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Dallas Cowboys and Hidden Yardage: Another Winning Proposition

I was recently indulging my man-love for David Buehler and googling kicker-related stuff, when I stumbled across the following quote from Jim Grobe, the current Wake Forest coach, from his time with the Ohio Bobcats:

"Your punter is one of the most important parts of your football team. It really adds right into your total offense. If you have a punter who's outpunting the opponent by five to ten yards every time you exchange punts, you just add that onto your total offense. That's what you call hidden yardage."

Hidden yardage! Wasn't that one of Bill Parcells pet themes? Sure was: Dave transcribed a Parcells press conference in 2006 where Parcells said the following: "McBriar is a field position weapon, he's netting 40 yards a kick. He picks up hidden yards that can lead to points".

According to Parcells, 100 yards of "hidden yardage" or field position is worth seven points (others may use the same formula, he's just the one I associate this with). Jimmy Johnson also had his own theory on hidden yardage, and used to equate a 50 yard advantage in punt/kick return yards to five extra first downs.

But what is hidden yardage? The most common definition I found basically talks about kickoff yards, kickoff return yards, punts and punt return yards. And sure, we could make it a lot more complicated and add penalties, sacks, blocked or missed field goals, all sorts of other stuff, but let's keep it simple.

What I want to look at a little closer are two parts of the hidden yardage equation, the kicking game and the return game.

Star-divide

Power and Precision: The Kicking Game. Sometime during the course of the season almost every fan must have realized that we had something pretty special going on in our kicking game (not on field goals though, but that's another story). The Cowboys ended the regular season ranked 7th in opponent retuns after kickoffs with 20.6 yards and also ranked 7th in net punt average with 39.9 yards. Here's why:

Exhibit A: David Buehler amassed a league leading 29 touchbacks on 77 kickoffs in the regular season, and added 5 more on 9 kickoffs in the playoffs. His regular season touchback rate of 37.7% is 2nd in NFL.

Why is this number important? About 16% of all NFL kickoffs are touchbacks. According to advancednflstats.com the average starting position for all non-touchback kickoffs is the 32-yard line. The average difference between a touchback and a non-touchback is therefore 12 yards. Those 12 yards are one additional first down required for the opponent to score.

Buehler’s 29 touchbacks are one more than the Cowboys have scored in seven consecutive seasons combined (28 touchbacks, '02-'08), and are just one shy of the modern NFL record.

Since the league started using the K-ball back in 1999, the record for most TB's is held by Rhys LLoyd (CAR, 2008) with 30. Lloyd's 30 touchbacks out of 88 attempts helped boost the Carolina special teams kickoff coverage from 19th place in '07 to 3rd in the league in '08.

Exhibit B: Mat McBriar: McBriar ranked fourth in the NFL with a 39.9 Net Punting Average.

McBriar's precision is also worth noting. The Cowboys led the league in % of punts placed inside the red zone with 53% (38/72) and are ranked a joint fourth in the NFL with only 3 touchbacks on punts (that is good, because ideally you want to place the ball at the 1 yard line, not in the endzone).

Why are these numbers important? Because pinning the opposing offense far back inside their own half gives them a long field, which significantly reduces their chances of scoring.

Also, because the kicking numbers for both Buehler and McBriar include return yards, they are an effective measure of our special teams performance on punts and kickoffs - and the Cowboys shine here. Thank you, coach Joe D.

The Return Game. Unfortunately, this is where the gaudy stats end. The Cowboys average kickoff return was 22 yards, which ranks a disappointing 20th in the NFL. The average punt return was 10.9 yards, good enough for an impressive 6th in the league.

However, that 6th rank is only impressive until you take out the two Crayton punt returns for a TD. No question, they were great returns, lovely to watch and important for the team. But they mess up our averages. And if you need to know one thing about stats, it's this: never trust averages.

Statistician drowning in a pond with an average depth of 3 feet

Statistician-drowning-in-a-pond-with-an-average-depth-of-3ft_medium

via filipspagnoli.files.wordpress.com

If we take out Crayton's two returns, the average drops to a very pedestrian 7.3, which would rank 21st in the NFL, thus restoring the ranking symmetry between the kickoff returns at 20th and the punt returns at 21st. 

