Cowboys Draft '10, Part 15: The Tape versus The Track
by Rafael Vela on Mar 18, 2010 5:58 PM CDT
108 comments
The pattern repeats.
Every February, about the time that the Senior Bowl concludes, the "professionals" caution us draftniks: don't go crazy over 40 times and bench press numbers. The players tape always means more.
Then, the Combine takes place. The Pro Days unfold. And good football players drop below guys with track stats.
Florida's just-concluded Pro Day offers us an interesting test case to track. The Gators All-American inside linebacker Brandon Spikes left the day as the anomaly, the big Florida prospect who worked out poorly. Spikes eschewed running at Indy and yesterday he looked sluggish, posting 40 times in the 5.00-5,10 range. (Start at the 1:42 mark.) He's being downgraded by unanimous consensus of the amateur draftniks, even though nearly all of them laud his game tapes.
(photo via www.gatortailgating.com)
Two Men Say They're Jesus, One of Them Must Be Wrong
Here's the money graf from the National Football Post's Wes Bunting's review of Spikes' workout:
"Spikes’ tape is good, and he does have the ability to find the football and create as a downhill guy. But you have to question his ability to make plays sideline to sideline with his lack of pure straight-line speed."
Yet, Bunting's inside linebacker grades, created before the off-season workouts, rate Spikes 2nd, behind Alabama's Rolando McClain. Bunting gave Spikes a 6.8 grade, signifying a player who, "becomes a starter in his rookie year…becomes a solid NFL player who has no real weakness…can’t be exploited or consistently taken out of games."
Which Bunting is right? The one whose tape grade puts Spikes in the 26-36 overall range, or the one who is now backpedaling Spikes into the 4th round, based on a stopwatch time?
Let's not pick on Wes Bunting, because he has company. Let's take the NFL Network's Mike Mayock. He also rates Spikes as the 2nd inside linebacker in this draft. In yesterday's report, he echoed Bunting, saying, "He ran a 5.1. 5.1 is a bad time and it tells the league he's a two-down linebacker only, and at that point where do you draft a kid like Spikes? His tape speaks for itself. He's a heck of a football player, but bottom line, the 5.1 hurts Brandon Spikes." (emphasis mine)
Mayock's probably right. Spikes time will hurt him, but how much? And how much should it hurt him? The big-name pundits love Brandon Spikes' in-game performances. Yet these same people are saying he's now likely dropped out of the 2nd round because he can't anchor a relay.
Spikes looks like a potential value to me. I'm gonna watch Brandon Spikes this year, whether the Cowboys draft him or not. He's the 2010 poster child for tape over track suits. If he plays in the pros the way he's played at Florida, we'll have more evidence that football players should be judged as... football players!
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Judged as football players?
That’s blasphemy!
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
BTW, Spikes is my pet cat for the 2nd or 3rd Round
He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors. - Thomas Jefferson
+1
I hope he falls to the third, that would be real nice, doesn’t take a arm and leg to get up there and take him, then in a few years have a ILB duo of Spikes/Williams
by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 18, 2010 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Spikes is one
of those system player that thrive because of the great team and teammate that surrounds him..in this decade how many Miami and USC players that were consider “can’t miss” type of player turn out to be bust?…
You mean systems players like Ray Lewis and Troy Polamalu?
Or Willie McGinest and Ed Reed?
by MadMick on Mar 18, 2010 11:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know if system players carries the
Same weight with defensive players as it does with offensive player. I could be wrong but defensive systems translate better to the pro. I just don’t thinkntheir is as many gimmicky Ds.
KICK ASS every day!!!
by squidlo97 on Mar 19, 2010 7:49 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Ummmm
I don’t think a guy being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round is considered a can’t miss player.
I also think that Spikes is more than just a system guy.
I thought he played awesome considering that I always thought the interior of Florida’s d line was just average.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 19, 2010 7:51 AM CDT up reply actions
A bad track time is one thing
But 5.0-5.1 isn’t a bad linebacker time. It’s an awful, horrible, inexcusable time. Not only does it call into question his physical gifts, it makes me wonder how much effort he put into preparing for the event.
Why does a guy have to run track if he can play football?
The guys has four pick sixes in his college career. Not picks. Picks for TDs. But he can’t play football all of a sudden?
