Going from 6th to 9th in the NFL Draft
by Requiem on Jan 2, 2011 7:42 PM CST
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Since there seems to be some confusion as to where the Cowboys slot in the draft, I decided to make a small post to describe:
- How I arrive at the Cowboys' Draft Position
- Where the Cowboys sit wrt the Draft
- What the impact winning in Philly has on the Cowboys's Draft value
How Draft Positioning Works
From Wikipedia, the relevant lines are:
- Teams that did not make the playoffs are ordered by their regular-season record.
- Remaining ties are broken by strength of schedule. For draft order, a lower strength of schedule results in an earlier pick.
So, head-to-head matchups do NOT matter in determining draft position.
Draft Order
| Draft Position | Record | SOS (where applicable) |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Carolina | 2-14 | 0.574 |
| 2. Denver | 4-12 | 0.516 |
| 3. Buffalo | 4-12 | 0.578 |
| 4. Cincinnati | 4-12 | 0.582 |
| 5. Arizona | 5-11 | 0.465 |
| * Where Dallas would have slotted with a loss | 5-11 | 0.520 |
| 6. Cleveland | 5-11 | 0.570 |
| 7. San Francisco | 6-10 | 0.488 |
| 8. Tennessee | 6-10 | 0.508 |
| 9. Dallas | 6-10 | 0.512 |
| 10. Washington | 6-10 | 0.516 |
| 11. Houston | 6-10 | 0.523 |
| 12. Minnesota | 6-10 | 0.539 |
| 13. Detroit | 6-10 | 0.543 |
| 14. St. Louis | 7-9 | 0.449 |
| 15. Miami | 7-9 | 0.539 |
| 16. Jacksonville | 8-8 | 0.453 |
| 17. New England (from Oakland) | 8-8 | 0.469 |
| 18. San Diego | 9-7 | 0.457 |
| 19. NY Giants | 10-6 | 0.453 |
| 20. Tampa Bay | 10-6 | 0.477 |
SOS from ESPN
Implications
Using an approximate draft value spreadsheet, if the Cowboys had been in the 6th draft position for all rounds (excluding the 7th round pick they used on Brent), they would have a value of 2516. Dropping to the 9th draft position for all rounds, they have a value of 2210.3.
So, a drop from 6th to 9th equates to:
2516 - 2210.3 = 305.7 (late 2nd rounder)
Using a different draft value spreadsheet, if the Cowboys had been in the 6th draft position for all rounds, they would have a value of 2648.8. Dropping to the 9th draft position for all rounds, they have a value of 2293.9.
For this draft value spreadsheet, a drop from 6th to 9th equates to:
2648.8 - 2293.9 = 354.9 (late-mid 2nd rounder)
So, the win drops the whole Cowboys's draft value by about a late 2nd round pick. (~24-29th pick in the 2nd round).
Of course, some of you might say that the biggest drop is in the 1st round (and you'd be right). Looking at Mock Drafts around the internets, here are the non-QB/WR types of players available with the 6th pick that wouldn't be available with the 9th:
Possibly available 6th, likely not available 9th
Fairley [Auburn] (DT) - Fairly unlikely (I saw a couple of mock drafts drop him to 6th-8th, but he was mainly in top 5. The others were considerably more all over the place.)
Amukamara [Nebraska] (CB)
Dareus [Alabama] (DT/DE)
Bowers [Clemson] (DE)
Quinn [UNC] (DE/OLB)
Here are some of the non-QB/WR players who slot to go between the 9th - 13th pick:
Likely available 9th-13th
Jenkins [Florida] (CB)
Paea [Oregon State] (DT)
Jordan [Cal] (DT/DE)
Kerrigan [Purdue] (DE/OLB)
Miller [Texas A&M] (DE/OLB)
Clayborn [Iowa] (DE)
Of course, this assumes that Luck will come out next year. But it's looking quite likely that Luck will stay at Stanford. If that happens, it makes it more likely that the Cowboys will lose out on a player that they might target and less likely that one of the 5 players outlined above will slip to the Cowboys at the 9th spot.
Offensive Linemen Available 2nd half 1st round/early 2nd round
If you're interested in upgrading the offensive line, almost all mock drafts have the first OL at about 14th-24th. Here are some of the names being thrown around:
Costanzo [BC]
Sherrod [Miss St.]
Carimi [Wisconsin]
Here are some potential OL for the late 1st round/early 2nd round:
Solder [Colorado]
Love [Arkansas]
Pouncey [Florida] (C)
Wisniewski [Penn St.] (G)
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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Comments
Not a very good draft to do poorly and end up with less than a top five pick.
