Playoff Prediction Primer: Who Will Be the Rebound Teams in the NFL This Year?
by One.Cool.Customer on Aug 27, 2010 7:00 PM CDT
in Dallas Cowboys General
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As we are nearing the end of a physically punishing pre-season and approaching the start of the regular season, many a pigskin pundit's pencil is being sharpened right now as they start writing articles with their playoff participant picks.
Some of these lists will basically be a rehash of last year's playoff picture, and for good measure they'll throw in a team or two that missed the playoffs last year.
The more polished pigskin prognosticators will take into account the "churn" factor in compiling their lists: By now it's been pretty well established and it's become common knowledge that the playoff field churns by about 50% from year to year. This effectively means that six teams which made the playoffs last year probably won't make the playoffs again this year.
However, what few predictions take into account is the "rebound" factor.
The "rebound" factor is a phenomenon that has been chronicled by Rafael Vela for a couple of years now. Rafael found that this decade, an average of about four teams that had a losing record in the previous season made the playoffs in the following season.
Don't believe it? Below is the full list of the Churn Factor and the Rebound Factor in the playoffs since 1992. Why 1992? Because that's when the league moved to the current 12-team playoff format.
| Playoff Participants by Year, 1992-2009 | ||||||||
| "Churn" Factor teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before |
"Rebound" Factor teams with losing records the year before |
|||||||
| Year | # Teams | Teams | # Teams | Teams | ||||
| 1992 | 7 | KC, Mia, Min, Phi, Pit, SD, SF | 2 | Pit, SD | ||||
| 1993 | 5 | Den, Det, GB, NYG, Oak | 3 | Det, NYG, Oak | ||||
| 1994 | 5 | Chi, Cle, Mia, NE, SD | 3 | Chi, Cle, NE | ||||
| 1995 | 4 | Atl, Buf, Ind, Phi | 3 | Atl, Buf, Phi | ||||
| 1996 | 5 | Car, Den, Jac, Min, NE | 3 | Car, Jac, NE | ||||
| 1997 | 5 | Det, KC, Mia, NYG, TB | 3 | Det, NYG, TB | ||||
| 1998 | 5 | Ari, Atl, Buf, Dal, NYJ | 4 | Ari, Atl, Buf, Dal | ||||
| 1999 | 7 | Det, Ind, Sea, StL, TB, Ten, Was | 4 | Det, Ind, StL, Was | ||||
| 2000 | 6 | Bal, Den, NO, NYG, Oak, Phi | 4 | Den, NO, NYG, Phi | ||||
| 2001 | 6 | Chi, GB, NE, NYJ, Pit, SF | 3 | Chi, NE, SF | ||||
| 2002 | 5 | Atl, Cle, Ind, NYG, Ten | 5 | Atl, Cle, Ind, NYG, Ten | ||||
| 2003 | 8 | Bal, Car, Dal, Den, KC, NE, Sea, StL | 5 | Bal, Car, Dal, Sea, StL | ||||
| 2004 | 5 | Atl, Min, NYJ, Pit, SD | 4 | Atl, NYJ, Pit, SD | ||||
| 2005 | 7 | Car, Chi, Cin, Jac, NYG, TB, Was | 5 | Car, Chi, NYG, TB, Was | ||||
| 2006 | 7 | Bal, Dal, KC, NO, NYJ, Phi, SD | 4 | Bal, NO, NYJ, Phi | ||||
| 2007 | 6 | GB, Jac, Pit, TB, Ten, Was | 2 | TB, Was | ||||
| 2008 | 7 | Atl, Ari, Bal, Car, Mia, Min, Phi | 4 | Atl, Bal, Car, Mia | ||||
| 2009 | 6 | Cin, Dal, GB, NE, NO, NYJ | 2 | Cin, GB | ||||
The Churn Factor data comes courtesy of Bob Sturm who compiled it in this post on his blog.
