Your Weekly Cowboys Draft Update - 12/23 edition
by TCBinNYC on Dec 23, 2010 4:43 PM CST
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PrintNot a lot went right for the Cowboys last week as it relates to their draft position. However, they only dropped to the eighth position. They should destroy Arizona on Christmas night, so I’m still expecting to draft around the 11th or 12th position.
Where We’ll Draft – If the season ended today, Dallas would draft 8th, according to WalterFootball.com. This would still be ok, but I really hope we don’t drop any further. Here are the records of the teams vying for a top 10 pick:
Carolina: 2 - 12 Remaining schedule – @ Pitt, @ Atl Predicted Record: 2-14
Denver: 3 – 11 Remaining schedule – vs Hou, vs SD Predicted Record: 3-13
Cincinnati: 3 – 11 Remaining schedule – vs SD, @ Balt Predicted Record: 3-13
Arizona: 4 – 10 Remaining schedule – vs Dall, @ SF Predicted Record: 4-12
Detroit: 4 – 10 Remaining schedule – @ Mia, vs Minn Predicted Record: 4-12
Buffalo: 4 – 10 Remaining schedule – vs NE, @ NYJ Predicted Record: 4-12
San Francisco: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ StL, vs Ariz Predicted Record: 6-10
Dallas: 5 - 9 Remaining schedule – @ Ariz, @ Phil Predicted Record: 6-10
Washington 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Jax, vs NYG Predicted Record: 5-11
Houston: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Den, vs Jax Predicted Record: 6-10
Minnesota: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – @ Phil, @ Det Predicted Record: 6-10
Cleveland: 5 – 9 Remaining schedule – vs Balt, vs Pitt Predicted Record: 5-11
Seattle: 6 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ TB, vs StL Predicted Record: 6-10
Tennessee: 6 – 8 Remaining schedule – @ KC, @ Indy Predicted Record: 6-10
St Louis: 6 – 8 Remaining schedule – vs SF, @ Sea Predicted Record: 8-8
Oakland: 7 – 7 (to NE) Remaining schedule – vs Indy, @ KC Predicted Record: 7-9
Miami: 7 – 7 Remaining schedule – vs Det, @ NE Predicted Record: 8-8
Games this week that could assist in Dallas’s draft position:
Hou @ Den – Need Houston win
Det @ Mia – Need Detroit win (but a Miami win ensures they finish ahead of Dallas)
NE @ Buff – Need Buffalo win
Dall @ Ariz – (Always hate to say this out loud) Need a Dallas loss.
SF @ StL – Need a SF win
Tenn @ KC – Need a Tenn win
Wash @ Jax – Need a Wash win
Minn @ Phil – Need a Minny win
Balt @ Cle – Need a Cle win
Sea @ TB – Need a Sea win
Indy @ Oak – Need an Oak win
Let's hope at least 4 of these happen.
As I’ve mentioned, I’m predicting we draft around 11th. Not bad, but probably out of range for one of the elite prospects. There seem to be 6 - 8 prospects with “Top 5” talent in an average year. So, it's top heavy.
Here’s my analysis on the elite prospects:
QB (3) – Andrew Luck, Stanford; Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Cam Newton, Auburn. Some might disagree, but Jake Locker doesn’t seem elite to me. For those that hate on Newton, swap out Locker.
HB – None.
WR (2) – AJ Green, Georgia; Julio Jones, Alabama
OL – None.
DL (3) – Da’Quan Bowers, Clemson; Nick Fairley, Auburn; Marcell Dareus, Alabama;
LB (1) – Robert Quinn (DE/OLB), North Carolina;
DB (2) – Patrick Peterson, LSU; Prince Amukamara, Nebraska;
Just outside: WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State; DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa; OLB Akeen Ayers, UCLA; RB Mark Ingram, Alabama; DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue; DT Stephen Paea, Oregon State, OLB Von Miller, Tx A&M; CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida; and maybe DE Cameron Jordan, Cal.
