Cowboys' Draft '10: Mock 4.0
by Rafael Vela on Mar 13, 2010 1:17 AM CST
81 comments
You can't always get what you want.
Will the Cowboys get what they need?
I've long posted that the team will not fill every need. That's just the nature of drafting. Dallas has six picks heading to April. List the 6th and 7th rounders as long shots. Sure, the Cowboys have been surprisingly good in these later rounds lately, but can you count on the players taken here to be quality?
Realistically, Dallas has four solid shots, and four hits often comprises a solid draft. Get four good players three or four years running and you've built the core of a good team. Which raises another issue. Dallas has more than four needs. Two offensive linemen, a young receiver to groom, a free safety, a backup nose tackle, perhaps another inside linebacker and another young CB would be nice. That's seven players.
Count on at least one and maybe two of your "priority" needs going unmet. The Cowboys can't predict who will be on the board when they pick. They can only be prepared to maximize value and improve odds that they get four good players. Period. No matter the position.
So, what will they do if the top receiver, offensive linemen and safeties are off the board? Perhaps something like this:
Round 1: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
Cornerbacks are to the current, pass-happy NFL what starting pitchers are to major league baseball. You can never have enough of them. This year's crop seems to lack an elite upper tier, but it nonetheless contains depth. I would not be shocked to see the Cowboys ponder an inside linebacker candidate, if a top one is available (more on this next weekend) but Wilson seems like a good value at 27. He would represent a hedge against a regression by Orlando Scandrick, or an injury by the increasingly fragile Terence Newman, who turns 32 the first week of the season.
Round 2: Carlton Mitchell, WR, South Florida
I'm getting the impression 2010 is shaping up to be a replay of 2008. I see lots of offensive tackles going high, with some of them overdrafted. Conversely, I see the receivers dropping as they did in '08, when none went in round one but ten flew off the board in the 2nd round.
Once Dez Bryant goes, and I still see him going in the top 12-16 picks or so, regardless of the current whispers about him, a drop off occurs. If a similar run starts early in the 2nd, Dallas' pick at 59 could see the team finally land a quality wideout in this part of the draft, after missing on or passing on receivers here in recent years.
Mitchell is a rough piece of clay, but he's a big, fast, talented one, who could become the next receiver work of art to emerge from sculptor Ray Sherman's studio.
Round 3: Ed Wang, OT, Virginia Tech
Long OT prospect who needs to add bulk, but who can protect his quarterback.
Round 4: Kevin Matthews, C, Texas A&M
Because Cory Proctor isn't forever. Matthews has the pedigree: Hall of Fame C Bruce Matthews is his dad.
No safety, you say? No nose tackle? That's what free agency is for.
Monday: Position breakdowns resume with a look at cornerbacks.
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Kevin Matthews in the 4th?
Holy Reach, Batman
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
I won't say it...
Okay, I will. I spent the entirety of the conversation of the last post talking about Kyle Wilson, and here he is. I would still absolutely love that pick at 27.
I do agree with hiafex though, I’d rather see a safety in the second.
Are you telling us Graham beat Wang
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 13, 2010 2:10 AM CST up reply actions
This draft would be pretty good at the top
assuming the Cowboys tackle the safety position in free agency. However, for the third and fourth rounds I would rather look at different O-line prospects. In the third I would rather pick up an OT like Jason Fox and then in the fourth go after an OG like Marshall Newhouse. I know some people will say that Fox won’t be there in the third, but consider that in 2008, in which there was a run on tackles in the first round, the next OT wasn’t taken until the second pick of the third round. I think a run on tackles wouldn’t actually be the worst thing to happen to the Cowboys and allow them to get a top-ten positional guy in the third round.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
As long,
as we draft Kyle Williams (WR Arizona State) with our 7th or even 6th round pick
i’m fine with whoever else we get this year
by howboutdemcowboyz on Mar 13, 2010 4:13 AM CST reply actions
I would love him in those later rounds.
I think he looks like he could add some real explosiveness immediately.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 13, 2010 2:24 PM CST up reply actions
men, you're still on the bussiness?
i need for some dealers to be fooled give Mcnulty my greetings if you see him
and agree, this is my less favourite mock
I gotta say
Drafting a player for his pedigree is what got us Bobby Carpenter. These aren’t racehorses.
But I will not be unhappy with the Kyle Wilson pick. I feel we are teetering on the edge of the line where drafting a first-round CB makes perfect sense. It is something we did with Anthony Spencer at OLB, and we can agree that has worked out fine. Unfortunately, that line is also way behind us when we look at ILB, safety, and OL. So if there is almost equivalent value on the board, I would look strongly at one of those three positions.
