Jerry Jones Kremlinology: What Will the Cowboys Do in Free Agency?
In the fanshot just below this post, Jerry Jones is quoted on free agency, of which he says:
"We will be active, but I'm anticipating some value and opportunity that is not necessarily there right now - can be there but if the process hasn't let us get there," Jones said. "Now, if that doesn't show, that'll limit what I do."
What does this mean? I'll make my attempt at parsing Jerry's masterfully, and intentionally opaque terms on the flip.
Let's take his remark clause by clause. He says the Cowboys will be active. That won't surprise anybody, but the question is how active? My guess is, not that much. Dallas' roster does require some new blood. It is, however, quite talented. We're all familiar with the areas of greatest need -- a free safety, offensive line depth, a rotation nose tackle and possibly a receiver. These needs can be met through free agency and/or through the draft.
Which brings us to clause two -- "I'm anticipating some value and opportunity that is not necessarily there right now."
What value is Jerry referring to? Are there veteran players who his staff anticipates will be cut, who have not yet been put on the market? Possibly. Are there areas of the market where the competition is too fierce, where the Cowboys want some competitors to leave the field before they enter?
Let's take this possibility a bit farther. A story surfaced last week that the Cowboys had made an inquiry about Colts restricted free agent safety Antoine Bethea. The same story mentioned that other teams, the Eagles, Redskins, Dolphins and Jets, were also interested in him.
Now, let's assume for the sake of argument that Dallas has watched tape on Bethea and considers him a surer bet than any free safety they could draw at the 27th pick and feels he's worth a move. (I'm writing hypothetically here.) Dallas might want to test the Colts and see if they will negotiate. and take something less than the 1st rounder the tender requires.
Dallas' bargaining position improves if fewer competitors remain for their target. And what have we seen in the first week of free agency? Safety has been one of, perhaps the most bartered position out there. Consider:
- The Giants immediately signed Antrel Rolle
- The Jets traded Kerry Rhodes to the Cardinals
- Ryan Clark visited Miami, then re-signed with Pittsburgh.
- The Eagles signed CB Marlin Jackson, with the idea of moving him to safety.
- Those same Dolphins considered signing Rolle, just missed on Clark, have met and nixed the idea of signing Bethea to an offer sheet, and are now considering Rams FA O.J. Atogwe.
Lots of teams want safeties. This suggests that the better rookie safety prospects, the Eric Berrys, the Earl Thomases, the Taylor Mays, may not last. But the activity means that if the Cowboys move for either Atogwe or try to haggle for a Bethea, they will likely have challengers, something the team would want to avoid, to prevent having its bargaining position corrupted, inflated and possibly trumped.
This may be the opportunity "not there right now" that Jerry speaks of. And this same scenario may also apply to offensive line, to a tagged player like a Jared Gaither. Too many competitors may still lurk, and the holding teams may still be standing firm on their bargaining positions, or showing no willingness to bargain at all.
So who might be on Dallas' radar? Who could come next week and not create too much of a fuss?
That's not as clear as it might seem. The unrestricted ranks lack sizzle. On the restricted front, I can't see the Cowboys forfeiting either their 1st or 2nd round picks. Nonetheless, some intriguing RFAs exist:
Atogwe -- The Rams maintain the right of first refusal, meaning they can match any offer he receives, but would get no compensation if they don't match. The safety market has cooled considerably, as several teams have filled their safety needs, but potential competitors remain. I have limited data on Atogwe. He has some ball skills, but he's also 28. He looks like he could be a short-term upgrade, in the Thomas Everett mold, but I don't see him as the long-term answer. Of course, the Cowboys may not be looking for a long-term answer, but a 2010 one.
Chris Chester -- Bill Parcells was very interested in the Oklahoma C/G when he came out in '06. The Ravens picked Chester in the 2nd round and he's become their right guard, starting 24 of Baltimore's 32 games the last two seasons. He's tendered at a 3rd rounder, and could represent a better bet than any rookie Dallas might claim there. He's 6'3", 315 lbs., which fits the Cowboys size profiles. The Ravens run the same power game Dallas likes. I don't know if Baltimore would take less than a 3rd, but the Ravens want to obtain more picks. The Anquan Boldin deal means they have just two picks in the first four rounds.