The average churn since 1992 has been 5.9 teams, over the last decade it's been 6.3 teams. The total average rebound has been 3.5 and has moved up to an average of 3.8 in the last ten years.
2007 and 2009 have been off years for the Rebound Factor, with only two teams making the playoffs who had losing records the previous year. But in defense of the Rebound Factor, in 2009, the Saints and Chargers made the payoffs with an 8-8 record the previous year. In 2007, a staggering five teams made the payoffs with an 8-8 record the previous year (Jaguars, Steelers, Giants, Titans, Packers).
The biggest rebound since 1992 was achieved by the 2008 Dolphins, who had compiled a 1-15 record in 2007 and reached the playoffs in 2008 with a 11-5 record. The Cowboys have rebounded into the playoffs two times: 1998 & 2003. Of the 63 teams that rebounded from a losing record into the playoffs since 1992, here's how many wins they racked up in the previous season:
| Rebound teams: Wins in season prior to playoff season | ||||||||
| Wins | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| # Teams | - - | 1 | - - | 3 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 20 |
The three 3-win teams in this table to rebound into the playoffs were the '99 Colts as well as the '00 & '06 Saints.
Now that you're fully familiar with the Rebound Factor, which teams will you pick as your rebound teams this year, and why?
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Guys in Tn
including Frank wycheck say that team copmes from the nfc east this year, predict the Cowboys to go 8-8 if they stay healthy.
don’t shoot the messenger.
how do you listen
To those guys Norm? I can’t stand that morning crew.I didn’t think they talked about anything beside Titan and Vol football
by Perry the Platypus on Aug 27, 2010 8:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Frank does a thing called 4 downs
He goes team by team (one a day) and gives his thoughts, picked the cowboys to go 8-8.
by Musiccitynorm on Aug 28, 2010 6:32 AM CDT up reply actions
... and you get the small toy for tryin'
:)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
by DalaiLuke on Aug 27, 2010 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sawadee Ka
Are you still following the Boys from Thailand?
Sawadee Krop ... (Ka is for the girls, remember? :)
Now in the states, enjoying all the NFL coverage (forgot how much I missed that) … but back in Thailand by October or so. If the Cowboys win it all this year, we should throw a BTB party in Phuket :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Here's how I see it
you have to look at the 2008 playoff teams that faltered in 2009- and see if there were extenuating circumstances.
For that reason, I think Miami (tougher schedule), Carolina and the Giants are going to be teams that didn’t have winning records and make the playoffs this year. All three will be wild card winners, Miami possibly winning the AFC East.
Carolina suffered through Delhomme and the Giants revolted against their D Coordinator… i expect both to improve on their 8-8 record by 2 games.
2009 BTB Part Deux Fantasy League Champion. 'Kill Everybody 13-2'. KDP knows football.
"Yeah, he's good. Dez Bryant is smooth, fast and has velcro hands.... He's going to give his QBs a giant comfort zone; if you throw it in his vicinity, odds are very good that he'll catch it."- Rafeal Vela, 1st day of 2010 training camp.
The possibilities this year
Dolphins 7-9
Bills 6-10
Browns 5-11
Jaguars 7-9
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 4-12
Redskins 4-12
Bears 7-9
Lions 2-14
Buccaneers 3-13
Seahawks 5-11
Rams 1-15
I go with Seahawks and Raiders!
me too
seahawks take div its the miracle thing of a new coach new system.. like when parcells first got here or ken whisenhunt in card for a few examples
raiders take wild card at worst!
Really?! Really?!
hmmmmmm
that sounds like the redskins this year
by Musiccitynorm on Aug 28, 2010 6:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I like the
Dolphins, Raiders, Bears and..well thats it. I can’t see the Rams, Seahawks, Bucs, Lions, Chiefs, Jaguars, Browns or Bills making it.
The redskins are the only other team with a shot, and I don’t like them much either.
