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Cowboys Draft '10, Part Eight: Contra the Combine

Three cone drills? I don't have no three cones.  I'm not doing any three cones.

I don't have to show you any stinkin' three cone drills!

Indeed, the players really. in all likelihood, don't have to do any bench presses, or three cone drills or short shuttle times or 40 yard dashes.  It makes great television, and gives all the draft nuts like us lots to talk about, but let's be clear on where the teams have already done.

The Cowboys have already put a preliminary draft board together.  They assembled it in the last few weeks, based on personal scouting trips, game tapes and Senior Bowl observations.  This is the purest board.  A source who's worked on a few of these told me to look at my lists now, because these were the truest ratings.  They're based solely on performance, and are unsullied by 40 times, Pro Day workouts and smoke from fellow scouts, personnel types and agents. 

Dallas will assemble its final board in April, incorporating the Combine and Pro Day data, but how much of what goes on next week will help re-shape the board?  A source told me that the medical tests and the private interviews which take place behind the scenes at Indy will weigh more on the team's ratings than the on-field workouts will.

Star-divide

That makes sense.  The team should have at least two years worth of most prospects' game tapes to lean upon.  What it does not know at this point is the medical history of its players of interest.  Are any rehabbing injuries?  Have any rehabbed injures in the past.  Are there any odd medical conditions which should be known? 

These are the types of questions at which the Cowboys medical staff has historically excelled.  In '94 guard prospect Larry Allen was rumored to have a rotator cuff problem which might require surgery.  I heard this story up to and even after Dallas drafted Allen in the 2nd round.  Allen was healthy and proved his worth right away.  The same was true for Randall Godfrey.  He also had medical questions which the team checked out and waved off in '96.  He dropped a bit because of those questions and Dallas got a 2nd round value. Most recently, Dallas got a 4th round value on DE Chris Canty because the team did its homework and learned his eye injury after his senior season would not affect his vision long-term.

Other physical questions can be answered.  Does a prospect who seems a bit undersized have the frame to add weight?  What is a players level of conditioning?  Think Terrence Cody's Senior Bowl weigh-in photos, if your mind will allow it.  Or think Andre Smith last year.

These last two behemoths offer test cases on character and maturity. The Combine is the NFL's job fair. Each participant is interviewing with his prospective employers.  Has a player taken this seriously enough to get in shape?  To mentally prepare?  Can he answer questions about football?  Does he display the intelligence to pick up your scheme?  Does he display leadership qualities?  if he's had personal issues in the past, do his explanations satisfy you? 

The teams' coaches, scouts and even its front office types will get to interview dozens of prospects face-to-face and immediately compare notes.  Little, if any of this data will become public knowledge.  Yet this information will likely shuffle the Cowboys final board more than any 40 time.

We'll still have plenty of workout info to sort through.  But then, we already do. How many mocks have you already consumed on this, the 23rd day of February?  I have a test for all of you, that I'm going to try myself.  If you have a site or sites you follow, copy their ratings now, pre-Combine.  These are their performance-only breakdowns. Their preliminary boards.

Next, look at how much or how little they change once the Combine is over.  I'd be wary of any source who produces wild fluctuations based on 40 times or bench press tests.  If we fall for the sizzle of workout numbers, we're being sucked, as Bill Parcells used to say.  But we won't have agents or GMs to blame. We'll have only ourselves.

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2 AM posting…that’s a true cowboy fan. WOoooo

by Silenze on Feb 23, 2010 2:26 AM CST reply actions  

Looks like Julius Peppers will be an unrestricted free agent

I’m surprised I haven’t seen many people advocating for JJ to get Peppers.

2010 is uncapped. Jones could throw a Michael Jordan contract at him (i.e. remember when MJ played on 1 year contracts @ $45M per season). Dallas could get him for 2010 without handicapping 2011 if a cap is reinstated.

What gives?

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 6:43 AM CST reply actions  

Where would he play?

He’s not going to be a DE for Dallas, he’d be a 3-4 LB.

Plus there are alot of reports that think that Peppers plays when he wants too, and that if he got a big contract he would just be content.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 7:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Peppers

I am conflicted about him because he can really take over a game- but only when he really wants to. So frankly considering how well Spencer has come around I pass. IF spencer had not been able to take that last step I would be sorely tempted to take a chance.

by burmafrd1944 on Feb 23, 2010 7:27 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm consistently surprised by you guys

I’m assuming:

-he plays DE, and
-Dallas just signs him to a huge 1 year contract (which therefore doesn’t endanger future capped years).

I kinda struggle to see the downside, other than to JJ’s net worth (which I’m indifferent too).

Personally I think a combo of Ware, Spencer, Ratliff, Hatcher, Peppers could provide a nice pash rush.

