DL (3) – Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson; Nick Fairley, Auburn; Marcell Dareus, Alabama;
LB (1) – Robert Quinn (DE/OLB), North Carolina;
DB (2) – Patrick Peterson, LSU; Prince Amukamara, Nebraska;
Just outside: WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State; DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa; OLB Akeen Ayers, UCLA; RB Mark Ingram, Alabama; DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue; DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State.
With no top rated Offensive Linemen, I think we can all agree we need to look to the defense. And any position on that unit could be significantly upgraded. Personally, I would be partial to the Defensive backfield, but BPA-defense should be the strategy.
As we get closer to the draft, and the draft slotting becomes more clear, we can take a look at who will be targeting QBs, what trades might be out there, and other key predictions (like I’m sure Detroit will somehow end up with my favorite player in the draft – Patrick Peterson) but for now, I will start out this series by looking at who some of the experts see going to Dallas in their mock drafts:
Source Date Updated Draft Pos Player
WalterFootball 12/16 1.7 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
2.38 FS Rahim Moore, UCLA
3.71 CB Curtis Brown, Texas
Draft Countdown 12/3 1.6 CB Patrick Peterson, LSU
FootballsFuture 11/25 1.5 CB Prince Amukamara, Neb
BleacherReport 11/24 1.8 DE Allen Bailey, Miami
CBSSports 12/15 1.6 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
TCBinNYC (me) 12/16 1.7 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
These are interesting, if nothing else. But let’s take a look at who was picked (or in some cases, who was available) with the 11th pick, assuming that’s a more realistic pick for the Cowboys:
Source Date Updated Draft Pos Player
WalterFootball 12/16 1.11 NT/DE Stephen Paea, Org St
Draft Countdown 12/3 1.15 NT/DE Nick Fairley, Auburn
FootballsFuture 11/25 1.12 NT/DE Stephen Paea, Org St
BleacherReport 11/24 1.11 FS Rahim Moore, UCLA
CBSSports 12/15 1.16 OLB Robert Quinn, No Carolina
TCBinNYC (me) 12/16 1.11 OLB Robert Quinn, No Carolina
These were the only ones I could find with a recent post date. So, what did we learn? Not much. Things will become somewhat clearer in the coming weeks. I’m hoping this might have been helpful or useful for some of you.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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nice job...
I was hoping someone would do a weekly post with a rundown of the records and remaining schedules.
As OCC said in a recent post, SOS could kill us in terms of draft position. If we go 2-1 down the stretch, we’ll drop from 7th to around 12th. A pick around 7 would be excellent given the seemingly elite talent at the top of the draft.
Not even a RT really worth the 12th pick though
We would need to trade down. But on that topic, I think there will be opportunities to trade at the top this year for this first time in a long time. There are three or four QBs who will go at the top half of the first round. And there are about 5 teams who will be looking.
Maybe we will fall in a spot that someone wants to move up and take a Cam Newton or Jake Locker before a team like Minnesota picks. I wouldnt be opposed to picking up a 2nd rounder to move back 3 or 4 spots, assuming all the top talent has gone.
It would be sweet to be able to pull off a deal like this: Trade 1.12 for 1.16 and 2.48. That would give us three picks in the top 50. We could maybe walk away with:
1.16 OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA (or OT Derek Sherrod, Miss St)
2.44 FS Deunta Williams, North Carolina
2.48 OT Nate Solder, Colorado
Yeah I wouldn't mind trading down a little bit
since I think 2nd round picks woudl be invaluable to help us help us hit our needs (specifically S).
With that being said though, if we slide down the draft order I don’t think we should keep from drafting a tackle just because a RT’s aren’t generally worth a first round pick. I say that because bookend tackles are extremely hard to come by in the NFL and it would be moronic in my opinion for Dallas to think they could get a legit tackle that could come in and start right away if they only use something like a third round pick on that guy. Plus, I seem to remain a guy named Ozzie Newsome drafting Michael Oher at #20 overall to play RT for them. I also would much rather Dallas take this chance to get an elite offensive tackle as opposed to hoping in the second round to get a possibly elite guard (which is much easier addressed in FA) or a second-tier tackle (if they are even there considering the run on tackles that usually happens – look at where Roger Saffold went last year).
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
Oher was pegged to be their future LT though.
Just transition into the NFL through the RT spot. I wouldn’t draft a T that high unless they could play both spots.
by somebodyquiet on Dec 16, 2010 11:09 PM CST up reply actions
I would take a Butch Davis coached FS in D.Williams!!!
Cowboys For Life!!!! Win,Lose,or Lose Horribly!!!
by NVCowboy4Life on Dec 17, 2010 4:31 AM CST up reply actions
Creasy - I say that about not taking a OT at #11
because there is not one valued that high. Not because I dont think we need one with our first pick.