All the top-ten value will be gone in the top five or six, maybe seven.
Amended:
Unless you want a quarterback. Which we don’t.
by Admiral Dallas on Jan 2, 2011 8:07 PM CST up reply actions
I will honestly be okay with
the Wisconsin LT, Gabe Cabrimi (sorry for spelling)
2010 Fantasy Football champion for the BTB League on Yahoo!
IIRC
When it comes to the draft, Strength of Schedule factors ahead of head-to-head.
by Admiral Dallas on Jan 2, 2011 8:36 PM CST up reply actions
i'm hoping for a qb run early
which leaves the cowboys a great DL..or DB pick
if we have to play it safe
Take Cameron Jordan or Derrek Sherrod
taking Sherrod gives us a starting RT, and then the 2nd rd we can take a S and the 3rd a DE or OL
kinda gives us alot of options
hey its still a top ten pick, im not mad at that
Good breakdown!
I think we have a couple good options in the 1st: Cameron Jordan, Derek Sherrod, or a small trade down for Gabe Carimi/Tyron Smith or maybe even secondary help (Rahim Moore?). I would be happy with any of those scenarios. We probably were just missing on getting Fairley or Peterson at 6 anyway.
Forgot to mention
Prince, Dareus, and Quinn are all intriguing if they slip, but all 3 pose questions too. Regardless, we are going to get a good player.
Seems like a trade down...
is a lot more likely now. Unless an elite player drops, odd are they could drop 5-8 slots and still have their pick of a few players they would like.
Just depends on what they want to get...
I suppose. Which has a lot to do with FA. So I suppose we are way premature with all of this. haha
by Nate Pennock on Jan 2, 2011 10:22 PM CST up reply actions
It is early January.....
A lot could change from now until April, and I don’t care who you are, no one can predict the draft, anyone could fall.
I'm not so sure all of those guys will be gone
I know it seems like most of those guys on your list will be gone @ 9, but if you look at the team needs above us. There is a reasonable chance we still get one of the premier non QB/WR prospects in the draft.
CAR/BUF/ARI/SF/TEN all have QB needs.
Cleveland has major WR needs.
If most of those things come true. One of Petersen, Prince, Dareus, Bowers, Quinn, Fairley could easily fall to us.
Quite possibly
Unfortunately, there aren’t enough good QB’s to fill all those teams.
CAR – Has Claussen and Moore, but if Luck declares, they’re picking him.
BUF – Seem like they’re ok with Fitzpatrick, but it’s quite possible they’ll go for Mallett or Newton.
ARI – Almost guaranteed to pick a QB.
SF – Pretty likely to pick a QB, but Locker might be considered a stretch, though he is essentially the last of the big 4.
TEN – Seem pretty committed to Vince Young. That’s why there are all those rumors of Fisher leaving the Titans…
So, IF Luck comes out, you’re right in that there’s a very good possibility that at least one of the top 6 defensive players will fall to us.
Luck
Mallett
Newton (possibly)
Locker (possibly)
along with:
Green
Jones (by Cleveland, assuming Green gets drafted early)
being drafted which would likely leave:
4 to 1 of the aforementioned players to the Cowboys.
However, IF Luck doesn’t declare, it’s quite possible for the Cowboys to get shut out of the potential targets….
Anyways, it was more of an exercise in looking at mock drafts, so it’s not definitive by any means.
Oh I agree
And obviously tons and tons of things could change between now and then. Some of the OL could fly up the boards, some of the DE’s might be too small to play in a 3/4. Who knows.
When we won today, my initial reaction was basically exactly what you typed above. We were going to be shut out of the elite talent, and be picking too early to get a OL without reaching. But when I looked at the teams that jumped us, I felt a little better.
Agreed
In fact, I’d say that was the impetus for my trying to figure out where exactly the Cowboys stood.
I was thinking that the Cowboys had blown it by beating the Eagles at the last minute, but after all the research, I saw that, essentially, they were losing about a late 2nd round pick which isn’t THAT bad.
Hopefully, Luck declares, and we don’t really have to worry that much about not having a good potential target to draft in the first round.
Of course, like you said, there’s a lot that can change between now and April.
Remeber the Eagles have Kolb and Vick both.
I seriously doubt they will keep both due to cap reasons under the new CBA which will almost certainly bring back a cap. Thus look for a big trade for one of them.
If it happens with a team picking in front of or behind us, who knows.
Nice write, Requiem
saved me the trouble of doing something similar, so it’s auto-rec’d
by One.Cool.Customer on Jan 3, 2011 2:23 AM CST reply actions
3 spots is nothing
Glad we got the win as we’ll still get a big time impact player at #9 no doubt.