But, but, but ... can I just change stats like that? Sure I can. Especially if it's to illustrate a point. The point being that the Bengals, for example, rank 2nd in the league in average punt return yards with 11.9 yards, and they didn't have a single punt return TD to 'boost' the stats. So it can be done.

The Cowboys already have an excellent kicking game. What they are still missing is The Return Man - an elusive speedster with exceptional quickness, great hands and cutback ability. In short, a game changer capable of scoring or creating short field positions every time he touches the ball. The Return Man would significantly up our team's kickoff and punt return units. Sadly, I'm pretty sure that The Return Man is not on the Cowboys roster yet. Happy hunting, coach Joe D.

5 recs  |  Comment 47 comments |

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Not to change subjects too much but...

remember when everyone here wanted Gibril Wilson a couple of years ago?

Yeah….glad we didn’t.

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 11, 2010 12:56 PM CST reply actions  

With regard to punt returns

you can still have outliers that weren’t returned for a td. Bengals could have had a 40 yard return in which their punt returner was tackled by the punter. That would be an outlier.

Best thing to do would be to take the median punt return not the mean (average) for all teams then compare, or average all punt returns for all teams within two standard deviations.

2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it

by quincyyyyy on Feb 11, 2010 1:03 PM CST reply actions  

True

and a good point, but calculating the median would mean days of combing through the playbooks to calculate. I think the point I’m making, about a struggling return game, still has is valid.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 11, 2010 2:10 PM CST up reply actions  

The overall point you make is very good

But this paragraph isn’t:

If we take out Crayton’s two returns, the average drops to a very pedestrian 7.3, which would rank 21st in the NFL, thus restoring the ranking symmetry between the kickoff returns at 20th and the punt returns at 21st.

What about the other 13 teams in between? Did you take out their TDs? What about 65 yard returns that didn’t result in a TD?

I share your distaste for spending hours poring over statistical data, but simply removing our 2 returns for TDs doesn’t really tell us anything at all. Every team’s kick return averages are skewed by 2-3 big returns. Unless you take everyone’s big plays out, you are clouding the issue, not clarifying it.

"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34

Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...

by Brian Thomas on Feb 11, 2010 3:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I think OCC's point is valid...

While I understand the argument that “You’ve got to do it for everyone else”, I think we all know what we’ve got in Crayton as a returner… Since he’s not returning a high percentage of punts for TD’s, it’s fair to see them ass statistical “oddities”. Removing the “oddities” usually gives a better prediction for the future.

Much like BABIP in baseball, stats become skewed when you don’t neutralize for luck. And let’s be honest, Crayton’s two TD returns were damn lucky, based on his history.

by tkosmith on Feb 11, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

No clouds where I'm sitting
Unless you take everyone’s big plays out, you are clouding the issue, not clarifying it.

Here are the top five NFL teams as they stand with and without TD returns on punts

1. PHI 13.5 ….. 9.5
2. CIN 11.9 … 11.9
3. CLE 11.7 … 10.2
4. TB 11.6 …… 9.9
5. NE 11.4 … 11.4
6. DAL 10.9 … 7.3

Philly had 2 TD (72&85 yards), the Browns and Pats one each (67 & 77yards), Bengals and Bucs none.

I stand by my point, and I think the calculation was a valid shortcut.

But, but, but … can I just change stats like that? Sure I can. Especially if it’s to illustrate a point.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 11, 2010 3:46 PM CST up reply actions  

sorry but it is not

there are outliers that don’t go for tds. There are 40 yard returns that don’t result in tds.

Like I said before, the median return, not the average, is the best measure of punt return success.

2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it

by quincyyyyy on Feb 11, 2010 5:00 PM CST up reply actions  

And you would be right

"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34

Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...

by Brian Thomas on Feb 11, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions  

I might be inclined to agree,

however there seemed to be a light come on for Crayton when he got benched and the Cowboys signed another returner. I think the punt return game got better overall after that point.

by elharpo on Feb 11, 2010 5:46 PM CST up reply actions  

X
And if you need to know one thing about stats, it’s this: never trust averages.

Here’s another key point: if you cherrypick em, you can support whatever conclusion you see fit, erroneous or no (See Disraeli, Benjamin).