It’s a real down year for top talent OLine. Now late first and second round talents, they are available in this draft. My point is that we shouldnt reach for a Tackle just because its a big need when the value is not there.
DE, LB, CB will probably be the order they look at their 1st round pick..
There aren’t any OL or safeties worthy of a top ten from what it looks like. Some really good DE’s in this draft from what it appears.
Okay.
Let me phrase it this way. If the top CBs are gone (two of them), and Fairley and Bowers are gone, what do you do? Do you take Dareus or do you take the best tackle prospect in Derek Sherrod? Personally, I would much rather have Sherrod since I think his ceiling is much much higher than Dareus’s. Maybe people disagree, but I think Sherrod is a very good prospect.
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
i think this draft it's pretty deep
i wouldn’t mind that too, we could end with a good DE, OL and S on the first two rounds
Dallas Has So Many Needs . . .
. . . this draft will be like being at Luby’s after not eating for a week. Dallas has too many just a guy players like Gronkowski and the safeties – then there is the total lack of depth at oline . . . and the age of Newman and the demise of Jenkins and the lack of depth at corner; what about some strength and depth on the dline to figure out a way to stop the physical running teams?
The key to this year’s overhaul will be a massive effort at free agency; I suspect we will end up trading down to save money and add picks at round two and three.
i say jerry should stick to the same strategy
as last year. identify a freak and move and get em. i think dez bryant is a freak, and they saw sean lee as a first round talent that was falling. even though the cowboys have many holes to fill, i would rather get a freak at one position than multiple picks with questionable futures.
who are the freaks that you think are in this draft. i see Cam Newton.
TCBinNYC
Love the format and I’m so glad you’re initiating this weekly post! Awesome.
I, for one, am all about the NFL, but not so much on the collegiate level. I don’t really know that I’ll be able to add a lot of content to your blog each week, but I’ll be reading every word in order to gain knowledge and understanding of the potential draft picks and their ability to help the Cowboys next year.
If you decide to “make a pick” weekly based on our draft order. Give a quick bio on that player and why you think he would be the best player for Dallas with that 1st round pick. (Just a thought)
vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
Stefen Wisniewski
trade down a couple of times, add a second rounder and a third rounder . . . then draft Stefen Wisniewski a Penn State center with good blood lines. He should go about spot 20 so Dallas could fall back two or three times and add at least two or three picks.
The meat of the draft is in round two and three; ask the Patriots how they get rich in these rounds.
To plug the holes across the roster, Dallas will need to dig deep into free agency; maybe find a right tackle to fix Colombo problem; find a saftey and a run stopping lineman and maybe a guard to try and push Bigg off the roster. The draft can be used to select the BPA to find corners and more offensive linemen and ILBs and a pass blocking run blocking pass catching fullback with some speed
that is exactly what I'm thinking
the OL is our biggest problem. We can not run the ball, and we can’t even let our QB make 5 step drops and get the ball down the field to our talented WR’s. We have to dink and dunk because our OL sucks. Grab this Wisniewki kid, or even Pouncey from Florida, who can come in day 1 and start, and pick up extra picks, which we need (we have no 3rd rounder). Sign a mid-level FA O-lineman and we are good.
The only scenario that makes me back off this strategy is if some elite looking Demarcus Ware like pass rusher is sitting there. If we had someone else to put some heat on the QB, it would solve a lot of our defensive problems. Pass rush covers up average to below average corners. We could get both elite CB’s from this draft, and if the Vick’s and Mannings of the world are sitting back there with all day to throw, they are going to get toasted.
+1
on the Wisnieki kid.. Plus a LT prospect wud b great for us..
So many players and so many Gm’s willing yo giv up the picks for them. ex.. SD
But if i was Dallas as mention earlier take the top 20 talent thats hoe NE rebuilt there whole roster… top 10 talent is just what they is top 10 talent… I see alot of other picks beside the top 10 that r getting things done..
If anything JJ stay away from the shiny toys.. Trust your scouts and draft Football player who work hard and want to win!!!!!!!
If you have a chance to get an elite prospect ...
I’m usually a trade back guy. I love how New England drafts by stockpiling 2nd and 3rd rounders. But if you are in position to take an elite prospect you should do so. If we plan on being a good team for a long time, it might be a while before we can grab a guy with Top 5 ability (and as I said before there look to be about 8 guys like that this year.)
If we fall just outside the elite prospects, I think we move back some. But if we have a chance to take a guy that is elite, I think we do it. I would be more in favor of trading up 2-3 spots to get a guy like Patrick Peterson who could be a Pro Bowl CB for the next 8 years.
Just my two cents.
If it is my money....