In Romo we Trust
Interesting take from Jerry Jones
“I would rather have the positive of the last game win than three or so slots in the draft. We may end up with the same player anyway.” Source: Star-Telegram
Who might that “same player anyway” be, and is this a hint that Jerry is already thinking about trading down?
by One.Cool.Customer on Jan 3, 2011 8:21 AM CST up reply actions
Or...
that they already have their eye on someone that others might have considered a reach at 5-6, but they considered a perfect fit? With Jerry, ya just don’t know.LOL
Rabid and luvin' it
Since I am one of the first to bash JJ and his crazy talk,
I have to give him credit for this statement. First time I have agreed with something he said in a long time (or even understood, for that matter).
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Jan 4, 2011 4:36 PM CST up reply actions
JJ also neglected to mention......
that from sliding from 6 down to 9 that he pretty much saves approx. $10mill in guaranteed money…unless rookie contracts are addressed in the new CBA
keep that in mind
go Kitna!
Is that a subtle...
big time impact player at #9
Romo-reference? Is it that embedded in your neural pathways? It happens without you realizing it? Has it come to that? Has it affected you that deeply?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Am I sh!t-disturbing, mixing the pot and sending you off on an amusing, to-be-expected-of-Terry tangent? ;)
Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, Sloth.
5 outta 7 ain't bad. Working on the other 2.
nice work requiem.thanks.
so winning was’nt the great “disaster” some posters made it out to be?.
Davie Wilson
"how bout them cowboys"!!!
I'd still prefer the 6th pick in every round over the 9th.
But it’s better than the 12th or 13th like I originally thought we would end up at.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Luck's got a game tonight...
Then it’s decision time for him. Weighing the possibility (likelihood?) of a Stanford coaching change, the graduation of much of his protection, what he thinks of the guys stepping into those roles, his views on the worth of being possibly #1 and what that entails for him personally, his staying in college and everything that entails, it’s a lot for a guy to consider.
Sure would cause a lot of draft-focused guys to be shifting their views if he decided not to declare. Reason why looking at draft prior to Jan 19 (one day after underclassmen can withdraw their declaration) is more speculative than afterwards.
Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, Sloth.
5 outta 7 ain't bad. Working on the other 2.
btw, recommended reading for all, not just "lose-game-for-positioning" types
No-brainer rec’d.
Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, Sloth.
5 outta 7 ain't bad. Working on the other 2.
Luck is coming out for one major reason...
his head coach is also jumping ship.
Nice job, Requiem.
"You can't live a perfect day without doing something for someone who will never be able to repay you."
- John Wooden (God rest his soul)
I think that as well.
I expect Jim Harbaugh to be donning maize and blue soon.
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
One Hundred Million Reasons
Cake or Death?
Broadcaster said: His entire OL are all 5th year seniors.
The Cardinal will fly the coup, and little Jimmy Clawson is in a pickle.
Expect more players from several teams to declare.
Golden Rule: He who has the gold makes the rules.
I dont think that's true
Luck best OLineman is the Left Tackle who is a Junior and expected to return to school. That was the information I heard.
Good info
Well done, good post.
Only thing I would add is that at 9 I still think there is a chance at CB Akumara (or Peterson depending) and DT Fairley. I am happy with the Top 10 pick and a win over the Eagles.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
It's a pretty fat chance I'd say.
But possible nonetheless. Hard to say right now. We’ll have a clearer idea after the combine.
"The Angels are like the villain in the movie that isn't dead until he's been stabbed 150 times in the bath tub, yet he still might come back up one more time." - Eric Nadel
Nice Post - It's all about the QBs
Everyone knows that if Luck comes out, he’s going first. I also think Mallett and Newton (assuming they have good bowl games) will go in the top 10. If that’s the case, there are only 5 more picks to be made prior to Dallas.
Here’s the most common guys mentioned in the Top 10 picks (outside QBs):
DaQuan Bowers
Nick Fairley
AJ Green
Patrick Peterson
Prince Amukamara
Marcell Dareus
Julio Jones
Robert Quinn
So, at least 3 of these guys will be availble. Here’s my best guess as of now:
Car – Luck
Den – Peterson
Buff – Fairley
Cincy – Green
Zona – Mallett
Cle – Bowers
SF – Newton
Tenn – Dareus
DALL – Prince?
Sounds good to me. I think a DB is exactly what this team needs. Draft a young Corner, sign a Safety and O Lineman in Free Agency. Draft another O Lineman in the 2nd. Maybe Casey Matthews in the third round. That team could win the division.
