Do The Cowboys Have The Best Outside Linebackers In The NFL?
In his divisional preview of the NFC East on SI.com, Ross Tucker opines that the Cowboys may have the best tandem of outside pass rushers in the league:
DeMarcus Ware has long been the gold standard among outside linebackers when it comes to rushing the passer and 2009 was no different as he notched double-digit sacks for the fourth consecutive year.
What was different in 2009, especially down the stretch, was the emergence of former first-round pick Anthony Spencer. He had six sacks in the final six games of the regular season before continuing that trend in the postseason, when he tacked on an additional sack in each one of those contests.
For Cowboys fans, this does not come as a surprise. After all, we've marveled at the Ferociousness of DeMarcus Ware for years now, and Spencer's emergence hasn't gone unnoticed either. But just how good are the two Cowboys OLBs compared to their NFL peers, and will they be the best tandem in the league this year?
To understand just how good a tandem Spencer and Ware could be, we need to look at their peers going into the 2010 season. With Elvis Dumervil out for the season on the Bronco's IR, Jason Taylor moving from the Dolphins to the Jets and Aaron Kampman leaving the Packers for the Jaguars, the 3-4 OLB landscape in 2010 will change significantly versus 2009.
Based on the cbssports.com depth charts for each team, below is a table with the projected 2010 starters at OLB and their production in 2009.
| 2010 3-4 OLB projected starters and 2009 regular season production | ||||||||||
| Team |
Starting LOLB |
Starting ROLB |
||||||||
| Player | Sacks | QB Hits | QB Hurries | Player | Sacks | QB Hits | QB Hurries | |||
| ARI | Clark Haggans | 5.5 | 4 | 17 | Joey Porter* | 9 | 4 | 12 | ||
| BAL | Jarret Johnson | 6 | 7 | 9 | Terrell Suggs | 4.5 | 2 | 14 | ||
| BUF | Chris Kelsay | 5.5 | 5 | 12 | Reggie Torbor* | 1 | 3 | 1 | ||
| CLE | Matt Roth | 4 | 3 | 13 | Scott Fujita* | 1 | 1 | 3 | ||
| DAL | Anthony Spencer | 6 | 19 | 29 | DeMarcus Ware | 11.5 | 15 | 29 | ||
| DEN | Mario Haggan | 1 | 3 | 5 | Robert Ayers | 0 | 7 | 5 | ||
| GB | Clay Matthews | 10 | 12 | 21 | Brandon Chillar | 2 | 1 | 4 | ||
| KC | Mike Vrabel | 2 | 1 | 12 | Tamba Hali | 8.5 | 7 | 26 | ||
| MIA | Kao Misi* | - - | - - | - - | Cameron Wake | 5.5 | 4 | 8 | ||
| NYJ | Bryan Thomas | 2 | 4 | 8 | Calvin Pace | 8 | 1 | 16 | ||
| NE | Derrick Burgess | 5 | 7 | 16 | Tully Banta-Cain | 10 | 8 | 18 | ||
| PIT | LaMarr Woodley | 13.5 | 14 | 27 | James Harrison | 10 | 9 | 25 | ||
| SD | Shaun Phillips | 7 | 7 | 11 | Shawne Merriman | 4 | 2 | 11 | ||
| SF | Manny Lawson | 6.5 | 11 | 14 | Parys Haralson | 5 | 10 | 18 | ||
| WAS | Brian Orakpo | 11 | 5 | 21 | Andre Carter | 11 | 14 | 21 | ||
Using 2009 numbers might not be absolutely fair to both the players and the teams. After all, some teams, like the Packers have only run the 3-4 for a year, others like the Bills and Redskins will run if for the first time this year. Some players were injured last year or had to move positions or joined new teams(*). Regardless, these are the best numbers we have. Note that these numbers are from Football Outsiders, and in some instances do not match with the numbers of the official NFL scorekeepers.
To add up the numbers of the OLB tandems above I'll use a formula for Pass Rushing Points as proposed by Khaled Elsayed of Profootballfocus.com.
