Cowboys Draft '10: A Trade Down, Anybody?
by Rafael Vela on Mar 17, 2010 1:19 PM CDT
121 comments
I spoke to a source recently who pointed me to other positions of interest for the Cowboys' 27th pick besides the usual suspects of offensive tackle and safety. He said the team will be prepared in the event the first wave of OTs and top safety prospects like Earl Thomas are gone. Almost as an afterthought, he added, "of course, they could look to trade down..."
In last week's mock prep, I asked people to consider what you would do if the bigger 1st round targets were gone by pick 27. Today, in the spirit of considering all possible permutations, I'm going to investigate trading down. Let's say for argument's sake that the pickings at 27 don't suit the Cowboys. Every player carrying a first round grade is gone, there's little difference between players at 27 and at 37 -- and the phone is ringing.
I've argued that with such a deep draft, teams at the top of the 2nd probably would not look to move up, since they probably wanted to get extra picks in the upper rounds. That was before the free agency period started. Since then,, some teams in the early 2nd have fortified themselves by dealing veterans for extra picks. Right now, I see three teams at the top of the 2nd with the ammunition to move up.
Going off draft value charts*, here are three potential points swaps:
Scenario One
- Dallas trades its 27th pick (value 680 points) to Cleveland
- Cleveland trades its 38th pick (520 points) & the 85th pick (165 points) to Dallas
- Dallas gives 680 points and gets 685 points in picks
I would not be surprised if a deal like this occurred. New Browns kahuna Mike Holmgren and Jerry Jones have traded several times over the years. They swapped 1st round places in '99 so the Cowboys could pick Ebenezer Ekuban; they made the Joey Galloway deal the following spring and they swapped places again in '08 so the Cowboys could move up and take Mike Jenkins. Holmgren isn't a stickler for the draft value chart, taking less than chart value in the Jenkins deal two years ago.
The Browns have traded several vets recently, QB Brady Quinn, LB Kamerion Wimbley and DT Corey Williams, and now have three 3rd rounders and multiple 4th and 5th rounders. If a player grabbed their fancy at 27 they could move on a deal like this and give Dallas an extra 3rd, which would trump the Cowboys lost 5th rounder.
Scenario Two
- Dallas trades its 27th pick (680 points) and its 59th pick (310 points) to Kansas City
- Kansas City trades its 36th pick (540 points) its 50th pick (400 points) and its 132nd pick (40 points)
- Dallas gives 990 points in picks and gets 980 points of picks in return
The Cowboys move down into the early 2nd and get to move up nine spots from their late 2nd to the mid round, going from 27th to 18th within the round. This could get Dallas into the end of the 2nd round graded players and out of the early 3rd round grades. Dallas has been burned picking on the wrong side of this fault line in recent years, losing out on guys like Steve Smith and Max Unger. The deal also recoups the 5th rounder Dallas traded away for Montrae Holland. What's more, the pick comes at the top of the 5th, rather than at the bottom.
Scenario Three
- Dallas trades the 27th pick (680 pts.) the 59th pick (310 pts.) & the 123rd (49 pts.) to Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay trades the 35th pick (550 pts.) and the 42nd (480 pts) to Dallas
- Dallas gives up 1039 points in picks and gets 1030 points of picks in return
This is the go-for-broke scenario. Dallas has only six picks because of the Holland deal. This swap costs Dallas its 4th rounder as well. On the other hand, it gives the team two picks in the first ten slots of the 2nd round. Would you swap a 4th for the chance to double dip here?
*(I am aware that draft charts carry less weight these days. I'm using these numbers to identify teams who have the picks to make the type of swaps that Dallas might accept.)
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I just can't wait for this draft anymore
And it’s more than a month away. Damn it.
by Cowboysaficionado on Mar 17, 2010 1:38 PM CDT reply actions
Give me some Scenario Three...
If there is any truth to the conventional wisdom that we “churned the bottom of our roster” in last year’s draft, then I think there would be less concern with mid-to-late round project picks, although in fairness the team has done pretty well in the mid rounds in years past.
This is a deep and talented team. A couple of true second rounders (IF we hit) could see meaningful playing time this year and hopefully address a few areas of need. (and no, I’m not looking to open up the whole need vs. BPA debate).