You’re content with not making big changes to an 11-5 team? What’s everyone expecting for next years record?

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 8:14 AM CST up reply actions  

He wouldn't play DE in a 3-4

And he’s not better than Spencer.

We also can only sign one FA to a contract more than 5.5mil and I’d prefer they use it on a TEAM player, not some malcontent looking for his next big payday

by ChrisRichey on Feb 23, 2010 9:04 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

What are the rules on signing FA?

“We also can only sign one FA to a contract more than 5.5mil”

Is possible for them to sign a FA to a huge 1 year deal? Or is that prohibited by the CBA?

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 9:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Cowboys will not be huge spenders in free agency

Due to the “Final 8 rule” the Cowboys can only sing sign one player with a salary of 5.5 mil or more and any number of players with a first-year salary of no more than 3.7 mil and an annual increase of no more than 30 percent in the following years. Signing someone like Julius Peppers would be stop the progress of the younger guys like Spencer and Butler. They cant mess up the draft.

by Antonio S on Feb 23, 2010 9:28 AM CST up reply actions  

the wording is ambiguous.

“the Cowboys can only sing sign one player with a salary of 5.5 mil or more”

That sounded like the Cowboys could sign a player to contract with a salary greater than $5.5M.

However, after a little looking around, my understanding is the way the rule works is Dallas can only sign one FA with a max first year salary of ~$5.5M. It only says “or more” because the $5.5M is an estimate and it may be $5.6M or $5.4M, but the bottom line is that they get one max contract FA.

is that right?

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 9:37 AM CST up reply actions  

They get one Free Agent contract that is not limmited by the final 8 rule

Also, signing players that are wavied from their current team are not restricted by the final 8 rule.

If a player becomes a FA because his contract expires then the final 8 rules apply. If a team cuts a player to take advantage of the no escilating cap advantage in the uncapped year then that player is free to sign with any team including the final 8 teams.

by Trey, on Feb 23, 2010 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I know he plays DE for a....

4-3, but he isn’t a 3-4 end, he would be an OLB.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 9:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Now, I think Pepper has enough Brat in him to whine his way in to OLB

but at 300+ Lbs and great height, he could totally be a 3-4 DE.

Even Greg Ellis had a decent year as a 3-4 DE and he’s not nearly as big. He’d be a formidable pass rushing 3-4 DE. I know this is fantasy island land, but he’d be a 5 star pick up for that spot. Imagine facing a front 7 that has Spencer, Ware Ratliff and Peppers. We’d bury the league’s QBs

by AustonianAggie on Feb 23, 2010 10:05 AM CST up reply actions  

2005, his first season in a 3-4

Greg Ellis played DE. Canty backed him up. Ellis swtiched in 2006

by AustonianAggie on Feb 23, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions  

wait wait, my bad, he played on the left side

so Spears backed him up. If you recall the first game that season, in SD, by the second defensive series BP was rotating the whole line. We started
Ellis, Glover and (someone I can’t remember) and they rotated with Spears, Fergeson and Canty

by AustonianAggie on Feb 23, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Hmmmm

Maybe your right.

One way or another I think peppers would want to play OLB.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

Your right....It's easy to remember his career events based on the annual whineing.

In 2002 he whined that he could not wait for his contract to end to secure his long term fincial future and signed a contact extension.

In 2003 the team hired Parcells and the team ran the installed 4-3 defense. Ellis whined that Grant Wistrom got a much bigger contract by waiting until he was actuually a free agent.

In 2004 the team drafted Ware, Spears, Canty and signed Furgeson and made the switch to the 3-4. Greg then whined about losing his job and having to play DE and line up against the big boys and that it was going to shorten his career.

In 2005 the team moved him to 3-4 and let him feast off single blockinging playing opposite of a rising D Ware. He whined about it because it might devalue him if he could not do it..

In 2006 he again whined about the money and skipped the OTA’s.

In 2007 he whined because they drafted another DE with the intention of eventually replacing him and the fact that he never got an over inflated contract like Wistrom. He was not comming off an injury he most likey would have held out of training camp that year. To console him the team adjusted his contract giving him more upfront money despite the fact he was injured and they had Spenser on the roster.

In 2008 Ellis took a short break from whining in public. Some fans had momemts of hope for the end of the annual Greg Ellis whine.

In 2009, he dashed those hopes. Whined for an adjustment ot his adjustment and complained that Dallas spent two 4th round picks on outside line backers. Dallas cut him and he signed a contract with Oakland that pays him about 60% of what he would have made under his Dallas contract.

.

by Trey, on Feb 23, 2010 1:55 PM CST up reply actions  

That was

if he was not comming off an injury he most likey would have held out of training camp that year.

by Trey, on Feb 23, 2010 1:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I was assuming there were no constraints on what Dallas could pay for one year.

in that world, here are some possible contracts. I’m sure, even you can see how one can make the 1 year contract large enough that it would be preferable to the longer term contact.

