Cowboys Draft '10, Part Eleven: Managing the 1st and 2nd Round Turns (Part One)
by Rafael Vela on Mar 1, 2010 7:10 PM CST
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We continue our draft series looking at the possible benefits of picking at 27, assuming history repeats itself and the offensive tackles run high again.
Last week I mentioned that a run on offensive tackles in the '08 first round helped the Cowboys. I heard the team ran dozens of mocks pre-draft, going through every permutation they could imagine, to be prepared when their picks came up at 22 and 28. And not once did they get Mike Jenkins to pick 25, where he fell on draft day.
The reason was that teams like the Lions and Falcons took tackles rated lower than Dallas' first round guys. Looking at the draft board, I see there's a real chance that history could repeat itself. Right now, two tackle prospects look certain to get 1st round grades -- Oklahoma State's Russell Okung and Iowa's Bryan Bulaga. Two more likely have fist round grades. Rutgers' Anthony Davis was rated in the 25-35 range immediately after the college season and has risen to the top ten in many mocks recently, though he had a shaky Combine workout. Oklahoma's Trent Williams is hot and cold, depending on the draftnik you read, because he struggled as a left tackle last year.
A fifth candidate, Maryland's Bruce Campbell, could be rising after a dazzling weekend of workouts. People who watch his game tape are not ecstatic about him, but need may see his name called early on day one this April.
Real early.
Look at the teams in the top 20 who have offensive tackle high on their list of needs:
4. Washington -- Chris Samuels' career is likely over after a neck injury.
5. Kansas City -- The Chiefs need one. Brandon Albert had a lot of trouble playing LT last year.
6. Seattle -- Walter Jones has reached the end of the line.
8. Oakland -- The Raiders need a tackle and Campbell's workouts have many saying the size-speed loving Al Davis will covet him.
9. Buffalo -- the Bills traded LT Jason Peters to the Eagles last year and were stunned when RT Brad Butler retired last week. The Bills will want at least one and maybe two OTs this year.
13. San Francisco -- the Niners need a right tackle to pair with Joe Staley.
14. Seattle -- the Seahawks get another bite at the apple, and if they go quarterback or another position at six, they're not likely to pass on OT twice, provided one is available.
17,. San Francisco -- see Seattle at pick 14.
18. Pittsburgh -- the Steelers line has been a mess. They're often paired with Mike Iuputi, but they could use help along their line.
That's seven teams and nine potential picks which could realistically be used on offensive tackles. And there are only five consensus first-round candidates. Add two more teams in the 20s looking for offensive tackle, the Packers at pick 23 and Cardinals at pick 26, and the odds of one reaching the Cowboys look slimmer than slim.
On the other hand, a run on tackles, especially when a couple are dubious top 20 picks, in a very deep overall year, increases the chances that two or more players with legit first round grades on the Cowboys draft board could be pushed to 27. If a Vladimir Ducasse and/or a Jason Fox become this year's Gosder Cherilus or Duane Brown and sneak into the late first because teams are forcing OTs, Dallas' odds of getting some first round luck twice in three years go up even more
What's in a first round grade? That a Mike Jenkins by any other name, at any other position, would play as sweet(ly).
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Good stuff
This is why Dallas needs to pick the BPA and not focus on OT
by ChrisRichey on Mar 1, 2010 7:11 PM CST via mobile reply actions
The emergence of Free gives us the ability to wait
someone like Roger Saffold, Tony Washington, or Marshall Newhouse later in the draft would be nice
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Everyone knows we want a LT
if one drops someone my try to move up ahead of us.Seattle did it a few years ago to get a center they knew we had targeted.
My mantra right now is best player available.
this is why you
Think Thomas could drop to us.
What do you think of Rolle? I mean the cards had rolle, wilson, and drc, and still gave up 45 to the packers. Their secondary was god awful. Do you know how much of it was Rolles fault?
by TONYINCC on Mar 1, 2010 7:54 PM CST via mobile reply actions
guys that MIGHT fall due to the insanity on tackles
Earl Thomas, S
Kyle Wilson, CB
Dan Williams, NT
Carlos Dunlap, DE
Bran Price, DT
I’d be happy with any of these guys stepping in to play right away for us. According to Quincyyyy, Price is a 4-3 DT, but I think Wade could find a place for him.
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
I don't know
he might be able to play NT in our scheme considering what Ratliff has done
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Well...