That said, if we take Jerry at his word that he is looking for as many as 11 new players on the team this year (and we haven’t signed any FA to date), that portends at least one trade down scenario to acquire extra pick(s). And I assume no one here believes there is a realistic chance that Jerry will look to trade up into mid first round.
On the other side of that...
…we have not done well with 2nd round picks in recent years. Martellus Bennett (who the jury is not out on, for sure, but regressed a bit this year), Anthony Fasano, Kevin Burnett, Jacob Rogers, Julius Jones (although Juice wasn’t bad), Al Johnson, etc.
I don’t think there’s something magical about that round that has us jinxed— I think we’re pretty good at player evaluation and that applies to all rounds equally, there is no reason 2nd round caliber players should flummox us— but we do have a poor recent history in that area. Probably just small sample size, as there are a number of years when we haven’t had 2nd rounders at all.
Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.
Add to that...
Quincy Carter
Tony Dixon
Dwayne Goodrich
Flozell was a 2nd, so was Gurode, so maybe it’s where we find OL starters (when they have knees, unlike Jacob Rogers)
So pardon my disposition; why should I listen to a system that never listened to me?
Solomon Page
was also a 2nd, so I guess that’s about 50-50 with 2nd round o-linemen in the past 12 years or so…
So pardon my disposition; why should I listen to a system that never listened to me?
Steven Jackson....
I'm a limousine-riding, jet-flying, kiss-stealing, wheeling-dealing son of a gun!!! Wooooo!!!
by Noble_Bloodlines on Mar 20, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions
i am a big fan of trading down
these trades could make it so that we would have the opportunity to draft several solid prospects at key positions. we would not have to rely on individuals being found in the latter rounds. In some mocks players like Pouency, Mays, and others at value positions fall to the 35-37 range.
More than likely we are trading down..
It shouldnt surprise anyone. Everyones man crush, Pouncey will be there at the top of the 2nd round. The only team I see at the bottom of the first that may draft him is Indy at 31.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
I wouldn't say more than likely
We’ll only trade down if all the first rd talent is gone, it might happen, it might not, but to say it probably will isn’t necessarily true.
In Romo we Trust
"Everyones man crush"
Ummm this coming from the guy that has slobbered all over Golden Tate?
Would you like a pack of irony to go in your coffee?
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
I have no problem admitting that...
but I also acknowledge that Tate wont be there at 27. Tate will be the first WR off the board giving that Dez Bryant is slipping.
I’m also not living a pipe dream thinking we will move up 10 to 12 spots for a safety. Giving Jerrys history of trading down, it is “more than likely” we are trading down. Especially considering were we are drafting.
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
I don't think we're moving up to get a safety...
but I don’t think Tate is going to be the first WR off the board.
I don’t think he went from being a potential second rounder to the first wideout off the board.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
A lot of mocks do have him as the first WR taken
See Pat Kirwin’s mock for example (he actually has Bryant as the 3rd wideout taken). Regardless, if Tate is there at 27 he would be a great option.
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 18, 2010 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah Kirwin has Dez going to us now at 27....
"Austin made the play, Austin saved the day" Brad Sham
Which would be good value IMO
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 20, 2010 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
trading down..
trading down is a great move, especially scenario number three, unless earl thomas or dez bryant is there for the picking.
by calicowboysfan94 on Mar 17, 2010 2:14 PM CDT reply actions
Great stuff
I bet the Cleveland scenario would be the most likely.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 17, 2010 2:16 PM CDT reply actions
Yeah, the Cleveland trade is the most realistic.
It’s a good guess and could happen.
The other 2 are not impossible but improbable. Especially scenario 3 as teams very rarely swap that many picks unless a player is involved or it’s over multiple years.
A look over last years first round trades (and there was 13) shows few trade downs used more than there first unless players were involved. The exceptions were; the Patriots traded their first and a fifth to move down for a second and 2 thirds (I’d love that trade!). Carolina had a multiple trade but it was over 2 years (08 and 09). Apart from that, trades like swapping a 1 and 2 for another teams 2, 3 and 4 (scenario 2) in the same year or swapping a 1, 2 and 3 for another teams two seconds (scenario 3) in the same year are not there. All the other trade downs are single 1st rounders traded for 2 or more later picks unless players are involved.