I'm very skeptical...
I just can’t see so many teams picking qbs in the top 10. That trend had stopped in recent years. I think at least some of these guys will suffer precipitous falls. Newton seems like a huge risk to me.
I don't agree at all
QB’s get taken early when good QB’s are there to be taken. QB’s seem to rise up boards every single year. Look at Mark Sanchez.
If Newton/Mallett/Locker have good workouts, they will probably go fairly high.
Why would any NFL team take Newton in the first round?
I mean, I know we went through this with Tebow, but consider this…
How good a passer is Newton? Not very at all. He’s a rushing QB, but he’s not even that fast. He used his size to dominate in the SEC, not his speed or arm. If I’m an Arizona or San Francisco fan, I’m praying to the football gods that my team doesn’t take Newton as our franchise quarterback.
by Admiral Dallas on Jan 3, 2011 6:12 PM CST up reply actions
He's not as bad as you think
Newton is a much better passer than Tebow. Has a stronger arm and better mechanics. He’s raw, but his upside is way higher than Tebow imo.
his upside is higher..
but hes still a huge risk. And teams seem less willing as years go by to spend 20+million in guaranteed money on unproven players. QBs recently, aside from sanchez and #1 picks, have dropped down in the draft.
Eh, you can't just blindly compare previous years
The prospects coming out this year are some of the best to come out in a while. I’d say Cam/Mallett/Luck are all better prospects than Sanchez, which in turn makes them better than a lot of the prospects to come out in recent years.
Gabbert now
Really good crop. I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but this could be a draft like 1983
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
Cam will definitely go first round, probably Top 10
He’s a better prospect than Vince Young who went 3rd. He’s a better prospect than Tim Tebow who went 25th. Have you watched the guy play? He’s amazing. Some of the ‘running QBs’ havent panned out, but he looks better than all of them to me.
With the seccess Michael Vick has had this year, I think more teams will consider going with a guy like this and trying to coach up his potential. Cam is twice the passer Vick was coming out of college.
tremendous college qb
not really convinced he’ll make a good pro prospect. BTW, Vick is fool’s gold, he’ll come back to earth during the playoffs as he’s started that decent already lately.
In Romo we Trust
+1
Cam is the real deal . . . he has a bit of Vick, Vince and Tebow . . . lucky for Dallas . . . maybe someone will want the number 9 pick and offer Dallas a one next year, their one this year plus a two and a four this year.
You're dreaming
That’s way to much for the #9 pick. Your offer was top 3 material. The #9 pick pick could probably fetch a 1 this year and a 1 next, or maybe less depending on where that team is drafting. If we were only going to fall 3 or 4 slots, we might only get a 1st and 3rd or something.
they also drop down boards...
Aaron Rodgers, Brady Quinn, Clausen, McCoy
Req, rec'd
"You have to have the fighting spirit. You have to force moves and take chances" (Bobby Fischer)
Who did the post about building a team up the middle vs. the edges?
Taking a CB this high , I don’t know. I’d much much prefer OL or DL, or an impact LB or safety if one’s available, unless there’s a huge gap in ability.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
Right on, Realist!
I like building up the middle as well, HOWEVER, there really arent any players from the OL, ILB or even Safety worth the 9th overall pick. At least not at this point. There are a few DL like Fairley and Bowers, but they will most likely be gone.
Fairley would be a good fit in our Defense, but I dont know where Bowers would play. He’s probably too small to play DE. I’m not so sure I’m ready to give up on Spencer just yet at OLB.
I don't think Sherrod (LT) would be that much of a reach at #9.
Only a few spots out of place value. Free can move back to RT.
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Jan 4, 2011 4:42 PM CST up reply actions
I thought Sherrod was a RT
at least that’s what my sources (a team of crack pot unpaied employees I like to call the internet) tell me
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
Miss. St. website has him at LT.
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Jan 4, 2011 4:55 PM CST up reply actions
I might've been thinking of the guy from Boston College
or Solder from Colordo
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
Solder from Colorado
is very unique . . . he is extraordinarily athletic . . . would match very well with Free and could be a backup plan for LT . . . start Solder at RT but if Free is hurt, then you move Solder over to left, and have a right tackle ready to go to keep on plugging. Solder might even be capable of supplanting Free at left and move Free back to right tackle.
Then trade back
Think about it. If Sherrod is your guy, great. But it’s pretty commonly believed that no OL will be selected before roughly the 15th – 20th pick. So, if that’s the case, trade back. Even if you dont pick up much, its still something.