Total Sacks + (Total Hits x 0.75) + (Total Hurries x 0.75) = Pass Rushing Points
| Pass Rushing Points by OLB Tandem | ||||
| Team | Sacks | QB Hits | QB Hurries | Pass Rushing Points |
| DAL | 17.5 | 34 | 58 | 86.5 |
| PIT | 23.5 | 23 | 52 | 79.8 |
| WAS | 22 | 19 | 42 | 67.8 |
| NE | 15 | 15 | 34 | 51.8 |
| SF | 11.5 | 21 | 32 | 51.3 |
| KC | 10.5 | 8 | 38 | 45.0 |
| ARI | 14.5 | 8 | 29 | 42.3 |
| GB | 12 | 13 | 25 | 40.5 |
| BAL | 10.5 | 9 | 23 | 34.5 |
| SD | 11 | 9 | 22 | 34.3 |
| NYJ | 10 | 5 | 24 | 31.8 |
| BUF | 6.5 | 8 | 13 | 22.3 |
| CLE | 5 | 4 | 16 | 20.0 |
| DEN | 1 | 10 | 10 | 16.0 |
| MIA | 5.5 | 4 | 8 | 14.5 |
We all know that past performance is no indicator of future success, but based on the 2009 numbers, Cowboys fans should go into the season relatively optimistic regarding their OLB tandem.
Two other data points could see Ware's and Spencer's numbers improve over 2009:
The last eight games: In the last eight games last year, including the two playoff games, Spencer recorded eight sacks, 18 QB hits, 13 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles. Double those numbers and you begin to understand what a pass rushing beast (and dominating run stuffer!) Spencer could be opposite DeMarcus Ware. Ware was no slouch himself either, and over the same span of games recorded seven sacks, five tackles for loss, 14 QB hits and four forced fumbles.
Regression to the mean: When someone pulls out the regression to the mean argument, it's usually all about an expected decline in production. Here are DeMarcus Ware's sack totals from 2005-2009: 8, 11.5, 14, 20, 11.
Consider that Ware played with a fractured foot the first half of last season and fractured his wrist in early December, yet still managed to get 11 sacks. For DeMarcus, a regression to the mean could easily mean 14+ sacks in an 'average' year.
Only time will tell, but Spencer and Ware do indeed look like they could be the best 3-4 OLBs in the league this year. They will be challenged by the outstanding Steelers duo of Woodley and Harrison, and may also see competition in their own NFC East backyard from the Redskins, where Orakpo is turning into one scary dude.
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very good OCC
they certainly are the best tandem.
there are lots of sacks and forced fumbles in their play for the up coming season-imo…
expecting great things from a healthy dware and a more experienced a-spencer….
the “blitz brothers” will take some stopping in 2010……
Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!
yes...absolutely
Spencer was a monster at the end of last year (probably the league’s best OLB in 2009)…and Ware did all that with multiple significant injuries.
At the most important position in the 3-4, we have 2 of the league’s 3 or 4 top players. They are the reason we should be considered superbowl contenders.
Talking about linebackers.
Old Norm on the ticket this morning said the Cowboy coaches aren’t happy with Lee’s progress. He said Lee will be no more than a special team player this year. I like norm and respect his opinion, but I think he’s jumping ship a little early on Lee.
Lock n Load
ive noticed,
on the cowboys site,theres talk of lee not being a nickel lb.
says hes been playing the mo lb as back up to bradie james…
Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!
by scotscowboyfan on Sep 1, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
If they're not happy with Lee, I can only imagine how they feel about Williams
as Lee is playing much better ball than him right now.
In Romo we Trust
might be more a case of,
finding the best position for lees skill-set..
the guy is explosive,can still see that 4th down tackle against the chargers-wow-…
Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!
by scotscowboyfan on Sep 1, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Lee missed a lot of valuable time early in camp
He is a smart kid and seems to have a keen sense of football knowledge coupled with a great work ethic. I am sure with some time he could gro into the role. If not, I would imagine he would spell in more running situations.
All I know is if Brooking is going to be effect during the last part of the season,
he’s going to need some plays off. I was hoping Lee could spell him some, and I’m not convinced he can’t. The injury set him back no doubt, but I thought he looked good against SD. He kinda faded in the Texan game, but so did everyone else.
Lock n Load
Lees biggest problem is constistency,admittedly,
and the speed of the game.After all that time off,getting back up to speed has been a problem.IMO he does well plugging holes across the line of scrimmage,his problem is picking up the reads on pass plays.He gets it right some of the time,but some plays he is left chasing because he didn’t get the read fast enough or at all,which is the reason they aren’t using him for nickle.This all comes down to being a rookie and the time he missed in preseason.Sean will catch on and will be a good LB in this league for years to come. COWBOYS RULE!!!