Don’t think so.
when was the last time a Cowboys LB had a pick six?
I’m thinking ‘06 when Demarcus Ware picked off Michael Vick in Atlanta. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Terrance Newman against the Panthers this year
and Mike Jenkins had one against NY. Still though, the point stands.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 18, 2010 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh my bad...
Indeed that is correct then.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Mar 18, 2010 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions
It's all good...
I actually starting typing “Well, in that MNF game against Carolina…”
Then I re-read the comment.
how many
of those pick 6 were thrown directly at him because of heavy pressure from the front 4?
really it doesn't matter
four pick sixes means something
You're right.
Bradie James had a pick 6 that year too off of Vince Young.
by houseofprime on Mar 18, 2010 7:02 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Booyah!
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 18, 2010 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions
The Atlanta game
Was after Indy if I am correct, so I belive Raf is correct.
You aint been around in awhile, maybe you haven't hear....I don't shine shoes no more
by markdamack on Mar 18, 2010 10:14 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Believe*
You aint been around in awhile, maybe you haven't hear....I don't shine shoes no more
by markdamack on Mar 18, 2010 10:14 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
lol
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Mar 18, 2010 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions
He doesn't...
…but there’s a certain element of figuring out how much of what a player does on film in college will transfer over to the pro game. They can look great on film, but there’s more to it, especially when it comes to first round picks. Generally, the guys who are perennial all-stars are the ones who are more athletic than the other players at their positions. Doesn’t mean a guy like Zach Thomas can’t be great, it’s just that much harder. So that’s what people take a chance on in the first round.
If he had run a 4.8 or 4.9, a slow time for an LB, it would be easier to discount. But he ran a time that’s slower than QB’s, let alone RB’s and such that he’ll have to chase around. I guess my point is, I agree with you that 40 times aren’t everything, but they do mean something and a 5.1 must have an effect on how you rate a player.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 18, 2010 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Look at the clip I linked
The guy gets awful starts out of three point sprinters stance.
When is he ever going to play like this in a football suit? He’s watching snaps and motion, which he recognizes. he’s not waiting for a starters gun.
I don’t think they translate at all.
Looks to me like the guy knows he's gonna time poorly and is timid about running at all
and it makes him run worse.
Certainly possible...
…but how does a Florida LB not learn how to max out his best possible 40 time? It seems like the Florida guys always time fast, like it’s something in the water down there…
Say you are the Giants and McClain was gone and you had been thinking about taking Spikes in that spot…doesn’t this affect your decision greatly? If you’re looking for Patrick Willis or Brian Cushing or DWare but you end up with a Bradie James?
I feel like it’s especially relevant because ILB is a position that doesn’t carry the value of others, so even moving from the 2nd to 4th ILB could be the difference between 2-3 rounds and millions of dollars.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 18, 2010 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
The thing about Spikes
is he may be slow, but he diagnoses plays faster than any LB out there this year, even McClain, as well as he is a beast in run support and the vocal leader of Florida’s defense, remember the guy from Floriday Atlantic a lot of us wanted last year (can’t remember his name) he is basically the same player except sheds blocks like a pro as well as can diagnose a play in an instant, also…. again 4 INTs for TDs, he has FOOTBALL speed, not track speed
by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 18, 2010 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is a great point
"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Be that as it may
The level of competition he faced in college, even at a school like Florida, can’t begin to line up with what he’ll be seeing on the NFL gridiron. I realize and applaud what he did at the college level, but there are innumerable productive college players who were knocked silly by the Pros.
the average linebacker runs a 4.8 I believe
it is concerning, so I probably wouldn’t use a first rounder on him. As the saying goes let the next team be the hero and take him. Although if he is there by the time our second round pick rolls around I would seriously consider taking him.
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
I've never understood...
The “writing off” of players based on their combine measurables. These tend to be the same guys pumping up the Vernon Gholston-types, whose numbers never match(ed) their production at any level, in any context.
To sound cliche(add that little accent), I’d much rather draft a football player, rather than a combine freak. It just seems the combine freaks never really reach their potential… Aside from a few examples, Vernon Davis being the most recent, they just don’t work out as frequently.
To add...