Outside the losing teams, I like the Giants and Texans, though I wouldn’t be shocked if the TItans or Falcons made a run to grab a wildcard
Titans and Seahawks
My picks are because of good coaching, RB & QB in Tenn, and poor expectations from AZ in the other… No more Curt Warner..nuf said.
Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.
Can't Stand Pete Either
The “Good” Coach is in Tenn, and I saw Pete fail in the NFL before. I do like the Seahawk’s QB though and hope he can stay healthy.
Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.
Things'll be different now that his players are getting paid.
Oh… wait…
"Only the strong survive, but the strong still get their ass whipped." -Nick Saban
If the Seahawks win they might have to give the Vince Lombardi back.
And Miles has the other Bush Trophy…except she shaved…on no, I’m not going there.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
My best guesses
History says 4-6 teams last in the playoffs last season are out the next.
NFC
Cowboys – In
Eagles – Out, NY Giants take their place
Packers – In
Cardinals – Out, 49ers take their place
Vikings – Out, Panthers take their place
Saints – In
AFC
Colts – In
Chargers – In
Ravens – In
Jets – Out, Raiders take their place
Patriots – Out, Dolphins take their place
Bengals – Out, Texans take their place
Let the games begin!
I think the Falcons have a better shot than the Panthers. But I don’t see the Vikings missing the playoffs, even with backup WRs and a 40 year old QB. The 49ers are definitely a sexy pick with that D and with Kurt Warner gone.
by speedmetal on Aug 28, 2010 2:01 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Raiders will the West.
They still go 8-8 or 9-7, but the rest of the field is just… awful.
"Only the strong survive, but the strong still get their ass whipped." -Nick Saban
49ers and Giants are shoe ins
IMO these two are primed to get into the Playoffs this year. The Giants will have the harder time this year with the Beasts from the East to contend with. Their D has to get healthy, hopefully Dallas can keep this team in check.
The Niners have the easier division and an uprising staunch D. Alex Smith looks like a real QB so far this preseason. Has he finally reached the point of “getting it?” We may meet these guys again in the Wildcard Playoffs.
The Boys 8-8? With the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL, it’s possible. They have to remain healthy to get in. The Oline has to produce or else this will become reality, unless the D finally gets the turnovers like the Saints had last year.
by torchindefenses on Aug 27, 2010 8:36 PM CDT reply actions
dont see how they're shoe ins
though i wouldnt be surprised to see either team in the playoffs. I do think the 9ers will win their division if they can get consistant QB play, but wouldnt call it a lock.
I'd go with the PhonyNiners
but as Parcells used to say, you can’t dial 1-800-Quarterback. Therefore I take the Redskins and the Dolphins.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
haha
the dollphins and Parcells have Henne, thats no answer to QB
by Musiccitynorm on Aug 28, 2010 6:35 AM CDT up reply actions
he'll be better than Alex Smith
But that’s like saying he’s the worlds tallest midget.
Ich bin ein Berliner--JFK
lol
Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!
by scotscowboyfan on Aug 28, 2010 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but they still have Pennington.
And he’s healthy again. I expect him to take over by week 3. With all the Chads hanging around at QB I’m expecting more voter fraud in Florida.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
49ers and Redskins
And yes, I am already worried about week one. We barely beat them last year!
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
According to my dartboard
Raiders and Niners
The new mantra: No more injuries. No more injuries. Everybody now: NO MORE INJURIES!
What's up with all the Raider love?
I don’t buy it. They’re not making the playoffs anytime soon.
by speedmetal on Aug 28, 2010 1:52 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Not Raider love
So much as lack of respect for the AFC West in general.
"Only the strong survive, but the strong still get their ass whipped." -Nick Saban
Have you seen the Chargers schedule?
They may as well play the High School teams in California. They’ll win the AFC West going away.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
a decent qb would've gotten them at least 2 more wins last year
mainly because that division is horrid.
I think the Redskins are about to experience a downgrade
now watch them trade for Vincent Jackson and light the world on fire.