Here are some of the “expert” drafts I found posted recently:
Source Date Updated Draft Pos Player
WalterFootball 12/23 1.8 CB Prince Amukamara, Neb
WalterFootball 12/23 2.39 FS Rahim Moore, UCLA
WalterFootball 12/23 2.76 DT/DE Christian Ballard, Iowa
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 1.7 CB Janoris Jenkins, Florida
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 2.38 DE Greg Romeus, Pitt
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 3.71 G Justin Boren, Ohio St
New NFL Draft.com 12/20 4.103 SS Jeron Johnson, Boise St
New NFL Draft.com 12/20 5.131 ILB Kelvin Sheppard, LSU
DraftAce.com 12/16 1.7 DE Cameron Jordan, California
Sports Fantasy Guide 12/15 1.7 DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
Draft King 12/12 1.8 CB Prince Amukamara, Nebr
Footballs Future 12/19 1.7 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
These are interesting, if nothing else. But let’s take a look at who was picked (or in some cases, who was available) with the 11th pick, assuming that’s a more realistic pick for the Cowboys:
Source Date Updated Draft Pos Player
WalterFootball 12/23 1.15 DE/OLB Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
NewNFLDraft.com 12/20 1.13 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
DraftAce.com 12/16 1.14 DE Marcell Dareus, Alabama
Sports Fantasy Guide 12/15 1.14 DE Allen Bailey, Miami
Draft King 12/12 1.13 OLB Akeem Ayers, UCLA
Footballs Future 12/19 1.12 DE Adrian Clayborn, Iowa
The mock draft I pay most attention to is from WalterFootball. Their projections and write-ups are excellent. I really loved their first two picks for Dallas in CB Prince Amukamara and FS Rahim Moore. Yes, I know that wouldn’t address the Offensive Line, but I think it would do a long way in shoring up the Defense. When you look at Dallas’s rankings, it’s the Defense that’s been killing them.
If Amukamara is there, I wouldn’t even consider trading back. I would already have the card filled out a few slots before we drafted. However, if he is gone, I am warming up to the idea of moving back a little and picking up a pick or two. There are several mid-first round type O Linemen. And if we could get either FS Rahim Moore or FS Deunta Williams in the second round, I think it might be worth it. Here’s one possible scenario:
Dallas trades their 11th pick and 5th round pick to a team wanting to move up for a QB or WR for a mid-1st rounder and 2nd rounder. Then in the first two rounds we would have roughly:
1.17 OT Derek Sherrod, Miss St
2.41 FS Rahim Moore, UCLA
2.48 CB Curtis Brown, Texas (or C Kris O’Dowd, USC)
That doesn’t look so bad either. Ok, your turn. Would love to hear some interesting theories from you guys. Go …
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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I love Raheem Moore
I wouldnt even mind taking him 11th overall, I think he is that good
but DL OL FS is the order I see playing out for us
by Archie Barberio on Dec 23, 2010 4:53 PM CST reply actions
Moore looks great to me, and Deunta Williams a notch
or two below. BUT….
something in the back of my mind tells me I want a veteran manning centerfield next season.
UFA dollars: Guard, Free Safety
Draft: 34DE, RT, ILB, late DT, late CB
Now don’t go asking me who this UFA FS will be, but I’m thinking we don’t want a rook there if we have designs on going to the playoffs.
Already Looking Forward to This Next Week!
Lot of good work putting this together. Merry Christmas!
Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.
Thanks for all the hard work and time required to pull this together.
"You have to have the fighting spirit. You have to force moves and take chances" (Bobby Fischer)
Thanks!
I’ve enjoyed putting it together. It’s really all we have as Cowboy fans on these types of seasons. I really look forward to the WalterFootball.com updated draft every week. I wait on that one before I post this. See you this time next week.
Nice stuff
What bothers me about Amukamara is my buddy is from Lincoln and a huge Huskers fan. Says he doesn’t get what all the hype is about Prince. He was shocked when I told him he will likely go top five in the draft. Also says SS Lavonte David is a stud (3rd round projection as of now). He could be someone to look at.
