Thriving in Hell: How the Cowboys Won the '05 Draft
by Rafael Vela on Apr 19, 2010 8:32 PM CDT
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I'm sick of running through scenarios and mock drafts. I've been ready for the real thing since last week. In the meantime, here's a scary story which demonstrates the incredible degrees of hype and overkill associated with drafts. Most importantly, it demonstrates how far drafting lives from science. Read on, but stop eating before you do.
The current Sporting News Draft 2010 guide carries a feature on the star-crossed 2005 draft, considered by many draft veterans the worst of the decade. The stories author referred to it as "hell," noting the abysmal performances of the players drafted in the top ten -- Alex Smith, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Pacman Jones, Antrell Rolle, Carlos Rogers and Mike Williams comprised it. He goes on to note the star-crossed fortunes of picks like Matt Jones, Mike Williams, Maurice Clarett, Darrent Williams and Chris Henry.
Then-Texans GM Charlie Casserley is quoted as saying that all drafts are not created equal, and that the '05 crop was considered weak in its day. I would counter Casserley by pointing out that all teams pick from the same pool, and those which manage to excel when everybody else is taking a mulligan can gain a vital edge over their competitors.
With five years to offer perspective, we can safety conclude that 2005 was a dismal draft crop. However, a small number of teams like the New York Giants and San Diego Chargers stood out. No team did did better in this "draft hell" than out own Dallas Cowboys, who caught up to the rest of the league by acing this unfair test.
I've set the bar very low for this chart. In order to be counted as a starter, you have to have started for the team that drafted you in eight or more games for two consecutive seasons. Note how many teams failed to meet this meager standard:
(S-S-O-T stands for Starters Still on Team)
| Team | Starters | S-S-O-T | Top Draftees |
| Arizona | 1 | 0 | Antrel Rolle |
|
Atlanta |
3 | 2 | Roddy White, Jonathan Babineaux |
| Baltimore | 1 | 1 | Mark Clayton |
| Buffalo | 1 | 1 | Roscoe Parrish |
| Carolina | 1 | 1 | Thomas Davis |
| Chicago | 2 | 0 | Cedric Benson, Kyle Orton |
| Cincinnati | 1 | 0 | Chris Henry |
| Cleveland | 2 | 0 | Braylon Edwards |
| Dallas | 6 | 4 | Demarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, Marion Barber, Chris Canty, Marcus Spears |
| Denver | 2 | 0 | Darrent Williams |
| Detroit | 1 | 0 | Shaun Cody |
| Green Bay | 3 | 3 | Aaron Rodgers, Nick Collins |
| Houston | 1 | 0 | C.C. Brown |
| Indianapolis | 2 | 1 | Kelvin Haydin |
| Jacksonville | 3 | 0 | Khalif Barnes, Gerald Sensabaugh |
| Kansas City | 2 | 2 | Derrick Johnson |
| Miami | 3 | 1 | Ronnie Brown, Channing Crowder |
| Minnesota | 2 | 0 | Troy Williamson |
| New England | 4 | 2 | Logan Mankins, Nick Kaczur, Matt Cassell, Ellis Hobbs |
| New Orleans | 2 | 1 | Jamaal Brown |
| Giants | 3 | 3 | Justin Tuck, Corey Webster, Brandon Jacobs |
| Jets | 2 | 0 | Kerry Rhodes |
| Oakland | 2 | 1 | Kirk Morrison, Fabian Washington |
| Philadelphia | 4 | 3 | Trent Cole, Mike Patterson, Todd Herremens |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 2 | Heath Miller, Chris Kemoeatu |
| San Diego | 4 | 4 | Shawne Merriman, Vincent Jackson, Darren Sproles, Luis Castillo |
| San Francisco | 3 | 3 | Frank Gore, Alex Smith, David Baas |
| Seattle | 3 | 3 | Lofa Tatupu, Chris Spencer, Leroy Hill |
| St. Louis | 3 | 3 | Alex Barron, O.J. Atogwe |
| Tampa Bay | 3 | 2 | Barrett Ruud, Cadillac Williams |
| Tennessee | 4 | 3 | Michael Roos, David Stewart, Bo Scaife |
| Washington | 2 | 1 | Carlos Rodgers, Jason Campbell |
Note how many teams have little to nothing to show for that year's effort:
| Teams with no starters from their '05 draft | 10 |
| Teams with 1 starter from their '05 draft | 8 |
| Teams with 2 starters from their '05 draft | 5 |
| Teams with 3 starters from their '05 draft | 7 |
| Teams with 4 starters from their '05 draft | 2 |
Dallas climbed back to respectability on this draft. It finished 6-10 in 2004 but hasn't finished below 9-7 since. No other team can match the six current starters the Cowboys scouts found that April. Dallas built the much of its defensive front seven, getting a complete line in Chris Canty, Jay Ratliff and Marcus Spears. No player from that draft has out-performed Demarcus Ware, the game's premier pass rusher. Even a "wasted pick" like 2nd rounder Kevin Burnett starts today for the Chargers.