The Broncos losing talent means
the Raiders are 2nd in the AFC West. They actually have a competent QB and he will be protected unlike in D.C. They still have an uphill climb to make the playoffs but 8 or 9 wins is not out of the question, imo.
Raiders will be better but will top out at 8 wins to me
San Diego is still at least 3 wins better imo. Rivers is a great qb and Matthews will be a stud.
by houseofprime on Aug 28, 2010 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
been trolling for a long time
And decided its about time I joined in.
Watching the sd v no game tonight the commentator made a good point . He said that if ANYONE but the cowboys, saints or vikings go to the super bowl it is going to be an upset. Just this sort of thinking tells me that parity might have taken a back seat this year. The only division is see changing champs is the west and the packers are getting a wild card. The giants and eagle haveto fight each other and ATL for that last spot. There’s a good chance the nfc playoff bracket looks just like 2009
by InkedKing on Aug 28, 2010 2:04 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Welcome King
I keep expecting a repeat of the previous season every year, and these pesky football teams keep messing it up. But I don’t think the Cards or the Eagles will repeat. The Vikes, Saints, Packers, and Cowboys look strong though.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
Top Tier in NFC
is MIN, GB, NO and DAL-barring critical injuries, each is a legit SB contender
ATL, PHL, NYG and SF are next. CAR – maybe
AZ has a big QB question, SEA too many questions overall. WAS is still short on talent.
DAL really missed its window of opportunity when we lost to the NYG at home in the Divisional round. NFC was weak and continued to be so. Now could be the strongest NFC has been since the 90’s.
I'm not losing my memory, I'm living in the now
Perfectly plausible projections, OCC.
Your alliterative angle in analysis addresses some of Angus’s angst. : )
"We'll see." --Bill Parcells
Thanks
If it was just me here, I’d only put up the numbers and a title and be done with it. But I need to fill at least the part before the break with some text – might as well have fun doing it :-)
by One.Cool.Customer on Aug 28, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
I like the Lions to win the NFC North
Only half-joking. But you can usually count on a crazy-random team to come out of nowhere. Last year, what did we all think of the Bengals – esp. with all of our castoffs. Nobody thought they would have a winning season… much less that they would unseat the Steelers and Ravens and win their Division.
It's tough with Green Bay...
…but I still think it’s possible.
They will stomp the crap out of the Vikings this year. I say they win both games against Minnesota. That defense matches up great with the short yardage offense that Minny runs and I think people are really underestimating what Jim Schwartz has done with that team in the off-season.
The addition of Suh and Vanden Bosch is amazing, and adding Dre Bly to mentor the young secondary was a great decision.
I think they are definitely 0.500 or better.
how?
After watching those two vikings-packers games last year I find it tough to believe GB will “stomp the crap out of them” – the Vikings D owned a packers oline whose tackles are now even older!
If they sweep minnesota, GB is likely going to be 13-3 or better.
Man, switch the words "packers" and "GB" with "Dallas" and that's a frighteningly true statement.
After watching those two vikings-packers games last year I find it tough to believe GB will "stomp the crap out of them" – the Vikings D owned a packers oline whose tackles are now even older!
by Blue Eyed Devil on Aug 28, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty sure hes talking lions
Really?! Really?!
by thebigham on Aug 28, 2010 1:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
When is the last time the Lions blew out somebody?
I say they maybe beat the Vikings in Detroit but they have been downright awful on the road.
by houseofprime on Aug 28, 2010 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Gotta say the 49er's
Obviously a D you have to keep your eye on and no holdout drama from a diva widereceiver.
Setting a goal is not the main thing. It is deciding how you will go about achieving it and staying with that plan.
Tom Landry
I know it was a preseason game
but the Rams looked good against the Pats
Wow
So you think 3 NFC South teams will make the playoffs?
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Quoting yourself doesn't require your own name attached to it. I'm going to assume if there isn't anyone else's name attached it's yours.
I see them too.