Likely because no one throws his way
I’ve watched him on every play the last 3 Nebraska games and I can count on two hands the number of balls thrown at him. I saw him compared to Nnamdi Asomugha in the sense that he’s never tested (sounds like he has a disease.)
I’ve watched Peterson for as long as well. But with Peterson he returns kicks (looks like Deion doing so) so you get a better chance to see him.
The difference in these two kids is that Prince has been considered a top prospect for a while. Peterson has come on the scene more recently. Prince is considered the safer pick and has a lower bust rate. But Peterson’s ceiling is higher and he really could be the next great CB. He’s only rated slightly higher as a prospect, but they are different. And like I said, Peterson is a return guy as well. They are rated as like 9.8 (Peterson) and 9.6 (Prince) as prospects. The next guy (probably Janoris Jenkins) is like an 8, so there is a huge gap. But some teams might prefer Prince and it wouldnt be surprising.
Runors have it
that a lot of the scouts around the NFL are beginning to project Prince as a safety rather than a cb.
I think such a transition is more applicable to Peterson.
He’s got the size for it and his hips, which are relatively stiff due to his size and strength, mean that he is probably a little better suited at safety as long as he can mentally and instinctively make that transition.
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
Your buddy from Lincoln must not watch the games to closely. Prince with the exception of Blackman has shut down the WR’s he’s covered. Also David is a LB not a safety and he’s also a junior and unlikely to come out.
He doesn't possess the knowledge and comprehension you'll find in people
that regularly post on this board, so that could be. I think it’s difficult for anyone to evaluate corners without coaches tape anyway. You simply can’t see most of the action, especially when they aren’t tested. In his defense, he did not sell me on David as being a safety. I look to drafttek for my basic info, and they have him listed that way. I only saw one half of one Nebraska game this season, and while I did notice David on the field, I did not notice what position he was playing. That makes me interested in what kind of scheme they are running over there. Jared Crick is being billed as a 34DE, and one of the LBs is apparently projected as a safety in the NFL. I look forward to the bowl game.
As far as Prince goes, I’m sure he’ll be a top-10 selection and have a fine NFL career, I just don’t think he is right for Dallas as the roster stands now.
We’d be better served to live with the corners we have, but find someone who can create pressure from the five-technique, which will make guys like Spencer and the cover guys much better players.
Example: While Terrence Newman has had a solid career, Kevin Williams would have been a more solid selection, both then and now.
Buliding inside out is the idea. A guy like Cam Jordan can help lengthen Newman’s career much more so than a CB like Prince can cover up the dissappearance of a stiff like Igor.
Grading CB’s is very tough, but when teams do throw his way it isn’t completed very often.
Crink who is also a junior and not coming out is a DT at Nebraska but more likely to be a 3-4 DE in the NFL, because at 6-6 285 he’s a bit small for the inside.
David is a mlb who is very fast, but at 6-1 215 he’s also undersized. Nebraska built a speed defense to stop the spread.
my bad he redshirted his first year, so he has the years eligble to come out, most of the stuff I read has him coming out and a mid round pick
by Archie Barberio on Dec 24, 2010 5:35 PM CST up reply actions
Don’t know where your reading but I live in Nebraska and most local media and himself have said that he’s coming back. If he had lived up to the preseason hype then he might be but not now. Before the season mocks had him as a late 1st now he’s a 3rd.
The local media here has said that he’s coming back. He said awhile back that he was about 90% sure he was coming back, I believe that was just before the Colorado game.
might be smart
for him he could up his stock but idk how he really could
his numbers are impressive this year
he is going to be a steal for a team the 2nd day
by Archie Barberio on Dec 24, 2010 11:19 PM CST up reply actions
I also think Cam Jordan will be rising up the boards
and go in the 9-12 range, exactly where we will pick. All of the Cal stuff I look at suggests he is a better prospect than Alualu.