Earl Thomas seems a bit overrated, Brian Price should be a monster, but if the Cowboys are keeping Spears he’s superfluous…but you should likely go value over need, and let the rest of the situation shake out. Carlos Dunlap had a DUI, and apparently is lazy and doesn’t try very hard in practice, and merely relying on merely his pure physical tools rather than any sort of learned skill. Now I don’t have a problem with character guys if they’re talented…but I know others do.
having good players on the Dline is essential, not superfluous
I think one of our weaknesses on D is the ability to pressure the QB from somewhere other than Ware, Spencer, or Rat. QBs were able to step up in the pocket a little to comfortably at times with no push by the DEs.
I don’t think Earl Thomas is overrated. He will be a good pro for a long time.
You may have a point with Dunlap.
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
Superfluous
Well if they keep Spears, they have three pretty good 34 defensive linemen, yes I know it’s the NFL and players get hurt but that seems like overkill to me. I wouldn’t be upset if they took him at 27 since he’d be a great value, but still…he might not be the best pick there.
What about his game is overrated?
Not trying to be a Texas homer, but exactly what about him is overrated?
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 2, 2010 7:55 AM CST up reply actions
Overrated
Overrated =/= bad, just he’s getting compared to great players like Polomau and Ed Reed, and I don’t think he’s in that level.
Ability to tackle.
He is excellent against the pass, but I do not think he will be able to tackle well enough.
If you feel that Free is the answer at LT then ignore the following
The inability to draft quality linemen lately and the inability to get up into the the first is potential trouble.
If the majority of quality LT’s are found in the 1-20 spot, Dallas won’t be sniffing one out for sometime.
No, we're talking the top tier, likely to be taken in the 1st
There should still be good OT prospects in the later rounds.
Would be nice
If Golden Tate would slip to 27 he would be an outstanding guy for us a year from now
I am slowly warming up to a WR in the first round
but only if the top OL and S are gone.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 1, 2010 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
Hold on
we haven’t touched DL yet. This is a rich, rich year for D-linemen. The highest rated guy on the board at 27 may be a DL.
That is true
with guys like Odrick possibly being available, but I think FA will have a huge say in how we approach that position.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
agreed
Would immediatly solve our PR problems and Tate would push for the #3 or #4 WR spot this year. Alot of unknowns with this core of WRs. Adding a playmaker to the offense just makes sense and would insure we had a WR with some experience if RW is not around in 2011.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
sense?
i don’t think it makes sense to draft a wr in the 1st especially with the bust rate. it’s not a given he would even start for us. isn’t that what you want and expect from a 1st rounder?
it's called a satchel and indiana jones wears one.
lol at your last paragraph.
Quit drinking on the job Raf!
Happens every year...
…and the most fun part of the draft….guys you didn’t expect to go so soon do, which pushes everything back.
Within the first 26 picks, some of this would be nice…
-Best and Dwyer go
-Someone deals up for McCoy
-Tebow gets picked (slim, but fun to root)
-at least one, hopefully 2 TE go
You guys are all on the right track.
But don’t jump the gun. We’ve got plenty of time. Look, we’re gone through two positions, WR and OT.
Now, I want you to name every player at this position you are CERTAIN will be gone by 27. Don’t stretch it. Be conservative.
On WR, I have one — Dez Bryant. Maybe a 2nd, more than likely Benn, but I’m going to be conservative in my estimates.
With OT, I’m going to say five. I think every one of the Okung, Davis, Campbell, Bulaga, and Williams bunch goes. There’s just too much demand for this postion and too little supply.
So we’re up to 6.
I’ll see if we can put a box somewhere on the page with a running total. We’ll up the number after every position review.
Players gone by 27
WR – Dez Bryant to either Denver or Miami
Golden Tate – to Baltimore. They have to get Flacco some weapons
OT – Okung – Combine solidifies top 5 I think he goes to Washington
Campbell – Goes to Al Davis
Bulaga – Goes to Buffalo – Davis could go here as well
Davis – Goes to San Fran
Trent Williams – Seattle
I think that is an assumption...
that Benn isn’t the second WR taken.
I also think that if Seattle would be paying a high toll on Williams who projects to be a RT in the pros.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 3, 2010 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
I agree
I have Benn over Tate, he’s easier to project as a true #1 WR. As much as I like Tate, I get the sense he’d do better as a #2 or #3.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
Tex 4 Colt
Can never go wrong throwing first-round currency at the most important position in all of sports… Why not Staubach’s protege who could be worth a lot more than the 27th pick in a couple of years if Romo pans out as a championship QB? If he doesn’t Colt will be ready after the strike with Garrett at the helm
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 10:44 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Yo, Tex, lay off the hooch
it’s killing your short term memory.
Dallas drafted Stephen McGee last year. They like him a lot.
Tex doesn't...