For instance, you could make a trade with the team with the 15th pick and pick up their third rounder and still pick Sherrod. Now you’ve added a 3rd round pick. And that’s taking pennies on the dollar value-wise for Dallas. But would you rather pick Sherrod at 9th or Sherrod at 15th and gain a 3rd round pick.
If you take Sherrod at 9th, you are leaving value on the table. You hurt your franchise that way. You need to maximize the value in the draft.
I find it hard to believe that no O-lineman will be taken before #15.
Someone will reach. Still though, I do think we should trade back assuming someone doesn’t tumble down the draft.
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
It's just too early to say no one would be good enough
Not talking to you personally, but overall I laugh at how all the “experts” heer feel they have the draft pegged-in January!!
Plenty will change between then and now-more players will come out, guys will move up and down boards, teams in front of us will make stupid picks……
When the time comes, I hope they go middle and not edges, but if a guy’s a stud CB that’s OK.
I liked the Newman pick at the time.
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
by Realist Larry on Jan 4, 2011 7:38 PM CST up reply actions
That's why you're the realist. :)
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
True, Realist, but that's the information we have to work with today
Can’t predict the future, so this is all we have to work with.
Yes, but sometimes 4 months of this makes my head explode like the picture below!
I get excited about the draft as much to have something new to discuss as to see who Dallas gets! By April these threads get old, lol
Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009
by Realist Larry on Jan 5, 2011 5:56 PM CST up reply actions
if you hadn't noticed
I linked to your fanpost from a front page story earlier today. good work Req.
FLOOD THE BLOCK RADIO, TUESDAY NITES 730p EST, WWW.ROCKTHEFLOW.COM
Thanks for all the kind words, guys!
Just thought if I was doing some work that was interesting to me, that I might as well share it so that others don’t have to reinvent the wheel :).
Thanks again!
Andrew Luck
The Cowboys should attempt to package their #1, #3, Romo and any player except Ware for the #1 pick. Andrew Luck is going to be that good and would be to our franchise what Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach were. The Dallas Cowboys would be set with a franchise quarterback for at least a decade. The entire outlook of the Dallas Cowboys would immediately change for the better.
There are numerous recent examples of rookie quarterbacks having success immediately, especially on teams with talent. Just think about Andrew Luck, Dez Bryant and Miles Austin for the next five years. We know the status quo doesn’t work. We have been beating our heads against the wall since Aikman retired. A bold move is needed to jumpstart this team and point it in the right direction, and a move for Luck is just the ticket.
It’s highly unlikely Carolina would bite, but it behooves Jerry to at least make his best offer.
Sigh. Are you serious? You would trade Romo, two very high picks and any other player except Ware just for the right to draft an unproven quarterback from Stanford? This is something Tex would say, and it’s just insane.
by Boundforbeach on Jan 4, 2011 8:12 AM CST up reply actions
OK
Let’s just keep tweaking our roster that has proven to be average, hum drum. Well, my hopes and expectations for this team are just a bit higher than one playoff victory in 10+ years. Major change is needed, and Luck represents great opportunity to make a major upgrade at the most important position on the roster, not to mention getting 8 years younger at the position.
The status quo is not working.
Our defense would still suck
and Luck would be playing from behind on the scoreboard and behind an OL that would get him killed.
Absolutely the worst way to go. So wrong that I cannot believe I actually replied to it.
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Jan 4, 2011 4:46 PM CST up reply actions
Are you trying to give Terry a stroke?
Lifelong Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
My Beer Blog: http://tiltingsuds.wordpress.com/
LOL was going to say same thing :)
Davie Wilson
"how bout them cowboys"!!!
by scotscowboyfan on Jan 4, 2011 8:16 AM CST up reply actions
Do you remember when people were trying to decide between Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf?
Exactly
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
The (minimal) risk is worth it
Is Andrew Luck a sure thing? Of course he isn’t; no player is. However, everything I have read, including the opinions of people I have come to trust and respect the most, have indicated that the probability for Andrew Luck being an outstanding NFL quarterback is very high.
For me, it comes right back to what I originally wrote: We know the status quo doesn’t work. We have been beating our heads against the wall since Aikman retired. A bold move is needed to jumpstart this team and point it in the right direction, and a move for Luck is just the ticket.
If I liked the position the team was in right now or the direction it is heading, I wouldn’t think a bold move with some risk is necessary. However, I think the probability of success with the current roster is very low. Hence my position of making a somewhat-risky move that has the potential for a huge payoff. And really, exactly what are we risking? The status quo is not working. This team just went 6-10 and has one playoff victory since…what, the 1990’s? Risk? So Luck doesn’t pan out. Oh well. It’s not like we are going to accomplish anything in the next few years with this roster anyway.