Movie Reference
by accidental innuendo on Mar 13, 2010 5:46 AM CST reply actions
I Understand collecting DB's but in the first?
TNew came out of College at 25, not as much tread on the tires as you would think.
Like the First Two Rounds
In particular. Wilson looks like a good value to me, although I would be tempted just as much by Sean Weatherspoon, who I think was also hypothetically be available. Wang also sounds like a decent choice as well. Dallas has been able to fill several skill positions like QB, WR and OT without having to spend high draft picks. If they can put another raw but talented player in the pipeline and have him pop out three years later ready to start, I’m all for it.
Nice also to see Ray Sherman getting some credit. We have some good guys like Austin, Hurd and Ogletree, but don’t know if they’d be where they are today without his help.
In a worst case scenario this ain't bad
If it goes down like this we better hope Brewster and Mike Hamlin are ready, or a trade happens. Speaking of trades, something should be breaking loose pretty soon on the trade or FA front.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
I like how you're doing these
since I’m a fantasy sports nut … I compare it to that a little. Mock a draft with a worst case scenario (all the guys you want are gone) and prepare that way. I like it.
Kyle Wilson makes sense in this mock
Considering all other targeted prospects are gone, but give me a FS in round 2 and wait on WR. The Cowboys seem high on Carlton Mitchell, but I’d much rather have Marcus Easley in the 4th rd. I think Easley has the chance to be a really good WR. 6-3 210lbs, ran a 4.46 in the 40yd dash and just looks natural catching the ball- especially when adjusting to deep passes. He’s a good blocker(watch out Roy lol), and can be active on game day because from what I hear he’ll be great on punt/kick off coverage groups. That’s how Miles Austin and Sam Hurd played their 1st yr. And I think I’d rather than ANY OTHER OT prospect other than Ed Wang.
Your worst mock yet
I’d like to know who you thought was still available, cause this mock represents meeting no need whatsoever.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
Somebody Was Sleeping in Class Yesterday
And failed Raf’s Mock 4.0 Prep Quiz. He told us then who would be available for this mock.
Oh and by the way, as Raf, me and many others have pointed out, drafting for need is road to disaster.
Maybe you can do better on the mid-term exam.
It's like a teacher that espouses revisionist history
No founding fathers, we weren’t founded on Judeo-Christian principles, etc.
Just ‘cause he set the rules, doesn’t mean I have to buy them.
I’ll give Raf this: Wilson is the 2nd rated CB and we all would love a shiny new WR.
However, the reality is that CB & WR are positions that can wait for another year. If this were 2011, and T-New and RW continue their respective slides into mediocrity, I’d be giddy. But with “Guaranteed” Roy and T-New still playing pretty good (if not well above average) and Scandrick still showing promise this is not a good draft.
Grabbing a good young PROVEN RFA young LT with that first pick is far better. So is taking the BPA at DL, OLB, or even ILB (which he dismisses). All-in-all, this would be a really disappointing crop, though I do love Mathews in the 4th.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
Please avoid statements like your first one
because this country was not founded on Judeo-Christian principles. It was founded on the belief that anyone can believe whatever crazy stuff they want.
by DoomsdayD75 on Mar 13, 2010 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
Hahaha you give me a good chuckle Fighter,
You just launch straight into your opinions and criticisms obviously without reading or understanding what is going on or you’re suffering from a memory condition like Alzheimer’s and can’t remember what you just read.
This mock is based around the hypothetical picks Rafael gave in his last post. Which in a revealing clue Raf titled Mock 4.0 Prep Quiz. It was a hypothetical (there’s that word again!) exercise to get us to think about what we’d do if all the obvious picks we’ve debated were gone but we had to pick anyway. You should know this because, well, you commented in that very thread. And you made a pick; Clausen. Of course the problem was Clausen was already picked at 6 but for you to know that you would have had to actually read the post before commenting (see paragraph one).
Anyway, it was funny so good work.
And please, please, please expand on your theory that this hypothetical draft exercise is somehow like revisionist history.
+1
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 13, 2010 3:43 PM CST up reply actions
+2
please expand on your theory that this hypothetical draft exercise is somehow like revisionist history.
On second thought, please don’t.
Well, since you asked
Let’s start with no trades allowed. Further, let’s assume that the draft will take every player “scheduled” to hit the boys at a position of need.