I hate that 40 times are used as some yardstick for a given players potential… Christ, the Raiders would have been 19-0 the last three years if it was all about speed!
and yet, when Al Davis still had the touch, he stood up a DT and made him an ILB
Guy was named Matt Millen. I doubt he could run a 40 any faster than Spikes, but he could play football.
To be fair, Al Davis was one of the more revolutionary minds of the early NFL....
Alas, too bad he’s losing his mind now. I still can’t get over DHB. I was blown away on draft day….
I remember watching it, and a couple friends of mine are proud members of ‘Raider Nation’… Both were silent for an entire five minutes, taken aback by the shock of that pick. Boy, that was a fun day for the rest of us.
I pulled out my old draft books and looked up Tedi Bruschi
Guy ran times in the 4.8s. Is three inches shorter than Spikes. Is lighter than Spikes, who is 256 lbs.
His profile says he’s instincive, “reacts like he’s shot out of a cannon,” but dings him because his speed “questions whether he can drop into coverage.” The final writeup, by Joel Buchsbaum, who was one of the best, says, “may be better suited as a pass rush end in the Candian League rather than the NFL because of his size limitations…”
RIght.
The guy could play football. And he’s got three big rings to wave in your face.
Ha!
One of the best parts of the draft is watching the “experts” change or tweak their grades so they can save face in the event of a player not panning out, or vice versa…. “Well, yeah, I said he couldn’t cut it… But I also thought he had fantastic reaction and awareness!”
I love your quote(s) from Mayock. I’ve been watcing him on NFL Network for a while now, and much like Kiper/McShay, there are so many “I love him, but…”‘s it’s hilarious.
So Bruschi is better than Ray Lewis...
…because he’s got more rings?
Again, I appreciate the points you’re trying to make. But I don’t think you can wholly discount the 5.1. I even said in my previous post higher up that a time in the 4.8 range wouldn’t have hurt him as much…but this will ding him. Not to the 4th, but almost certainly out of the first.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 18, 2010 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions
okay, but where do I say he belongs in the 1st?
He’s like an early to mid 2nd and now people are dumping him into the 4th.
And what does Ray Lewis have to do with anything? Bruschi could flat out play.
Don’t put words in my mouth.
My point was just...
…you are too good an analyst to say that Bruschi was a great player just because of his Superbowl rings. I think it would make your argument better if you just said that Bruschi is one of the top 10 LB of the decade (or wherever you think he would rank) than talk about how many rings an ILB has…especially considering his coach.
You do agree that there needs to be someway to compare the athleticism of players in various conferences, though, right? Obviously athleticism is just one part of being a great ILB, but how do you compare small school guys to big school guys and guys in different schemes, etc? One way is this, which helps create a complete picture of the player.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Mar 18, 2010 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions
shakes head
Brushi was a big REASON the Pats won those Super Bowls. He was the nerve center of those defenses. You’ve got the causal chain backwards.
Not only does....
…..Brewski (as I like to spell it) have the best football name EVER. The flat out knew where to be. When you want to explain the difference between foot speed and football speed you start Ted. I hate him all the same.
The SEC is considered by many
To be the fastest conference in College football. They play pretty fast. “Football” fast, as people like to call.
You aint been around in awhile, maybe you haven't hear....I don't shine shoes no more
by markdamack on Mar 18, 2010 10:24 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd say Vrabel was just as important
In fact, wasn’t their downfall on defense linked to when they let McGinest go?
"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where did he say he was better than Ray Lewis?
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder what Dat Nguyen's 40 time was.
Or Bill Bates’s?
How many times in a game is your LB going to run a 40 yard sprint? Hopefully, only when it’s a pick six, like Spikes has a knack for.
Give me the football player as well. Maybe the 4.6 guy doesn’t like contact or has brick hands.
"We'll see." --Bill Parcells
He would definitely fill a need
I’d take Spikes over James and Brooking in a heartbeat. I love Brooking’s heart, but his days of intercepting passes and returning them for touchdowns are over. James is just plain overrated.
by CMcClure on Mar 18, 2010 6:59 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Put me on the Spikes bandwagon
Spikes is the classic 3-4 MLB, and those players are rare. Even if he is only a 3rd or 4th round pick in terms of value, Dallas need’s to figure out the future of the MLB position. Brooking obviously is getting up there and James isn’t too young. Williams is a project player, and other than him, we have who exactly, Bobby? Even if Spikes ultimately provides good depth, he would be worth the pick as he would have time to develop.