That's where I have to disagree with you,
The NFL is a leauge of Parity. The Saints sucked for years, and are now defending Superbowl Champions. Who really thought the KC Chiefs would be any good this year? You are basically morgatging away any shot this team has at doing anything in the next 5 years so that you can get a guy who has a risk, however minimal, of going the way of Ryan Leaf. You could turn out to be right, I just don’t think it’s a good move.
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
I hear ya
Your position has merit, no doubt.
I somewhat disagree with your parity assertion/argument. I think parity applies to teams without great quarterbacks. Teams with average and even sub-par quarterbacks are always moving in and out of playoff slots as the years go by, but rarely do they win it all. However, parity often does not apply to teams with great quarterbacks – guys like Manning, Brady, Aikman, etc. will nearly always get their teams into the playoffs and most of the time they make some noise when they get there.
I find it very interesting that you used the New Orleans Saints as your example. Exactly why did they move from also-rans to Super Bowl champs? The biggest reason is that they made a bold move for Drew Brees, a Franchise Quarterback, top-5 in the NFL in almost everyone’s judgment. That move jumpstarted everything.
Regarding the Cowboys, it really comes down to your belief in Tony Romo. If you believe he is a top-10 quarterback who is on the verge of moving into the elite top-5 class, then a move for Andrew Luck doesn’t make any sense. However, if you believe Tony Romo is a middle-of-the-road guy, whose nice stats are a product of the system and who won’t ever be special – well then a move in a different direction seems to make a lot of sense. That’s the position I’m coming from. I want a new Troy Aikman. I want a Tom Brady or a Drew Brees. And I’m willing to keep taking risks until we hit on it because it is unlikely that the Dallas Cowboys will win another Super Bowl without that great quarterback.
by Cowboy.Louie on Jan 4, 2011 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
The funny thing about Brees was that he was fired from the Chargers because they didn't think he could be that guy
instead they went with Phillips Rivers. So again the argument goes both ways. I’ve seen teams win Superbowls without elite QBs… I.E. The Steelers.
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
Brees also tore up his shoulder if I recall. There was some question as to whether he'd ever be the same player again
Lifelong Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
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your argument has no merit since we already have a great qb
Saints were 6-10 before they won the SB the next year…again you’re wrong as usual.
In Romo we Trust
Not offense, but you are making my head explode
I guess we can debate whether you think Luck is already better than Romo and will last longer than Romo. (I don’t agree on the first and luck and injuries are fickle so how long he would last is not certain).
But to give up a top ten 1st AND 3rd round pick and any other player (besides Ware) and think this team will immediately be better is kind of crazy. If you want, you can say we immediately improve our offense (debatable, and tough seeing our offensive stats, etc.) but it will then be a rebuilding year. We also won’t have a capable o-line, or defense to help Luck win games. It will be a rebuilding year or two.
You are right, the argument is based on whether you think Romo is good or just an average QB benefiting from the system. But you can’t consider Luck a lock (to even enter the draft much less be the next Payton Manning). You want to gamble BIG, I get it, I just don’t agree.
And for the record, I think Romo is a top 10 QB and could/should become an elite top 5 next year…I doubt Luck will be until his 3rd year (if ever). I know young Qbs have been playing well. But do you think Matt Ryan, M. Stafford, Bradford, J. Freeman are better than Romo right now? I don’t.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
Please don't let your head explode!
I think you’re attributing many argument to me that I’m not making or spinning them to your advantage. To wit:
I guess we can debate whether you think Luck is already better than Romo and will last longer than Romo. I never said Luck was better than Romo right now. I do, however, think he will become substantially better than Romo within a few years and there is a very good chance that if he is a good NFL quarterback he will last quite a few years longer simply because he is younger.
But to give up a top ten 1st AND 3rd round pick and any other player (besides Ware) and think this team will immediately be better is kind of crazy. Did I say the Cowboys would be immediately better? Nope, I do not believe I made that argument. I do believe that that it is in the best long-term interest of the franchise though.
We also won’t have a capable o-line, or defense to help Luck win games. It will be a rebuilding year or two. Then it will be a rebuilding year or two with Romo or Luck, after which Romo will be 33. If you believe the Cowboys are in for a couple years of rebuilding then it makes less sense to keep Romo than ever.
You are right, the argument is based on whether you think Romo is good or just an average QB benefiting from the system. But you can’t consider Luck a lock (to even enter the draft much less to be the next Payton Manning). I never said Luck was a lock to be great. I said there is a high probability of success. And I assumed that this entire point was predicated on Luck entering the draft.