The whole premise is flawed.
2 years ago it was “no way Mendenhall or Jones fall” along with all CBs of worth. We get both Jones & Jenkins.
3 years ago, no way Quinn drops…that allows us to get the Browns ’08 1st Rounder.
4 years ago, there is no way we get Spears. Heck, most had Ware & Merriman gone by #11.
5 years ago, all the RBs were supposed to be gone. Heck, we had our choice. (The fact that we made the wrong one is irrelevant to the argument.)
Every year, talent will drop. To say that every single position of need (OL, S, WR) will be gone is really strretching credibility…though it is a fun exercise.
Now about revisionist history teachers…
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
Not a Flawed Premise
Actually, it’s pretty insightful. The idea going into the draft is that one cannot use hope as a plan, and cannot be completely certain of how the draft will unfold. Good teams think through their options ahead of time, and I would be willing to bet a paycheck the Cowboys have thought through a scenario just like the premise of this mock.
Is this scenario likely? Maybe not. But a prepared team can’t afford to be so cavalier as to ignore it, because what if all the good tackles and safeties are gone, and what if you can’t find a reasonable trade partner? The theme running through Raf’s series is that drafting is about maximizing value in a flexible manner, as opposed to the standard fan approach of fixating on a few players or letting their alleged needs dictate their plans for them. Far from being flawed, it’s a perceptive series that gives us a peek into the uncertain nature of the business and how good teams plan for it.
You seem to be locked in on the deterministic as opposed to the stochastic nature of the process. Until you can figure that out, the discussion will just be going around in circles.
Better to be realistic than random
It’s not that this is not fun, but it’s quite a red herring.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
You're Implying Stochastic Means
Completely random. As in, pure guesswork. It’s not. Some outcomes can be much more probable than others. The good teams work on the allegedly realistic scenarios and the ones that appear unlikely. Because there is too much on the line to ignore it.
You're Also Assuming
Planning for the unlikely scenarios somehow invalidates the so-called realistic ones. They’re not mutually exclusive—teams that draft well have both in their dossiers, so they are prepared for most any eventuality.
Think of it this way Fighter
This is a “what if last year is repeated this year?” drill. Dallas was continually confounded last draft when players they wanted would barely slip out their graps. This reminds me of that scenario.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
absolutely love the first two picks
and would absolutely love it if we could somehow get cam thomas and john jerry with the next two. oh and on a side note I agree with howboutdemcowboys about getting kyle williams in the later rounds. the kid’s a play maker!
by Demarion Warber on Mar 13, 2010 9:53 AM CST reply actions
Raf you are kidding around aren't you ?
Kyle was a good pick in the first if all desired Oline and Safeties were gone. But the others all seem to be real reaches. There would have to be better values at those spots. Matthews on some rankings doesn’t even get drafted. Wang goes in the 5-6 rounds. With the needs we have , unless it is an absolute steal at WR would not be the second pick.
This draft is a draft that is working off the last thing he wrote.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 13, 2010 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
Raf is being smart
I hope JJ is too.
I would like to sneak into the War Room and see the Boys draft board.
I’m 100% with Raf as to takeing the best player available reguardless of position.
If it’s Wilson ok.I’ve seen bucoo drafts and they are all over the place with who we take.
There are some guys who look like bad apples like Mays.Bryant maybe.Now one guy has reveled he is achild molester and one has chromes disease.Mt Cody is too fat etc.
It seems like ther are no sure fire choices past No. 12
Raf why are we so sold on not taking a QB?MacGee has shown nothing and if a big upgrade fell to us late why wouldn’t we take him?
by TCB Orange Dino on Mar 13, 2010 10:18 AM CST reply actions
Eight Holes...
and only three – four expected to be filled through the draft; which, is why the Cowboys have missed the boat in free agency. Jamal Williams, who is the prototype NT in a Wade Phillips defense, could have filled the backup NT position. Leigh Bodden and Stephen Neal could have added incredible depth at positions of need and brought over a championship mentality from the Patriots. The Cowboys need 4-5 additional contributors; and this, being an uncapped year, was the time to play the free agent market. Plus, filling holes in free agency would have given the franchise more flexibility on draft day. Oh well, there’s always 2013.