That D-Line needs some penetrators on it, and I don’t see where we are going to get that if not in the draft.
It’s easier to cover up a shaky secondary with a solid DL than the opposite.
If Prince ends up as the second coming of Deion the defense will still be brutal with the way things are going up front.
yup
I wrote about Cam Jordan, he is a beast
by Archie Barberio on Dec 23, 2010 7:06 PM CST up reply actions
Isn't our draft current position 10th?
I thought we lose the strength of schedule tiebreaker to Washington and Houston?
Houston's opp. win% is .536
Ours and Washington’s is .518. we are tied with Wash with a 2-3 div. record, but they are 4-7 in the conference and we are 3-7.
If those three items are tied at the end of the season, a coin flip is used.
That's Not How I Read It
The tiebreaking procedures for selection for non-playoff teams is strength of schedule, then divisional tiebreakers, if applicable. Divisional tiebreakers are broken in the following order:
- Head-to-head (both 1-1)
- Divisional records (both 2-3)
- Record against common opponents (Dallas 5-6, Washington 5-7)
Technically, we are higher in the standings than Washington, and they would pick before us.
So, assuming I’m reading it correctly, the three-way selection order would be: Houston, Washington, Dallas.
Current order is here.
1.Carolina (2-12)
2.Denver (3-11)
3.Cincinnati (3-11)
4.Arizona (4-10)
5.Detroit (4-10)
6.Buffalo (4-10)
7.San Francisco (5-9)
8.Washington (5-9)
9.Dallas (5-9)
10.Houston (5-9)
11.Cleveland (5-9)
12.Seattle (6-8)
13.Tennessee (6-8)
14.Minnesota (5-8)*
15.New England – from Oakland (7-7)
16.Miami (7-7)
17.San Diego (8-6)
18.Jacksonville (8-6)
19.Tampa Bay (8-6)
20.Green Bay (8-6)
21.St. Louis (6-8)
22.Indianapolis* (8-6)
23.Kansas City* (9-5)
24.Chicago* (9-4)*
25.New York Giants (10-4)
26.New York Jets* (10-4)
27.Baltimore* (10-4)
28.New Orleans* (10-4)
29.Philadelphia* (10-4)
30.Pittsburgh* (10-4)
31.Atlanta* (12-2)
32.New England* (12-2)
Gosh I love draft time.
So many possibilities. The one thing I will say is that I have to echo the sentiments of fivetwos. I have a Huskers roommate and he too thinks Amukamara is overrated. And yes, it could be that he is just never tested, but nonetheless it is worrisome to me.
More importantly, as we have gotten farther into this season, I think CB is falling down my list of wants from this draft. It isn’t that we couldn’t use CB help, but I think we need a lot more help at DE, OT, and S.
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
Dexter thats exactly how I feel too
I want a CB but I think DE OT S are more pressing needs
by Archie Barberio on Dec 23, 2010 8:32 PM CST reply actions
I guess that it all depends...
If the team goes back to a 3-4 of the Parcells-Belichick tree, then I guess that the team current DEs would be enough.
If the team goes with an attacking scheme (Pittsburgh-Capers)… Then they need a DE that can rush the passer as they don’t have one.
And if the team goes to a 4 man front, they need another DT that can rush the passer, you have one with Ratliff.
Sign me up for a 3-4 DE / 4 man front pass rusher (Da’Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley or Cameron Jordan).
Arnold, almost 5 years of good memories, you'll be missed.
Viva México! Go Cowboys!
Brent is going to be a nice player ...Do not forget about him
by scandrick32 on Dec 24, 2010 12:06 AM CST up reply actions
From what I've seen, he isn't a pass rusher
He MAY develop into a good 1st and 2nd down DLineman, he just doesn’t have the quickness that an interior pass rusher needs.
That’s the problem, good attacking 3-4 teams have at least 2 guys in the Line that can bring pressure, the Cowboys have one guy and hope.