You want to gamble BIG, I get it, I just don’t agree. It’s only gambling BIG if you think the future for the Cowboys is bright for the next 2-3 years. I do not, so I don’t see it as that big a gamble. In fact, I see sitting on the status quo and hoping for a different result as a bigger gamble.
I know young Qbs have been playing well. But do you think Matt Ryan, M. Stafford, Bradford, J. Freeman are better than Romo right now? I don’t. You bet I do. I believe Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford and Josh Freeman will be better than Tony Romo in 2011. I would love to trade Romo straight-up for any one of those guys right now. I do not believe we have seen enough of Stafford to make that call.
So our disagreement runs deeper than I thought
I disagree that if we draft Luck by trading 1st and 3rd round picks
The entire outlook of the Dallas Cowboys would immediately change for the better.
In fact, we would be worse next year than we would otherwise.
I also disagree that
Then it will be a rebuilding year or two with Romo or Luck, after which Romo will be 33. If you believe the Cowboys are in for a couple years of rebuilding then it makes less sense to keep Romo than ever.
It’s only gambling BIG if you think the future for the Cowboys is bright for the next 2-3 years.
I think a few bad positions (right side of o-line, safeties, Dline) were the majority of our problems…coupled with bad coaching prior to JG and the season seems a disaster. If we use the 1st and 3rd round picks for positions of need, then it isn’t a rebuilding year. With a few smart FA pickups, we are contenders again next year. Do you really think this team is THAT bad that we will be rebuilding for the next 2-3 years with no success? There is our biggest disagreement.
You (should) know Romo is better than all those young QBs that you would trade for in an instant, his stats and ProBowls prove that. And forget his age. He doesn’t have the wear and tear that would mean he gets worse in 2-3 years when he is 33 (ps, Payton Manning is 34). He is geting better every season and has quite a few good years in front of him. This team does have drastic needs (safety, RG, RT) but trading a 1st and 3rd for a QB would make next year worse, not better. As for the status quo, I think we all want that to change, ie. improve o-line and get a real safety. I don’t see why you think status quo equates to relying on Romo to take us to the promise land. In fact, i think the Luck draft pick would be the classic Jerry Jones “I like shiny things” move and will neglect the REAL needs of the team…and thus continue the status quo that you keep referring to.
"Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it's so incredible, it's unbelievable."
"Leadership is a matter of having people look at you and gain confidence, seeing how you react. If you're in control, they're in control." - Tom Landry
No they shouldn't Romo's biggest hater
Cowboys already have a franchise qb, would be foolish to give away all those picks for nothing.
In Romo we Trust
I disagree
1proudterp is Romo’s biggest hater, and maybe BleedBlueStar, if anything he comes in at a distant 3rd
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
Its just too much money and we need too much help elsewhere...
I have similar feelings about Luck. I think he will step in day 1 for someone and be a legitimate qb. In a couple years, I think he could be the best qb in the game given Manning and Brady’s age. In terms of value, our #1 and Romo (very cap friendly deal for a proven top qb) would do it I would think.
But think about the $$$. He is going to command an absurd contract. Heck, he is going to be one of the highest paid players in the league (something like 6 years, 83 mil if previous years are any indication..with like 53 million guaranteed). On top of that, we don’t have a line – do you really want to raise a rookie qb behind this line? I love Luck, but I don’t believe anybody is destined for greatness – put him on a team that can’t protect him, and it will screw him up. Not to mention that we would be left with 5 picks and FA to fill a ridiculous number of holes on this team. RT and DE are immediate needs as Columbo cannot play and the DEs contracts are expiring. We could really use a safety and RG as well. Maybe even a LG too considering I think we may see a severe dropoff in Kosier’s play next season due to age. And then there is the depth issue, which may come into play if guys like Barber, Roy, Davis, Columbo, Brooking are all cut or not resigned.
And I don’t think Carolina would bite.
Nice
Well done as usual. You raise some very valid points. It’s nice to have an intelligent discussion with some new and interesting points as opposed to the same tired old declarations of Tony Romo as The Chosen One that we have unfortunately been endlessly subjected to on this blog for well over four years.
sorry the truth hurts old buddy
because Romo along with Garrett as HC will lead us to the promised land for sure
In Romo we Trust
generally I'm in the hardcore pro Romo camp...
in fact, I still think Romo is a good-great qb and will continue to think that going forward.
