NFL Drafting 101

I don’t like looking too hard at the numbers. I prefer to let my own eyes tell me the truth about things in the world.

I’m just not the kind to delve too deeply into the myriad of statistics that the NFL continues to add, create and make available on the web.

Like you, I love the NFL draft. If Dallas isn’t in the Super Bowl, then the NFL draft is my favorite day of the NFL year. Not because of what I know, but because of what I don’t know. Who better epitomizes the topsy-turvy world of drafting than the free-wheeling Jerry Jones? Predicting what he’ll do with his picks is almost guaranteed to be a losing proposition. But, as crazy as it sounds, I think that makes me love it even more. There’s more conjecture, philosophy and debate about the NFL draft by every guy who can count to 32 than about the merits of healthcare reform. I know; scary right?

But in this post, I decided to mix it up a bit. I went back and did a deeper-than-normal dive into the drafts from 2005-2007 (wanted enough NFL performance history between the draft and present day) to see if I could derive what, in my opinion, were any meaningful trends about drafting. Again, there is absolutely nothing scientific or mathematically verifiable here, just my observations, and an invitation for you to give your own.

So, I looked position by position at the first round choices and tried to see if I could tell if it was safer to pick a DB in round 1 than a LB. Better to go O-line or RB? I based my findings off of what I’ve seen from good ol’ NFL Sunday ticket and my own trips to the games. So, here goes…

2005

Clearly, this draft was generally a bust for the NFL as a whole. It was led off by Alex Smith and co-starred such future Hall of Famers as Matt Jones and Erasmus James. Here’s how it looked;

• QB: awful, pitiful, blecht!
• RB: good, on the strength of Ronnie Brown and the now rejuvenated Cedrick Benson
• WR: stinky, Troy Williamson and Mark Clayton are bounded by Braylon Edwards and that man, Jones.
• TE: very good, Heath Miller, ‘nuff said. 
• OL: so-so, Alex Barron is blah, Logan Mankins made the pro bowl
• DB: ouch, Pacman, Antrell Rolle, and Fabien Washington, need I go on?
• LB: very solid, Ware, Merriman, Thomas Davis and Derrick Johnson
• DL: icky! Erasmus James and Mike Patterson

2006

It was a truly a turnaround in terms of talent from the prior year and maybe one of the best 1st rounds in the decade. Interesting choices;

• QB: uneven with more bark than NFL bite, VY, Leinart and Cutler
• RB: jackpot! Reggie Bush, Maroney, DeAngelo Williams and Joseph Addai
• WR: hmmm, Santonio Holmes and no mas
• TE: freak show…Vernon Davis and Marcedes Lewis
• OL: ding! ding! ding! D’Brickashaw (don’tcha just love that name?), Davin Joseph and Nick Mangold…wow!
• DB: uh oh…Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Tye Hill and Jason Allen
• LB: hits too close to home, AJ Hawk (best name in football?), Ernie Sims, Chad Greenway and…what’s that smell? Oh look, it’s Bobby C!!!
• DL: Buzzinga! (if you don’t watch Big Bang Theory, I pity you) Mario Williams, Tamba Hali, and old foes Bunkley and Kiwanuka

2007

While not as rich as the prior year, there were plenty of gems;

• QB: say it ain’t so! Ja-off the-marcus Russell and Brady Quinn
• RB: quality but not quantity, with just AP and Marshawn Lynch
• WR: I liked the appetizer, but the entrée? not so much, Calvin Johnson, Robert Meachem, Bowe, Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez
• TE: one is the loneliest number…but you have to like Greg Olsen
• OL: booyah!!! Joe Thomas alone makes this a good one (is he the best OT to come out in the decade?), Joe Staley is a stud, but Levi Brown is unsteady
• DB: take the good with the not-so-good, Revis, LaRon Landry, Brandon Merriweather, Reggie Nelson, Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin
• LB: maybe one for the ages? Patrick Willis, Jon Beason and our man Spencer
• DL: scheize! Gaines Adams, Jamal Anderson, Carriker, Jarvis Moss and Justin Harrell, oof…

So what, if anything, did we learn?

Well, at least over this short period, drafting a QB in round 1 was a bad move, although more recent trends with Sanchez, Ryan and Flacco say otherwise. If you’re a draftnik, it really makes you appreciate the QB class of 1983 even more…three HOF QB’s in the first round? Are you freakin’ kidding me?!?!? Running backs in round 1 were generally some of the safest bets out there. WR’s were, and continue to be, anyone’s guess. First round Tight Ends are almost a lock to be valuable contributors. Offensive linemen in the first round tend to be studs far more so than duds.

First round DB’s are the antithesis of O-linemen where there are more busts than booms. Linebackers are one of the safer bets in the first round and generated the highest number of pro bowlers in their particular subset (tied with O-linemen). Finally, D-linemen were a sour bunch in this exercise with several of them being non-factors on their teams.

And what does that mean for our Cowboys?

Anecdotally, it looks safer to take a Mike Iupati or a Vlad DuCasse than a Golden Tate. Skill players are the glamorous pick, no doubt, but investing in quality linemen on the offensive side of the ball seemed to have a bigger impact on teams’ ability to improve their play more quickly.

Now 2010 is a bit of an anomaly with the expiring CBA and different rules around Free Agency. Obviously, that will impact how players move (or don’t move) and change the way teams address roster needs.

Regardless, we’ve now begun the journey toward the moment when Roger Goodell will announce that first pick for the Cowboys and we can all start arguing the pluses and minuses of their actions. I can’t wait!