A look over the 08 trades also show no team trading its 1 and 2, or its 1, 2 and 3 in a trade down. Most of the multi-pick trade downs of the last 2 years involve a 1 and 5. Washington being the exception who gave up a 1, 3 and 5.
I don’t see us staying at 27. All the tackles and safeties will be gone by then. Pouncey is a good player but a reach at 27. Besides the talent difference between 27 and the 30’s isn’t very big.
Pouncy is not a reach at 27
Centers have been drafted in the first. Pounce would be a could pick, he can challenge at OG and eventual play C. That doesn’t mean he should be first choice, but he wouldn’t be a bad choice.
It wouldn’t be a bad pick but he’s going to be available at 35 to so why not trade back and get some extra picks.
Not really.
Lately, he’s been going before the Cowboys pick. Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Philly have all been seen as viable candidates for taking him.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 17, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Pouncey probably won't be there at 35
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 17, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I was wr...I was wrrrr....I was wrrrrr.....I wasn't right
Pouncey would be a good pick at 27, not the flashy choice that we all want…but a pick that should contribute to the team and become a stalwart on the O-line for the next decade.
Raf
After pondering all 3 scenarios, I’ve come to the conclusion that scenario 3 would be the best and here are my points:
1.- All our draft picks from last year were from the 3rd down on down, so we really dont need more prospects there.
2.- We would have 2 picks in the top 50!!! I consider this an excellent spot to get quality players that can either start right away or be ready in 1 to 2 years.
3.- Because of the uncertainty with the CBA, I much rather have to deal with two 2nd rounders than 1 first rounder. I bet you a lot of teams will be hesitant to sign their players and wait out until some kind of market has already been established by another team signing.
this is the draft post I've been waiting for
as I have no doubt all but maybe 1 of our targets will be gone and Trader Jerry being in charge. I love #2 and #3, but we seem to have very good luck in how the picks turn out by trading with Cleveland.
2009 BTB Part Deux Fantasy League Champion. 'Kill Everybody 13-2'. KDP knows football.
The Bears just cut Nathan Vasher
He’s been injury riddled the last few seasons, but once was a pro bowl cb. He could probably be had for pretty cheap
You aint been around in awhile, maybe you haven't hear....I don't shine shoes no more
This is the kind of thing
that JJ must have been talking about, there will probably be some more vets cut in the next few weeks leading to draft day, there will be some good players available that won’t cost as much as a Peppers or Rolle and not as old as a Williams.
Scandrick?
As much as I would love to have a former Pro Bowl corner on our team, I hope it wouldn’t interfere with the career path of O-Scan.
That being said, Vasher has obvious local ties (UT), and not so obvious local ties – I worked with his older brother in Plano.
It’s a fine line. If we are really pushing to host the Super Bowl, have a look see. Otherwise, I’d hate to have an overmanned defensive backfield stunt the growth of our best nickelback (and probable future starter) in quite some time.
by Texas Tornado on Mar 17, 2010 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions
BTW...
Your quote is awesome. My friends and I were doing this schtick earlier over green beer.
by Texas Tornado on Mar 17, 2010 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
vasher may be a great idea, just like ken lucas
we need a moderately cheap vet CB who can provide some depth. this will take the pressure off having to draft one high. would also be a good option to relieve short term injury gaps.
He might be a decent idea...
if he is willing to accept a certain role.
Alot of starting corners want to get shots at starting jobs.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Just say NO to Vasher
I live in Chicago and I can tell you for certain that Vasher is not a starting quality cb, much less a probowl cb. He has been really bad for last several years. He has been in and out of the line-up just as often for poor play as for injuries. I would rather have Courtney Brown.
derek anderson signs with Arizona
according the Schefter
2009 BTB Part Deux Fantasy League Champion. 'Kill Everybody 13-2'. KDP knows football.
I'd be fine with any of the scenario's if nobody they like is there at #27
Any trade that gets Dallas 2 picks in the “sweet spot” in that 2nd rd is good. I personally like the #2 scenario the best, picking up that 5th rd pick is kind of a bonus.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
How can there be nobody at 27?
It’s a deep draft. We have already discussed OL, another CB, a monster for the DL or a potential MLB. Jerry could even draft McCoy at 27 and use him as trade bait for Al Davis.
