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NFL Rookie Roster Survival Rates in the NFC East

Cowboys kicker David Buehler is a late round pick that has already made quite an impression.

In most cases, being taken in the early rounds of the NFL draft is a pretty good indicator that you'll make a team's 53-man roster. It gets a little trickier in later rounds as the talent begins to thin out.

But there are teams like the Cowboys who have had success in drafting in the later rounds (All Pro Jay Ratliff was a 7th-round pick in 2005) as well as with undrafted free agent pickups like Tony Romo and Miles Austin. How well a team's late round draft picks fare in the NFL is one indicator of how good the front office is at evaluating talent.

The Cowboys have drafted 19 players in the last two years. 16 are still with the Cowboys. After the break we look at how this compares to other NFC East teams.

Star-divide

Where are they now?

16 of the Cowboys 19 drafted rookies are still with the team, with John Phillips on IR and Manny Johnson on the practice squad. Three players are not with the team anymore:

2010 6th-rounder Jamar Wall was snapped up off waivers by the Texans. 2009 5th-rounder DeAngelo Smith, after stints with the Lions, Bengals and Browns, was waived on Saturday. 2009 7th-rounder Mike Mickens is now making his living with the Calgary Stampeders of the CFL.

Rookie survival rates in the NFC East

Comparing draft classes between teams is never easy, and there's bound to be tons of people crying 'foul' at any type of comparison. And yes, it usually takes three years, sometime even more, to judge a rookie class, but that's not what I'll do here. But before getting into the details, a couple of figures up front.

NFC East 2009 & 2010 draft picks
Cowboys Eagles Giants Redskins
No. of picks 19 21 16 13
Average round
4.8 4.6 3.8 4.9

The Eagles had the most picks of all teams in the last two years. The Cowboys and Redskins had the lowest average draft picks of the four teams, while the Giants appear to have favored fewer but earlier picks. So does any one approach impact the rookie survival rate, and how are we going to measure it?

The success criteria I've chosen are fairly simple: Did the drafted rookies make the team? My assumption going in is that you do not draft for the practice squad. So I'll count all the rookies as a draft success that were drafted in 2009 and 2010 and made the 53-man roster this weekend. I'll include the rookies on IR in that figure, but not the players on the practice squad.

I'll also include another measure of success: Are the rookies still in the employ of an NFL team? The fact that you were not able to get a player onto your 53-man roster is not necessarily and indictment of your scouting ability, it might just be that your roster is already loaded with talent.

Without much further ado, here are the numbers:

NFC East 2009 & 2010 draft pick survival rate
Cowboys Eagles Giants Redskins
No. of picks 19 21 16 13
On 53-man roster
79%(15) 67% (14) 75% (12) 38% (5)
Employed by an NFL team
89% (17) 81% (17) 88% (14) 69% (9)

Despite a 2009 draft that was widely billed as a special teams draft of quantity over quality, the Cowboys have the highest retention rate of drafted rookies on their 53-man roster. Somewhat surprisingly, the Giants, although drafting nearly one full round higher on average, have not turned those picks into a roster advantage.

The Redskins this year had only two of their six draft picks make the 53-man roster. The four cuts were all 6th and 7th round picks, but still: Where the Redskins are 0-for-4, the Cowboys are 3-for-4 on 6th and 7th rounders, the Eagles are 2-for-4 and the Giants 2-for-2 if you count Adrian Tracy (on IR) as part of the 53-man roster.

There may still be roster cuts and -changes ahead for every team, but for now it looks like the Cowboys have a slight quantitative advantage over the Eagles and Giants. What the Redskins are doing is anybody's guess.

Below are the full rookie classes for each team. Let me know if I've made a mistake somewhere, or if the status of a player has changed since I wrote this.