Wade Phillips first Super Bowl win is as the Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys!!!
by NVCowboy4Life on Sep 1, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Penn State LBs
are like Texas CBs, you expect them to be close to NFL ready when they come out. At least the ones taken in the 1st round.
Lock n Load
Lee's shown tremendous recognition in the running game
But not everything comes easy to a rookie. I like what we’ve seen so far, and expect Lee to be fighting for more and more playing time as the year progresses. Is there much more you can ask of a rookie?
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
I don't this it's so much being unhappy with Lee's Progress
as much as it is he missed over half of camp, and the most important part of camp! Think about it, Lee was back for the California practices but how many times did they suit up in full pads?
I think losing Dez, Lee, and AOA for the majority of the first part of camp was a disaster.
Lee is clearly talented, but he can’t make up all that ground in shorts and baseball caps in Oxnard.
by Blue Eyed Devil on Sep 1, 2010 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Nice piece, OCC
… do you ever sleep?
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
no sleep for him, we need more :)
Are we expecting to see inside LB analysis next?
I would wager to say most of us are very comfortable on the outside for now, what about the inside? Is there a dropoff when it comes to the inside guys? How much of a factor are they when it comes to pass-rushing … or is that even worth the time?
But really, thx OCC
OCC has more ideas in his head than any five of the rest of us
And more brains than any ten, I think
The new mantra: No more injuries. No more injuries. Everybody now: NO MORE INJURIES!
are you counting bad ideas? because then I think I'm in the running :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
No doubt there is a drop off from OLB to ILB,
but the three best players on the D are Rat, Ware an Spencer IMO.
Lock n Load
Definitely, but the drop off from Ware, Spencer and Ratliff
might be what keeps this defense from becoming dominant. As good as those three are, the rest of the defense is pretty average. I don’t think the DEs, ILBs, and safeties are striking fear into the hearts of any opposing offensive coordinators. Newman can run with anyone, but he’s developed a habit of giving up big plays on third and longs. And unless he sees the quarterback throw the ball, he struggles to make a play on the ball when it’s in the air. Hopefully, Jenkins can build on what he did last year. I thought Williams and Lee would be able to take some snaps away from James and Brooking, but it doesn’t look like they’re ready yet. I understand Lee is at a disadvantage for missing so much camp. Based on what little I’ve seen, it just looks like he might get overpowered when he’s going against starters as opposed to back-ups. Considering they gave up two high picks to get him, I hope I’m wrong.
by CMcClure on Sep 1, 2010 6:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Great Read OCC
We are in an elite category. IMO the only team close to our talent is the Steelers. But I wouldn’t trade our guys for anything.
plus if you think about it
I do believe that Ware and Spencer are several years younger than the Pittsburgh players so we should see them be dominant for several more seasons after Pittsburgh’s guys have fallen by the wayside.
"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt
"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author
by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Sep 1, 2010 4:58 PM CDT reply actions
Niiice
The only issue is, now Spencer will get more attention and maybe double teams. But then Ratliff or Ware (if left one-one) should take advantage.
What we have to do is not get discouraged if his sack totals are lower, but pay attention to whether he’s attracting more attention, freeing up other guys.
I’m curious to see if Ware picks it up a little, I never felt he was quite the same after the neck injury either.
All of this should help cover the mediocrity of the secondary and make them look better than they probably are, which is OK, but not great (wait a while on Jenkins, OK?)
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
You don't need to wait on Jenkins ... he started 16 games last year and proved he's Pro-Bowl caliber
Newman is also one of the better CBs in the league. We’re not elite at safety, but seem to improve the position each year.
Mediocre? That implies the poor-side of average. I just can’t agree with this.
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
To me mediocrity is average, although I realize it carries a negative connotation.
Newman-he can be above average for stretches, but will falter more and more as he ages. Nagging injuries are always a concern.
Jenkins-I want to see it carry over before I count on him.
Scandrick is OK as a 3rd corner, with a little improvement he might be above-average for that spot.
The safeties are adequate. After what we’ve seen in the past anything looks good, especially if it’s not named Keith Davis or Pat Watkins.