Everybody would love to get the same player later – like Jerry’s trade down then back up to get Spencer, but sometime you just have to take Carp and live with it.
I trust Dallas' scouts to have an accurate draft board
And they might not have a 1st rd value on the guys available.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 17, 2010 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions
the strength at 27 might make for a very enticing trade opportunity
maybe even a future first, that be sweet!
Vasher Makes Too Much Sense
A veteran cornerback with Super Bowl experience who needs to re-coup his value with a curt, show-me contract?
Vasher would give the Cowboys four quality corners, wouldn’t stop progress, would provide draft-day flexibility and could bring a ball hawking mentality to a youngish secondary. Signing quality, veteran free agents to short-term, front-loaded contracts in an uncapped year for contingency purposes in an effort to win a Super Bowl before the work stoppage?
Apparently, it doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Veteran doesn't mean upgrade.
Alot of these veterans want a chance to be a starter.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 17, 2010 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions
He's been cut for 6 hours, Tex
Let’s relax before saying it “doesn’t make a lot of sense.” It’s certainly possible that he’ll be considered by Jerry/Stephen.
Also, he’s not a very good player. Check out his metrics the last 3 years. Not sure what “Super Bowl experience” means either for a CB. Jason David has Super Bowl experience, and he’s one of the worst 5 CBs in the NFL.
Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.
But Vasher is a vet.
He would just grab the WR by the scruff of the neck and it would be lights out.
i think it is best if he is looked at as a 4th corner...
that can take some pressure off the draft and start in a pinch
St Patty's or Apri Fools Day?
“for argument’s sake that the pickings at 27 don’t suit the Cowboys. Every player carrying a first round grade is gone, and the value between players at 27 and at 37 isn’t that much different. And the phone is ringing”
Why do the Brown, Bucs, Chiefs or anybody else want to move to 27 when the first round talent is gone – Tebow, McCoy, and TE?
maybe there is talent there that doesn't necessarily fit the Cowboys
what if a CJ Spiller fell? It happens quite a bit.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 17, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
Just because everyone we grade as 1rst round is gone does not mean someone like Cleveland or Tampa has different grades.
Jerry should draft Spiller and trade Choice to the Bucs
for Suh! Seriously if Spiller has a first round grade, then Jerry should draft him at 27.
Spiller and Jones are basically the same kind of back
So drafting Spiller wouldn’t make much sense unless you’re willing to move Felix.
In Romo we Trust
you would say no to two felixes.
i would love to have another felix to go with ours. injuries, need i say more
yes I would
Your backs shouldn’t all be the same style of back. I like our three headed monster, no need to change a good thing.
In Romo we Trust
While drafting Spiller is certainly illogical I don't necessarily like that line of reasoning.
I think having two speed demons to chase around over the course of a game would give a defense just as many headaches as dealing with an explosive back and battering ram type of runner would.
if spiller fell
likely jerry will make a trade like the one he did with the browns the year they took B. Quinn
Maybe a stretch,
but what happens if, as was the case a few years ago, Clausen was in a free fall, a la Brady Quinn, and a team desperate for a QB wanted him? Could we see someone offer us a deal like Cleveland did that year, with a solid pick next year and an early 2 this year? I know we’re picking much lower in the first this year, but I just wondered if anyone thought this was a legit scenario.
I'd be absolutely stunned if that happened
There are too many teams looking for a qb in the top 20
In Romo we Trust
Terry,
if he gets outside of the top 10, I only see 3 teams that could possibly take him. I don’t think it will happen, but it’s just as possible as the Quinn fall.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
but how does he get past the top 10 teams?
Washington, Cleveland, Seattle?? I can’t see Clausen getting past any of those teams.
In Romo we Trust
Washington could easily go OT due to Samuels retiring. There’s a chance Bradford could be there if they want to go QB. They could also grab a piece to help them transition to the 3-4 they’re installing.
Cleveland has a lot of needs, especially with the trades they made. They need a DL and an OLB now. They could use a DB. They could use a WR. Not to mention the fact that they just signed Delhomme and traded for Wallace.
Seattle is a team that would have a couple chances at him, and one of the three outside the top 10 that I mentioned. They seem most likely of the three you mention. But they too have a lot of needs. They need a OT. They need a RB. They could use a S.