I actually think
Given what’s there and the fact that Newwoman is a china doll. CB is actually a position of need in the near future also. However, you said no trading back, so given this scenario, I would flip the 27th for Gaither, and pick s safety in the second like Jones. I also hope they still fill the safety need with free agencey, with someone like Atogwe. So we keep sensi for another year and let our blue chip rookie safety get his feet wet in spots.
by TONYINCC on Mar 13, 2010 10:34 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Ed Wang really needs to work on his strength
he didn’t look so good in the Senior Bowl. I like Marshall Newhouse though. Can play either tackle or guard and is athletic for his size. Seems like a rich man’s version of Brewster
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Agreed...
I really think Newhouse would be a great mid round pick for the O-line since he seems to mix the size the Cowboys like with the athleticism that is necessary to pull and work well in space.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 13, 2010 2:28 PM CST up reply actions
I like taking a WR in the 1st or 2nd round under this scenario
WR is definitely a need. We are a pass-first offense (our best running play is the draw) and our only top notch recievers are Austin and a TE. To be a really good offense, we need to develop more WRs. RW will probably start this year because even a 1st or 2nd round WR will take time to develop, but I don’t want to be in the same position next year that we are this year- RW isn’t working out, but we don’t have anyone better so we have to keep him. Ogletree shows promise and Crayton and Hurd are solid, but the more talented WRs we have to compete for three starting spots the better.
hm...
I just think, we got good receivers from undrafted ones, or late round picks..austin, crayton and so…ogletree maybe too
But can we find good safety in late round? I now WR is our need…but I hope we can again find good WR in late round again…as we proofed in recent years…
if we draft wilson in first, we can still got good safety in second too….Rolle, Burnett, Allen, or Chad Jones? maybe just a little move up and we can get one of them…
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
hmmm...
I agree that Sherman has worked wonders getting solid (Crayton, Hurd, Ogletree) and even outstanding (Austin) receivers late in the draft. But we can’t count on getting another Austin (and it took three years for him to become the reciever that he has become). Many teams in the league right now are starting competent safeties that were picked in late rounds, including Ball with the Cowboys. If the Cowboys think that Burnett, Allen, or Jones are going to be “playmakers” ala Polamalu, Reed, Dawkins, etc. then they should grab them (even if they have to trade up in the 2nd to get them). I don’t think Rolle would fit this category of safety because I think he only had 3 interceptions in 3 years of starting at safety, but he would make a solid addition if available later in the draft.
If Romo is on his back or running for his life does it matters who is running routes.
KICK ASS every day!!!
what about brandon lafell as our mid round pick?
big guy, enough high, type that cowboys like…he was in the front of the WR before this year….but what i heart from LSU fans, with better QB he could to do bigger splash …so he could be nice steal….IMHO…
almost forget, he is good run blocker….
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
I like LaFell
He’s probably the only WR left under Raf’s scenario that I would consider in the 1st. I would be surprised if he were still available at the end of the 2nd, but he would be a very good value there.
That gives me an idea
Bennett is an even better blocker than RW, and just as unreliable at catching passes, so why don’t we line him up at WR instead of RW?
Did everyone forget?
the abomination that was the Cowboys effort in MN?
The offensive line needs immediate help – and that has got to be priority number 1.
I also agree Safety is number two – Big D has got to get a true hitter in the defensive backfield – we have no intimidation factor back there and D needs to put the fear of God in the WR that go across the middle.
We lack that presence (like a Cliff Harris) that plays out in intangible ways late in the 3rd or 4th qtr when the WR get alligator arms.
As it is, the WR just seem to run wild in our secondary. I want to see some folks hurt!!!!
But by God we have got to get Romo some more protection or he won’t be around long.
After those two needs, then get what the wish list allows……
"Triumph of the uncluttered mind"
I hate the word "effort"...
when it’s misplaced.
It wasn’t effort that got dallas beat, it was talent.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 13, 2010 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
+1 how many times did we here about guys being open in the Minn game but no time to throw.
KICK ASS every day!!!
+2 Squid, you nailed it.
OL infusion is a must. We need upgrades on the OL. I don’t care how it’s done, but it must be addressed this year. Going up against better D-Lines is going to get Romo killed. TR has been fortunate in avoiding major pain staking hits so far, but Murphy’s Law does apply here and it’s only a matter of time if the OL isn’t addressed. Protect TR better than average and even mediocre WR’s will get open. If you deem a QB worthy of protection, then protect him and all else will flow.
Did you forget?
That Columbo was playing his second game back from injury and Flozell got hurt in the 1st quarter? Our pass protection was horrible for one game, but was above average for most of the year.