The Cowboys know the flip side of this scenario. The Dallas front office flunked the hyped 1983 draft, which was clotted with Hall of Famers and All Pros. Dallas tried in vain to trade up for John Elway, then passed on Dan Marino in favor of Jim Jeffcoat. In the second round, it overlooked DT Bill Pickel and took Mike Walter, who was cut in training camp. The Cowboys passed on DE Charles Mann in the 3rd and picked the forgettable DE Brian Caldwell instead.
A draft that could have added a young quarterback and rebuilt the aging defense line instead left Tom Landry's jet running without fuel. The team missed the playoffs the following season and made the playoffs just one more time before Landry was replaced.
Thursday's draft has been rated by some as similar in quality to '83's, at least in the early rounds. Another performance like '05's could put the Cowboys back on top. Another like '83's would be too painful to imagine.
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ah, technicalities!
Yes, he was canned. I was trying to be gentle with the man, bis being dead and all.
The best way to succeeding in any draft is getting VALUE
Most people think it is just taking BPA. It’s not. Find value with your picks. That may mean taking BPA, trading up, trading for more picks, or even trading for a pick in next year’s draft. But one must look for value.
2009 BTB Fantasy Champ... Deal with it
Wasn't Rob Pettiti drafted in 2005 as well?
Uh, never mind…
Was Jeffcoat over Marino really that bad of a pick in 1983?
Rmember
Marino had a “Character Flag” in that draft. That’s why he fell. He had a rep as a coke head
Yep
suspected pot use
Anything said above is purely the opinion of AFB unless said otherwise.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Apr 19, 2010 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions
maybe
but he was the top player on their board when they picked.
It’s funny, the offered Denver Danny what and two #1s for Elway but wouldn’t take Marino straight up.
Ouch.
Danny what?
now there’s a Freudian slip.
Danny White
Dallas was going to take Montana in the 3rd in 1979,
but SF drafted him before Dallas’ pick and the rest is history.
In an interview Willie was ask if he was thinking about retiring. He paused for a moment, smiled and replied " I play music and golf, which one do you think I need to give up"?
What might have been....
Anything said above is purely the opinion of AFB unless said otherwise.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Apr 19, 2010 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions
What might not have been.
Maybe Landry isn’t fired, and the 1990’s dynasty doesn’t eventuate.
RW is the opposite of WR. Coincidence? I think not.
by aussie_cowboy on Apr 20, 2010 4:34 AM CDT up reply actions
He didn't start for two years
I thought of making him the 7th, but he was a starter by default, not on merit.
No, Pettiti was already on the roster, wasn't he?
That Jay Ratliff int he 7th round pick is one of the greatest picks of the past 20 years. It still astounds me. A two-time All Pro at one of the toughest positions int he NFL to fill, and we got him in the 7th!! Whoo!!!