I'll live and die with number 9....
I love Spikes...
in the second or third.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I like him
in the second, in love w/ him in the 3rd
by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 18, 2010 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't want to hear what you'd do in the 7th
Golden Tate can believe it's not butter.
Like Raf said
When in the game will anyone ever line up in a track stance and wait for the gun? Isnt it widely know that rice had a horrible 40 time but he had “football” speed? I think so.
Also 40 time means NOTHING. Think about it. In a game you have pads on. Have to start and stop. Bounce around players. Shake off block/blockers. And finally rarely run in a straight line for 40yds! Plus 40 time is a sprint and a football game is a marathon. Id rather see their 5k time.
I hope he falls and dallas drafts him out of a pure value pick.
What the French?! Toast!
let the dude drop
Maybe the Boys can grab him in the third!
He is a playmaker regardless of his 40 time.
The boys would have an even better run defence with him
Yep...
he also can blind the opponent with his Rowdy Roddy Piper eye gouge.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Warning lights are flashing down at Quality Control.
I hope this guy drops in to the later rounds. I’ll take 11 guys just like him and line them up against 11 “athleticly superior” guys any day. It is football after all, not track.
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
Maybe he'll drop to the bottom of the 3rd
I read on one of the draft websites that he didn’t want to run because he had something wrong (injury?). But the scouts insisted they needed a time on him, so he gave in and ran, probably should have stuck to his guns.
I don’t think it will drop him that much though, because he’s not known to be a fast LB anyway. His strengths are his instincts, anticipation, quick diagnosis of plays. He would do best inside a 3-4, and you don’t need to be that fast to excel at the SAM.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
I think he'd be perfect if he fell to the bottom of the second.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 18, 2010 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
doesn't matter how fast you are if you don't know where to be
conversely a player can make up for lack of pure speed with good instincts, football intelligence and film study
With our 3rd
I’d have the card written out and waiting by the podium 10 picks in advance.
In the 2nd it would depend what we got in the 1st and who’s available.
+1
I’m the same way, I would probably go Spikes in the 2nd if we got Pouncey in the first (ET, Iupati werent’ there) and Ducasse is gone
by nicholas.rodriguez on Mar 18, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Trade up 3rd
If he’s there in the 3rd, he might be worth giving up a 6th to move up to get him. He played great in the SEC, so let’s not worry about what he ran the 40 in b/c that mentality hasn’t seemed to get the Raiders very far.
Wow bro
If the Cowboys do nab this guy, I’m gonna be speechless. Seriously, with the right picks, this draft could make our D unstoppable. A good playmaking safety + Brandon Spikes, that would be a dream draft day for me.
WHY IS THIS MONTH TAKING SO LONG? :P
by Cowboysaficionado on Mar 18, 2010 8:39 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
don't forget that when the draft does get here
it will take three days to complete ..
I have been in the Oline and Safety camp
from the beginning. I’ll tell you the thought of having this Spikes with Brookings for a year or so and to see that infectious leadership before being the leader himself sure has a good feel to it. Almost wish someone would pick up Spears to get the boys the extra second round to make sure he ends up in camp. Even without, if he was there in the second it would be worthwhile. Give me the football player everytime.
Still hovering........
Good stuff.
keep it up.
BTW
Greg Rosenthal at PFW posted a blurb about spikes and his 40 time…
exactly one hour after Rafael’s post hit.
Coincidence?
LOL
Whatever happened to that company? I guess people stopped listening.
to make the jump to the next level, Odrick said today he needs to work on one area. "Just being more violent overall,'' Odrick said. "Play the game and play it right, violently.''
by APerfectStar on Mar 19, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions
my (one) brilliant thought for the week:
If 40 times and bench press numbers really mattered, we’d see veteran free agents setting up “Pro Day”-style workouts to promote themselves and get the big bucks, i.e. “Nathan Vasher still runs a 4.42, so he should get a $5mil signing bonus.” Pacman is the only dude that I’ve heard trying that recently, so that tells me that game tape and personal recommendations are taken a lot more seriously than workout numbers…
by greatwhitenorth on Mar 19, 2010 12:27 AM CDT reply actions
I don't think he's gonna fall that far
The Patriots have three 2nd rounders and need an ILB. That’s house money for them.