I guess I assumed that the Saints weren’t going to fall out completely.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Quoting yourself doesn't require your own name attached to it. I'm going to assume if there isn't anyone else's name attached it's yours.
Tennessee will make a lot of noise this year.
If the 49ers can get good QB play they will win the west IMO. Did anybody else watch the Saints— Chargers game last night? Saints first team looked very good, Brees is in mid year form. I know it’s preseason, but the Saints look like they could be better this year. Brees maybe the best QB in the league and their D is in their 2nd year with Greg Williams a very good DC. Dallas and N.O. in the NFC championship game.
Lock n Load
I think the niners could have bad QB play
and still win the west.
AFB Condensed- New name, same flavor.
Quoting yourself doesn't require your own name attached to it. I'm going to assume if there isn't anyone else's name attached it's yours.
with their defense
and the terrible offensive football in that division? absolutely.
Need some fantasy advice
Should I trade Finley and Addai for Witten and Gore
by Baked Potato Soup on Aug 28, 2010 11:08 AM CDT reply actions
Is that a joke?
I mean, I think it is.
But if it isn’t… yeah, I mean, Addai probobly won’t even be a starter by the end of the season.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Aug 28, 2010 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
This year's Teams to make the Post Season who weren't in last year
NFC: Giants (WC), 49ers (Div)
AFC: Dolphins (Div), Steelers (Div), Titans (WC)
NFC Playoff Teams:
Saints
Cowboys
Packers
49ers
Giants
Vikings
AFC Playoff Teams
Colts
Steelers
Chargers
Dolphins
Patriots
Titans
It's only a dream till you write it down, and then it becomes a goal.
-Emmitt Smith
Steelers take the division?
Care to elaborate on that one for the edification of the rest of us? I’d just like to hear your line of thinking on that one.
Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable. --
Tom Landry
by Pnut Gallery on Aug 28, 2010 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
it simple
49ers as the division winner….
Cardinals with Leinnart or even Anderson sucks…their pass blocking is poor and their QBs are even worse….
Seahawks – on the rigt way, but still not enough of improvment….Carroll need another year…
Rams – ? still bad …. maybe offense is going to be better….but in defense, there is way too many holes…
my hourse are 49ers with excellent defense and solid offense…now they are having good O-line with Iupati, Davis …one of the best TE, solid RB, and Go to Guy Crabtree…Alex Smith looks sharp in preseason against Viqueens…
before there was law, there were the Cowboys!!!
In no particular order here we go...
NFC………………….AFC
Cowboys…………Colts
Packers…………..Chargers
Saints………………Dolphins*
49ers*……………….Steelers*
Giants*……………..Patriots
Falcons*……………..Titans*
Sleepers (I’m not joking, I am half serious): Raiders, Seahawks, Bears, and Lions
Flops (I don’t believe in them for various reasons): Vikings, Jets, Cardinals, Ravens
My rebound team
The Carolina Panthers.
They’re an unlikely playoff pick, but I am undaunted.
Here’s why;
Coaching – I like John Fox. He’s a smart guy and his brand of football is exactly what the Saints hate to play…bruising, tough-nosed defense and inside/outside running.
The RB’s – I love Jonathan Stewart, I like DeAngelo Williams and I wouldn’t want to be hit by Tony Fiametta.
The O-line – I like how they’ve rebuilt that line and Matt Moore will have time to throw the ball this year, even though he won’t have to throw it often.
The defense – It’s largely a no-name group that was in the top 10 last year despite Delhomme’s inclination to give opponents short fields.
They finished strong – They won 4 of their last 5 and beat the Vikings, Giants and Saints in that stretch. Maybe some of that was good teams resting their starters, but it gave the Panthers confidence. I also liked how they played the Pats on the road during that run.
It’s a risky pick, but I am going with it.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Totally agree.
They went 8-8 last year despite starting terrible. I see them rebounding for sure.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Aug 29, 2010 2:40 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
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