Was Roy E. Williams really this bad?
by ScarletO on Feb 18, 2010 6:26 PM CST
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PrintI broke down some receiving statistics compiled during the 2009 NFL regular season. Instead of using raw statistics such as receptions, yards, reception percentage, and yards per catch, I decided to analyze how each receiver contributed to their respective team’s passing offense.
The statistics I focused on were the percent of receptions among the top five reception leaders for each individual team, and the percent of the total yardage gained among the top five reception leaders per team. In other words, if the top five receivers for a team caught 240 passes for 2500 yards, a receiver that caught 60 passes for 1000 yards accounted for 25% of the receptions and 40% of the yards.
By doing this I buffered the effects of teams that preferred to run the ball more than others. In addition, it made it easier to compare how a top tight end was more valuable for one team than the other.
For instance, Jason Witten accounted for 34.1% of the completions among the top five targets for Tony Romo. Despite also leading the team in receptions, Brent Celek accounted for just 27.6% of the completions of the top five receivers for the Eagles, and Antonio Gates accounted for only 30.3% of the receptions distributed among the top five Chargers receivers.
This breakdown allowed me to compare apples to apples, so to speak. The quality of the quarterbacking, however, still impacted the results, as Cleveland and Tampa Bay receivers struggled. This ranking also identified problems with the receivers on certain teams: Baltimore comes to mind.
In order to facilitate statistical analysis, I chose the top five receiving leaders from each team to avoid a player influencing the statistics by having one or two big plays. I will be revisiting this data periodically, and probably expand it to other positions.
The top five players for the Cowboys in receptions were:
- Jason Witten, TE: 94 receptions for 1030 yards
- Miles Austin, WR: 81 receptions for 1320 yards
- Roy E. Williams, WR: 38 receptions for 596 yards
- Patrick Crayton, WR: 37 receptions for 622 yards
- Marion Barber III, RB: 26 receptions for 221 yards
Roy E. Williams was the Cowboys third leading reception leader. Roy appears to be a good second wide receiver.
According to my statistics, Roy E. Williams accounted for 15.7% of the completions and 13.8% of the yards gained by the top five receivers on the Dallas Cowboys 2009 regular season roster. At first look, those numbers seem adequate.
When compared to the rest of the league, however, here are the only wide receivers that had a lower percentage of receptions among the top five receivers for their respective teams:
Mark Clayton (Baltimore), WR: 14.8%
Sammie Stroughter (Tampa Bay), WR: 13.9%
Mike Furrey (Cleveland), WR: 13.0%
Of the 64 top two wide receivers playing on the 32 NFL teams, Roy E. Williams ranked 61st in terms of percentage of receiving production for their respective team. In the NFL, 60 of the top two wide receivers had a bigger part in their offense in terms of receiving than Roy E. Williams.
$9 million a year just does not buy what it used to…
And it gets worse. Only Mark Clayton (12.5%) had a smaller impact for his respective team in terms of the percentage of yards gained from a wide receiver.
The data suggests that Roy E. Williams needs to improve in order to remain as a legitimate second wide receiver. Comparing Williams to the third leading wide receiver on the other 31 teams in the league, Roy ranks exactly 16th, or middle of the pack among third wide receiver options.
Considering the albatross around the neck of the Cowboys offense that Roy has become, it is amazing that the Dallas offense was ranked 2nd in total offense and 6th in passing offense last season. I am sure this data will give some more ammunition to those wishing to criticize the Cowboys or Roy Williams.
According to this: they deserve it.
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Good work, Scarlet
but let me ask you this: May this also be an effect of the Romo Friendly Offense?
At one point during the season (week 10 or so), I looked at yards from line of scrimmage and found that only four teams had 6 players with > 350 yards from the line of scrimmage. The teams: NO, IND, DAL and PHI. Surely those numbers have changed by now, but I’d think the tendency has remained the same.
I wonder how the third WR on those teams looks compared to RW? Anyway, I’ll likely look into this whole RFO thing a little more closely over the coming weeks.
by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 18, 2010 7:18 PM CST reply actions
I do not think that this a product of the RFO.
Almost all of the players in the study ranked among the top 200 leaders in the NFL in receptions. If romo was really distributing the ball more evenly, one would expect a distribution more similar to that of Minnesota or New Orleans:
Marques Colston (NO), WR: 70 – 1074 (30.7% yards, 26.8% receptions)
Devery Henderson (NO), WR: 51 – 804 (22.9% yards, 19.5% receptions)
Jeremy Shockey (NO), TE: 48 – 569 (16.2% yards, 18.4% receptions)
Reggie Bush (NO), RB: 47 – 335 (9.5% yards, 18% receptions)
Robert Meachem (NO), WR: 45 – 722 (20.6% yards, 17.2% receptions)
Sidney Rice (MN), WR: 83 – 1312 (35.7% yards, 27.9% receptions)
Percy Harvin (MN), WR: 60 – 790 (21.5% yards, 20.1% receptions)
Visanthe Shiancoe (MN), TE: 56 – 566 (15.4% yards, 18.8% receptions)
Bernard Berrian (MN), WR: 55 – 618 (16.8% yards, 18.5% receptions)
Chester Taylor (MN), RB: 44 – 389 (10.6% yards, 14.8% receptions)
Notice that each team has a “number one” receiver, but that the second and third wide receivers still contribute significantly. In fact, on both of these teams, the third wide receiver contributes more to the team than Roy does with Dallas.
