Fast Start Will Be Key To Cowboys Success In 2010
by One.Cool.Customer on Aug 30, 2010 4:39 PM CDT
in Dallas Cowboys General
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The Cowboys offense has been unable to come out and hit the ground running in four successive pre-season games so far. Not to over emphasize the importance of the pre-season, but that is a little disconcerting. Disconcerting not just because it would have been nice to get a few scoring drives, but because that is something that is a little too familiar from last season.
The Cowboys had six games last year in which they failed to score a single point in the first quarter, and three more games in which they only scored field goals in the first quarter. That's a total of nine games without a touchdown in the first quarter.
Only once last season did the Cowboys score two touchdowns in the first quarter, in the winning effort against the Saints in week 15. With a grand total of only 71 points scored in the first quarter, and 169 by halftime, the Cowboys ranked 16th in first quarter scoring in the league and 17th in first half scoring.
How you finish is more important than how you start, but does that hold true in the NFL as well? Find out after the break.
Does the early bird get the worm?
In the Super Bowl, teams that get on the scoreboard first have won 64% of the time (28-16), but have incidentally lost six of the last nine. In the 256 regular season games last year, teams scoring first recorded an almost identical winning rate of 66% (168-88). But it's not just whether you score, it's how you score that makes a difference. Getting on the scoreboard first with a field goal was not as highly correlated with a win as getting on the scoreboard with a touchdown:
| Scoring first: Winning percentages 2009 regular season | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Field Goal | Touchdown | ||
| W/L | 168 - 88 | 59 - 44 |
109 - 44 |
|
| in % | 66% | 57% | 71% | |
Being the first team on the board with a field goal hardly improved your odds of winning the game last season. Getting on the scoreboard first with a TD did increase the odds of winning significantly. Also, in the 254 games last year where at least one TD was scored, the team scoring the first TD (regardless of whether it was preceded by a FG or not) came out the winner in 74% of all games (188-66).
Scoring first, preferably with a touchdown, improved your chances of winning the game last season. Note that these numbers don't necessarily mean that the scoring happened in the early quarters. Scores by quarter follow below.
Fast start is a key to winning games
In Super Bowls, teams that led at halftime won 79% of the time (33-9). Two games have been tied: XXIII (Bengals - 49ers) and XXXIX (Patriots - Eagles).
Getting off to a fast start had a similarly noticeable effect on winning percentages last year. 72% of all regular season games were basically decided by the end of the first quarter, meaning the team that held the lead after the first quarter eventually won the game. And that percentage went up the further the game progressed:
| Winning probability when in the lead, by quarter 2009 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st Quarter | 2nd Quarter | 3rd Quarter | ||
| W/L | 145 - 56 |
183 - 149 |
197 - 37 |
|
| in % | 72% | 79% | 84% | |
Keep in mind that these season stats are for the NFL average. An above average team like the Cowboys should have different numbers, and a closer look reveals that they do:
| Cowboys record based on scores at halftime, 2006-2009 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys leading by halftime | Cowboys trailing by halftime | Score tied at halftime | Total reg. season record |
|
| W/L | 27 - 3 |
12 - 16 |
3 - 3 |
42 - 22 |
| in % | 90% | 43% | 50% | 64% |
The Cowboys have blown only three halftime leads in the last four years (PHI '06, PIT '08, DEN '09), and the 90% halftime lead winning percentage is higher than the 79% NFL average.
After trailing by halftime, the Cowboys went on to win slightly less than half their games (43%), a lot better than the league average at 21%. A word of caution though: all of the comebacks the Cowboys have staged after trailing by halftime have come in situations where they were trailing by a touchdown or less. Abandon all hope when the opponent leads by more than a touchdown at halftime (NO '06, WAS '07, STL '08, NYG '08) - the Cowboys lost all those games.
When the Cowboys got an early lead, they've been virtually unbeatable in the past. How to get that early lead this year is something the coaches and the team have two weeks left to figure out.
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How to get that early lead this year ...
Score first – yeah first!
Tell 'em to put that Mike Jenkins pic-6 play in ...
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Back to ol' reliable.
Hit em in the mouth, and see what they’re made of. Slap the ball out. Put a helmet on it. Big hits early in the game can set the tone.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
OCC...
If someone were to tell me that we’d have to give up Raf but would get you in the deal, I’d make that deal every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Your insightful (and highly quantifiable) stuff is well worth my time.
Now, as always, I have a comment.
It seems to me that having a lead early and being able to keep it had more to do with the defense than the offense.
Why do you think this team, with all of its purported firepower, has struggled to come from behind?