-a 1 year contract for $60M
-a 2 year contract for $60M
-a 3 year contract for $60M

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 9:42 AM CST up reply actions  

I get you....

I understand what you’re saying, but where would he fit with Dallas?

Even if there weren’t constraints, Peppers isn’t a fit in Dallas right now.

Now if this was a big name Tackle or 3-4 End, I could see that, but Peppers wants to be a 3-4 OLB.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 10:02 AM CST up reply actions  

the whole discussion is moot

I didn’t understand the constraints of the CBA.

ChrisRichey already made the relevant point, which is that Dallas is limited to signing one $5.5M FA. So Dallas can’t offer a huge one year contract and the idea doesn’t work.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Good God

Two points

1. what’s to stop another team from doing this to Miles Austin?
2. More important, the owners are threatening to lockout the players next year, on the argument that they are losing money.

So, you’re going to then see Jerry Jones (who is one of the negotiators, BTW) hand out a one year, $60M deal?

Riiiiiight.

DeMaurice Smith would laugh him out of the room.

by Rafael Vela on Feb 23, 2010 10:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Raf, with point 1, are you implying there is a gentleman’s agreement between owners to not poach players during this tumultuous negotiation period?

I’m just curious cause thats the sort of thing that could wreck the NFL’s status as a tolerated trust

by AustonianAggie on Feb 23, 2010 10:13 AM CST up reply actions  

No, there's no point in inserting poison pills unless you get a LONG TERM

contract.

Does it make any sense, in a sport as injury prone as football, to give a guy a huge one year deal, and then not have the assurance he’s staying?

And nobody is going to hand out a huge deal with a huge bonus. What if you get a cap next year? If the owners get what they want, the cap will come down. You do that after signing a deal like this and you blow up your salary structure for 2010.

Not going to happen, IMO.

by Rafael Vela on Feb 23, 2010 10:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Is there any chance the actual financial books of an NFL team will come to light during this?

I wonder wow many smaller teams relied on revenue sharing to supplement their finances.

by AustonianAggie on Feb 23, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions  

cut me some slack Raf

I have build my logic like a geometry proof for Terry.

I threw out $60m arbitrarily to illustrate the point that you can always make a 1 year contract as attractive as a longer term deal if you don’t have a cap.

It’s all moot because of the CBA rules on max contracts.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I thought Dallas couldn't sign a top FA

because we are top 8 team?

Seems like a lot of money to pay a guy learning a new position?

FEED THE BEAST!!!
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Feb 23, 2010 12:56 PM CST up reply actions  

you're missing my point thick n thin

Peppers will be looking for a long term deal, not 1-3 year deal.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 23, 2010 10:47 AM CST up reply actions  

Why do people think Dallas

needs to sign every player that becomes a FA? Build through the draft.

by DIRE WOLF on Feb 23, 2010 10:52 AM CST up reply actions  

Let's keep a list!

So far we have…

Adam Jones
Shayne Graham
Matt Jones
Antrell Rolle
L.T.
Darren Sharper
Wilfork’s been mentioned
Julius Peppers
Antonio Cromartie (who is mentioned on nearly every SB team site)
Chris Penn

BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.

by Aaron Novinger on Feb 23, 2010 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

Todd Archer just threw LT into the mix

albeit veiled in a ‘The Cowboys are not in the mix’ post.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 23, 2010 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Sign em all

cept Jones……either one, jk
I think Rolle might be a nice pickup at the right price, Sharper will probably get paid good money, LT we don’t need, nor any other RB. I liked the thought of Graham but I want Beuhler to win the job anyways, Wilfork we have no chance of getting, Peppers wants to be an OLB but he wouldn’t be one and we have a nice log jam at both positions, Cromartie would be nice but we would have to get rid of Choice and that would open up getting a RB at cheap (maybe LT wants to win a Championship so bad he’ll take a 1 year 1.5 mil contract) but that just makes more confusion

by nicholas.rodriguez on Feb 23, 2010 2:50 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm thinking the Cowboys will do similar to what they did in FA.

No big names like the ones above, but some guys under the radar once the initial frenzy subdues.

Maybe a veteran interior lineman such as Rex Hadnot, an ILB like Matt Wilhelm from SF. How about a FB? Jeremi Johnson from Cincy is a UFA.

BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.

by Aaron Novinger on Feb 23, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Chris Penn?

Why would Dallas want to sign Sean Penn’s dead brother?

Drago says, "We must break you!"

by APerfectStar on Feb 24, 2010 2:17 AM CST up reply actions  

you know what's extra funny

is you think “Chasing shiney things again.” is clever when its actually a logical fallacy.

ad hominem specifically.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 23, 2010 7:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually its not an ad hominem argument. Nor is an ad hominem argument necessarily a logical fallacy.