The data also point out that teams with good tight ends (such as Celek and Gates) that lead their respective teams in receptions still get good production from three receivers. Quarterbacks seem to influence the rankings more than the offensive style.
Dude!
I wish I’d never this data. My whole notion of the RFO just came tumbling down! I looked at the data a little closer and lo and behold, Dallas’ top three receivers accounted for 76.6% of the Cowboys targets, ranked 8th in the NFL. In receptions, the top three have 77.2%, ‘good’ enough for 4th in the NFL.
Whatever happened to spreading the ball around?
Don’t you just hate it when a firmly held belief is proven wrong? Remember how you felt when you found out Santa was actually your uncle dressed up, that Taco Bell was not in fact a Mexican phone company, or that Professional Wrestling wasn’t real? Tony Atlas, Ricky ‘The Dragon’ Steamboat, Brutus ‘The Barber’ Beefcake, Rowdy Roddy Piper, even Mr. Fuji, all faking it? I’m still traumatized to this day.
I now have to go and investigate this thoroughly.
by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 19, 2010 3:30 AM CST up reply actions
to be fair...
we suffered almost zero injuries to our top 3 wrs this year. That must impact the numbers somewhat.
And he went less to the backs this year.
I’d say the RFO had a lot more with garrett staying with the run game throughout the year (mostly) and a much better locker room chemistry, but not any tremendous change in our passing game. If anything, I’d say the passing game was no different than TO was here, with Miles taking his spot.
Blocking, it is all about Roy's blocking. That does not show up on the stat sheet.
Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
I just had to reply...
…given the size of the smile that darted across my face upon reading your post.
;)
yea, this is frickin' funny !!!
… if only it wasn’t also so SAD! I’ve been a “be patient, give him time” supporter of Roy, but these stats tell an ugly story.
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Actually, its worse than it looks
Thanks Scarlett, but I think these statistics don’t tell the whole story. If you look at the numbers for RW and PC, they seem similar (ignoring the fact that RW was a No. 1 then No 2 receiver while PC was a No. 2 then a No. 3 receiver), but I think you have to look at the opportunities each had, i.e. thrown-to statistics. I got these off the ESPN webcites, for what they’re worth:
Targeted Caught
RW 88 38
PC 67 37
So throw PC 21 more balls, he drops all but one and he loses 26 yards on the catch and what do you have? RW
Look at the stats for the other bottom of the barrel receivers you identified:
Targeted Caught
M. Clayton 74 34
Stroughter 58 31
Furry 40 23
None of these guys were as bad as RW. Clayton wasn’t too far off, but RW still comes in dead last.
The numbers are bad enough
but, I would like to know how many of the incompletions were third down drive killers. It seems that before Miles coming out party, Roy was getting alot more targets. Not receiptions. The receiving percentage is the largest factor to me.
Getting third down drops will involve quite a bit of number crunching.
Around July, when I am starving for football related items, I may get to that. It is a great thought, though.
Been there, done that
Details here. RW was targeted 27 times on third down and caught 7 of those passes for a completion/reception percentage of 27%.
by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 19, 2010 7:37 AM CST up reply actions
Wow.
I even read that when you wrote it.
Alzheimers is such a…
…forgot what I was going to say.
Sorry Cool
I think I rec that when you wrote it. Alzheimer must be contagious. Really good article ScarletO. Jerry can’t be a happy camper with those stats.
That's the really frustrating stat
The low completion % from Romo to Roy. So many wasted plays throughout the course of the season.
That has got to be corrected or else Roy can sit and watch Ogletree take his snaps.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 19, 2010 12:29 AM CST up reply actions
Hey, that was probably going to be a future post.
I think a 20-page post covering all of the angles may intimidate some people. I obviously agree with your insights.
The thrown to stat
Is really kinda garbage though. The QB can easily just throw it away and because RW is in the area, it counts as a “thrown to”. So you would expect RW to have a lower targeted/caught %, based on his body type; and where he’s lining up.
Yes, "Thrown To" and "Intended For" are different
The stats are from ESPN. You’re right that a lot of balls described as “thrown to” RW really sort of landed in a dead zone. The problem – which even my son recognized on his own during the course of the season – was that RW frequently ran the wrong route. How many times did you see Romo looking at his in exasperation? And RW sometimes doing the same thing back. But as my 12 year old observed, if this was Romo’s fault, you would see the same thing happening all the time with other receivers. But it didn’t. So yes, some of these throws targed for RW really were uncatachable even though they were intended for him, but they were uncatchable only because he wasn’t in the right place, i.e. where the ball was going to be thrown.
