Cowboys Draft '10: Bust Factors for Wide Receivers
by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 19, 2010 4:18 PM CST
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PrintFirst round wide receivers: Might as well flip a coin?
[Note: This is an update to a long-running analysis by Blogging The Boys lead writer Rafael Vela, in which he quantified the bust factors for every position picked in the first round of the draft]
Over the last ten years, 43 wide receivers have been drafted in the first round (only defensive backs have been drafted more often in the first round – 53 times). Of those first round receivers, 20 (44%) can be labeled as busts.
The criteria we apply for labeling someone as a bust is simple. If you become a consistent starter on your team, you’re a hit. If not, you’re a bust. We can argue till we’re blue in the face about about value or quality, but at the end of the day you have to remain a starter. For better or for worse, guys who looked promising but don’t start because of injuries are also listed as busts.
Sift through the top-tier rubble of the past ten drafts:
2000: Peter Warrick (CIN), Travis Taylor (BAL), Sylvester Morris (KC), R. Jay Soward (JAX),
2001: David Terrell (CHI), Freddie Mitchell (PHI), Rod Gardner (WAS)
2002: Ashley Lelie (DEN), Donte Stallworth (NO), Bryant Johnson (ARI),
2003: Charles Rogers (DET)
2004: Reggie Williams (JAX), Michael Clayton (TB), Rashaun Woods (SF)
2005: Troy Williamson (MIN), Mike Williams (DET), Matt Jones (JAX)
2006: None. Santonio Holmes was the only WR drafted in the first round.
2007: Craig Davis (SD), Anthony Gonzalez (IND)
2008: No WRs drafted in the first round
2009: Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK). Nine catches in 11 games makes this look like a bust in an otherwise fairly strong round. However, all selections remain under review, as we’ll likely need up to three years to make a final determination.
As you can see, the chances of landing a top notch WR in the first round are basically a coin flip. Now, consider that Golden Tate, Arrelious Benn, or Brandon Lafell may be available for Dallas' first pick, depending on whether Jerry Jones moves out of the 27th spot. Odds are that two or three of these players are going to be busts. Can you tell which ones are going to be a boom or a bust? Better yet, can you tell Jerry Jones?
The second round
Picking a wide receiver in the second round carries a lower financial risk, as player contracts are lower than for first-rounders. But the bust rate remains unchanged. If we use the same criteria as we did for the first rounders, the bust rate for wide receivers in the second round is 53% (24/45). Even if we reduce the requirements and define success as having been the starter on a team for at least one season, the bust rate drops only marginally to 49% (22/45).
The top 20 WRs by draft position
In 2009, the Sporting News ranked the then top 20 wide receivers in the NFL. Of the top 20 wide receivers listed, only 9 were first rounders. The others were three second, third and seventh rounders respectively, one fourth rounder and one UFA. The best wide receivers in the game do not necessarily come from the first round. See also: Drew Pearson and Miles Austin.
As an NFL franchise, there's only so much you can do to avoid a bust.
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I'm pathetic
Wow nice eye candy but I didn’t consider the link back to the topic
Never....admit...that. You lose man points..
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
9 out the 20 best WRs from the first round
Maybe the odds of bust are nearly the same from first to second round, but the odds of success look much better in the first round – that is unless you are content with a starting non-bust like Roy Williams.
You have to consider who is throwing them the ball
Look who is throwing Heyward Bay the ball and what team he is on….If he was on this team I would think he wouldve been on of the best WR in the league last season. Anthony Gonzalez is no bust..not sure why he is even listed same goes for Holmes
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
Interesting
Last year, we (Chiefs site) looked at the history of taking a receiver in the top ten….History says it’s a pretty bad move.
WRs have the highest bust rate out of any position
and thats because it is very difficult to determine as a scout or GM which players will be able to get separation at the next level and be able to beat press coverage. College receivers rarely see press coverage in college and the corners they face aren’t nearly as good as NFL caliber CBs.
Being a really good WR in the NFL requires a lot of work, like the qb position and some guys just don’t want to put in the time or effort and just rely on pure athleticism.
In Romo we Trust
I agree
I think the more important intangible are to success, the more I try to avoid using early round picks on those positions.
You can find WR, RB, QB, LB who play smart and train hard and will themselves to be succesfful but CB’s and LT’s need oto have overwhelming physical talent to succeed.
as many WRs you want to label a bust I can come up with twice as many OL..especially when were talking 1st and 2nd rounds
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
If I had the time Terry I would line them up for you.....
I can name plenty in the 2nd and 3rd rounds that have been bust for this team..hello…Peterman, Rogers?
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
wow, you named two who were Parcell's picks
You do know he isn’t the HC anymore, right??
In Romo we Trust
2007 3rd pick James Martin?.....The jury is still out on Brewster who was also a 3rd round pick...
Free a 4th round pick, yes I said 4th round, maybe the only good pick in the last 5+ years…maybe we should just draft 4th round lineman because 2nd and 3rd dont seem to work out too well.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
Way to go Cool
Showing the positive and negative side of busts is a well balanced approach. Sorry rechecking the article I lost focus. Nice job.
I'm sorry
But Anthony Gonzalez is definitely not a bust. He was only hurt this past season.
by Cowboysaficionado on Feb 19, 2010 10:20 PM CST reply actions
He lost his starting job due to injury
OCC stated above that players who aren’t starting due to injury are counted as busts.
I think a lot of people wouldn’t label him a bust. But he’s just a #2 WR even when healthy.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 20, 2010 6:47 PM CST up reply actions
thats a real good #2, probably a #1 on alot of teams...