Again, I’m not saying this scenario is likely to play out, but it’s not entirely far fetched either.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to mention,
that Seattle just gave up a third rd pick next year and moved down 20 spots in rd two this year to get Charlie Whitehurst from San Diego, and they’re going to pay him $5 million/yr! I suddenly doubt they’re going to be much in the QB market.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions
One reason why it could happen
it seems like Bradford is much more highly rated than Clausen – Clausen could be the Aaron Rodgers to Bradford’s Alex Smith.
I bet some teams wish they had not passed on Rodgers now.
by I_miss_Switzer on Mar 17, 2010 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Why does he have that written all over him?
Just out of curiousity?
I’m not an OU fan or anything, but Bradford is one of the best pure passers coming out of college I’ve seen since Carson Palmer.
Not saying that he’s not going to be a bust, but it wasn’t like the system was what made him have pinpoint accuracy or arm strength.
His durability is the biggest question in my mind.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Far fetched- –adjective
improbable; not naturally pertinent; being only remotely connected; forced; strained:
Unlikely-–adjective
1.not likely to be or occur; improbable; marked by doubt
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 18, 2010 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions
It would have to be a QB
Can Clausen fall past the Cardnals?
They just handed
Derek Anderson a decent payday, so I think so. If he reaches all of his incentives (not likely, but hey) he’ll make almost $20 million over two years. Plus they still have to give Leinart another try. I think they’ll draft a QB, but I doubt it will be in the first round.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Mr Anderson - sucks
Clausen would get a good long look from the Cards.
Obviously not everyone thinks so.
The Seahawks and Cardinals just had a bidding war for the guy. You think they sign him to the salaries they did if they didn’t think he could play. I think they’re pretty content going into this season with Leinart, Anderson, and a mid round draft pick.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
He needs a chance to run through a full season on his own, but I am far from believing he can be the guy for them…Lucky for them, they got a guy in Anderson that likes to ‘throw it up there’ for a receiver to catch. And lucky for him, he now has a WR who can actually come down with it in Larry, but $20 mil for a Browns castoff? Crazy.
Here's a scenario:
Scenario One-
Dallas trades its 27th pick (value 680 points) to Cleveland
Cleveland trades its 38th pick (520 points) & the 85th pick (165 points) to Dallas
Dallas gives 680 points and gets 685 points in picks
Cleveland trades up into the bottom of the first to take either McCoy or Tebow. From what I’m hearing, this is a strong possibility. Not necessarily with Cleveland, but someone wanting one of those two guys in the late first. Tebow had a nice Pro Day today with his new throwin motion.
Dallas takes:
2.38 – FS Nate Allen, So. Florida
2.59 – OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale
3.85 – C JD Walton, Baylor
3.90 – WR Jacoby Ford, Clemson
here is what i would like to see with those two first picks, unlikely but what i would like to see
38 – (C/G) Pouency – He be could there, centers fall, and he is rated around 30 on most sites. If not there may be other falling Oline prospects. Maybe a Charles Brown or Vladimir Ducasse.
59 – (S) Burnett – Guy has better stats than Allen and we do not have to rush his development.
Raf, any thought of a trade up?
Raf, have you heard any suggestions of a trade up? Maybe 5 spots or so to potentially grab a falling, last-of-a-1st-graded-tier player?
I was wondering the same.
Another trade with Philly perhaps?
A thought that’s been bouncing around my head: What if Houston would trade down? Chances are that only Baltimore would take a CB in between 20 and 27. They could add value, still get possibly get their CB pick of choice. If they don’t get the one CB they want, they can still take a guy like Ryan Matthews who is gaining steam pretty quickly and seems like a pretty logical pick for San Diego…the team that picks at 28.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 17, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
According to the value cahrt
To move up 5 spots would cost us a 3rd and to move up 10 spots would cost us a 2nd.
In Romo we Trust
Or a player
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 17, 2010 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Would you give up a 3rd...
…and a 4th next year to move up 7 ?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 17, 2010 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Depends who you are after...