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
With all due respect,
I would disagree with most of this comment. The early lead, or lack of it as the article reads to me, is the true indictment against the offense. On the contrary, I believe the article indicates we do above average in coming from behind. It only stands to reason that coming from behind by larger margins equates to less success. I ascribe the lack of the early lead to the personality of this team. They seem to do well when their backs are against the wall, and fail miserably when expectations are high, or the opposing team is terrible.
Of course, I agree that OCC is a true asset!
False
I can count on one hand the number of times Dallas has been out of a game (aka “behind by larger margins” at halftime). You could argue that we have not adequately quantified the value of “larger margins”, but I’m going to assume we can’t be that far apart.
To say that the reason we don’t take early leads is because of “personality” is both an oversimplification of the highest order and something that cannot be argued one way or the other, thus making it a non sequitur.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
give up Raf ???
Blings, your comments are often quality, but this borders on silly.
OCC is a great addition to this blog, but why you want to measure one quality writer against another is beyond me.
As for the rest of your comment, I have to agree with Silverblue: we don’t struggle to come from behind, and exactly how does the defense help generate an early lead?
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
oops ... LOL ... um, sorry :)
I missed the memo?
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
No worries...I'll assume I have regained whatever qualitative praise I lost in the mixup...all is right in the world again
Now, back to football…
Since T.O. left, Dallas was 14th in points scored last year and 18th the year prior. Simply put, we haven’t been outgunning people in shootouts in the last 32 games.
Whatever halftime leads this team was able to manufacture have had to be held by the defense.
Let me say something else about the offense though; Dallas has had a poor start in most games on offense largely because Romo has been sluggish out of the gate. I believe OCC has already validated that point with a litany of statistics. That’s not PERSONALITY, it is sub-par QB play early in games.
Sorry, but it is what it is.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
"is what it is..."
what it is … is a subjective opinion, which you’re welcome to … as I am welcome to disagree :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
You're right
There’s always a small chance that it is what it isn’t.
;>)
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Sorry to let facts get in the way of your story, but ...
Romo QB rating of 90 in 1st quarter last year :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Yep, and as OCC pointed out, he got better as the game wore on
…and yet, 14th in points scored.
Are you arguing that we did beat teams in shootouts or that the slow starts weren’t at all attributable to Romo’s poor starts?
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Blings, you would make a good lawyer ...
your question “attributable to Romo’s poor starts…” offers both a yes and a no answer that you like … as both say “Romo had poor starts…”
How about this question instead: … given Romo’s solid passer rating, is the fault on the defense or on the rest of the team?
:)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
He's moved on.
There’s a story on the front page about it.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
terrific stuff OCC
yet again you post an informative and detailed article..
thanks ……..
Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!
The offense needs to be able to score...
more often on opening drives. They haven’t converted early touchdown consistanly over the last couple years. It sounds simple but the execution must improve.
i feel like i've read a comment like this before :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
lol
Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!
by scotscowboyfan on Aug 30, 2010 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I feel like people have lol'd before
The new mantra: No more injuries. No more injuries. Everybody now: NO MORE INJURIES!
My computer screen feels dirty.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
why do I find this so funny? :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Because you are a strange person
Trust me, I know from personal experience in the role
The new mantra: No more injuries. No more injuries. Everybody now: NO MORE INJURIES!
not sure I'd want to admit all of that if I were you :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Romo is one of the keys to this
We have been a second half team since Tony’s been the starter. But he may be kicking that trend.
In 2006, Q1 passer rating 69.4 – season 95.1
2007 Q1 63.2 – season 97.4
2008 Q1 71.5 – season 91.4
2009 Q1 90.7 – season 97.6
So in 2009 he closed the gap significantly, but still was a bit worse than his average in the other 3 quarters. If he reverts back to the trend from his first three seasons then the fast start will be hard to achieve.
But I sense the more consistent quarter by quarter numbers is a sign of his growing maturity. Guessing he started games a little too pumped and played better once he calmed down.
"Where's Woody? - We need another Darren Woodson
excellent, OzBoy ... you're hired as my reference digger for battles vs. Blings :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
What battles?
Although it isn’t easy, you always end up coming around in the end…
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
not sure what you're referring to ... I recall always winning :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Sometimes my conversations with you feel like this
A guy goes in to visit his doctor…after running a bunch of tests, the doctor comes back into the examination room and says, “I’ve got some bad news and some worse news”.
The man says “what’s the bad news?”
The doctor says, “you have cancer”
The man says, “oh no! what’s the worse news?”
The doctor says, “you also have Alzheimer’s”
The man says, “wow, that’s terrible, but at least I don’t have cancer”
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Here is my doctor joke
A guy goes to see his doctor. The doctor says “I have good news and bad news. Which do you want first?”