You think that Brent is going to develop into something? The same was said about Bowen and Hatcher… That’s the problem of hope, from time to time, these guys don’t develop.
Arnold, almost 5 years of good memories, you'll be missed.
Viva México! Go Cowboys!
big difference
Brent was a big time prospect and at the time last year was rated a 3rd grade
we got him cheap
Brent imo can play end or tackle, but I would like ot beef him up another 10 pounds and play NT because of his strength, he is the strongest player on the team im not BS’n Ratliff said the same thing Brent has serious upside now Bowen and Hatcher I think are good players, I think Bowen has better upside but they just dont get the playing time to merit anything, they did this year and your right Bowen is not the guy we saw last year with all those pressures
thats why I want a DE in the 1st unless a CB is there
a guy who I think we might draft is Adrian Claybourne, idk ive been thinking about it and he is going to be available and this guy is disruptive and all the scouts had this guy as a top ten pick now he is fallen off to the 10-15 range personally I think it might come down to Claybourn vs Cam Jordan, who can play the 5 technique better for you
Im a Cam Jordan guy but if I heard Claybourns name called on draft day I would be happy because Iowa always puts out good football players
by Archie Barberio on Dec 24, 2010 5:40 PM CST up reply actions
Hatcher was drafted in the 3rd Round
And they did it because they received good indications that the Patriots would take him, so they leap frogged the Patriots to take him.
Later in the day the Patriots front office congratulated Jerry for getting them. I believe that was the kiss of death…
Brent was drafted in the supplemental draft in the 7th, not sure were you’re getting that he was rated in the 3rd… You’re talking about a ranking in one of the big draft sites or what?
Arnold, almost 5 years of good memories, you'll be missed.
Viva México! Go Cowboys!
Brent had a 3rd round grade
meaning if he was in the NFL Draft he had a 3-4th rd grade then he became then had issues and declared for the supplemental draft
then most people after that draft said the Cowboys got a 3rd rd player for a 7th rd pick but said he had character issues so it was just a scenario with no loss because it was only a 7th rd pick
Hatcher would be good on the team like the Patriots because they use a heayy rotation, something we should continue to do
for the record I would like to keep Hatcher and Bowen, I would rather have 2 players than 1 like Spears, because Spears is good but imo Brent Hatcher Bowen rotation is better than paying 1 guy who is a solid player but not great, Spears isnt great, he is just solid and there is nothing wrong with that
if he stays for a modest deal then thats great but he is going to want to get paid and a team like the Dolphins or Chiefs will pay him more than what we can offer imo
because if Igor Olshansky can get 5 million dollars in 2011, what can Marcus Spears get? more than that, he is 2 times the player Igor is
by Archie Barberio on Dec 24, 2010 8:51 PM CST up reply actions
nice post, i'm as concerned as you regarding this
i always look the schedule and root for the teams who are with similar records, there will be a tie among a few hopefully strenght of schedule will help us
Hmm I'm not sure Curtis Brown is who I would go for unless we had absolutely no faith in both
Scandrick and Newman and couldn’t pick up a CB in FA. Don’t get me wrong he could turn out to be a great player, I just don’t think we have the luxury of taking a chance on him
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
ILB
couple of ILB we should take a look at is the kid from Maryland and this kid from Illinois who is being compared to Dansby
we need another ILB, Lee is the starter but who do we pair him with? we need his partner in crime boys
RB we need to get a bigger style RB in the draft since Barber is done in Dallas and has no legs left
Carter from Cuse Allen from GT Scott from Maryland bunch of mid level RB’s
even a guy like Armando Allen from Notre Dame could go UDFA
again Lonyae Miller but he needs to change that number, it makes him look slow lol
by Archie Barberio on Dec 24, 2010 5:44 PM CST reply actions
Please forget drafting a RB, we have Felix, Choice and Miller assuming Barber is gone.
We have much bigger needs for our draft picks. RB’s are easy to pick up in UDFA and put on the PS.
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