It attacks no person in particular, and makes no disparaging remarks towards anyone. Instead, it says that going after big name free agents in the hope that said free agents would enhance an already good team is “chasing shiny things”. While that argument requires backup, it is in no way an ad hominem attack.

As an example of ad hominem: “We can’t believe Person A when he says that Julius Peppers would be a good signing for Dallas because Person A has a long nose.” This type of “argument” is used a lot in election political ads.

In general, when Raf coined that phrase “don’t chase shiny things” he means that big name free agents aren’t generally the best way to build a team, especially since it would mean overpaying them, and you would have less to give to someone else in a position of need, nor is a big name free agent likely to be a long-term solution. As he recommends, we should build through the draft, and use free agency to merely supplement that and “paper” over holes on the roster, until a long-term solution comes to light.

At any rate, the argument is moot because of the fact that we only have one 5.5 million dollar contract to give, as you stated earlier.

by mdlusk on Feb 24, 2010 12:20 AM CST up reply actions  

Super owned!

Drago says, "We must break you!"

by APerfectStar on Feb 24, 2010 2:18 AM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, what he said. LOL!

It was just an observation. One that I noticed others picked up on.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Feb 24, 2010 5:24 PM CST up reply actions  

mdlusk excellent post. this can actually lead to a productive discussion.

I’m going to disagree with you. It comes down to what you think ‘chasing shiny things’ means. While you argue that it has no negative connotation, I’ve typically seen it used in a deragatory fashion. Example below

http://www.theofficelife.com/business-jargon-dictionary-S.html
 
And from my history with Squid, I believe that’s exactly how Squid meant it. Squid has a history of responding to arguments with petty insults.

“When you were a kid a couple of years ago, how many times did you burn yourself before you figured out what hot meant.”

“Do us a favor, stay away from game film. You can’t evaluate it This is the kind of info you get off of DMN blog. Clueless”
 
From that context (and Squid can correct me if I’m wrong) when he says ‘stop chasing things’ I don’t think it’s a nuanced argument that Dallas needs to focus on fundamentals instead of being distracted by the potential of free agents. My read is that Squid is in fact saying "the person arguing that Julius Peppers would be a good signing for Dallas is stupid". Then it’s clear that an ad hominem argument is exactly what it is.

Which I think is funny, because Squid thinks it’s really clever when in it’s actually evidence that he does’t understand logic.

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Feb 25, 2010 8:55 AM CST up reply actions  

No, chasing shiney things is an old Raf article.

I actually do want to stay away from from overpriced FA and build though the draft. It absolutely is a fundamental thing.

The " how many times do you burn yourself before you figure out its hot" was directed at you wanting to resign that train wreck Pacman. We signed him and he burned us. Sorry my opinion after that fiasco was “Its stupid”. Im not alone in that opinion.
 I read as many publications as anyone else on here. Im as obsesses as the next guy. I have never read anywhere Free is a waist bender. I figured that was a personal observation. I havent observed that at all.
If memory serves me right, Free was a hurdler in HS(all state?) and signed a football scholarship as a TE. Because of his size he was switched to tackle. Great feet but a little weak was the biggest beef I ever heard in his game. It was very evident in his game early in his career he needed to bulk up and hit the weights.
I actually enjoyed our exchange for a while but somewhere it went south. Sorry not my intention. If I took it to a personal level, please accept my apology.

KICK ASS every day!!!

by squidlo97 on Feb 25, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Unfortunately it seems we were using different frames of reference from each other.

Squidlo and I were referencing Raf’s coined phrase about not relying on free agents, while you were using this one (from that link):

Shiny objects [n.] A derogatory reference used by bitter salespeople when they lose a prospect to the ‘product of the week.’ “These idiots don’t know what they want, they’re just out there chasing shiny objects”.

I had not even known that reference existed so I apologize I thought we did have a common frame of reference. I had thought that Raf had used that phrase on this blog somewhat recently, but perhaps it was a while ago, or perhaps even before the Blue and Silver Report (where I followed Raf and Raul before) merge with BTB. Regardless, Raf’s admonition summed up in that phrase does belong here as it adresses the subject matter on its own merits (even if it is not agreed with).

At any rate, I don’t believe in this instance it could be imputed as an ad hominem, or a personal attack. For any other time, of course, Squidlo would have to answer for himself.

by mdlusk on Feb 26, 2010 2:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Raf,

During the presidential election, a news source stated," Picking a vice president will not win you the election, but picking the wrong vice president will lose the election for you."

I am curious how often good prospects fall because of a poor showing at the combine. Some of these 22 year olds may struggle with an interview, pull a hamstring during workouts, or just have a below-par performance.