The only thing that beats it is signing a multiple Pro Bowl QB (Tony) and an All-Pro WR (Miles) as UFAs!!
Did we get Tony and Miles in 2005 too? Or was Tony the year before? If they were part of that crop as well, then I’d put that down as possibly the greatest draft year in Cowboys history.
Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.
Ah, just checked
Romo was 2004. So we don’t credit for him in that year. And Miles was 2006. So no luck there.
Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.
Petitti was I believe a 6th or 7th round pick in 2005 draft
Romo signed as an undrafted free agent in 2003 (also not a bad draft with Newman, Witten and James), while Austin was an undrafted free agent in 2006.
You don't hear this much
but taking a player that fits your system is one of the biggest keys to success. Even if he may not be the highest rated player at his position, if his skill set lends itself to your system, and what he will be asked to do, he stands a much better chance of success.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
+1
Not BPA but BP for your system. That player has the best chance of starting and contributing.
A great example of that would be the eagle’s Brian Westbrook (3rd round). Not a great RB in the traditional set but great receiving RB which fit there system perfectly. I’m glad he is finally gone.
All I want for this year is the next Darren Woodson. Is that to much to ask? Probably but he is out there.
Woodson is a Hall of Famer!!!
by I'm a Cowboy on Apr 19, 2010 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep
Raf posted on this some time ago but you don’t hear nearly enough about it.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Thus, ixnay on the Bruce Campbell, Taylor Mays picks.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
What sure fire NFL legend do you expect at #27?
Missing on a high reward/risk pick at the bottom of the first stings but it won’t set the Boys back 5 years. I would be very happy with either.
I think Wolf's point is
that Campbell may be more a zone blocking scheme lineman and Mays doesn’t fit what they want in a FS.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Well Campbell is 314 pounds (one pound heavier than Free)
and I don’t think anyone would really expect him to walk in and supplant either of our tackles right away. I definitely think that if the Cowboys take Campbell it would be with the intention of developing him to be a down the road starter meaning that the emphasis on what system he came from would be lessened.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Apr 20, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
From what I've heard (and everyone has an opinion)
he seems to be better on the move than as a power guy. But they could be wrong too.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Dan Marino was picked with the 27th pick
Just saying…
by One.Cool.Customer on Apr 20, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
risky picks shouldn't be taken in the first round
You do that in the mid to later rounds, in the first round you go safe and clean everytime.
In Romo we Trust
If you look at my original statement
I was talking about players that have the correct skill set for our scheme. Dunkman already spoke for Campbell, and in our defense we need a cover safety at FS. I do not believe Taylor Mays is in the top 5 of cover safeties. I am looking forward to a trade-down if those are our choices, and there is a good chance they will be our choices. In that case I’d rather drop down into the high 2nd and pick up Vlad Ducasse, and perhaps Major Wright at 59. Would you rather have Ducasse and Wright, or Taylor Mays?
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
It's not like Jeffcoat was a bust
He was a darn good defensive end. And White had just led the Cowboys to 3 straight NFC Championship games. Hindsight’s 20/20 I guess.
I’m still upset about letting the defending Super Bowl champ 49ers sneak ahead of Dallas in 1985 to snag Jerry Rice…
Uh, David
they offered White to Denver to try and get Elway.
they were looking for a QB.
Hindsight, schmindsight.
When this is “the best draft ever” and all you have to show for it is Jim Jeffcoat, you flunked.
I'm sorry I keep saying Denver
they offered him to Baltimore.
That's kind of funny....
considering he ended up going and playing baseball.
Anything said above is purely the opinion of AFB unless said otherwise.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Apr 19, 2010 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I bet he wouldn't have if the Boys had gotten him.
Anything said above is purely the opinion of AFB unless said otherwise.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Apr 19, 2010 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions
He played baseball so that the Colts would trade him to somebody else
Dallas made the Colts the best offer, but Ernie Accorsi was refusing every deal.
