GM Jerry's Draft Board Profile

Over the past 20 years, GM Jerry has settled into a pattern of where he places "value" on the various rounds.  He's been amazingly consistent.

[Disclaimer:  I am not advocating agreement.  In fact, I'm on the record as being vehemently opposed in many circumstances.  However, as Rafael has duly noted in his draft previews, there are certain profiles that make up the "rules" by which all Cowboys fans should come to expect]

Round 1:  Skill Players - 22 Picks

Now this includes almost all EDGE players.  This includes QB, RB, WR, TE, CB, S, DE, OLB.  TE and Safety are debatable, but are included for analytical purposes.  LT is also included in most definitions of Skill/Edge players, but as I've stated in many posts (ad nauseum), GM Jerry has NEVER taken ANY OL in the 1st Round.

However, GM Jerry has modified his "value chart" somewhat over the years.  WR is the most notable.  But that's not to say that WR is not "drafted" in the 1st.  Jerry has stated that when he trades a 1st Round pick for a WR, he considers that player his 1st Round pick.  Given that standard, you have to include the 2 traded for Joey Galloway and 1 for Roy Williams as WR picks, though no player was selected.

There have been 22 draft picks.  As stated above, that includes 3 picks for Joey Galloway andRoy Williams.  A full 18 have been spent on Edge players.  Only Russell Maryland, Kelvin Pritchett, and Robert Jones are exceptions.  However, given the "Planet Theory", you could also include DT in the profile, but I didn't.

Another well known trend is that GM Jerry loves to trade down (and often out) of the 1st Round.  Seven (7) times we have not selected anyone in the 1st.  That's 35% of all GM Jerry drafts!  The number rises to an obscene level when picking lower than 20.  A cursory guestimate puts it between 2/3 and 3/4 of the time. 

Edge Trend Rating:  86% (95% incl Planet Theory DTs)

Round 2:  Need - 27 Picks

This round is a little more difficult to label.  At first, I was going to label this the Offensive Lineman round.  After all, since none are taken in the 1st Round (yeah, yeah, I'll stop) it must be, right?  Well, it has been the most prominent (30%), but further analysis saw another trend.

In the Early (JJ) years (89-93), we needed a lot of players.  Jerry (and Jimmy) traded down for many more picks in later rounds, and used the ones they kept for needed positions not met in Round 1.  Jimmy needed speed on Defense and Dixon Edwards, and Darren Smith fit the bill.  They also needed "playmakers" on Offense and Alexander Wright, Jimmy Smith, and Kevin Williams were all attempts at WR.

In the Backup Years (94-99), GM Jerry stated that no one could crack this roster, so he wanted solid backups. 
Fully 1/2 were OL, and players like Sherman Williams and Kendall Wadkins were obvious backups.  But something else started to show.  Quite a few were also replacing players that were being lost in FA or to retirement.  Larry Allen (replacing Gogan), Godfrey (Norton), Pittman (Haley), Flo (Tuinei), and Page (Williams) all were targeted to open starting positions.

The Lost Years (00-02), were even more desperate attempts to fill the post Triplet years.  Quincy Carter and Antonio Bryant are obvious, but the great search for DBs (00-01) and OL continued right up through the early Parcell years.

The ParcellYears (03-06) saw a true trend.  Go for BPA, usually in a need position, at a non-premier (i.e., not a QB or DE/OLB) position.  Julius Jones, Kevin Burnett, and Fasano all fit the bill, as did Rogers and Al Johnson.

Lately, the trend from Parcells continues, though with Martellus Bennett the only pick, it may seem that Trader Jerry is back to getting more quantity over the (IMO much needed) quality as in the Jimmy era.

Need Trend Rating:  None

Round 3:  Sleepers - 26 Picks

What is most evident is that the third round is chock-full of players that either slid down due to size/injuries/character issues (Godfrey Myles, Jimmie Jones, Kenny Wheaton, Coakley/Nguyen, Derrick Ross, Willie Blade, etc.) or are from small schools (Jason Williams, Robert Brewster, Jason Hatcher, Stepfret & Charlie Williams, Clayton Holmes, and most notably Erik Williams).  In fact, nearly a third (31%) came from non-Division I schools.

Another trend of the 3rd round is Offensive Lineman, especially Centers.  Now the fact that the 3rd is the most common start of the run on Centers, it's not that surprising.  Nearly 40% of the picks were on the big uglies.

But the amazing number of "fliers", as defined by the draftniks is amazing.  By my count, 20 of the 26 picks would be or were considered "reaches".  Only Jason Witten and most of the O-Lineman could be considered "value" picks.

Who? Trend Rating:  77% (31% Small School)

Round 4:  The Fallen - 33 Picks (30 for trend)

This is GM Jerry's favorite round.  It used to be the start of the 2nd Day (and will now kinda return as the 3rd Day) and was where all the War Rooms got a chance reset their boards.  It was a mad dash to grab all those players that had somehow slid past the first 3 rounds and pick up some real value.

And for all his faults, the list of hits in this rounds is quite amazing. 

• Tony Tolbert
• Ron Stone
• Brady James
• Chris Canty
• Marion Barber
• Tashard Choice

That's a great foreboding for our recent picks Victor Butler, Brandon Williams and QB McGee.  But the list also includes a boatload of highly touted picks (at the time) that were clear busts.  "Swervin" Curvin Richards, Derrick Lassic, Willie Jackson, Eric Bjornson, Kareem Larrimore, Alundis Brice, Michael Myers, Markus Steele, Skyler Green and Bruce Thornton all carried high expectations, but ultimately flamed.  Several others could be classified as near-misses (Peppi Zellner, Isaiah Stanback).

Boom Trend Rating:  20% (While low, the trend since BP arrived is a quite impressive 63%)

Rounds 5 (21 Picks) & 6 (23 Picks) - The Lost Rounds

This was easy to name.  Only one pick in each round (Scandrick in Round 5, Mario Edwards in Round 6) could be considered hits.  But even if you include Darrin Hambrick, Pat Watkins, Deon Anderson, John Phillips and David Buehler, the hit rate is pathetic.  Nick Folk did not make my "hit" list, so add one to your math if you'd like.

I did not include last year's picks in the trend rating. 

Hit Trend Rating:  5% (16% incl Marginal guys listed above with 3 incomplete(s) in last year's draft)

 Round 7 - Lucky (27 Picks)

At first I was going to label it "Special Teams", as this was the trend in the early years.  But the fact that so many fantastic gems have been scored, I decided to call it what it is...pure, unadulterated, dumb luck.  The "Hit" list is amazing.

• Leon Lett
• Brock Marion
• Patrick Crayton
• Jacques Reeves 
• Jay Ratliff 

Many, including Omar Stoutmire, Nathan Jones, and Alan Ball (among others) could be considered solid contributors, thus "hits" considering the low investment.  For the trend rating, I included only the starters.

Hit Trend Rating:  19% (25% incl solid contributors)

Conclusions 

1. If you're like me, hoping for your pet cat WR or OL in the 1st, you're most likely to be very disappointed.  In fact, we're most likely to hear "In the 27th spot, Dallas has made a trade".
2. Everyone is going to say "WHO?" in Round 3.
3. Round 4 should bring some talent.
4. Why even bother drafting in Rounds 5 & 6?  It's better to use them as trade bait to move up in the first four rounds or grab a few more 7s.