It stands to reason that if combine workouts will (or should) not propel you up a draft board, they should not drive you down too far either. That thinking is very linear, however, and may not necessarily be true.

Thoughts?

by ScarletO on Feb 23, 2010 7:27 AM CST reply actions  

Interviews

A veteran interviewer can see past diversions and lies and nervousness and get a feel for a person. To me that is the most critical part of the combine.

by burmafrd1944 on Feb 23, 2010 7:31 AM CST reply actions  

I said the exact thing yesterday in another thread

The combine is definitely fun to watch, but the performances are really mostly fluff with little substance to real scouts and the GMs. Only unknowledgeable fans think 40 times, bench presses and 3 cone drills really matter.

Like I said, these performances might break a tie between two players pretty much dead even on a team’s draft board, but it’s really foolish to think team’s will push up a players overall grade just because he runs a really fast 40. Like Raf said, the teams already have their board put together, it will only be altered by medical and character information learned at the combine and subsequent interviews.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 23, 2010 8:04 AM CST reply actions  

What you and Raf

are saying may be true for players from the Big Ten or the SEC but I don’t think it holds true for players from the smaller schools. There is not as much tape on the smaller school guys and they are playing against competition that is considered inferior to that of the big conference schools. The combine, along with pro days, help determine whether the smaller school players at least have the measurables to compete with the guys from the larger schools.

by jevans1729 on Feb 23, 2010 9:43 AM CST up reply actions  

true

look at Ware, he was projected as a 2 rounder coming out in 05, he ran well and look very agile in the combine and we took him 11th in the first round

by LiLGiT on Feb 23, 2010 9:55 AM CST up reply actions  

not true

There was plenty of tape of Ware from Troy and the Senior Bowl, what he did at the combine had very little to do with why we took him 11th overall in ’05.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 23, 2010 10:50 AM CST up reply actions  

That may be true about Ware

but what Jason Williams did at his pro day had a lot to do with him being our first pick in last year’s draft. Williams is the highest draft choice out of Western Illinois since 1962 and he didn’t even get invited to the combine.

Williams was drafted at #69 last year. Some players drafted behind him from that school were Will Petersen (78), Bryan Cox (113) and Rodney Harrison (145). It is hard for me to believe that the Cowboys had Jason Williams with a 3rd round or higher grade at this time last year before the combine. I just believe that the workouts are more important for the smaller school players relative to the big conference players at the same position(s).

by jevans1729 on Feb 23, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I disagree

Cowboys aren’t going to draft a player based upon a pro day workout, that would be foolish. Small college players have game tape, same as the D1-A players, and I don’t find it hard to believe the Cowboys drafted Williams based on what he accomplished at W Illinois.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 23, 2010 12:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I didn't say that they drafted

him based on a pro day workout. I said his pro day had a lot to do with him being our first pick and a 3rd round draft choice.There just aren’t that many projected ILBs around with sub 4.5 speed. He may have been a player of interest before his pro day but history of draft picks from that school say that he is an exception.

If you believe that the Cowboys had Williams as a 3rd round or higher grade how do you explain him not being invited to the combine? How many players can you think of who were drafted in the third round and not invited (I’m not saying who didn’t perform) to the combine?

by jevans1729 on Feb 23, 2010 1:49 PM CST up reply actions  

there are a lot of good players that aren't invited to the combine

There is absolutely no way the Cowboys increased his draft garde significantly based upon one workout, Ciskowski is a much better scout than that.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 23, 2010 2:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Those good players that

aren’t invited to the combine are called undrafted free agents not third round draft picks.

by jevans1729 on Feb 23, 2010 3:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Indeed.

He went on to have a tremendous Pro Day.

BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.

by Aaron Novinger on Feb 24, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Wow,

there is some serious circular logic going on here so let me try and clear this up. You said that players don’t significantly improve draft grades at the combine. I said that it affects small school players more than big conference players and used Jason Williams as an example. He had a great Pro Day and was drafted in the third round.

In Aaron’s latest article there was a specific link showing the Cowboys drafting Williams and Mayock or some other commentator said Williams increased his draft round by 3 or 4 rounds because of his Pro Day. You said there is absolutely no way the Cowboys increased his draft grade based on one workout yet the experts disagree with you as do I. Since you were wrong in the first debate, I will give you another chance.

You said there are a lot of good players that aren’t invited to the combine, and I said they are undrafted free agents. You used Jason Williams (of all people) to support the position that I was wrong. Since Williams was picked at #69 are you saying that it is normal or frequent for players rated in the top 100 not to be invited to the combine or not to become undrafted free agents? Which one or both or none?

by jevans1729 on Feb 24, 2010 5:31 PM CST up reply actions  

I wasn't wrong in the first debate

I don’t believe Williams was drafted in the 3rd round because of his pro day, thats just something NFL Network employees want you to believe show you watch the combine.