The Broncos got smart and went over his head to Bob Irsay. The old drunk accepted their deal and ordered Accorsi to deal with them, rather than taking the best offer he could get.
That’s how teams are built sometimes.
What did Denver give for him?
Anything said above is purely the opinion of AFB unless said otherwise.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Apr 19, 2010 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Raf was really taking a shot at Jeffcoat.
Just showing a trend that they missed on alot of superior players.
Anything said above is purely the opinion of AFB unless said otherwise.
by The Immortal Iron Fist AKA AFB on Apr 19, 2010 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
exactly
they got one quality player from “the best draft ever”
The Bears got eight, I think and built the backbone of their ’85 Super bowl team
Ditka said as much
On the NFL Network show, The Top 10 Drafts of all time, the Bears 83 draft was ranked No. 1, and Ditka said without that draft the 85 Bears never exist. Cowboys scored the No. 2 draft of all time, but it was actually counting the 91 and 92 drafts.
When I die I want to go peacefully in my sleep like my Grandfather -- not screaming like the passengers in his car.
They also jumped in front of Dallas and took J.J. Stokes one year
Sometimes it works, others it doesn’t. I have VERY distinct memories of how they were praised for being so smart with that one. I wonder what supermarket Stokes is working in now?
That's certainly the first I heard about the Cowboys trying to get Elway in 1983
If true, fascinating. Where’d you hear about that Raf? I thought I was up on my Cowboys knowledge but never heard of THAT trade proposal.
I’m just saying the Cowboys, for all their wretched drafts from 1978 on, could have done worse in passing on Marino than to get Jim Jeffcoat and his 94.5 sacks. Kind of ironic (or just lucky) that they didn’t completely eff up the 1983 draft. Came close, though…
Ahh, Im ready for things to heat up too
first, the schedule comes out tomorrow.
Then, the draft.
Then, QB schools and mini-camps.
Our thirst is going to be quelled very soon and all the way into early July, then it will be like a ghost town in the NFL until camp begins. Of course dallas will start camp earlier than all b/c they play in the HOF game.
A word of warning though. Rafael is feeding you snippets of his powerful cowboys drug to keep you coming back. He and his BTB brethren will have you foaming at the mouth come Thursday.
So, with that in mind, dont expect a “rock the world” draft. There is no reason to think it wont be a good one, maybe even a great one. But some fans get themselves SO worked up over this, that they throw a hissy when a trade down is made, or when a player they didnt expect gets picked.
Manage your expectations friends. Just b/c this draft doesn’t blow your hair back RIGHT AWAY doesn’t mean it wont be a good one.
Well now for some reason I'm nervous.
We drafted well in a crappy draft. We blew what was considered a great draft. This draft is considered a great draft..ugh. Doctor Jones..give me relief.
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
Yeah, don't let the 1983 draft throw you
Totally different staff. Go off the recent history.
Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.
Take heart Benthere
The Cowboys blew every draft from 1978 to 1987, and 1983 was just another bad year in the middle of that run.
Jerry had his own dry run of drafts from 1995 to 2001, with the occasional hit. But the Cowboys have done well the last few years (not judging 2009 draft yet), so I have some confidence that they have the decisionmakers in place and the right strategy to once again snag 2-4 quality players (starters) this week.
Dallas Cowboys drafts from 1995 to 2001
Brace yourself, and then check out the list:
Just a truly brutal run. Jerry has really improved in recent years, learning from Parcells and also agreeing to listen more to those around him, like our talented scouting directors and Stephen Jones, who seems to be very capable.
Larry Allen benched 700 pounds. That is Leonard Davis times two.
Note no offensive skill position players of any note whatsoever
during that seven-year span. Seven seasons getting no help at all through the draft! Some decent picks are sprinkled throughout (maybe a total of 5) but that is it. Insanely bad. Like a monkey picking random names from a hat could have done as well.