See 75% of the game’s best signal callers… All taken with high draft currency
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 10:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Drafted in the 6th...
Traded for a 4th, Tex’s point precisely
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 10:58 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
So you want Dallas to use a 1st to trade,
for a 1st?
Dallas should draft a QB in every round except the 1st
and then trade them for early draft choices next year. Yeah that’s the ticket, they can trade a #5 pick this year for a #3 next year for instance. Tex you’re f—-ing genius.
Plus
The trade value for quarterbacks, be it McGee or McCoy, is exponentially higher than draft picks or other positions
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 10:56 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
So you want Dallas to carry FOUR QBs this year?
Cause McGee isn’t ready. No rookie will be and they’re not cutting McGee or Kitna.
Competition
The winner of McCoy/ McGee sticks. Draft a QB every year, rotating first-round currency and 5th round fliers, because it’s the most important position in all of sports
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 11:22 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
You're being sucked in....
Come on raf, you know you’re falling down the rabbit hole into wonderland when you talk to this guy. Unless you’re on LSD I don’t think it makes sense.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 1, 2010 11:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Consider yourself...
Sucked, to quote the beleaguered Mrs. Doubtfire who ran off Emmitt Smith for Troy Hambrick and Richie Anderson
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 11:42 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
A broken clock is
right twice a day.
a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while
you would expect that Tex would randomly get something right someday.
but somehow he never does
Why draft him at 27 when you could get him much later
considering no one in their right mind thinks he will be a first round pick.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
QB is the dumbest use of a 1st rd pick
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
Whats the over/under on a fanpost advising us Orlando Pace was cut
by the Bears?
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
in minutes or seconds? LOL
Orlando was a stud once upon a time, but I’d rather have Flozell at this point in time. I saw Pace get whipped in a couple of games last year and I didn’t see the Bears much. I think the guy has had too many physical breakdowns the past couple of seasons. Serious ones, far more serious than anything Flo had in that same time.
I don't want him either. Too much tread gone from the tires.
I just crack up cuz every player released gets a fanpost as to viability for the Pokes.
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
PS
Romo is 30, an age where Brady and Aikman had already won three Super Bowls and began their decline. mcGee is not the answer
by Montecito Tex on Mar 1, 2010 10:48 PM CST via mobile reply actions
whhh, not so sure about the whole setting, Warner, used to bag groceries right?,
so TR has at least 3-4 years before I start doubting him to begin with and by that time McGee will be ready. so the qb possition is set for few years, we better start worry bout OL, DL and DB’s
Aikman
He also played full time since day one and took quite a few hits. Plus Brady just had the best season of his career in 2007, and a pretty damn good one last year. He’s still an elite player, and with the rules protecting quarterbacks now I think you’re overreacting.
What Has McGee Done
his senior year he was second string at A$M.He did nothing last year.What do you see in him that makes you think he can be a starter for us?
McCoy was the winingest QB in college history but the jury is still out on him.Maybe if he is there in rd. 3.McGee never won anything in college and was basicly a running QB.
That guy Skelton looked pretty good we could probably get him real late and if McGee could beat him out ok.
I would rather fill a position of need with a quality player than go for some pie in the sky wide reciever like Tate.He is a workout warrior that looked good running 40s but is not so great in pads. let’s get a player that will help get to the Super Bowl.
by TCB Orange Dino on Mar 2, 2010 12:00 AM CST reply actions
Raf's Scenarios
Liked the piece, and your work in general….that being said I have some quibbles:
4. Washington — Chris Samuels’ career is likely over after a neck injury.
Yeah Washington could go OT, that being said, they aren’t particularly well ran…and they don’t seem very high on Jason Campbell. They could go Clausen or Bradford.
5. Kansas City — The Chiefs need one. Brandon Albert had a lot of trouble playing LT last year.
Yeah they’re going Davis.
6. Seattle — Walter Jones has reached the end of the line.
They also just hired a new coach who probably wants his own Quarterback to start grooming in order to be the starter. They have two picks, and might go to Everson Griffen or another top end defensive player and since Okung and Davis are likely off the board, picking a player like Trent Williams might be a reach at 14th or so, and Carroll being the defensive guy he is might want a top tier defensive player, especially one from USC.
8. Oakland — The Raiders need a tackle and Campbell’s workouts have many saying the size-speed loving Al Davis will covet him.
Pierre-Paul is a massive speed rusher and just as big of a physical freak that Campbell is, if not more freakish, not to mention his football skills (besides rushing the pass) are awful which is another Al Davis favorite.
9. Buffalo — the Bills traded LT Jason Peters to the Eagles last year and were stunned when RT Brad Butler retired last week. The Bills will want at least one and maybe two OTs this year.