OCC: let’s take a look at every team’s avg. punt returns.
Me: OK
OCC: Except, with one team only, we’re gonna throw out a couple of outliers.
Me: OK? Why is that?
OCC: Because:

if you need to know one thing about stats, it’s this: never trust averages

Me: So…why are we ignoring the other 31 teams’ outliers?
OCC: It is a valid shortcut makes my point without the inconvenience of statistical proof.
Me: OK then.

"I don’t know how these SN blog authors get their gigs, but I’m frankly surprised SN tolerates AJM’s lack of effort." Tex34

Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...

by Brian Thomas on Feb 11, 2010 6:58 PM CST up reply actions  

While there are big plays other than tds as some pointed out

I think its quite obvious how our punt return average drops off when you take away what really were our only 2 huge plays of the season.

As el harpo said, I think our return average after week 5 may’ve been MUCH better than before.

Regardless though, 7.4 is not good. Thats gonna look bad regardless of how you manipulate stats for the other teams (this comment is pointed more at Brian Thomas.

by foyesboys on Feb 11, 2010 7:57 PM CST up reply actions  

No need to comb through all the data...

You should just use another example of a team that had a returner with 2 TDs and went to the Pro Bowl as the NFC returner and as one of the Receivers…

The information about the Eagles punt returns and it’s average would be a good illustration.

Viva México! Go Cowboys!

by Chandus on Feb 11, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I was about to write this.

Only, not as polite. Median is an outlier resistant stat.

Seeing as how that could be a lot of work…you could take out the highest and lowest x yards for each team and then compare. That might be a little easier.

What OCC (yeah you know me) did was poor stat work…usually he’s better. “Don’t use stats like a blind man uses a lamp post: for a crutch, not illumination”

If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.

by GhettoBear04 on Feb 11, 2010 4:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Buehler

I recall reading (I think not here) that his kickoffs helped force KC into longer FG attempts or no FG attempts, and that he may have been worth 6 points on that day.

by I_miss_Switzer on Feb 11, 2010 1:06 PM CST reply actions  

Hidden yardage. I love it.

I remember Parcells talking about it, how it made so much sense—100 yds of hidden yardage=1 TD. It wasn’t an absolute truth, but a good way of conceiving it.

Makes me wonder if some of the disdain for Wade’s personality and his lack of being “interesting” in his pressers has to do with the fact that Parcells’ were so instructive. Most of the time it was Football 101, whereas Wade is uncomfortable talking to the press and wants out of there as soon as humanly possible.

Wade will never go into broadcasting when he’s finished coaching, but he may have a little something going in getting talented athletes to bond together. To hear them tell it, he does.

"We'll see." --Bill Parcells

by Uncle Angus on Feb 11, 2010 1:27 PM CST reply actions  

And good post.

"We'll see." --Bill Parcells

by Uncle Angus on Feb 11, 2010 1:28 PM CST reply actions  

Quality Post

As much as the need for a return man is well discussed, is there one in the draft that is that difference maker that can be picked up at a reasonable spot ?

by oldboysfan on Feb 11, 2010 1:30 PM CST reply actions  

+1000

His speed alone could get him to the 25 every kickoff before someone touches him… maybe a lil exaggerated but not by much

by nicholas.rodriguez on Feb 11, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions  

BTW

Nice artwork, but it doesn’t work the same as cheerleaders.

by oldboysfan on Feb 11, 2010 1:33 PM CST reply actions  

and all the Eagles laughed when we drafted Buehler....

…but they weren’t laughing so much when we kicked their butts 3 times in large part to hidden yardage given to us by Buehler

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 11, 2010 1:37 PM CST reply actions  

Yeah...

I kept seeing this kind of comments over there:

“And another touchback…”

“I’m so envious…”

“We thought that the Cowboys taking KO Specialist was funny! I’m not laughing anymore…”

Viva México! Go Cowboys!

by Chandus on Feb 11, 2010 3:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Great post. We all know that special teams is important,

but you did a great job of breaking down just what that means for a team.

"Everybody wants something but nobody wants to pay the price" - Michael Irvin

by 24Hz on Feb 11, 2010 2:15 PM CST reply actions  

Unfortunately...