Williams wasn’t invited to the combine not because he wasn’t rated in the top 100 by most teams prior to the combine, it’s because he was a small college prospect, many good small college prospects don’t get invited to the combine.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 25, 2010 9:00 AM CST up reply actions  

There have actually been numerous first and second round picks

that were not invited to the combine.

RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.

by aussie_cowboy on Feb 24, 2010 6:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Some examples

The last player not to attend the combine and be drafted in the 1st round was Darrien Gordon, CB Chargers in 1993. A prominent example for a second rounder is Osi Umenyiora, picked by the Giants in 2003.

Non-combine players from last year’s draft:

Mike Mitchell – S Raiders – 2nd round 2009
Sebastian Vollmer – OT Patriots – 2nd round 2009
Derek Cox – CB Jaguars – 3rd round 2009

Oh, and Ratliff wasn’t invited either.

Of the 2,548 players drafted in the last 10 years, 393 (or 15 percent) weren’t invited to the NFL Scouting Combine. Here’s a breakdown (without names though) from nfl.com.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 25, 2010 3:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Thanks for that

RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.

by aussie_cowboy on Feb 25, 2010 3:54 AM CST up reply actions  

Dirty deeds done dirt cheap

we bloggers abroad need to stick together – and do our dirty deeds while others are asleeep :-)

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 25, 2010 5:12 AM CST up reply actions  

OCC

Thanks for the data. So, we now know that there has been one player drafted in the first round in the last 16 years that did not attend the combine. I was talking invited but I’ll take attended in this case. So I think I can safely say it’s not normal or frequent which was my question.

As for Umenyiora, he actually did attend the combine. He did 26 bench press reps, was measured and weighed, but did his other tests at his Pro Day.

Ratliff was a 7th round pick not a 1st or 2nd rounder.

As for the other 3 players you named 2 of them were picked by teams who are not affiliated with the combine, the Raiders and Patriots who do their own scouting. So we now have one player not invited to the combine that was picked by a team that subscribes to the combine. Is it safe to say that is an exception to the norm?

Aussie and OCC, you guys were putting forth a different question than the question I was asking Terry. I asked Terry did he think it was normal or frequent that players rated in the top 100 were not invited to the combine? It is his belief that Dallas always had Jason Williams as a 3rd round pick and his Pro Day times had nothing to do with his draft position.

Thanks OCC for taking the time to point out that 85% of drafted players were invited to the combine.

by jevans1729 on Feb 25, 2010 10:11 AM CST up reply actions  

No I wouldn't disagree with you that it is unusual

but nor is it unheard of. However I would suggest that Dallas probably had Williams rated as a 3rd round choice before his Pro Day.

And Umenyiora actually didnt attend the combine.

If you are looking for a good article on the subject, look here.

RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.

by aussie_cowboy on Feb 25, 2010 6:26 PM CST up reply actions  

And throwing in a few ACDC references

never hurts either.

RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.

by aussie_cowboy on Feb 25, 2010 6:19 PM CST up reply actions  

ha ha thought you might appreciate that

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 26, 2010 6:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Well,

it looks like dueling information on the Umenyiora attendance at the combine thing. I do believe the initial discussion was invited as opposed to attending but his wilkipedia page, for example, lists some of the data developed on him as coming from the combine. I wasn’t there so I can’t speak to the actual accuracy.

I would be interested in what information you are basing your conclusion that Dallas had a third round grade on Williams before his Pro Day. I will readily admit that I do not personally KNOW whether he had an original 3rd round grade or not.

by jevans1729 on Feb 26, 2010 7:24 AM CST up reply actions  

because Ciskowski isn't an idiot

He’s a great scout and isn’t going to over value a player and increase their grade tremendously simply because of a great workout.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 26, 2010 9:27 AM CST up reply actions  

That all very

well may be true. I just don’t seem to be able to find anyone who thought that Williams was a 3rd rounder prior to his Pro Day. I guess Mr. Ciskowski is the exception.

by jevans1729 on Feb 26, 2010 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

That's what the Senior Bowl is for

Now, they may get some data on small school guys, but at the end of the day, you’re basing your projections off of workouts and games, not strictly off workouts.

by Rafael Vela on Feb 23, 2010 10:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Do you think basing projections off of offensivelinemen...

in these all star games is very well advised?

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like in all of these all american, senior bowls, and all star games that the defense looks way ahead of the o-line.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 10:38 AM CST up reply actions  

They base OL off of the practices not the games.