Same thing with Seattle and Washington, they could go QB too.
13. San Francisco — the Niners need a right tackle to pair with Joe Staley.
Yeah, but could also go Iupati or a QB if Seattle and Washington don’t go QB. CJ Spiller is also a possibility, Gore doesn’t have too much time left and Spiller’s the man.
They might also trade down for a player like Pouncey and Iupati since they need quite a bit of help on the interior parts of the line.
14. Seattle — the Seahawks get another bite at the apple, and if they go quarterback or another position at six, they’re not likely to pass on OT twice, provided one is available.
17,. San Francisco — see Seattle at pick 14.
I already addressed these teams, but Seattle also needs a running back too.
18. Pittsburgh — the Steelers line has been a mess. They’re often paired with Mike Iuputi, but they could use help along their line.
Yeah, Iupati Bulaga and others are common picks that they’re associated with. Maybe they’ll take Campbell, or someone if those two players are gone, but I can see them trading down to a team that wants to draft one of the defensive players in this deep draft.
Overall though, I see your point, and I agree to an extent, I just think that there’s other elite draft talents that these teams could use. You don’t lose ten games and not have problems just about everywhere. Elite talents like Derrek Morgan, Sergio Kindle, Everson Griffen, Brian Price, and Joe Haden to a lesser extent could fill needs for lots of teams, and I can see some of these teams on your tackle list move down in the draft and address more needs if they can’t get one of the top four OTs.
At first I was nervous that we wouldn't be able to get adequate OL help if we didn't pick one with our 1st
But the more I see and read, there are some pretty good players to be had later in the draft that could be ready to play in the NFL sooner than later. With Free, we’re in the position where we don’t need to reach based on need. This could shape up to be a damn good draft for us, if Jerry doesn’t get too antsy.
Epic Fail since 1985
Also...
Regarding Campbell KC Joyner, a bright guy, said after reviewing film that he rated him as the best tackle in the draft.
I don't see us going DT, CB, TE, RB, or QB in the 1st. (Unless we have a trade)
That said, I do believe WR & LB in the 1st is somewhat unlikely. Which leaves DE, OL, & S. With a run on OL, which is apt to happen, leaves DE, and S. Of course, how many safeties actually have a grade of 27 or better? 2, maybe 3. DE or Safety could be our 1st round pick. If this goes down, I can almost guarantee we’ll take an O-lineman in the 2nd.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
McNeill is starting to have back problems
and once that starts its all downhill.
Campbell- I heard randy cross on Sirius talking about how bad his game tapes were.
My Pet Cat Veldheer could be had in either the second or third and since we all know we will keep Flo for at least one more year that gives us time to train him up.
+1 on Veldheer
That guy is huge and has good feet…maybe a little bit of a project but I don’t think a “ready day one” left tackle will be anywhere near available for us to sniff. I read his combine numbers were great across the board too.
That said, I’m salivating at getting Earl Thomas and Jared Odrick. I would LOVE to take the next step and become an elite defense instead of a pretty good one.
I have noticed a new resurgence in Cowboy hating in 2007, which can only mean one thing- We're back.
impossible to get both
We’ll be extremely lucky to get either one. Both are top 20 talent.
In Romo we Trust
I'd heard Odrick might slip from some off the field stuff
But I don’t know the particulars…
I have noticed a new resurgence in Cowboy hating in 2007, which can only mean one thing- We're back.
He got into a bar fight
Assault, but that was at least a year ago.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
Safety
I wouldn’t mind if we did take a safety, as long as it isn’t a reach with him. I just hope that the Giants don’t get Rolando Mcclain. We should all pray that the Giants don’t get Rolando Mcclain. Heaven knows I don’t want to see him 2 times a year.
I think the 6th first round OT will be Charles Brown
But he doesnt seem to fit the mold of a Dallas lineman, although he did put on some weight prior to the combine. He just doesnt strike me as the mauler they usually look for.
My mock has:
Okung to Washington
(I dont have Oakland taking a OT at 8th, but they could take Baluga or Campbell)
Baluga to Buffalo
Davis to 49ers (he’s most likely a RT) at 13
Campbell to Seattle at 14
Trent Williams to Green Bay
I think Arizona could take a long look at Charles Brown if Gresham is gone at #26.
And in this scenario (Thomas was also gone) I see Pouncey in Dallas.
Wow Brown has much better feet than Ducasse.
Brown will be a beast in the ZBS.
The guys I have most likely to fall
Odrick, Earl Thomas, Pouncey (not really a fall as much as BPA)
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
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