So, to me, average, not good or bad.
The rest of the D is outstanding, though, and can help the secondary play above their level with a lot of pressure, and by stuffing the running game.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
by Realist Larry on Sep 2, 2010 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions
You're still trying to put a spin on one of the best CB tandems in the NFL
Jenkins needs to prove himself EVERY year, like they all do … for now, enjoy him in his prime, because I don’t see him taking a giant leap backwards.
Newman’s played above-average even WITH injuries … now he’s finally 100% … I’m expecting a good year from his side.
Even Scandrick is one of the best #3s in the league …
These three just don’t warrant the word mediocre :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Ware was hurt early in the season too
I can’t wait to see how these guys play when they’re both healthy.
Spencer was a monster the second half of last year, great against the run and great rushing the passer.
yes, there's a lot of hope there.
I’d like to see a lot of pressure from game one!
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
by Realist Larry on Sep 2, 2010 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Great article. When i read the title i thought NO WAY you had better OLB's than my Steelers
After giving it a chance, since i’m betting on you guys to win the division, i was shocked at seeing the stats for Spencer!
Nothing more fun than a dominating pass rush from linebackers huh?
After reading the article i have to admit you definitely have an argument as to having the best pass-rush duo based on last year.
Of course i still believe my Steelers still have the best, as last year was just one weird year for us. I expect to see our defense go back to 2008 form this year so….
It should be a great battle for OLB supremacy this year and look forward to seeing the numbers at the end of the year and the Steelers getting our OLB title back to it’s rightful place ;-)
As the son of a former Michigan student
I absolutely love Lamar Woodley. That guy never should have dropped in the draft. He was as good at Michigan if not better than Brandon Graham.
If I had a nickel for every Super Bowl the Eagles have won, I would have zero nickels.
by Cowboyfan729 on Sep 1, 2010 8:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Nice post, Freddyd
I have the Pittsburgh D in my FF for the same reason – I expect them to return to form this year.
Hopefully we’ll be playing you guys at the end of this marathon :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
Hopefully, both our linebacking corps will live up to their billings
and we can settle whose best in the Superbowl! :-)
by Blue Eyed Devil on Sep 1, 2010 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions
"Regression to the mean"
Not to nitpick, but to paraphrase a famous philosopher:
I do not think that those words mean what you think they mean.
Long story short, regression toward the mean is exactly that. Regression toward the MEAN from either direction, more AND less.
However, since Ware likely did better than the average (mean) pass rusher last year, by definition his improving his sack/pressure etc. totals cannot be regression toward the mean.
It COULD be a return to uninjured performance levels, but it CANNOT be regression toward the mean unless you can show that his performance was worse than the league average performance.
I beg to differ
I know exactly what I am talking about. You have chosen to define ‘mean’ as the average pass rusher last year. Then your argument is correct. More power to you.
The question for me was, what is the mean sack total for DeMarcus Ware? That’s why I put in Ware’s sack numbers of the last five years. You will have noticed that the first four years are an almost linear progression of his sack totals. In fact r² for his sack totals from 05-08 is 0.97. Now, I don’t believe his sack total would have continued at a linear rate in any case, but the question then is, what is the mean for Ware?
You correctly point out that a regression to the mean could be a return to uninjured performance levels, and that is exactly what I was trying to show. Many people would argue that the average sack total over the last five years (12.9) is his mean. Some would even argue that the 20 sacks in 2008 were an outlier and should be removed to get an adjusted average or mean (11.1). So most arguments involving regression to the mean and Ware’s sack totals would have him moving closer to around 10 sacks (and thus an ‘expected decline’), if for no other reason than that people use an average to determine the mean.
I think that based on the (uninjured) trajectory of Ware’s sack totals through 08, Ware’s mean should be much closer to 20 than to 10. And that is why I included his injury history to put the 09 numbers in perspective.
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 2, 2010 3:28 AM CDT up reply actions
THE MATHLETES ARE FIGHTING! IT IS ON! IT IS SO ON! MATHLETE FIGHT!!!
Lifetime Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
My Beer Blog: http://tiltingsuds.wordpress.com/
always impressed
OCC, well said yet again. You are an eloquent, analytical machine.
Good Show!
It's like Requiem threw a mathmatical hay-maker ... and OCC stepped aside and returned a combination
It’s Carwin and Lesner all over again!!