Most scouts and GMs leave the Senior Bowl on the Thursday before the game. They have already seen all they needed by then. The game is for the fans.

by Flounder69 on Feb 23, 2010 12:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Oakland Raiders

I wonder how much the Raiders change their board based on the combine? They ALWAYS draft speed. It almost seems that they base their draft board ENTIRELY on 40 times.

4.40 and lower = 1st rounder. 4.50 and lower = 2nd rd.. etc.. LOL

by theboysfan on Feb 23, 2010 8:17 AM CST reply actions  

Thanks

Definitely worth reading. I usually enjoy work from Lombardi. Personally, I’m more interested in how players look in position drills than I am in 40yd dash times. I do like to look at some of the agility drils though. Ogletree did extremely well in those drills last yr.

by theboysfan on Feb 23, 2010 8:38 AM CST up reply actions  

DMN Blog

Raf,

Why is it every time you write up an excellent article, about an hour later a very similar one appears on Dallas Morning News’ blog site? Are these guys trolling our site looking for story lines?

http://cowboysblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2010/02/dont-get-fooled-by-combine-results.html

by Impatient on Feb 23, 2010 10:59 AM CST reply actions  

Yeah he did.

And I do think this site is trolled quite a bit. Raf’s blog was the first place I’d heard the term “Romosexual” used and a couple weeks later it had caught on like wildfire.

by illcowboy on Feb 23, 2010 5:47 PM CST up reply actions  

No kidding

Roll out of bed and check BTB for story ideas, then go type up the same piece in your own words. Must be nice.

Drago says, "We must break you!"

by APerfectStar on Feb 24, 2010 2:32 AM CST up reply actions  

Funny

I forgot to post this a while ago, but after Raf’s point about most of the top penalized teams doind well in the playoffs, Gerry Fraley posted it 1-2 days later.

Good stuff Raf.

by selke99 on Feb 23, 2010 12:44 PM CST up reply actions  

Personally I think the Combine is flawed.

If I was a GM, I would want every drill run in full pads. I do not care how fast someone is in track shorts, i care what their game speed is and how they carry their pads. OL and DL should not run the 40, they should run the 15 because that will show everything teams need to see. I like the agility drills, but again only in full pads. The lifting is okay, but it is not necessarily a true indicator of functional strength.

by Flounder69 on Feb 23, 2010 12:21 PM CST reply actions  

rofl

The Bossness Of David Buehler.

I will steal that as a title for a future post, the title alone would make that a post worth reading!

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 24, 2010 6:24 PM CST up reply actions  

when the combine first came about

there was a lot more reason to have all the tests and the measurments. Now the way any good prospects are examined from their sophomore year in HS on no one is going to be found to be suddenly a lot smaller or lighter then they have been rumored to be. With all the workouts and all star games and pro days, the actual need at the combine for the 40 and other tests are pretty much extraneous. Its the physical exams and interviews that matter. It s like in the 60’s and early 70’s when the Cowboys were hitting small colleges and basketball players before anyone else did. 20 years ago the combine was a lot more important then it is now.

by burmafrd1944 on Feb 23, 2010 12:22 PM CST reply actions  

Draft Strategy/Wants/Needs/Rambling/etc

I really don’t think they should take someone like Taylor Mays if he drops, his on the field production has been pretty bad. He got burned in college by taking awful routes, missing tackles, etc. The Cowboys already have players that can do that on the roster. I want Bruce Campbell, mainly so I can have him sign my copy of Evil Dead, but also because I feel he’s a perfect fit for the team. He’s a great run blocker, and talented enough to improve his pass protection. Adams is getting old, but on the plays where he doesn’t jump the line he’s as good as anyone. Not many players can shut down Trent Cole in back to back weeks. However, he’s probably only got two or three years left in him…Campbell needs time, and KC Joyner had great things to say about his run blocking skills. After Campbell I want either Iupati or to trade out of the first, because there’s likely not a pressing enough need to spend a first round pick on. Perhaps if they don’t re-sign Spears they should take Odrick. But, I don’t like the idea of taking a WR or a RB in the first round…they’re both pretty fungible positions and tend to rely more on the rest of the team than anything else, unless you’re able to get a true top tier one. After that I want either Nate Jones or Chad Jones in the second, dream scenario. And I hope against hope that Jordan Shipley lasts to the Cowboys in the third.

by Omar Little on Feb 23, 2010 2:40 PM CST reply actions  

Ehhh...

Well, I think as of now that Pouncey can be had in the second round, so if Pouncey’s the guy that they want they can trade out of the first and pick up more picks in the second and rounds and get Pouncey in the mid second then maybe try to nab one of the Jones’ for safety. That being said, I think their biggest need is at tackle…while I don’t think guard is as big of a need as some of the other positions, Iuptai is a once in a decade talent so he’s probably worth the pick even though his position isn’t the biggest need. After tackle I’d say safety and wide receiver, there’s two great safeties that can be had in the second round and Shipley is the underrated type to go in the third. Other than that there’s guys like Gilyard and other talented WRs that can be had in the late 2nd and 3rd round area.

by Omar Little on Feb 24, 2010 2:42 PM CST up reply actions  

I think it's funny that Mayock...

is touting Sergio Kindle as better than Orakpo coming out of Texas.