Cowboys
Year Round Player Status
2010 1 Dez Bryant 53-roster
2010 2 Sean Lee 53-roster
2010 4 AOA 53-roster
2010 6 Sam Young 53-roster
2010 6 Jamar Wall Texans
2010 7 Sean Lissemore 53-roster
2010 7 Josh Brent* 53-roster
2009 3 Jason Williams 53-roster
2009 3 Robert Brewster 53-roster
2009 4 Stephen McGee
53-roster
2009 4 Victor Butler 53-roster
2009 4 Brandon Williams 53-roster
2009 5 DeAngelo Smith Free Agent
2009 5 Mike Hamlin 53-roster
2009 5 David Buehler 53-roster
2009 6 Stephen Hodge 53-roster
2009 6 John Phillips IR
2009 7 Mike Mickens Out of NFL
2009 7 Manuel Johnson Practice Squad

 

 

 

Eagles
Year Round Player Status
2010 1 Brandon Graham 53-roster
2010 2 Nate Allen 53-roster
2010 3 Daniel Te'o-Nesheim 53-roster
2010 4 Trevard Lindley 53-roster
2010 4 Keenan Clayton 53-roster
2010 4 Mike Kafka 53-roster
2010 4 Clay Harbor 53-roster
2010 5 Ricky Sapp IR
2010 5 Riley Cooper 53-roster
2010 6 Charles Scott
Giants PS
2010 7 Jamar Chaney 53-roster
2010 7 Jeff Owens Practice Squad
2010 7 Kurt Coleman 53-roster
2009 1 Jeremy Maclin 53-roster
2009 2 LeSean McCoy 53-roster
2009 5 Cornelius Ingram Free Agent
2009 5 Victor Harris Free Agent
2009 5 Fenuki Tupou Free Agent
2009 6 Brandon Gibson Rams (traded**)
2009 7 Paul Fanaika Free Agent
2009 7 Moise Fokou 53-roster
Giants
Year Round Player Status
2010 1 Jason Pierre-Paul 53-roster
2010 2 Linval Joseph 53-roster
2010 3 Chad Jones IR
2010 4 Phillip Dillard 53-roster
2010 5 Mitch Petrus 53-roster
2010 6 Adrian Tracy IR
2010 7 Matt Dodge 53-roster
2009 1 Hakeem Nicks 53-roster
2009 2 Clint Sintim 53-roster
2009 2 William Beatty
53-roster
2009 3 Ramses Barden 53-roster
2009 3 Travis Beckum 53-roster
2009 4 Andre Brown Broncos
2009 5 Rhett Bomar Practice Squad
2009 6 DeAndre Wright Free Agent
2009 7 Stoney Woodson Free Agent
Redskins
Year Round Player Status
2010 1 Trent Williams 53-roster
2010 4 Perry Riley 53-roster
2010 6 Dennis Morris Practice Squad
2010 7 Terrence Austin Practice Squad
2010 7 Erik Cook Practice Squad
2010 7 Selvish Capers 53-roster
2009 1 Brian Orakpo
53-roster
2009 3 Kevin Barnes 53-roster
2009 3 Jeremy Jarmon* 53-roster
2009 5 Cody Glenn
Colts
2009 6 Robert Henson Free Agent
2009 7 Eddie Williams Free Agent
2009 7 Marko Mitchell Free Agent

 

* supplemental draft picks, ** Traded for LB Witherspoon - counted as a 53-roster player

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very good work OCC

Davie Wilson
how bout them cowboys!!!

by scotscowboyfan on Sep 6, 2010 2:02 PM CDT reply actions  

Nice work OCC

Always good to see the scouting department and coaches get props.
Still, I’m a little confused by the Cletis Gordon situation, why hasn’t he been snapped up by another team? Is this another example of the ’Boys being good judges of talent? We and other teams see him for who he really is ie. training camp star? This situation reminds me of the past year where we had a guy tear it up and then get cut and sign with Ravens. Name similar to Ogletree or something like that?

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 6, 2010 2:18 PM CDT reply actions  

It is surprising

That Wall got snatched up before Gordon.

by Blue Eyed Devil on Sep 6, 2010 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Evan Oglesby

Very similar situation. Dallas has shown they can pick talent over the last four or so drafts.

by kindablue on Sep 6, 2010 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

I like that you just abbreviated Akwumuju Oufasa-Amoogajumu to AOA. If you and Aaron thought the misspellings of Brookings, Whitten, and Terrannce Newman are bad, I hope AOA sticks around if only to watch how badly announcers butcher his name.

by JimmyK on Sep 6, 2010 2:34 PM CDT reply actions  

I'll take this one guys.