…we often give that “hidden yardage” right back in obvious penalties.

by freightgod on Feb 11, 2010 2:38 PM CST reply actions  

Punting statistics

I have always been blown away by how misleading punting statistics are. They ought to divide punting stats into two distinct categories: punting from your side of the field, and punting from the opponents side of the field.

From your own side: average distance of kick, hang time and net yardage
From opponents side: percentage inside 20, percentage inside 10, net yardage

Why would you include pooch kicks and short punts into a punters total average? This makes no sense at all.

by bewareofdware on Feb 11, 2010 3:09 PM CST reply actions  

good point

McBriar has absolutely boomed punts when we needed him too. Bur he has so many that have been downed inside the 20, it hurts his average.

by foyesboys on Feb 11, 2010 7:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Why not TC

Hey wouldn’t TC work as a possible return guy?

by elFURIOSOpozo on Feb 11, 2010 3:35 PM CST reply actions  

I think he can find the whole but I don't think

we blocked particularly well on KRs, most of the times I can remember the return man was getting swallowed by multiple defenders and as such having Choice who is slower than both Felix and Tree in there would be counter productive

by nicholas.rodriguez on Feb 11, 2010 4:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree

Raf pointed it out as well – the KR blocking was not very good but my guess is that this will get corrected for next season.

FREE THE OGLETREE!!!

by dunkman on Feb 11, 2010 7:33 PM CST up reply actions  

The perfect example of hidden yardage is

the NFC championship game. all the talking heads lamented how lucky the saints were because they only had 257 yards of offense while Minnesota had 475. But, the Saints had 183 yards in kickoff returns (Minnesota 33), 3 out of 5 kickoffs for touchbacks (Minnesota 1) and 0 punt return yards (Minnesota 15). The average starting field position for New Orleans was their own 34 while Minnesota started at their 28 on average.

Adding the hidden yardage to each team leaves Minnesota with 523 yards and New Orleans with 440. Granted, the saints defense didn’t really stop Minnesota at any point outside of forcing turnovers, but you can see that, over 13 possessions, the difference in starting field position accounts for 78 of the 83 yard differential.

The great unsung hero of the Saints’ postseason was their special teams unit. They did it again in the super bowl, but not in as drastic a manner.

by Justin C on Feb 12, 2010 8:48 AM CST reply actions  

What about Holley??

Correct me if I’m wrong but didnt Jesse Holley have a punt return for a TD during the preseason??? I think it was against the vikes. I think he should get an extensive look.

by Antonio S on Feb 12, 2010 8:50 AM CST reply actions  

Is he good enough though...

that he should be activated?

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 12, 2010 9:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Holley Cow!

not to take anything away from Holley, but that play was in the last quarter of the fourth pre-season game and the ball literally jumped into Holley’s hands as if it was scared of the turf. Watch the replay here.

I think if Holley was the answer as the return guy, the coaches would have noticed by now.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 12, 2010 9:15 AM CST up reply actions  

I think it's definitely both

Obviously you need the blocking but once there is a seam, a returner has to be able to have that burst and acceleration as the seam or hole will close very fast in the NFL.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 12, 2010 9:53 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree....

but does Felix not have that?

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 12, 2010 10:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Of course Felix has that

but I didn’t see a lot of seams or holes this year either like you pointed out. Gotta have both.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 12, 2010 1:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I think punt return ability

would actually be more correlated to agility and ability to change directions quickly rather than straight acceleration.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Feb 13, 2010 4:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Its actually both. You have to be able to make the first guy miss cause there is always one guy who beats the blocking.

You also have to be absolutely fearless. You have to explode though a hole. Sometimes you make it though and some times you wake up Wednesday. If you notice, very few of these guys is great more than 3 years.(Hester, Kid in KC, both 2 year shelf lifes)

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Feb 14, 2010 10:52 AM CST up reply actions  

5th Rec

Good post.

I'm a limousine-riding, jet-flying, kiss-stealing, wheeling-dealing son of a gun!!! Wooooo!!!

by Noble_Bloodlines on Feb 12, 2010 10:42 AM CST reply actions  

Felix Jones college highlight reel

Watch this mix and tell me that Felix Jones can’t return kicks:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9FNBJi5PyY

Totally sick……his burst and ability to accelerate as he is changing direction is eye-popping.

by bewareofdware on Feb 13, 2010 10:57 AM CST reply actions  

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