Who Wins Games for the Cowboys: Offense or Defense?

may I therefore direct you to ColdHardFootballFact’s World Famous Cheerleader Thread – 80 pages of of the finest [site decorum].

The benefit of stat-based analyses is that you can sometimes bend or even willfully ignore reality. Take the loss in the stadium opener to the Giants: In the method described above, the Defense lost the game because while the offense put up a lot of points, the defense failed to prevent them – but in reality it was probably Romo, and by extension the offense, not the defense, that lost the game by throwing 3 INTs.

Similarly, the impact of STs (TDs, FGs, blocked FGs, field posotion) is completely ignored in this analysis – I use two data sets, points scored and points allowed and compare them to two team units, offense and defense. No room for STs, coaching decisions, strength of opponent etc. etc.

things have taken a decidedly metaphysical twist here.

Agree on the turnovers, already pointed it out in one of the comments above. Also, a good point on the relative rankings – should have thought about that myself.

The assymetrical WOA results are most likely a result of my choice of scoring brackets. I chose the points brackets by starting with one TD and a FG, then successively added a TD on top to get 5 points brackets. They looked fairly symmetrical in terms of total numbers: 373 – 441 – 515 – 391 – 328, but they aren’t exact enough. I’d probably have to get an even distribution of games in all brackets for the assymmetrical WOA to disappear, but that’s too much work for now. Until then, the relative ranking is a pretty good approximation.

You need to be good in phases of the game. In some games, maybe a certain phase will carry the other, but over all you need to be good in all phases to win consistently.

You could probably give the Cowboys offense another L for the Chiefs game, as they failed to reach 21 in regulation.

This one is especially striking:

3. We were NEVER blown out of a game, or even had both the Defense and Offense lose on the same day. But there’s a dark side to that story: in TEN GAMES one of the two units under-performed. That’s hardly the consistency you need to win it all.

The closest thing to a blowout was Green Bay, which was 17 until the late TD. Nothing like ’08. That signifies this team is tired of those meltdowns. The arse-whooping in the playoffs ought to inspire them even more so to keep games close. With the talent and experienced relationships between coaches and personnel, I would expect this team to improve on the in-game adjustments this season. Fingers crossed!

Based on that trend I would expect them to trend downward again from last year. The offense should be more consistent, and also the defense. Romo has yet another weapon in Dez, plus Felix will get more touches, and Bennett is taking football seriously for the first time in his life.

On defense we’re replacing an ineffective starter with a better athlete. Someone that Wade feels is more suited to play his style of defense. I think Wade is already working on his gameplans, and we haven’t even started training camp. The way he’s talking, Ball has already been penciled in at safety because he brings an element to the defense that Wade feels has been missing. I would also expect better play from the DE spot this season. There’s a whole lot of guys there that are motivated to get paid.

You never can tell with these over-seas recruits :)

Parcell’s problem is that that was a great strategy in 1988 or 1990.
It doesn’t work today, there are too many edges given to the offense these days.

Not to mention his little head games don’t work in the modern era of free agency and 24 press coverage.
He did help bring some ‘organization’ to this organization, though, and get the scouting under control. Thank goodness the drafting’s been better lately, because that’s how you live or die in the NFL!

The reason it is significant or at least worth a post is because on a large scale it is very interesting to track winning versus points scored and points against (regardless of the methods of obtaining those points) for the Cowboys and every team in the NFL (and then of course to find the average to compare against). Through this model we can further examine how the Cowboys’ tendencies match up against the league’s. Is it perfect? No it sure isn’t. That doesn’t however make it “meaningless.” It simply is an interesting numerical comparison to lend some insight outside of the subjective realm that we usually deal in on this blog.

Grades can be just as manipulated as stats.

Is it me or has the criticism of articles and FPosts fueled the debates in the comments section more than actual debates on the topic at hand? I can see challenging a premise every once in a while, but nearly every single published piece here lately has somebody saying shoulda, woulda, coulda.

“Change a word. Change a stat. Look this up instead of that.”

Are the Pulitzer nominations coming up or something? I am not saying everybody has to agree with every post, but saying “this is meaningless” in the subject line takes the debate of the content away and focuses the comments onto critically analyzing the writer’s article vs. those defending it.

The high degree of participation and level of football-related passion for the Cowboys is what drove me to this blog and why I have stuck to it. The comments section is the lifeforce. When I read other comments sections in other blogs, they are full of criticism towards the writers and/or their articles. Also, FanPosts and FanShots are a unique aspect. Got a good idea? Try typing it out instead of telling somebody else what you would have rather seen in their article.

Not trying to pick on you, J, but I’ve just noticed this type of criticism a lot lately and I’m hoping this is just some offseason phase or something.

And by the way, any scores count towards the defense in MOST formulas, not just the one atop.

We can all kick our shoes off and feel like home here!

and no worries Jayddrew, no offense taken. Here are a couple of random thoughts about our site and the role each one of us has in it:

BTB is much more about the members than it is about the front page writers. Sure, I first joined because of the great stuff that Raf and Dave were pumping out with an amazing ease, but I got engaged in the site because of the great debates that I wanted to contribute to. In the end, the frontpagers and some others on this board help keep things moving along and ultimately serve the membership.

The members are the driving force of this blog and the front page stories are usually very good and probably some of the best Cowboys stuff out there, but the comments and comment threads they generate are the heart and soul of the site. This is particularly evident in the fanpost and fanshot section which is basically run by the members and generates at least as much discussion as the front page.

Accessibility is a key differentiator for this and other SB nation sites. If you like what you read (and in the few and far-in-between cases that you don’t) you have a direct line to the author. More often than not, the author will respond to you. That is a level of accessibility you will not get with any type of mainstream media. At the same time, that accessibility also requires respect for the author, even more for the author of a fanpost than a frontpager.

This is often something that new members still have to learn, as most of the boards they have come here from are hate-spewing boards of other media empires. Around here, we enjoy a good debate, we love heated arguments, but we do not tolerate any type of personal attacks.

Our members here are some of the most knowledgeable and witty fans you’ll ever meet, and each single comment are held to a high standard: Argue your point well, be insightful or entertain us – but don’t bore us.