A player like Chester would make sense if the team feels he represents an upgrade over Kyle Kosier and has a ceiling higher than Robert Brewster's. He would also give Dallas cover at center.
Gaither? -- He's an offer sheet darling among some fans, but the reactions to him are mixed. His own fan base is torn on the prospect of losing him. Roughly half want to flip him for a 1st rounder, while the other half fears letting go. Nobody considers Ozzie Newsome a fool, so you have to wonder why the Ravens tendered him at at level which invites inquiries? Baltimore loves Michael Oher, but then, young LTs don't grow on trees. The BIlls got a 1st and a 4th for Jason Peters last offseason.
I'm sure Dallas has reviewed Flozell Adams', Doug Free's, Marc Colombo's and Gaithers tapes extensively I have no idea what path that tape study suggests.
There's also no clear idea if any of the other possible suitors in a Baltimore Sun piece, the 49ers, Seahawks and Colts, would make a bid? The Ravens would jump for joy if the Seahawks or 'Niners courted Gaither. Both of those teams have two 1st round picks and the lesser of their picks fall in the mid-teens. They would likely flip Gaither for a pick in this range.
This may be more of that invisible opportunity Jerry refers to. The Cowboys have worked hard to keep their cards pressed to their vest this week, while gathering as much data as they can. They may feel it's time to put those cards on the table. We should know soon.
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Comments
Good stuff.
Since apparently the Steelers resigned Bryant, based solely on the comments I read from following the link, might the Dolphins interest in Bethea be rekindled?
"We'll see." --Bill Parcells
doubt it
they have the 12th pick;
dallas has the 27th.
I doubt Miami is going to forfeit a pick that high.
Dallas, OTOH, is also doubtful, but more likely.
by Rafael Vela on Mar 11, 2010 11:01 AM CST up reply actions
Another great article Raf
I think JJ is waiting to see who else gets released and he might even wait ’till draft day to see who gets picked and start dealing and wheeling.
+1
echoing the previous, my guess is that Jerry is (wisely) feeling with winds to see how other teams are wrestling with the same dilemma he currently is- namely, what veterans would you consider parting with in order to take the hit on an uncapped year.
Using Washington as an example, they are desperate for a starting LT, so there choices are to either plump for who is currently on the market (Hicks, whom they signed), delve into the RFA market (Gaither), or hold out & see if a team like Dallas parts ways with Flo. Jerry is probably gambling that there are players that are currently still under contract, but whome are likely to be released and who would be superior to the alternatives currently available.
Its’s a bit of a risky strategy, but I think its the correct one given the dilemma he himself faces WRT Flo, Barber, & Hamlin.
just a question
why we always need some interpeter to understand jerry?
man, he just can’t talk like a normal person, there’s something between the lines…always
No kidding
The guy just can’t speak in complete, intelligible sentences.
... or chooses not to in such cases :)
Jerry’s no fool. He says what he wants to say, when he wants to say it. Why should he tip his hand just because it’s a reporter’s job to ask?
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Whats the fun in that. Tipping your hand or creating doubt in others. Which is the best route.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Not tipping your hand.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
Needing an interpeter is a good thing; I think?
If we, the peaple who have studied his words and actions for years don’t know what he’s saying or what he’s going to do; doesn’t that give him an edge over more predictable management teams? That is unless we are tallking about Wide Recievers!
Great Post as always.....
I believe we the fans hype the offseason and deep down know that we may make 1 move prior to the draft….. This is what makes the offseason so great… The ability to dream up a million different scenarios…. You and the BTB writers provide great insight and occasionally indulge in us in our fantasies….
I would like Jerry to spend some money and fill a secondary void like back up center with a UFA or RFA so we can focus on other needs and projects in this upcoming draft…
I believe that we have the opportunity to take some chances this draft because we have such a strong team….
by michael83emery on Mar 11, 2010 11:34 AM CST reply actions
Any players with Wade ties
floating around? I had never heard of Gerald Sensabaugh until he was signed and delivered. I expect this offseason’s signings to be similar, unknown unheralded player – like Sensabaugh, Kosier
Even Igor had more fan fare than those two
by AustonianAggie on Mar 11, 2010 11:43 AM CST reply actions
It's interesting to me how..