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
Shocking...
you taking up for an Ohio State player.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 21, 2010 7:26 PM CST up reply actions
BTW....
I don’t dislike Gonzalez by any means, but there is nothing about his #’s that have made him to be a stud.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 21, 2010 9:29 PM CST up reply actions
I have this strange urge to go see a Bucs and Titans game..wth?
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
if it were me
I’d drop the texan and double up on the buc!
by Elberraco on Feb 19, 2010 10:54 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Here's your next assignment, Cool.C
Is it really true that WR’s have a higher rate of failure, or is it just perceived because it’s a position that, along w/ QB, gets a lot of attention, meaning the failures are noticed more?
If we analyze all positions over the last 10 or 15 years, would they also have a 50% Bust Rate??
Do you have the time to go through OT’s, centers/guards, RB’s, QB’s, DL, LB’s, CB’s, and safeties? (You sure have a lot more time on your hands than I do!) Because I wonder if they will have much better than 50% sucess either.
The point may be that the draft is a crapshoot, not just WR’s.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
Nope, it really has something to do with wide receivers
Check out Rafael’s posts from 3 years ago. He has the numbers for offense and defense.
We’ll update that analysis over the coming weeks, and trust me, WRs will still be the Kings of the Bust. The average ‘Bust Factor’ for all positions over the last 10 years is 28%, WR’s are almost twice that.
by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 20, 2010 2:00 PM CST up reply actions
forget the stats...on this team the bust factor is higher when it comes to OL....
We dont have a history of bust WRs being drafted for the most part so I dont see Jerry hesitating taking a WR in the first round as much as taking a OL in the first…like I said a big part of the bust factor when it comes to WR is what team the player is one and who is throwing him the ball…..You stick Randy Moss on the Raiders when he was a rookie with a QB like Russell thowing him the ball and Moss is a bust for sure…
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
and if you want to list some of the bust I have a some WRs taken in the first that are pretty good...
First, Anthony Gonzales and Santonio Holmes are not first round bust.
Here is a list of first rounders that are studs or showing they will be:
Reggie Wayne
Randy Moss
Andre Johnson
Calvin Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Marvin Harrison
Jermeny Macklin
Santonio Holmes
Anthony Gonzales
Our own Michael Irvin was a first round pick and so was Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Terry Glenn back in the day just to name a few.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
He didn't list Holmes as a bust
Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison were drafted before 2000.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 20, 2010 6:50 PM CST up reply actions
considering there is only a handful of WRs that go in the first round thats not bad
How many bust first round lineman are there?
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
not nearly as many as WRs, thats for sure
Fact is WR is the riskiest position to draft in the first and OL is the safest. Just stating the facts.
In Romo we Trust
yeah I know that, but I was just making a point plenty of WRs drafted in the first round do work out
I also forgot Ted Ginn….He was drafted by a bad Miami team, but seems to be getting alot better as the team does.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
I think Ginn is looking more like a bust than stud
I’d put Percy Harvin on that list. I think he’s going to end up being at least a really good #2 WR, better than or equal to Maclin.
Actually, your list does point out that most of the great WR’s drafted in the 1st rd and taken in the top 10 to top 15 overall.
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 20, 2010 7:36 PM CST up reply actions
*are taken
Drago says, "We must break you!"
by APerfectStar on Feb 20, 2010 7:37 PM CST up reply actions
aw yes, I forgot Harvin
Ginn..I think it is the team he is on…..Chad is not a big arm QB which he needs and that offense is pretty bad to begin with. Its not a WR friendly offense at all…
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
It's always tricky to judge a draft class after just one or two years
and using the criteria we used (Starter at position) can be especially hard on first and second year players. Also, as I stated above, we didn’t discount for injuries.
So yes, Gonzo might be the biggest stud WR ever to be drafted, but here are his starts over his three year career: 9-2-1.
Similarly, our very own Felix Jones would be considered a bust, with 0 starts in 08 and one start in 09 to his credit. But at the end of the day you draft in the first for a starter (except if you’re Al Davis and draft a kicker in the first). At some point in his career a first rounder needs to become a starter at his position in order not to be considered a bust.
by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 21, 2010 4:14 AM CST up reply actions
give it up Boyz, WR is the biggest bust position there is
Saying Ginn isn’t a bust is a joke and just proves my point
In Romo we Trust
"Is this some kind of bust? "
“Well, it’s very impressive, yes, but we need to ask you a few questions.”
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
the one in the red is on fire Aaron.....whats up with that...no Dallas Cowboys cheeleaders???...
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
Umm...is that a table or are those her abs? Yowza.
All kinds of cuteness in the middle there, too.
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Feb 20, 2010 7:25 PM CST up reply actions
Worst case scenerio...
say we drafted a WR with the 27th pick in the first round it’s not like were breaking the bank with him. It’s practically a high second round pick selecting that late. We are not using a top ten pick on a WR and praying he turns into a stud…..You would just hope that he turns out to be a good player, if not the cap is not crippled if he turns into a bust.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
It appears the Cowboys
will give Roy another year to prove himself. If that happens I don’t see a WR in the early
of the draft. I believe they will draft one and if a premier player falls it might be earlier.
If they are cutting Roy and there is not a reasonable FA available, I can see them them
going WR much earlier.
they will give him another year, but thats more the reason to draft a good one this year so he is ready when RW departs.
You dont want to go into the next draft desperatley needing to draft a WR because we have to…
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
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