I seems like there is a good possibility ET will go even higher, as even one mock I saw had him #10 to JAX. I could see if Thomas is still on the table at 22 or so, potentially making the jump up…But it is hard to tell if a run on OT will happen or not and how all the pieces fall to make things happen. Seems like you have to look for
a) one of the top tackles
b) Earl Thomas—He would be my ‘a’ pick
c) Iupati,
d) Pouncey,
e) Bryant or Tate,
f) trade down.
I think any of those players can be great additions down the road and if pick 20 comes up and there are still quite a few of those guys left, you might as well hold your ground, not give up anything, and choose the best remaining on your board.
Rumblings in Jacksonville
There have been discussions in Jacksonville about Tim Tebow and they are getting louder. Their first pick is too early for such a move but they need something to increase fan interest and sellout games. Eight games were blacked our last year. Tebow could sell tickets since he is a legend in that area. He could spend a year behind Garrard then be ready.
That being said, if 27 rolls around and Tebow is still there, Jacksonville might be tempted to call with next years number one (always easier to give up that pick that is far away). They have already traded this years number two, so next year’s picks have to be in the offering. i cannot say it is going to happen but the possibility is out there.
Cannot wait for the draft!
Does anybody else think Tebow will be a complete bust. His throwing mechanics suck and Florida ran a very easy passing offense. He might be a decent wildcat player but would anyone really use a 1st round pick on a part time player.
I think if he does succeed it will be a Steve Young/Vinny Testaverde type scenario.
Both guys’ careers got off to miserable nightmarish starts and they didn’t realize their potential until they went to another team. Tebow is so raw that if he ever does become an accomplished QB it probably won’t be until his 5th or 6th year as a pro and as a member of his 2nd or 3rd team.
I see nothing good coming from him going to a team where they’d try to plug him in early.
Is there any word what those wacky Patriots think of Tebow? They love getting multiple use out of players and if Brady’s knee holds up, he’ll easily play another four years but who knows how much longer than that? They could deploy Tebow in a number of ways and use the slow burn method to develop him behind Brady. This is all just a shot in the dark but I’m throwing it out there anyways.
I agree Tebow will probably be a bust
It doesn’t matter if he improves his mechanics, he just is really slow at processing information in the pocket, something that is a must for a NFL qb.
In Romo we Trust
Who in thier right mind would draft Tebow before the third round?
I know he is popular and could generate fan interest, but I don’t see anybody (including Jacksonville) spending a 1st or 2nd rounder on a guy who will most likely be no more than a tight end or wildcat/specialty player in this league. Even his supporters think he’ll take at least 2 years to develop in to a quarterback, and that puts him into the 3rd round or much later in my book.
Then again, I thought the idea of Matt Jones being drafted in round 1 was nonsense, too.
The Pats have three second round picks
It wouldn’t necesarily be foolhardy for them to take a flier on Tebow.
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 18, 2010 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Unless...
… Thomas (highly unlikely) or Pouncey falls in our lap, I think it wouldn’t be bad at all to get an extra high pick in a draft this deep. Maybe a couple of O Line building blocks? Sounds like the way to go to me. Our team is good enough that a first rounder would REALLY have to be something special to make an impact anywhere but special teams or in the case of an injury.
That being said, I would be hella pissed if I tuned in on Thursday night to learn we wouldn’t do anything until Friday.
I wish I would wake up tomorrow and it was draft day.
Does anyone else think....
that Seattle giving up a second and a future third for Charlie Whithurst is borderline insane?
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 17, 2010 8:46 PM CDT reply actions
(Raises Hand)
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 17, 2010 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I really don’t think it was that bad. The other option I heard that they were interested in was Anderson and he got way to much money. Now Seattle doesn’t have to use 1 of their 1st round picks on a QB. They’ll probably get to see what Whitehurst has to offer at some point because Hasselbeck is injury prone and its not like they were going to compete this year anyway.
If Anderson got too much money,
then what’s that say about paying a guy $5 mill/yr who has never even thrown a pass in the league?
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Whitehurst makes $5M a year. Wow he’s overpaid. I still Anderson got way to much money. It could go to $20M if he makes the incentives.
I'm sure that they are
incentives that he will only hit if he’s one of the top three QB’s in the league both years. He’ll most likely earn about $7.5 mill over both years combined.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I saw that Whitehurst signed for 2 years $10M I wonder how much of that is incentive based and base pay.
