To trade, perchance to err. Ay, there's the rub.

by ScarletO on Mar 4, 2010 2:43 PM CST

To be or not to be? - Shakespeare

Should I stay or should I go? – The Clash

Paper or plastic? Bob at Kroger’s

These are among the myriad of questions plaguing mankind. There is no one correct answer to these enduring queries.

Paper will reduce plastic in landfills. Plastic helps reduce the number of trees cut down each year.

I should stay at the bar chatting to this very attractive woman. I should go when her really big boyfriend arrives.

To be or not to be – that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And, by opposing, end them.

The NFL draft is approaching fast, so all else is put on hold while the ever encompassing question of whether it is better to trade up or trade down is bandied about. I know where 5Blings stands on the subject (http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/2/5/1297320/nfl-drafting-101).

Here is what I have found:

Were all selected by teams trading up in the 2009 NFL draft. Sanchez led the Jets to the AFC Championship game. Freeman started the last half of the season in Tampa Bay. Maclin was a big play threat in Philadelphia. Oher started at right tackle for the Ravens. Clay Matthews was selected to the Pro Bowl from Green Bay. Eric Wood played for Buffalo.

Alex Mack was the only first round selection made in last April’s draft (Cleveland) by a team trading down. The second round selections all need more time to develop to properly judge the results of the trades. For now, however, the trading seems one-sided in favor of the teams trading up.

In the 2008 NFL draft:

Were all acquired through the draft after their respective team traded up. Ellis has a Super Bowl ring now in New Orleans. Harvey plays for the Jaguars. Albert started for the Chiefs and came on at the end of last season. Joe Flacco has led the Ravens to back-to-back playoff appearances and an AFC championship game. Jeff Otah started for the Panthers. Sam Baker played for Atlanta. Mike Jenkins went to a Pro Bowl last season. Dustin Keller made it to the AFC championship game and was a solid tight end for the Jets.

Jerod Mayo (New England), Duane Brown (Houston), and Gosder Cherilus (Detroit) were all selected by teams that traded down but remained in the first round. John Carlson was acquired by Seattle on a trade up in the second round with the Ravens, but Baltimore drafted Pro Bowler Ray Rice later in that round through that transaction.

Similarly, in 2007, the Jets moved up following a trade with the Panthers to select Darrelle Revis, while Carolina selected Jon Beason. Both players have played in the Pro Bowl.

Jacksonville moved back after trading with Denver, and selected Reggie Nelson, while the Broncos moved up to select Mike Shanahan’s last first round bust, Jarvis Moss. Cleveland also selected an underachieving first round quarterback after trading up to get Brady Quinn.

Dallas moved up after the trade to select Anthony Spencer, who played very well at the conclusion of last season. The 49ers traded their first round pick in 2009 to New England to draft Joe Staley. Ryan Kalil from Carolina and Sidney Rice from Minnesota were a pair of Pro Bowl players selected in the second round after their respective teams traded back.

This is just a small incomplete sampling from the last few years, but it seems that trading up smartly will lead to acquiring a player that provides an immediate impact at least half of the time. Exactly 9 of the 18 players selected in the first round following a trade up either have helped their respective team garner a playoff victory or have made the Pro Bowl.

Consequently, only Jon Beason has made a Pro Bowl (or won a playoff game) as a player acquired with a first round pick after a trade down (20% success rate). Ray Rice, Sidney Rice and Ryan Kalil improve the success rate of trading down, but second round picks seem to require a little more time to develop.

Because of the developmental time necessary, it is difficult to judge the efficacy of the trading down strategy. Examining drafts from earlier in the decade introduces more variables, but should be completed.

Do I have the time to do it, or not? Yet another question…

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Comments

Compelling argument but do you factor in

the point that it is unlikely that the Cowboys will be replacing any of their starters? It’s this issue that I strongly advocate trading back into the second round to afford the team one year to gauge the development of some of the existing understudies in comparison to their starting competition (3 out of 5 offensive linemen), both safeties, and defensive end(s). You trade the assets to move up for a surer fire 1st year starter, but how realistic is it to expect that player to earn enough of the coaches trust to jettison a veteran starter when they are at the cusp of title contention?

by ddthinks on Mar 4, 2010 3:02 PM CST reply actions

Where do you get that initial premise?

If someone comes in as a rookie and plays like Michael Irvin or Ronnie Lott or Anthony Munoz, I’d expect the guy to become the starter. That’s what happens during every training camp. Rookies and other young players blossom and make your aging, overpaid, injury-prone players expendable before the season.

"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Mar 4, 2010 5:41 PM CST up reply actions

In part, we're talking about probabilities.

Even if we want to allow that the 50% vs. 20% success rates are valid, you would have to factor in the other side of the trade. What was the average success rate of the pick received to move up?