The guy says, “Give me the bad news”
The doctor says “You have cancer and you are going to die”
The guy is distraught, and says “Oh my god, what is the good news?”
The Doctor answers “Did you see the blonde receptionist with the big hooters? I am fu%@ing her!”
Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
My Beer Blog: http://tiltingsuds.wordpress.com/
Starting fast doesn't matter as much if you have a good defense
If your defense keeps you in the game well into the 4th qtr, thats when a team has to be playing their best.
I hate it when teams come out fast and then tail off in the second half, I’ve seen this numerous times by a lot of teams over the years. Remember when we came out and destroyed the Packers in 2007 during the first half the game after Thanksgiving and then almost let Aaron Rodgers lead a dramatic comeback in the second half.
I’d much rather play well to finish the game then start hot in the beginning and then tail off.
In Romo we Trust
Same thing with the Saints last season.
The Saints never should have gotten as close as they did last year if we would have taken care of business. Not that we take big leads early very often, but when we do jump out on teams, we tend to let them back in the games late. We may not lose, but we make it interesting. In all fairness, give the other teams credit for mounting comebacks.
If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.
our offense just seems to go into cruise control
after we start out fast, personally, I’d rather see us explosive in the second half of games, and gradually get better as the game moves into the 4th.
In Romo we Trust
personally, I'd like to see us known as the team that can put up 40 on you
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
I must agree with you here...
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
Good Stuff but......
Since this is based on first score (TD more than FG) it would seem to fall equally on the O and the D…..if we dont get the ball first, and the D gives up a TD it would not matter that we come right back and score (from a stat point of view), they would have drawn first blood. So unless we the Cowboys have the ball first alot more than 50% of the time, this is not just about the O, it is about a balanced football team…….and when you look at it that way, it makes even more sence that the odds are higher for that team to win
"My days of not taking you seriously have certainly come to a middle"
Opening drives
BTB member JLMax09 had two interesting posts in June about the Cowboys Opening drives in 2009 and how they compared to the rest of the NFL.
His findings: The Cowboys offense ranked 19th in the league on opening drives, scoring a total of 27 points on five opening drives. The defense gave up 20 points on just four opening drives.
by One.Cool.Customer on Aug 31, 2010 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions
the last 3 games of 2009 were where all this got interesting
JLMax’s data reveals that our first 13 opening drives last year yielded at grand total of 6 points. The other 21 points came on the last 3 opening drives of the season, perhaps not coincidentally also the 3 strongest showings by the defense, which nearly shutdown the NFL’s most prolific offense in the Saints and then proceeded to completely blank the Redskins and Eagles. If you split the data between the first 13 games and the last 3, it shows that our December woes were totally conquered last year.
by speedmetal on Aug 31, 2010 11:58 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think the 'Boys would benefit from scripting their plays on the opening drive
Bill Walsh always had his 49ers run a scripted set of plays on the opening drive. Other coaches, including our first opponent Shanahan, have used this procedure. Scripting plays allows the offense to practice them repeatedly in the same order and should limit mistakes, penalties, and miscommunication (especially in noisy road games). It also allows the O-coordinator a chance to test how the defense is reacting to certain formations and plays in an organized manner.
Of course, the O-line still needs to block and the recievers/running backs still need to be able to beat their man or our opening drive will be 3 and out whether it is scripted or not.
I don't think I've ever heard Garrett deny that he scripts
Every time the topic comes up he’s very coy and evasive about it. I’ve never heard him deny that he scripts the first series of plays.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Aug 31, 2010 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions
+1 I think I have read where he doesnt necessarily run specific plays but does script(make point of) getting as many formations as he can early to see how they will line up against us.
Then he knows how to go about attacking them.
Maybe this is why we are slow starters. More of an emphasis on getting as many looks in early. if this leads to slow starts but better job of finishing then Im okay with slower starts.
Im speculating.
Ability is a poor mans wealth.
The main ingredient of stardom is the rest of the team.
Talent is God given, Be humble. Fame is man given, Be grateful. Conceit is self-given, Be careful.
-John Wooden-
This is not a bad line of reasoning ... like a fighter feeling out his opponent.
But you don’t want to actually sacrifice production to some other end. Scripted play-calling is likely common for initial drives. And the idea is to exploit some weakness or leverage some strength.
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
oddly, this team has a similar profile to the championship teams of the mid-90s
In that both teams were stellar at putting the game away after gaining an early lead. I suspect the 90s team was well above average at scoring first though. And I also suspect that team had a greater percentage of leads after the first half, while this team is better at the comeback.
by speedmetal on Sep 1, 2010 12:11 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
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