But this year is a little different for me. With a lockout possibly looming, with the state of this team (we could make the playoffs next year/whenever next year is, but we don’t have any real shot at competing for a title imo), I can see a situation where the next time we are championship contenders is when Romo is 34.
But at the same time, I am nowhere near convinced the other 3 qbs will be pro bowlers, and I wouldn’t want to introduce the controversy that would happen with picking a guy like Mallett and having Romo at the same time. Sure it could work out like with Rodgers and GB, or Rivers and SD, but I’m not convinced any of Locker/Mallet/Newton will be great pros like I am convinced Luck will be.
Brees wasn't really fired - he was caught in a salary trap
San Diego was sitting on two great quarterbacks – perhaps they underestimated Brees and took a calculated risk on a somewhat unproven Rivers, but they were in a position most teams only dream of…and they had to make a choice one way or the other because Brees wanted the franchise-type money they had already committed to Rivers. Rivers won out, perhaps only because of youth and a contract with guaranteed money. Interestingly enough, Tony Romo is at a position in his career right now that is somewhat comparable to where Drew Brees was when he left San Diego for New Orleans. Brees took his game to the next level. Will Romo? That’s the multi-million dollar question.
However, I will refute your position on the Steelers. I assuming you are referring to Roethlisberger and not Bradshaw….I think Roethlisberger is an outstanding quarterback, far ahead of Tony Romo. If he isn’t top-5 in today’s NFL then he is certainly very close. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see him win a third and even a forth Super Bowl before his career is finished.
That isn't really a refutation, but oh well
Ben Rapes-women-in-the-bathroom-because-he-is-compensating-for-something-lisberger, doesn’t have the stats to support your argument. Pittsburgh is built off an elite defense, plain and simple. Hell 3 of their first 4 games with Charlie Batch at QB, and the only one they lost to was Baltimore. So, he may have more rings, but that doesn’t mean he’s better
What's this? Mcnabb's been benched and Vick can't have a puppy? Now if Eli could just get coal in his stockings I'd have a Merry Christmas.
Disclaimer: Don’t listen to me I usually make bad decisions. Don’t take advice while operating machinery. Do not listen if you are pregnant or may become pregnant. See your GM for more advice
Yea
because the 20+ INT’s are better than Romo. Romo is on Brees’ level currently.
"Don't give up, don't ever give up."
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absolutely
Romo is top 5 qb in the NFL, his numbers prove as much. If he ever gets a defense, the playoff wins and SB titles will come.
In Romo we Trust
i dont agree with that at all.
Romo is a good regular season qb, thats what the numbers prove. Until he proves he can win championships, then maybe he’s a top 5 qb.
Romo aint won crap yet except some regular season games, 1 playoff game and a huge contract from an owner who is loose with his purse strings.
It is yet to be determined as to whether he is a championship qb, and the natives are getting restless.
qbs don't win championships, teams do
and it’s a proven fact no matter how good a qb is, he can’t win anything without a good defense. Just ask Marino and Fouts.
The definition of a championship qb is one who plays on a championship team, has really nothing to do with how good they really are in comparison to other qbs.
In Romo we Trust
arg this is a pet peeve of mine
Romo’s deal is cheap. I hate when fans bring it up. Hes in the middle of the pack in qbs. Hes getting underpaid.
Your other points are valid although they come with the usual caveats – single players don’t win championships, and Romo has been paired with a defense/oline that have often let him down. The only team I’ve seen win a championship with OL play this poor is pittsburgh and they have a lights out defense to help out Ben.
Being ahead of Washington is great for us.
Not only because it’s a division rival but they are in dire need of a QB and let’s say a team like Miami, who also needs a QB, wants to trade up to snatch up someone right ahead of them, they would most likely trade with us. I wouldn’t mind picking at 15 for some extra draft picks.
QB runs
Had the Cowboys drafted sixth I’d say there’s a good chance for Patrick Peterson. There’s going to be a string of QBs and Da’quan Bowers and Nick Fairley may jump due to a workout, and AJ Green will definitely go early, so I can easily see Peterson falling to 6th.
And with the 9th pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Dallas Cowboys select ..
Ryan Mallett, quarterback Arkansas.
But Jerrah is an Arkans-ass man!
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Jan 5, 2011 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
Arkans-ass, man!
Comma makes all the difference.
- "If you know so much about women why are you here at the Gas 'n' Sip on a Saturday night completely alone drinking beers with no women anywhere?"
- "By choice! Man"
by fan since '65 on Jan 5, 2011 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
And yet he has only taken one Razorback in the draft.
Just another Jerry myth out there.
Formerly Cowboyfan729
If I had a nickel for every time the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I would have zero nickels
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