One question: Isn’t “mean” the middle number? And if so, then “regression to the mean” is a bit of a misnomer, in that it seems to refer to “regression to the average” … am I wrong?
(picking up my star-wars energy shield)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
actually for the most part
“Mean” and “Average” are interchangeable
"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt
"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author
by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Sep 2, 2010 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Okay ... yes ... hard to argue as there's no subjective stuff here :)
The word I was thinking of was MEDIAN … meaning the number in the middle.
Math and Physics… it ain’t all that fun, but it’s the law :)
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
I'm still confused.
http://twitter.com/BloggingTheBoys
by Aaron Novinger on Sep 2, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
If I didn't have to teach those terms every year
I’d get them mixed up.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
by Realist Larry on Sep 2, 2010 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess
I’m just taking issue with the term.
Regression is NOT based off an performance expectation change. It is a simple statistical artifact that occurs based off sample size issues. IOW, it’s because we can’t really measure a person’s “true ability” with such a limited sample.
If you’re expecting a change because of a change in expectation (hmmmm, that’s a weird expression), then, by definition, that CANNOT be a regression.
It’s a change in expectation because you expect Ware to be healthier, and thus able to play to his “true ability.”
That however, is NOT “regression to the mean” from the statistical standpoint.
I realize that language can be flexible, but I guess I’m a little leery from seeing people misuse terms like “beg the question” where it is now actually used in a nearly opposite sense of what the original term meant.
OCC, nice job
i wonder, could you do something similar for this against the top pass rushing tandems instead of just OLB’s? I’m curious as to how they stack up there.
DE tandems
Using the same approach as outlined above (cbssports depth chart, Football Outsider data) here are the top four 4-3 DE tandems and their PRPs as well as sacks, hits and hurries for the individual players:
92.0: Vikings – LDE Edwards (8,17,33), RDE Allen (15,12,30)
86.0: Colts – LDE Mathis (9.5,11,30), RDE Freeney (13.5, 9,34)
71.3: Texans – LDE Smith (4.5, 14, 23), RDE Williams (9,13,27)
61.8: Saints – LDE Brown (6,11,14), RDE Smith (13,15,17)
Keep in mind that this may be incomplete data, as not every player will have played the full 16 game schedule. Also just because a team like the Eagles will play rookie Brandon Graham at LDE doesn’t mean they’ll end up low on the list when the season is done.
by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 2, 2010 6:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Ware sacks
Ware really only had 2007 when there was a real sack threat from the OLB when Ellis got double digits for the only time in his career. If spencer continues his ability at the level he showed in the last half of 2009, then he will be an annual double digit. That will mean that they can no longer solely concentrate on Ware. My personal numbers for Ware in an uninjured year with Spencer continuing at his present rate would be 14-18. Spencer is harder to figure but 12-14 sounds about right.
with this kind of pressure
i will be really disheartened if our turnover numbers don’t increase. especially if we build leads early, force them to throw and guys like Ratliff, Spencer and Ware get to pin their ears back and really get after the QB.
this was the idea going into last year, but despite the pressure, the turnovers never materialized
Original Pet-Cats: Duane Thomas, Roger Staubach, Walt Garrison, Charlie Waters, Bob Lilly
tis true, but
we didn’t really see Spencer show true glimpses of his ability (formerly referred to as potential) until Ware had his injury scare. now that Spence has the confidence, I think we will start the season with more of a dominant confidence.
also can’t help but think of the importance the Secondary is putting on turnovers. the fact that they have made it higher on the priority scale speaks volumes to me in the mind set of the players. IMO
but then we never really and a lead that forced a team to throw
I could be wrong on this(mind helping me out with this one OCC) but we really didnt have the type of lead through the second half that was so big that the other team was forced to throw to the entire half. that is where the turnovers start to flow.
"Of all the things I have lost , I miss my mind the most-Random T-shirt
"There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity"-Unknown Author
by I draft the Cowboys!!!! on Sep 2, 2010 9:58 AM CDT reply actions
The numbers don't say it all here
James Harrison had 3 injuries the majority of the second half of the season, but still played. You can see that in his sack numbers where he didn’t record one for the last 6 games of the season, and only 2 in the last 9 games of the season. In this upcoming season I believe we will see a Harrison much more like his DPotY year than last year.
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