He could have also ran a perfect route
And just have the ball thrown over his head. If the QB throws the ball away in the pocket that “thrown to” needs to get tagged on someone
My point is that you want expect Roy to have a smaller percentage of thrownto/receptions. For a couple of reasons, he going to be target on fades; and Jerry probably tried to get the ball forced to him.
I understand your point though sometimes he looked stoned running routes, which is no excuse after the full offseason with the squad
Hmmm
sometimes he looked stoned running routes
Probably why he was wearing that helmet visor.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 19, 2010 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
Points
Shouldn’t points scored be factored into an offensive skill player’s rating. I’m not a defender of RW. In fact, I’m indifferent as to whether he should remain with the team. But not including touchdowns leaves out the most important factor when making comparisons to others.
A nicely done article, with a lot of implications as well. I wonder in the Dallas applications of #2 and #3 receivers doesn’t change the effect of being a wide receiver to tight end roles. Many of the Jason Witten receptions were given to ‘true’ wide receivers in both the New Orleans and Minnesota offenses. Take about thirty of the Witten receptions and move that to the #3 receiver, Wlliams, and things evolve quite dramaticly different in the comparisons between top three receivers also…just referencing such a perspective here.
There is no right way to do the wrong thing. GO COWBOYS!!
Not necessarily...
San Diego and Philadelphia also had tight ends lead the team in receptions, but their respective number 2 receivers still had a bigger role in their respective team’s offense. The only team that seemed to struggle getting the ball to any wide receiver was Baltimore.
Care to lay some odds on what the Ravens will target in free agency and/or the draft?
Good number crunching ScarlettO
Really underscores the potential problems the passing game could find itself in if anything happens to Austin.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
Exactly why Dallas should look to grab a guy in the draft
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Feb 19, 2010 1:42 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, it does make a good case for drafting a WR
I think Ogletree has a good chance of becoming a solid #2 in the future, maybe towards the end of the yr or in 2011. Crayton is much better in the slot, and RW remains more promise than substance at this point. So Beyond Austin, there is a significant drop off.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 19, 2010 9:30 PM CST up reply actions
i just don't see how Dallas even went in to this season
w/o starting Miles. Though I recall he had a quiet training camp
by AustonianAggie on Feb 19, 2010 11:34 AM CST reply actions
Not only that...
He had a lot of playing time in the Denver game, right before his first start against KC, and he pretty much sucked…
The Cowboys were really lucky that he started clicking at the right time…
Viva México! Go Cowboys!
Roy Williams Not Only Sucked
The price we paid in lost opportunity in the draft will haunt this team for a long time; indeed the price was so steep that it may be the difference in reaching the championship and not. One of Jerry’s biggest mistakes ever.
If you're going to count "lost opportunities"...
then you should also count opportunities gained, namely the fact that Jerry’s confidence in Roy also led to the cutting of T.O.—the biggest addition by subtraction in Cowboy history. In essence, we traded a 1st and 3rd pick, and a few million Jerry bucks, as the waste-disposal fee for T.O. Totally worth it, and anything else that Roy can give us is just gravy in my book.
by greatwhitenorth on Feb 19, 2010 10:34 PM CST up reply actions
I Get The TO Gone Argument
But this is really a reach; TO needed to go and I think Jerry was on a road to get rid of him regardless of the acquisition of Roy. Besides, Roy sucked as bad in his fist half season with Dallas as he did last year so Jerry had to be a bit worried if the main reason to cut TO was the insurance policy named Roy. In contrast, not having the extra draft ammunition last year hurt very badly and this hole in the roster will be felt for years to come. The trade for Roy - who was better than even money gonna be free anyway - goes down as one of he worst trades by Jerry ever.
Ugh, I try not to think about Michael Oher or Percy Harvin with a star on their helmet.
They wouldn’t have helped anyway, right?…right? Somebody please tell me they would have sucked in Dallas.
Honestly
I would not mind cutting him and just pretending the whole thing was a bad dream. He’s dumb, slow, and can’t catch. I’d send a message to the team that a lack of effort will get you cut, no matter how much you get paid.
I am still happy that the team could run the offense even with this handicap known as the blocking marvel aka RW.
The offense still had the same production as last year without TO, found its true No. 1 and did this inspite of RW’s missed opportunities.
Ignore the Mainstream Media, EMBRACE THE HATE!!!!
Just Think What They Could Do Without Him
We could play 11 vs 11.
I think the reason most fans rip on Roy so much is...
… that da King gave up a lot to get him — and the early returns on this investment/acquisition have been shall we say, “sub-par.”
If #11 was getting paid Sam Hurd money, this would be a non-issue.
Is playing smart too much to ask?
he sucks at any price
the salary figures in because he is indulged with way too many reps. He should be covering kicks, maybe holding for FGs.
by I_miss_Switzer on Feb 23, 2010 5:57 PM CST up reply actions
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