I was saying at the beginning of the college year that Kindle would end up being a better and more complete player than Orakpo.

I’m good at seperating homerism from just watching talent, and Kindle has the potential to be one of the elite OLB’s in 3 years.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 3:04 PM CST reply actions  

The Combine Matters

CBs that run sub 4.4 move up, CBs that run under 4.5 move down. Several have brought up D Ware as an example. Nobody was talking first day pick before the Combine. I don’t remember anybody saying first pick of the first round – but we all love that pick.

The way I see it is at the end of the season, guys with top 10 hype just disappear. The can’t climb much higher and making a mistake at the Senior Bowl, or Combine could cost them big money. For the guys in the next tier, some want that big money and are willing to push the weights and run the drills, think Vernon Davis. The rest have to compete or risk having somebody look strong/quick and move past them.

The current boards may be the most pure, but take a good look at the best players, they are the biggest, fastest, strongest, smartest and the ones that play with the most hunger. Look back at some recent RBs, AP had a great 40 and is all world. Dmac at a better 40 and can’t stay on the field. How many GMs would jump if Dmac was available – probably 31.

by birdness on Feb 23, 2010 4:24 PM CST reply actions  

It must matter to some people....

They send scouts.

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 4:54 PM CST up reply actions  

It matters

it’s a tool that teams use like film and talking to college coaches ect.

by DIRE WOLF on Feb 23, 2010 5:52 PM CST up reply actions  

I never once said it doesn't matter at all

What I said is that it’s over hyped and doesn’t determine players draft grades as most fans think they do. Scouts and GMs attend mainly for the interviews and medical exams and like I said earlier to serve a tie breaker between players.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 24, 2010 8:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Character, character, character

whether it’s because of Parcells, JJ, or Stephen Jones’ influence, this has been the real trend of Dallas’ drafts lately.
It seems to be just as important as all the physical factors, and thank goodness. You can’t keep investing in guys who are going to shoot themselves in the foot (figuratively or literally) when so much $$ is on the line.

Whatever happens, let’s just hope they stick with that.
And OLine!

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009

by Realist Larry on Feb 23, 2010 5:38 PM CST reply actions  

Amen.

At the time, I was all for getting TO and Pacrat, but I’ve learned the error of my thinking.

by illcowboy on Feb 23, 2010 5:48 PM CST up reply actions  

you are forgiven, child

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009

by Realist Larry on Feb 23, 2010 10:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Funny

That’s what I said.

But I also like the idea of moving up if Bulaga or Campbell is there around 15-17.

"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Feb 23, 2010 7:55 PM CST up reply actions  

You said that...

Ducasse is scratched from my list now. : )

John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!

by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Feb 23, 2010 8:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Did you read the article?

Mayock compared Ducasse to Duane Brown (a tackle with a third round grade drafted in the first) who many Texans fans consider to be on of the ten worst pass blocking tackles in the league. I will pass.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Feb 24, 2010 12:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I think he was comparing him to Brown in the sense he would be a surprise pick

In fact I know that is how he meant it, because he has Charles Brown, Bruce Campbell, and Ducasse tied for 5th in his OT rankings.

2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it

by quincyyyyy on Feb 24, 2010 12:29 AM CST up reply actions  

Well I hope that is the case if there is a good chance we will draft him.

If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.

by Cowboyfan729 on Feb 24, 2010 12:42 AM CST up reply actions  

Mayock as usual is brilliant

I’ve touted Ducasse as a player the Cowboys should definitely target at #27, he has the size and potential the Cowboys covet for a tackle.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 24, 2010 8:13 AM CST up reply actions  

I think Ducasse is a potential Pro Bowl LT, but he is really raw,

and has a lot to work on. While that would fit nicely with Flo playing another year in front of him, I’m a little hesitant for the Cowboys to spend a 1st on him, even if other teams are willing to do so.

"Everybody wants something but nobody wants to pay the price" - Michael Irvin

by 24Hz on Feb 24, 2010 10:39 AM CST up reply actions  

not me, it represents the perfect pick IMO

Taking a guy who has a tremendous upside who doesn’t have to play right away.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 24, 2010 2:30 PM CST up reply actions  

I think combine is useful for teams that run a 3-4.

Teams get to see if a 4-3 de in college is fluid enough to transition to the 3-4 olb. Those change of direction drills show if a guy has stiff hips or not.

by houseofprime on Feb 23, 2010 6:28 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

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