…the CBA situation is playing into the offseason activity.
This draft is stacked due to the anticipation of a roookie wage scale, and RFAs that would normally be UFAs are going to cost premium picks to sign.
Consequently, assuming the CBA is ironed out, next year’s UFA class should be outstanding.
What I gather from that….why give up picks in a deep draft for players you can get for no picks next year?
I get the idea of trying to get better and win it all now, but I think the prudent move is to keep the picks for this year, and be more active with UFA next year.
if there is a 2011…
Dallas needs to sign Miles soon!
by AustonianAggie on Mar 11, 2010 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
Outstanding insight...
…if I’m understanding your point about next year. Let me work this out:
1. Because this is an uncapped year teams don’t want to sign long term deals because it would cost them more money than usual b/c they can’t tell agents/players they have to worry about the cap.
2. So, teams are offering RFA one year deals now and next year these players will be UFA meaning no contractual ties to teams next year.
3. So, essentially we are seeing a bottleneck in talent for existing players this year and next year more quality players will be available b/c they weren’t locked up in long term contraxts.
4. So, teams are controlling their budgets b/c next year they will get more quality veterans, will have 2 years of players to choose from and will need lots of money for long term deals and draft picks.
Do I have this right? If so, that would explain why teams aren’t spending much and being prudent with their money. No wonder Dan Synder hasn’t opened his checkbook like normal….
It's more like the players just aren't
there to give the money to. The qualifier to become an UFA went from four years to six with the uncapped year. Many of these guys that are tied to draft picks normally wouldn’t be. Couple that with a strong draft and it’s a double killer to give up picks this year IMO.
It's more like the players just aren't
there to give the money to. The qualifier to become an UFA went from four years to six with the uncapped year. Many of these guys that are tied to draft picks normally wouldn’t be. Couple that with a strong draft and it’s a double killer to give up picks this year IMO.
I have no reason to believe that Jerry will churn the top of the roster.
Flozell played at a level high enough last season to make the Cowboys contenders. His ability may nosedive during the upcoming season, but I doubt that Jerry makes a big move and releases him during the uncapped offseason. This team is too thin on the offensive line and too close to a championship to gamble like that.
Kosier has a chance to lose his starting spot, but in order for that to happen, many things must fall into place (e.g., Brewster showing he is playing as well as Kosier, or Iupati dropping to 27, and dominating during training camp). Most of those scenarios are unlikely.
Colombo is the only starter to have a reserve capable of supplanting him (Free), but Marc brings a lot of intangibles to the line such as nastiness and leadership that may keep him entrenched. Even if Doug Free does start ahead of Colombo this season, I would be surprised to see Jerry just give away a tackle on a team lacking of offensive line talent.
If Dallas gets very lucky and drafts Earl Thomas, I doubt Jerry would relelase or trade Ken Hamlin and essentially give the starting free safety spot to a rookie. Same goes for any wide receiver or defensive lineman.
Jerry is looking to upgrade talent, but I do not see anyone in the draft that could start immediately for the Cowboys without having a legitimate back-up. Same goes for the players left in free agency that are within the grasp of the Cowboys. For that reason I see much less action than expected leading up to the draft.
+1 ... great post
Raf’s “cover at center” comment is the type of move I expect to see this off-season. We’ve got the pieces in place to contend now; it’s risky to bank on immediate upgrades in the draft; this team is capable of making a SB run without any additions.
Dunk, you just stole my line! (I’m still sad about my pet cat Folk leaving on such short notice … :)
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Me too
WAIT A MINUTE!! You put the DalaiLuke Pet Cat Curse on him??? Holy crap. You just couldn’t stop yourself. You just had to go and kill his career, didn’t you? Nice. Just freakin nice.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
And he had such promise ...
(hangin’ my head in shame)
… and I know, I know, I’m not allowed to even think about Oak Trees, Maple Trees or any other kind of trees :)
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
I'm gettin' all warm and fuzzy over here
No, wait … sorry… actually I think it’s time for my morning dump :)
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.

BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 11, 2010 9:24 PM CST up reply actions
I wanna join next year's BTB FF League ... just to contend for your title :)
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Just draft Forte like Aaron did
and you’ll be right there in the consolation bracket
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 12, 2010 5:54 AM CST up reply actions
Don't forget Cutler!
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by Aaron Novinger on Mar 12, 2010 6:37 AM CST up reply actions
Haha yep
Investing in the Chicago Bears offense, not the best idea you’ve had.
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 12, 2010 7:05 AM CST up reply actions
I had Brees, Boldin (08 stud), Chris Johnson and Witten and STILL missed my playoffs... go f'n figure
(yea, I’m still not over it … maybe I should see Tex for some counseling :)
ps – also had our very own Roy Williams and the Cowboys D (too little too late from that D)
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Well I had the 6th highest scoring team
but won two more games than anyone else in the BTB league. Try and match that luck.
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 12, 2010 6:44 PM CST up reply actions
I see it differently.
Jerry Jones has repeatedly suggested that OLine is the priority this offseason;
While Jerry Jones said the club won’t focus on one position in this draft, he also said the Cowboys need to make "obvious improvement" in the offensive line.
They’ve also previously admitted to discussing possibly releasing Flozell Adams this offseason.
And then Stephen Jones gave a not to cryptic statement a few days ago said;
"I think (releasing veterans) could ultimately happen," Cowboys vice president Stephen Jones told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "It hasn’t been decided, but it could ultimately fall that way. I think we’ve got a lot of young players, if given the opportunity, would probably play better than most people think."
The Oline problems have been a major component of our failures the last four years. The played poor in the Seattle playoff loss in 06. They played a real bad second half against the NYG in 07. In 08 they got Romo crushed in Arizona and had some real bad performances later in the year. And finally in 09 our exit from the playoffs was mostly due to our OLine being completely destroyed.
That’s why Jerry is saying we need obvious improvement because we’ve rolled with pretty much the exact same crew for 4 years and the results are always the same. Flozell is first on the list; he’s old, he’s average, he’s overpaid. He’s due a bonus in June. I think they’ll be trying real hard to land some OLine help in the Draft or even Free Agency and if they do Flow is gone.
It's kind of cool.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
Luke, Luke, Luke ... you really need to aim a little higher
(this is your Dalai speaking :)
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Ratware,
Flow’s played the same way under two different Oline coaches who are both considered very good (Houck and Sparano). Davis was inconsistent in Arizona and wasn’t quick enough for Tackle and had mental lapses. That’s been improved because he moved inside to Guard were he’s better suited but occasionally the same problems still arise. Kosier’s size sometimes allows guys to simply out muscle him. It was the same in Detroit and the same here under both Houck and Sparano. Colombo’s ability is simply limited because of several serious injuries to his legs and no coach can change that.
To me, a coaching change is not the solution. These guys are all old vets. They are what they are. If we’re unhappy with there performance we should bring in new players.
mezmerizing!
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 12, 2010 6:38 AM CST up reply actions
Thank you.
I’d like to think that my comment was so fantastic, so mind blindingly awesome with insight, truth and coherence, that it was literally creating a dimensional tear in the universe that could have seriously spiraled out of control if I didn’t stop when I did.
Dunkman has already found himself struggling to separate matter from space just from reading it!!
lol!
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 12, 2010 8:39 AM CST up reply actions
I feel like after reading your post....
I have all the answers to Lost.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 12, 2010 8:45 AM CST up reply actions

BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 12, 2010 10:54 AM CST up reply actions
Disagree on Hamlin
The team actually feels that Ball has ability at FS, I could definitely see Hamlin cut when they draft as FS early. I don’t think it will be Thomas thogugh, he’ll be long gone. I imagine Nate Allen is the player they envision being available at #27.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 11, 2010 8:34 PM CST up reply actions
there is a rumour, that cowboys are interestring in Atogwe...
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
it's a David Moore chat item from yesterday
don’t have the link, but DMN’s wack blog summarized that point among others today
2009 BTB Part Deux Fantasy League Champion. 'Kill Everybody 13-2'. KDP knows football.
I hope we are interested in Atogwe
I really think he would be a huge upgrade over Hamlin.