I still think we need to upgrade our O-line because our run blocking should be improved- it just doesn’t seem right that our best running play (by far) is the draw. An inability to knock defenders back has really hurt our short-yardage and red zone offenses and is probably the main reason we had such great offensive numbers but not great scoring numbers.
I can agree about COlumbo, but neither he nor Flozell play OG
The Vikings were crushing the pocket on almost every pass play. Kevin Williams was literally handing Kosier to Romo on any 5 and 7 step drops.
+1 and the fact that they will be older and more prone to nicks.
Also throw in the fact that line has been the problem at the end of the season each of the last 4 years.
I have my preference and I think history of the way the last 4 years have ended back my stance on need of Oline. Jerry has come out and said the same thing. Throw in the age of this group and its hard for some other position to top priorty. However, I want the BPA at the best value. If a CB or WR is there and meets these criteria, Im on board. I see the logic in most of these picks and if Jerrys crew is thorough with evals, I’ll be ready to roll with anyone. Im ready for some football.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Raf, I don't like this draft as much as your others.
Kyle Wilson is good but after that, the players you have selected can be had in later rounds and I think there are better players to pick from. Here is what I would like to see go down if Pouncey or Iupati is not available when we pick in the first round.
1st pick – CB Kyle Wilson, convert him to free safety (he likes to hit and has good field vision.)
2nd pick – RB Toby Gerhart to be converted to Fullback ( he will be the next Moose)
3rd pick – C J.D. Walton or Eric Olsen (move Gurode to OG, once rookie is ready)
4th pick – OG Newhouse (too short to be a OT, but should be a good OG)
6th pick – DT Mike Neal (needs some pounds, but has speed)
7th pick – CB Walter McFadden (or best DB available)
This draft would solve a lot of problems and would provide the depth that we need.
Our OL gets better, our goal line and short yardage is much improved with Gerhart.
Defensive backfield is much improved and deeper.
Hopefully, the LB’s from last years draft come through. Beuler gets the job kicking FGs.
This draft would be a solid one and would give me great hope for next year.
Thoughts?
Gerhart is a much better athlete than moose ever was.
To me he is a running back. He reminds me of Eddie George.
by houseofprime on Mar 13, 2010 1:05 PM CST up reply actions
Gerhart, not a FB
Flounder,
Gerhart has good size, good hands, is smart and fits the old prototype of what FBs should be. Why do you think he can’t be a FB?
Old prototype of FB?
Is that just a way of saying that he is white? PFT has a great article about this trite comparison of Gerhart to FB’s instead of similar running backs like Eddie George, Dillion b/c of his race-
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/02/27/gerhart-jokes-about-only-being-compared-to-white-players/
i think he is
More of an alstot type, w a little better speed.
by TONYINCC on Mar 13, 2010 3:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Gerhart
College’s don’t produce good FB’s anymore and drafting one or grabbing an UDFA hasn’t been effective in the past. Why not take a chance on Gerhart and then if we find that Barber is ineffective this year, we have his replacement.
Does he want to be FB and do we use one enough to justify a 2nd. Do we want 4 RBs.
Having a TE that doubles as a FB is one of the reasons we have a spot cleared for to kickers.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Instead of just comments like this....
perhaps you should say, “well I’d rather do this”.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 13, 2010 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
Raf is right, can never have enough cbs
I wouldn’t mind Wilson in the first at all.
In Romo we Trust
Agreed
Not my first choice but I would be more than happy with that. There aren’t a ton of guys that I just despise in this draft. Mays would break my heart though.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 13, 2010 3:32 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I've herad Dallas has no problem taking a CB high
if they think the value is there.
I like the Kevin Mathews picks
he was very reliable, and no one ever doubted his capability and reliability despite starting as a walk on
This is my favorite Mock so far
despite not mentioning the 6th and 7th round.
You do need to draft CBs high to get elite ones. Mike Jenkins is better than advertised, lets see if Dallas can do it twice. I believe Dallas has drafted one every year since at least Wade’s tenure. 2nd CB taken from the WAC in 3 years? Whats up with tohat
I don’t know the 2nd rounder but he does have 2nd round measurables, and WR coach Ray Sherman has demonstrated his excellence with Miles Austin. And now two speed/passing game players drafterd from USF in 3 years.(Mike Jenkins)
What I like about this mock, it breaks the mold we’d all taken. Dallas does need more CBs but a lot of mocks focused on S, OT, LB and G instead.
And Kevin Mathews – he’s going to be a very good center for a long time, I don’t know why a team would wait tell the 7th round to draft him
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