WTF? An Iggles fan coming here and making fun of our boys name? Listen Yimmy, it may be a cloudy day in Philly but that’s no excuse to come here and start waving your troll card around. I’m from 4chan and I WILL join your Bleeding Green Nation and troll till you guys cry uncle.

So, the question is, are you feeling lucky, punk?

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 6, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Easy there, Chief

I like Jimmy for the most part and his comment was meant in a humorous way.

by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 6, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, it's all good,

I’m 75 percent LOL and 50 percent BS myself.

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 6, 2010 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh,

I get it now. I guess the staggering political incorrectness you demonstrated in misspelling AOA’s real name threw me off a bit. I thought everyone knew it was wrong to make fun of Swedish names.
Carry on.

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 6, 2010 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

I thought you got it right away

Since you quoted 2 movies: Yimmy (whole nine yards) and Eastwood. Besides, his complete mangling of AOA’s name was pretty funny; not just a misspelling but the names aren’t even right.

- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"

by fan since '65 on Sep 7, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, his mangling of AOA's name was good stuff.

And it deserved a proper response if you ask me. I thought there might be Don Rickles joke in there somewhere (we can call him AOA or we can just call him Leroy). But, ah, I just couldn’t find a way to work it in there.

And don’t forget, I didn’t just stick with the silver screen, I thought I got a nice TV reference fit in there too. Not bad for just a few sentences.

Ahem, if you don’t mind me saying so…

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 7, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Flagged for racism

sorry

Wasn’t someone talking about a whiteout button coming soon? I think I’ll give that a try.

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 7, 2010 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Akwasee

He says it Akwasee, not Akwazee… see how many announcers get the right… Sham and Jones are still saying it wrong.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kddsrRsWKpU

by scottmaui on Sep 6, 2010 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Regarding D Smith....

would the cowboys consider looking at him again? What’s the story on F Toupou? He has the profile it seems.

I’d like to see a long list of cut and available olinemen. age, draft history etc.

I see that some didn’t clear waivers as expected, missed trades?

by Cwon1 on Sep 6, 2010 2:44 PM CDT reply actions  

Buehler says...

he’ll be happy to play DB if we need one bad enough to bring D Smith back. LOL

Rabid and luvin' it

by lonewolfz28 on Sep 6, 2010 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

If he wasn't working out so well kicking

I’d love to see him level a few receivers.

If at first you don't succeed - blame someone else.

by Tom Ryle on Sep 6, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Compare our success to say, the late 90's or early 00's, and you'll see a sharp contrast.

Even the mid 00’s were a crap shoot. As to where now our high picks are stars, and low picks eventually become starters, back then even our high picks were a bit iffy. The scouting department has managed to keep their jobs for another season.

If you can't fix it with a hammer, you've got an electrical problem.

by White Wolf on Sep 6, 2010 2:55 PM CDT reply actions  

Stats: Normally these stats would simply mean the teams retaining more players had less talent to start with.

Then having late-rounders stick would be expected.
What’s surprising is that the Cowboys have had this turnover while being competitive and making the playoffs.

Again, for years (esp. the Parcells years) I harped on the Boys not bringing in younger guys, and noted how the Eagles and Pats kept turning people over (while winning). You retain youth, enthusiasm, speed, and more salary cap space this way.

Glad the front office has noticed and copied success. (To JimmyK-or at least partial success!)

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009

by Realist Larry on Sep 6, 2010 4:19 PM CDT reply actions  

Just read Raf's new peice

" It’s the AT Countdown Labor Day Spectacular"

NOT his finest… I sure do hope this move turns out whats best for him.

by missingthe90s on Sep 6, 2010 4:21 PM CDT reply actions  

Doesn't seem like he trying to criticize, just an opinion.

Raf went to a blog that has a ways to go to catch BTB.

Lock n Load

by DIRE WOLF on Sep 6, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

soooo your saying

 i cant critique a man’s work in the field of entertainment, yet i can comliment him??? either or, thats not what the post was really about, i was pointing out an opinoin and was trying to end it on a positive note by wishing this move was indeed the right thing for him to have made.

by missingthe90s on Sep 6, 2010 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

How many former cowboys are in the league?

both originals from drafts and UDFA or how did any time here? I saw a list of cuts earlier, about 12-14. Only three picks I believe.