Geez
That is flat out disgusting…and I just ate lunch.
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher
by Suicide Prince on Apr 20, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
MY BRAIN! IT BURNS! IT BURNS!
by Blue Eyed Devil on Apr 20, 2010 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Quincy was a miracle?
There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem - once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit. ~Al Gallagher
by Suicide Prince on Apr 20, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Jerry has demonstrated one thing consistently of late
he listens to his people. If you surround yourself with quality people, this is a very sound policy.
Jerry has some very good personnel evaluators, including Wade.
There is no reason to be nervous. Be confident, just dont get ahead of yourself with expectations.
I;m not expecting to be excited about the draft this year
but hopefully they’ll surprise me.
FREE THE OGLETREE!!!
Who told him to make the trade for Roy.
They should be fired.
by Sharksbreath on Apr 20, 2010 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Thanks guys..
I was slipping into darkness there for a moment. All better now, faith restored.
"The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."
Looking at the Cowboys situation
I’m willing to take the chance on Taylor Mays.
Young Roy Williams was crazy. I swear he was never the same after he started messing with the girl Kelly from Destiny’s child.
Anyway.
Only the Giants won a Superbowl this decade without a top safety.
You need a safety offenses fear.
It’s the only thing this defense is missing.
Superbowl winning safeties the last decade.
Sharper 1,Lynch 1, Woodson 1, Polamalu 2, Harrison 3, Sanders 1 “Colts win with him, lose without him”.
Taylor Mays sparking fear in WR’s could be just what we need. If not go get Sharper. .
One way or the other you need one. I’m open to all ideas.
Sharper, Lynch and Harrison had all been in the NFL for at least a decade when they got their rings.
Woodson was an All-Pro corner who slid over to safety late in his career after suffering devastating knee injuries and had been in the league 14 years. Should the Cowboys trade for Ty Law and slide him to one of the safeties? Drafting an elite safety isn’t some kind of automatic Willy Wonka ticket to a d@mn Super Bowl. Also could there really be three safeties that good in one draft: With Berry being the most “can’t miss” prospect and Earl Thomas having a far better season than him a year ago, what are the odds that Mays it the standout of this draft’s safety class?
“Sparking fear” in wide receivers isn’t the end all be all because Roy Williams certainly did that with his special tackling method that ended multiple players’ seasons.
By the way, it was 2nd year corner Tracy Porter who was by far and way the Saints postseason MVP and not the magic veteran Sharper.
Safety has to play run support too
How will Berry, Thomas, Allan or any others stuff Brondon Jacobs? Maybe Chad Jones, or Kam Chancellor but they run closer to Roy Williams, Taylor Mays has legit 4.4 recovery speed.
Now that I think about it, if Taylor is on the board at #27, he should be the choice. There won’t be anybody else with a similar skill set later in this draft.
If we have to rely on our FS to stop Jacobs consistently
then our defense isn’t worth a crap any ways. I don’t care if Mays was 240 and ran a 4.1, the dude is worthless as a safety if he can’t cover anyone.
In Romo we Trust
The schedule comes out Tonight
I don’t mean to go off topic but the NFL will release the new schedule tonight. Why isn’t anyone talking about it???
I here Dallas will open in Washington.
Late game on FOX.
In an interview Willie was ask if he was thinking about retiring. He paused for a moment, smiled and replied " I play music and golf, which one do you think I need to give up"?
it seems like
a lot of teams go through similar ups and downs. I looked at NE and Indy and they seemed the same way. some years they just whiff on everything and get some marginal players and some years they ace everything.
most years though good drafting teams hit on some players and miss on others. that seems to be normal. bad teams like oakland and detroit miss every year. year after year, specially with their 1st and 2nd round picks needing to be impact players. all you need is one impact player every other year and your team is going to be good.
Mays has stone hips
worse then a week old stiff. He cannot cover anyone who has any quickness at all.
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