I doubt that Spikes gets to pick 50.
The Pats are the ideal trade down.
Convince them to package two of those picks for #27 and change. They get a WR prospect and we get Spikes and a second tier safety.
that would be ideal
Golden Tate can believe it's not butter.
I just saw someone said the avg of LB is 4.8
and he ran a 5.1 at worst?
The difference is like from now to now now to now now now to now now now
Exactly.. just plain stupid
What the French?! Toast!
I don't care how slow Spikes ran his 40, he's a player
and if the Cowboys land him in the 2nd or 3rd round, I’d be very happy. We always have Jason Williams who can come in on passing downs, so a 1st and 2nd down ILB’s speed doesn’t concern me one bit.
I’m sure if you timed Brooking right now, he’s have a very hard time breaking 5.0 in the 40 as well.
In Romo we Trust
Hahaha
why would you want him, he has character issues.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 19, 2010 7:53 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Boosh
And/or kakow
You aint been around in awhile, maybe you haven't hear....I don't shine shoes no more
by markdamack on Mar 19, 2010 9:49 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
charaacter issues only come in to play for me
when talking about a first round prospect, you can’t get risky in that round…too important. As the draft goes on, the character issues become less important because it’s less investment you’re putting into a prospect.
In Romo we Trust
Well using your logic from an earlier post...
because Spikes poked a guy in the eye, it makes him a thug for the rest of his life, so why would you want that?
Why would you want a thug on your team?
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 19, 2010 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
......
That’s the exact type of crap you say!
And that fact that you don’t notice that is ridiculous.
You don’t even get the fact that I’m am being sarcastic!
You said that because Dez Bryant didn’t know a rule, he’s an idiot! Using your logic, that would make someone who purposely tried to gouge someone’s eye out, a thug.
What do you not get about that?
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 19, 2010 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a bad comparison
Brooking’s lack of speed is more than overcome by his years of experience at this level, his understanding of Wade’s system and the degree of talent around him.
"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."
- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Scouting must be so hard...
Spikes’ tape reveals a high-quaiity football player, but his workout suggests he MIGHT have speed issues. It remains to be seen what his NFL career will be like, but it must be so difficult to make the decision. Raphael, and others have listed similar case studies to Spikes that turned out to be good NFL players. But there are also similar case studies where it didn’t turn out – like Andy Katzenmoyer. Dude was a beast in college, but a complete flop as a pro. And to a lesser extent our own Bobby Carpenter. Scouting is so inexact. Good luck to em all.
The guy has a good football name.
“SPIKES”, with that name he has to be good. Bobby Carpenter!! Really!!! We didn’t even draft the best linebacker on Ohio States defence with our first round pick!!!! Come on we all know what that was.
I remember watching the great Jack Spikes.
He was a FB for the Dallas Texans.
Anybody know if he's related to Takeo?
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 19, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Coo. Thanks!
BTB League Consolation Ladder Champ...thought you knew.
by Aaron Novinger on Mar 21, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder what his 20 yard time is
compared to other ILBs. If the ILB has to run 40 yards to make a play you’re in trouble anyway. Speed at the ILB isn’t as big of a deal as being able to fill holes and make plays. I think he would be a steal in the 3rd and good value at #59.
I certainly don't think a 40 judges a LB well.
IMO, while it’s nice to have an ILB that can rush the passer, I think that reaction time and latereal speed has more to do than straight line speed.
John McClain: Welcome to the party, pal!
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Mar 19, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions
+1
At LB you need be a player and everything will take care of itself. Zach Thomas was slow, but he was a player and a damn good one. He didn’t fit in the 3/4 plus he had gotten old when Dallas picked him up. In his prime he was a great ILB. IMO.
Lateral speed and the ability to change directions quickly. Throw in a large dose of instincts and you have a beast.
I think instincts cant be overrated in ILBs and RBs.
KICK ASS every day!!!
Another question is
Is Spikes a smart player? Can he recognize screens, shovels, and sweeps like Dat could?
From the tape I have seen of him, I think he is first round quality, and other teams know that. It would be a miracle if he last to our second round pick.
Golden Tate can believe it's not butter.
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