I am taking Prince….mostly because he is considered just as good as Petersen and would be a littler easier to move up to get.
Knowledge and Skill overcome Superstition and Luck- Dawn Patrol Motto-Spartan College of Aeronautics and Technology
by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Dec 17, 2010 8:40 AM CST up reply actions
Actually, I'm rooting for Prince as well
I think he’s the most realistic pick that could impact us the most. I like Peterson a little better for his upside, but I think Peterson goes top 3. Our secondary is one of the worst in the league. A pick of Prince would go a long way to recover in that area. I would like to have a veteran FA at Safety as well. Roman Harper would be my first choice.
Steve Schilling - G - Michigan
I know he is not a 1st round prospect but I think he is someone we should look at in the 3rd or 4th round.
all our special team draft picks fr 2 yrs ago are gone
we might need to shore up special teams in this draft.
Why do I feel nauseated all of a sudden?
"You have to have the fighting spirit. You have to force moves and take chances" (Bobby Fischer)
Cisky vomited and you can still smell it?
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
It will be impossible to get a pick in the top 10
with 6 wins. So if one of Peterson, Amukamara, Fairley, or Bowers fall to us then we should take the BAP. If not I say try and trade back a few spots and pick up a second or third and take Sherrod. In the second round look for Deunta Williams, Rahim Moore, or take an interior lineman like Pouncey or Wisniewski if they some how drop.
With the extra pick we can then get target Cannon or McDaniel. Then with our third look for a DL or an ILB (Casey Matthews). I’d be happy with something like this.
Good strategy
I would totally agree with this. You wait and hope someone elite drops to you, and then trade back if not. I dont think Rahim Moore will still be there in the second, but taking him around the 20th pick would be an option. And if we’re trading back from 12 to 20, we might even be able to pick up an extra first round pick for next year. I hate not getting immediate help, but the truth is we need so many things we’re probably on more than a one year plan anyway.
Any Time You Add A One
. . . it is worth the gamble; especially if you find a team that might be bad.
Trade Down to get an extra 2nd rounder
This draft is stacked with O-linemen and safeties in the 2nd round. Trade down, get an extra 2nd so we can fill more positions with great talent.
oooh oh-oh-oh oh oh. ooooh oh-oh-oh ohoOOOooh. oooh oh-oh-oh oh. oh.
- Buckeye Bounce
Ohio defeats Michigan 7 times in a row.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Dec 17, 2010 3:43 PM CST reply actions
bro good read
but how in the hell do you not have Cameron Jordan up there in your list of guys at their position?
by Archie Barberio on Dec 18, 2010 6:27 PM CST reply actions
Scouts, Inc has Cameron Jordan as the 31st best prospect
Hardly elite. Maybe he rises based on Combine and whatever else he participates in, but right now he’s not considered a Top 5 type guy.
Jordan will perform well at Indy
He’s a freak. But then, so was Jarron Gilbert.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Was that a dream or a nightmare ;)
"You have to have the fighting spirit. You have to force moves and take chances" (Bobby Fischer)
I am not a Draftnik, but ponder this:
I see a lot of you talking about “value” and saying there aren’t any OLmen worth the value with our first pick. What if they get the new CBA done and it includes a rookie wage scale? Aren’t the old ideas of value thrown right out the window?
In this scenario, is there an OLman ya’ll would take with the 11th pick? I still think we need to take the BPA, but limited ONLY to the OL, ILB, S, and DE positions in the first round.
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
Definition of Value
Seems like maybe you are referring to value as it relates to a rookie contract. Although that’s something to be considered, I’m referring to value as it relates to scouts opinions as to where a player should be drafted.
For instance, when I say there is not an Offensive Lineman worth the #8 pick, I’m referring to their draft grade. I’m a strong believer that if you really want an OT with your first pick and there is not one graded as high as you pick, you have to trade back. It’s leaving value on the table if you dont trade back.
As an example, picking Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss St) at 11th overall might not be a great pick. However picking Derek Sherrod 16th overall and picking up an additional 2nd or 3rd round pick because you’ve traded back might be a fantastic pick. You’ve maximized your value.
Depends on whos player rankings you want to believe.
Scout Inc has Antony Castonzo as their #10 player overall: http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft
Todd McShay has had Nate Solder going to the Cardinals as high as #9(note that it was early Nov so he has the Cowboys picking #3): http://thelandryhat.com/2010/11/10/espns-todd-mcshay-reveals-2011-first-round-mock/
Chad Reuter has Derek Sherrod going to the Cards at # 7: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock
All this is meaningless. Why? All of this will change a dozen times between now and the draft. It’ll change after the different bowl games. It’ll change again after the Senior Bowl. It’ll probably change again after the Texas vs the Nation game. It’ll definitely change again after the Combine.