If Seattle is giving up that much for Whitehurst then he’ll probably be starting at some point this year. If he becomes the teams starting QB and performs well its not a bad deal if not then Seattle is only out 2 years and a 3rd round pick.
I don't even think they gave up a 2nd.
From what I read, they just switched spots in the 2nd, which was a difference of 20 spots.
by Mandmeisterx on Mar 17, 2010 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Somebody must like him.
And he was a 3rd-round pick himself. His preseason numbers don’t jump out and are actually poor but those are preseason numbers which are hard to gauge since he was playing with a bunch of rogues.
Obviously, I guess they’re trying for another Matt Hasselbeck, who was a throw-in by the Packers with a package that included 1st and 7th round picks for the Seahawks’ higher 1st and a 3rd.
Yeah....
I mean I guess lots of guys have potential but there isn’t anything about him that jumps off the charts.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Scenario 2 works good for both Teams, but
only if Pouncey or Thomas are gone.
Rafa makes a very good point in this scenario in that we have missed out on good players we wanted in the second only to see them gone before our pick came up. The reality is if you believe there are only a limited number of 2nd rounder we will not get a player with a second round grade with the 59th pick.
There is another important reason I think this scenario would work for KC.
The 50th pick was the pick KC got from the Falcons for Tony G. The last thing they need is for the player to have to live up to the legacy of Tony G. The people in this town would never stop comparing him to Tony. But if they make this move they won’ t have to live with that problem. Plus they really get there fan base existed about getting two 1st round picks.
I really like this scenario it would remind me of when we traded back and got Darren Smith and Kevin Williams.
Woodson is a Hall of Famer!!!
If we trade down, that's two years in a row without a 1st round pick
Not advisable. However, looking at a couple of mid 2nds, as opposed to BPA which we don’t need, like a 4th corner in the 1st, or a DL that wouldn’t start. Still, we have to wait and see if we pick up any players before the draft. There could be some good scenarios, but it’s too early to tell. If we get a deal like Cleveland gave us 3 years ago, hell yeah. Get their 2nd this year, and their 1st next year, now that’s doable.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
Losing a 1st round pick to get two 2nds could be better than
the alternative- which is spending a 1st round pick on a player that shouldn’t have been drafted until the second round anyway.
I reckon there will be a couple of first round grades available when we pick
So I don’t think they trade down.
Lots of underclassmen coming out this year so its a slightly deeper draft than normal. And you can always count on the Raiders to pick the fastest guy in draft – even if everyone else has him rated two rounds later. (Jacoby Ford, come on down…..)
"Where's Woody? - We need another Darren Woodson
Is there anybody that other teams would be willing to trade up for other than QB?
I like our position at 27, because the Vikings (who should be considering the best of the 2nd tier QBs with their first pick) pick right after us. If a team like Cleveland or even KC want their 1st choice of the 2nd tier QBs, they may be willing to trade.
Other than that scenario, I don’t see any other “special” players worth trading up for.
Maybe if a team really liked one of the DTs that might still be available (Odrick or Cody) because of Bill’s “planet theory”, but I can’t think of anybody else, can you?
For all my sound and fury (about trading down)
it signifies nothing.
I’m not in favor of trading down. But if the premise behind Raf’s Mock 4.0 comes to fruition, then I think it’s the most likely scenario.
All that said, I still think that one of the OTs fall (my hope is Campbell or Brown), one of the two interior guys (Pouncey or Iupati) and one of the safeties (most likely Mays). Maybe all three. My choice would be Cambell, Iupati, Pouncey, or Safety in that order.
The other scenario I keep hearing is Dez Bryant falling. And for all my editorializing on bust factors of WRs, I’ll have to buy a new TV if we don’t take him.
That said, unless a safety or OT falls, GM Jerry is most likely to trade down. It’s not my preference, but I believe it’s the most probable scenario. So give me Scenario 1. Fewest moving parts, best value, and historical precedence.
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
The funny thing about drafts are
the best player that comes out of a lot of drafts isn’t taken in the 1st round. It’s a sleeper that’s taken in the 2nd round and later. If Jerry only had a crystal ball, look how much money he could save.
Yep...
I still haven’t been drafted.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions
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