And, yes, there may be a first round pick that could beat out Flozell Adams to start at LT. There could also be a 2nd round pick that may accomplish that too. But you’re paying a price in trade that likely means you HAVE to hit on that pick or it may really cost your organization. IMO, any player you pick in the 1st through 3rd round should be expected to be a starter. You’re giving up at least a third rounder to move up even a couple of spots in the 1st round.

I would guess that in nearly every one of the examples that Scarlett cited the team had a gaping hole that they KNEW that 1st round pick would need to step in right away. Even Mike Jenkins had a spot waiting for him as a nickle corner. Right now the Cowboys only really have a need for succession planning and depth. You HOPE one can play so well as to overtake a starter. But, unless the right player drops into a spot where the value is so attractive that you’re willing to cost yourself another potential starter level pick, don’t trade up just for the sake of trading up. This year’s oline class, I don’t believe, will be one where a you see a potential great one falling into the late teens or early twenties.

by ddthinks on Mar 4, 2010 8:05 PM CST up reply actions

The draft strategy depends on the type of team that is being built.

One of the things that is easy to notice is that 29 Pro Bowl players came from the last three drafts. 16 came in the first round. 7 were drafted in the second round. 6 were acquired in rounds after the 2nd round or as rookie free agents.

The numbers bear out that first round picks have an immediate impact on teams. In addition, more than 55% of the Pro Bowlers from the last three drafts were selected in the first round.

In addition, 16 of the 95 first round picks (remember that NE lost their pick) over the last three drafts have gone to the Pro Bowl (almost 17%). In 2007, 12.5% of the second round picks became Pro Bowlers. That is the highest percentage in any round in any one of those three years; and it is still significantly lower than the 17% of the first round picks.

If a GM believes that one player can make a big difference immediately, then the team should go get that player. If Jerry believes that Earl Thomas is the missing link on defense, and getting him would lead to a Super Bowl, the Cowboys should trade up to get him.

by ScarletO on Mar 4, 2010 9:41 PM CST up reply actions

Any team that thinks a rookie is the missing link is in trouble

These things have to be handled with patience and a long-term view toward roster building,

"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Mar 8, 2010 12:18 AM CST up reply actions

I completely disagree (respectfully).

Look at past drafts and you see rookies making significant contributions immediately. Ben Roethlisberger took the Steelers to the AFC Championship game only to lose to one of the great New Engalnd Patriots teams; and that was as a quarterback.

I do not have time to verify this, but I believe that Terry Glenn was a rookie the season that New England made it to the Super Bowl. Dallas drafted Tony Dorsett (traded up to get the missing ingredient) and won the Super Bowl against the Broncos.

Recently, the Ravens drafted Flacco and made the AFC Championship game. Sanchez had the same effect on the Jets last season.

There are other factors (such as new coches and other players) that contribute to the respective teams’ success, but those specific examples involve quarterbacks: one of the most influencial positions on the gridiron.

by ScarletO on Mar 8, 2010 1:07 PM CST up reply actions

I think we are talking past each other

There are multiple instances where rookies made a huge impact on the team’s performance. That’s not in question.

What IS in question is whether a team on the verge of being elite works under the assumption that they are a rookie impact player away from being the champion. I don’t believe GM’s think in those terms mainly because of how few rookies actually become hits (to use Fighter15’s parlance) versus misses.

Case in point, Dallas is not going into this draft thinking they are a Bruce Campbell, a Golden Tate or a Nate Allen away from winning the Super Bowl. Hell, take a look at Dallas’ draft from last year. Do you think they believed they were a Jason Williams away from winning it all? While every team wants significant contributions from their rookie class, the draft is more about the future than immediate returns.

"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Mar 10, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions

I disagree

If you use a player who has an cloudy future, let’s use Telly B for argument’s sake, on your team but has high value to say, the Bengals, they could be used as a chip to help advance your pick.

Again, there are puts and takes and Jerry has shown little in the way of skillfully navigating up in the draft over the years, but the position is highly defensible.

"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Mar 8, 2010 12:22 AM CST up reply actions

Appreciate the plug, Chandus

I think your research just continues to underscore the validity of the idea that trading down and using a quantitative, carpet-bombing approach to the draft isn’t a strategy that produces meaningful value. I think last year’s draft is going to end up providing evidence in support of my contention.

Dallas needs to have a group of players in mind and see how the draft progresses. If a guy like a Bulaga were to be there at #17, why would we not trade a Choice or a Bennett and our #1 to move up and get THAT guy?

There’s a lot about the NFL draft that is artful rather than scientific. It takes men with not just good football minds, but good football instincts to create a consistently high-performing war room. Based on Jerry’s full body of work without Jimmy, I question whether Dallas has either.

"Emotion is highly overrated in football. My wife Corky is emotional as hell but can't play football worth a damn."

- John McKay, the first coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

by 5Blings on Mar 4, 2010 3:47 PM CST reply actions