Not a lot went right for the Cowboys last week as it relates to their draft position. However, they only dropped to the eighth position. They should destroy Arizona on Christmas night, so I’m still expecting to draft around the 11th or 12th position.
Where We’ll Draft – If the season ended today, Dallas would draft 8th, according to WalterFootball.com. This would still be ok, but I really hope we don’t drop any further. Here are the records of the teams vying for a top 10 pick:
Carolina: 2 - 12 Remaining schedule – @ Pitt, @ Atl Predicted Record: 2-14
Denver: 3 – 11 Remaining schedule – vs Hou, vs SD Predicted Record: 3-13
Cincinnati: 3 – 11 Remaining schedule – vs SD, @ Balt Predicted Record: 3-13
Arizona: 4 – 10 Remaining schedule – vs Dall, @ SF Predicted Record: 4-12
Detroit: 4 – 10 Remaining schedule – @ Mia, vs Minn Predicted Record: 4-12
Buffalo: 4 – 10 Remaining schedule – vs NE, @ NYJ Predicted Record: 4-12
San Francisco: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ StL, vs Ariz Predicted Record: 6-10
Dallas: 5 - 9 Remaining schedule – @ Ariz, @ Phil Predicted Record: 6-10
Washington 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Jax, vs NYG Predicted Record: 5-11
Houston: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Den, vs Jax Predicted Record: 6-10
Minnesota: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Phil, @ Det Predicted Record: 6-10
Cleveland: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – vs Balt, vs Pitt Predicted Record: 5-11
Seattle: 6 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ TB, vs StL Predicted Record: 6-10
Tennessee: 6 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ KC, @ Indy Predicted Record: 6-10
St Louis: 6 – 8 Remaining schedule – vs SF, @ Sea Predicted Record: 8-8
Oakland: 7 – 7 (to NE) Remaining schedule – vs Indy, @ KC Predicted Record: 7-9
Miami: 7 – 7 Remaining schedule – vs Det, @ NE Predicted Record: 8-8
Games this week that could assist in Dallas’s draft position:
Hou @ Den – Need Houston win
Det @ Mia – Need Detroit win (but a Miami win ensures they finish ahead of Dallas)
NE @ Buff – Need Buffalo win
Dall @ Ariz – (Always hate to say this out loud) Need a Dallas loss.
SF @ StL – Need a SF win
Tenn @ KC – Need a Tenn win
Wash @ Jax – Need a Wash win
Minn @ Phil – Need a Minny win
Balt @ Cle – Need a Cle win
Sea @ TB – Need a Sea win
Indy @ Oak – Need an Oak win
Let's hope at least 4 of these happen.
As I’ve mentioned, I’m predicting we draft around 11th. Not bad, but probably out of range for one of the elite prospects. There seem to be 6 - 8 prospects with “Top 5” talent in an average year. So, it's top heavy.
Here’s my analysis on the elite prospects:
QB (3) – Andrew Luck, Stanford; Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Cam Newton, Auburn. Some might disagree, but Jake Locker doesn’t seem elite to me. For those that hate on Newton, swap out Locker.
HB – None.
WR (2) – AJ Green, Georgia; Julio Jones, Alabama
OL – None.
DL (3) – Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson; Nick Fairley, Auburn; Marcell Dareus, Alabama;
LB (1) – Robert Quinn (DE/OLB), North Carolina;
DB (2) – Patrick Peterson, LSU; Prince Amukamara, Nebraska;
Just outside: WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State; DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa; OLB Akeen Ayers, UCLA; RB Mark Ingram, Alabama; DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue; DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State, OLB Von Miller, Tx A&M; CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida; and maybe DE Cameron Jordan, Cal.
Here are some of the “expert” drafts I found posted recently:
Source Date Updated Draft Pos Player
WalterFootball 12/23 1.8 CB Prince Amukamara, Neb
WalterFootball 12/23 2.39 FS Rahim Moore, UCLA
WalterFootball 12/23 2.76 DT/DE Christian Ballard, Iowa
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 1.7 CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 2.38 DE Greg Romeus, Pitt
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 3.71 G Justin Boren, Ohio St
New NFL Draft.com 12/20 4.103 SS Jeron Johnson, Boise St
New NFL Draft.com 12/20 5.131 ILB Kelvin Sheppard, LSU
DraftAce.com 12/16 1.7 DE Cameron Jordan, California
Sports Fantasy Guide 12/15 1.7 DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Draft King 12/12 1.8 CB Prince Amukamara, Nebr
Footballs Future 12/19 1.7 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
These are interesting, if nothing else. But let’s take a look at who was picked (or in some cases, who was available) with the 11th pick, assuming that’s a more realistic pick for the Cowboys:
Source Date Updated Draft Pos Player
WalterFootball 12/23 1.15 DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 1.13 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
DraftAce.com 12/16 1.14 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
Sports Fantasy Guide 12/15 1.14 DE Allen Bailey, Miami
Draft King 12/12 1.13 OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
Footballs Future 12/19 1.12 DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
The mock draft I pay most attention to is from WalterFootball. Their projections and write-ups are excellent. I really loved their first two picks for Dallas in CB Prince Amukamara and FS Rahim Moore. Yes, I know that wouldn’t address the Offensive Line, but I think it would do a long way in shoring up the Defense. When you look at Dallas’s rankings, it’s the Defense that’s been killing them.
If Amukamara is there, I wouldn’t even consider trading back. I would already have the card filled out a few slots before we drafted. However, if he is gone, I am warming up to the idea of moving back a little and picking up a pick or two. There are several mid-first round type O Linemen. And if we could get either FS Rahim Moore or FS Deunta Williams in the second round, I think it might be worth it. Here’s one possible scenario:
Dallas trades their 11th pick and 5th round pick to a team wanting to move up for a QB or WR for a mid-1st rounder and 2nd rounder. Then in the first two rounds we would have roughly:
1.17 OT Derek Sherrod, Miss St
2.41 FS Rahim Moore, UCLA
2.48 CB Curtis Brown, Texas (or C Kris O’Dowd, USC)
That doesn’t look so bad either. Ok, your turn. Would love to hear some interesting theories from you guys. Go …