Quincy Butler is free, I remember they said many good things while he was here.

by Cwon1 on Sep 6, 2010 5:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Buehler, Bryant, Lee, AOA seem

to be the most impactful for this year. Butler is very good also. Phillips was a tough break, Brewster and McGee are hard to predict at their current stage as are many of the others. BWilliams is close to being a disappointment but could come out good.

5 UDAF over the last two years as well. Some more on the PS.

They’re doing a good g job but more needs to happen in the oline, I hope Costa, Young, Brewster work out to some degree.

by Cwon1 on Sep 6, 2010 5:10 PM CDT reply actions  

Nice work, OCC

I would have liked to see where each of those players listed are relative to their team’s depth chart at their positions.

Of the 12 picks from last year ( a draft I berated the FO for), it looks to me like Buehler is the only one (although you have to like Victor Butler) who has lived up to their slot after two camps, two preseasons and one regular season.

Am I reading that right?

"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."

- John Wooden (God rest his soul)

by 5Blings on Sep 6, 2010 6:17 PM CDT reply actions  

I would say

Butler and Buehler have way outperformed anything you’d normally expect from 4th or 5th round picks. Buehler gave us…what…5+ extra yards of field position per kickoff, and Butler looks like a starting quality olb.

Williams, McGee and Hamlin are providing what so far looks to be adequate value but its really tough to tell right untill these guys get more PT.

Brewster has a ways to go, but has at least shown potential, and Williams was a project, we knew that when we drafted him.

Its even dangerous to look at who contributed last year – ie Beatty for the Giants had to play a couple games and looked alright. This preseason, he looked godawful, and many Giants fans are not nearly as high as him, many are beginning to doubt that 09 draft class. Nicks is the only guy whose looked like starting material recently

So imo, OCC has the right idea with this post – you can really only look at roster/nfl retention rates when you’re within 1 year of a draft, and ours looks pretty good

I think the only thing you can take away from this is roster retention rates.

by foyesboys on Sep 7, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Brewster, Williams, McGee....

all have “project” on their helmets. It’s hard to know but some of the oline mentioned are further ahead and would have been more meaningful.

by Cwon1 on Sep 6, 2010 8:29 PM CDT reply actions  

I think you misspelled a name on the Cowboys roster

It appears the 7th round pick in 2010’s supplemental draft for the Cowboys last name is spelled Brent. You spelled it Price. Must have been a typo.

Insert pithy statement here.

by Markythearky on Sep 6, 2010 8:34 PM CDT reply actions  

He used to use a hyphenated last name, I think

I believe it was Brent-Price, although that may be backwards. After he signed, he apparently said he wanted to be known as Brent.

If at first you don't succeed - blame someone else.

by Tom Ryle on Sep 6, 2010 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

No, no, you were right all along.

It was a typo. You see, on German keyboards the letters PRICE and BRENT are right next to each other, so it was indeed a typo, not just general lack of attention to detail on my part.

by One.Cool.Customer on Sep 7, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

DeAngelo Smith

Saw where he was resigned by the Browns to the practice squad. Not a huge change in your form. Wish that was one that could have panned out.

by Chris in Va on Sep 6, 2010 9:53 PM CDT reply actions  

One comment

The Giants only like carrying 2 QB’s on the 53 man roster and this explains why Bomar is on the PS for a second year – I would expect him to be the No 2 QB in 2011.

So can we split the difference and say the Giants have 12.5/14.5 out of 16 picks simply due to the fact they do not carry a 3rd QB on match day.

The Giants hoped to have Brown on the PS as well but he was claimed by the Broncos – so that would drop the figure by one.

by G Fan in England on Sep 7, 2010 6:01 AM CDT reply actions  

How about 3 Years

What’;s the tale of the tape for 3 years or 4 years of drafts? How would we stand up?

by cowboyjohn on Sep 7, 2010 7:33 AM CDT reply actions  

Hodge is on PUP,

He’ll be eligible for the 53 after 7 or 8 weeks. Maybe he’s doing well in rehab and coaches think he might be able to contribute later in the season. And they’re basing all this on just a couple of weeks of preseason work last year. Yes, LAST year.

Deaf as a stone, dumb as a Bohr.

by Deef Chief on Sep 7, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

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