All that really matters is where the Cowboys have them ranked on draft day. And as we all know from last year’s draft, they don’t tend to rank OL very high. So, they’ll likely miss out on the fan favorites (Peterson, Amukamara, Dareus, Fairley) because they’ll go higher than where we’ll pick. After that, they’ll either find some guy that they have ranked higher than everyone else and consider it a “steal” or trade down.
Rabid and luvin' it
by lonewolfz28 on Dec 20, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
I wonder how much of the low rankings of OLinemen in the draft last year was based on team bias, meaning, we thought we didn’t have big needs at OLine so other positional needs (wrongly) pushed the oline prospects down on our team board.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Makes as much sense as any of the other ideas I've heard.
I don’t know what their reasoning is. All I know is the last time I tried looking inside Jerry’s mind it was dark and cold and just a bit scary. I try not to do that anymore. LOL
Rabid and luvin' it
by lonewolfz28 on Dec 22, 2010 12:34 AM CST up reply actions
HAHA
Last time I did that, things were a bit more lively. Like a big carnival where every barker, every acrobat, every salesman, every stand worker, every freak in the freak show, even everyone in the audience looked like Jerry. Now THAT was frightening.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Don't forget about Cameron Jordan from Cal...
He is 1a to Fairley’s 1. I read he has four or five different moves already for a DE in the 3-4. Intriguing for sure!
Rahim Moore baby!!
That’s the ticket!!!
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Oh, I forgot about him and once stated there was no 1st round safety…my bad. Bling, where do you think he goe sin the draft? I know it’s early for that stuff and combine will change things, but I find it funny that in mock drafts I have seen him go as high as 15 and as low as early 2nd round.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Not to mention...
he hasn’t even declared for the draft yet.
His weak showing against USC in the last game of the season leaves me wondering if he wouldn’t be better off returning to college. He definitely didn’t look impressive enough against a struggling USC team for me to want to draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. I want a dominant Safety that can step into the line up right away in those rounds. JMO, but I don’t think Rahim Moore is at that level yet.
Also, he needs to learn how to tackle properly or he’s going to have a short career. He hurt himself once running head down into another player on one play and got stiff armed to the ground like a little kid on another play. Heck, we’ve got Allen Ball that can do that.
Rabid and luvin' it
by lonewolfz28 on Dec 22, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
HAHA
My best case scenario is that we get a veteran safety in FA. That way we can have someone with experience calling out the coverage assignments and making adjustments. I think we have enough young talent to check out in the other safety position (Church, McCray, AOA)
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
I think he's the best player on a really bad team
I expect he will go between 15-22, but he has to show well in Indy (namely running in the high 4.4’s, low 4.5’s and showing good hip turn in drills)
I like Akeem Ayers too and Ayers should go around the same time.
I think Moore is a better player than Earl Thomas, Nate Allen, Patrick Chung and Louis Delmas at the same stage in their careers.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Wow
I may have to change my opinion of our draft options if that is the case. I REALLY wanted to get Thomas or Allen last year and Chung or Delmas the year before. 3 of the 4 are making big contributions (or were before injury) to their teams this year.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Christmas must be early for you this year
Raf has an extensive piece on Moore, and NBC DFW also has a review out on him.
by One.Cool.Customer on Dec 22, 2010 12:21 PM CST up reply actions
Amazing how that happens, ain't it?
:-)
I think the guy has a knack for playing the ball in the air and he is a really smart, heady player. If Dallas isn’t going to draft a CB and we’re stuck with another year of Jenkins-Scandrick-Newman playing for that doofus Campo, this guy could come in and play immediately. He’s a player you could build around and, at the very least, he’ll get people lined up right.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Great links
I need to check out Raf’s posts more often. Inside LBs…something that should be of interest for us and I need to find out more about the middle round guys.
These are great because they provide really good insight on guys that aren’t well known. For example, time for me to do some homework…
I still like Jaiquawn Jarrett from Temple there. You can start pushing this guy. He’s not a burner, he runs about 4.55, but he’s a good kid, his instincts have improved a lot. He’s improved his tackling too. What I really like his his balance and his fluidity when he’s asked to turn and run. It allows him to play a lot faster than he runs.
Some later-round guys are Brian Lainhart from Kent State, 6’1’’, 207 lbs. He’s fallen down some draft boards a bit this year because he’s been dinged up, but he’s of the attitude of, screw it, I’m playing through the injuries. He’s had a bum shoulder, a bum ankle, but he’s a physical kid, a ball hawk, he can turn and run. I like him a lot as well.
Especially since (like Alper said in NBC DFW) …
Since Roy Williams in 2002, the Cowboys have never used anything higher than a fourth round pick on a safety. We don’t believe they are going to change course this season.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
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