Great stuff Raf
reading Jerry is like asling a blind man to interpret Egyptian hieroglyphics, but this is about as reasonable as I’ve seen anyway get there. The Chris Chester idea is an excellent one. Just the kind of move that no one in the media is even talking about, but one that could make a lot of sense for both teams.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
did someone mention hieroglyphics?
this is about as reasonable as I’ve seen anyway get there.
you are right about one thing, Raf’s stuff is superb … leaving BTB in a class of it’s own.
Doomsday returns... Wade Phillips style.
Anyone who can translate the Jerrian language..
has my utmost respect. Well done Raf.
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
There are so many conflicting opinions on Gaither
TO me its simple: can he play as well as the Hotel or close? If so go for him. If not, pass.
If we could get Chester that would be a guy that is about the same strength and size of Gurode who can play center and guard. We could put kosier as the backup and get rid of the proctologist!!!!!
I so confused!
So, we’re talking possible free agent pick ups here right? These are players who come in and improve us right away, as aposed to the draft were the possibility that may happen with this Cowboys team is limited to a very few players; who will most go before we get a sniff at the 27th pick.
Our team is set, but it’s Flozell and Columbo at tackle that really are making peaple, myself included, anxious for a much publisized name to drop into the mix. Both these guys, for the most part, were quality starters last year; but both showed obvious signs of wear and the point at were they are more of a liability than an asset is fast approaching, if it isn’t already here. Peaple talk about Doug Free as Flo’s replacement. I don’t know maybe he is? But I know he prooved to be, at least in my eyes, an up grade over Columbo and I think this is were he should stay. Robert Brewster @ 6’ 4" is a guard, and McQuistin, despite early praise from Parcells is way to slow to ever start at tackle. So, is there a LT worth giving up the draft for in Free Agency? Nope! That leave the Draft, and we are in no position at this time to get one of the top 3 who might come in and really be an up grade to Free, which in my eyes, is what we need to do. Should we tade away the best share of our draft to get in position? I for one am not completely aposed to the idea; as long as they do there home work and get the real deal.
As far as Safety, I think it might make since to sign Sensabaughfor a 3-4 year deal and continue to browse for the eventual replasement for Hamilin, Ball may be that guy I don’t know, he has the speed and he will hit, just waiting for it all to click, if not, then guys like him are a dime a dozen.
Now, an upgrade over Carpenter may be a little easier to find; but then again maybe it won’t. I am against the idea of picking up guys in free agency, just to say we are players in the game. The cards we hold now are pretty good.
plz excuse the poor spelling, I down loaded a new version of AOL for my wife and I lost a the google or yahoo toolbar it was on.
+1
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by Aaron Novinger on Mar 11, 2010 9:25 PM CST up reply actions
I was sort of hoping he'd be
“Good Knees” by now, but you can’t have everything…
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Yeah, time doesn't always heal old wounds.
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by Aaron Novinger on Mar 12, 2010 6:39 AM CST up reply actions
Gaither is the RFA they should have an eye on.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
Loved both Oklahoma guards in that draft
Suffice it to say, I would be in favor of trading for Chester. Perhaps in a draft year supposedly rich in offensive linemen, perhaps the position represents the “moneyball” value on the NFL trade landscape. Though seeing how much AZ got for Boldin, it may be wide receivers. Unfortunately Jerry did not read the tea leaves very well on that front. But that’s another topic.
I wouldn't mind trading for Chester
and trading Kosier to a ZBS team… Like Washington?
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Depends on what the values are on the trades.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 11, 2010 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
What about Richie Incognito?
The Bills now hold his rights but he is a Restricted Free Agent with no tender. Why not go after him? He’s only 26, at is like 6’3 325 lbs. From all the Rams fans I’ve talked to they all say he is a very solid player, just a hothead. In my opinion it can’t hurt. Considering that we wouldn’t lose any compensation like we would if we signed Chester.
Incognito seems like he would fit right in, be an upgrade over Kosier, and get us younger at the Guard position.
I think he's much wrose than a hothead
H’es something of a nutball. I’d prefer not to take on guys who disrupt team cohesion.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Within this locker room, though, he may fell the need to remain Incognito.
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 12, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions

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