FanPost

Going from 6th to 9th in the NFL Draft


Since there seems to be some confusion as to where the Cowboys slot in the draft, I decided to make a small post to describe:

  • How I arrive at the Cowboys' Draft Position
  • Where the Cowboys sit wrt the Draft
  • What the impact winning in Philly has on the Cowboys's Draft value

How Draft Positioning Works

From Wikipedia, the relevant lines are:

  1. Teams that did not make the playoffs are ordered by their regular-season record.
  2. Remaining ties are broken by strength of schedule. For draft order, a lower strength of schedule results in an earlier pick.

So, head-to-head matchups do NOT matter in determining draft position.

Draft Order

Draft PositionRecordSOS (where applicable)
1. Carolina 2-14 0.574
2. Denver 4-12 0.516
3. Buffalo 4-12 0.578
4. Cincinnati 4-12 0.582
5. Arizona 5-11 0.465
* Where Dallas would have slotted with a loss 5-11 0.520
6. Cleveland 5-11 0.570
7. San Francisco 6-10 0.488
8. Tennessee 6-10 0.508
9. Dallas 6-10 0.512
10. Washington 6-10 0.516
11. Houston 6-10 0.523
12. Minnesota 6-10 0.539
13. Detroit 6-10 0.543
14. St. Louis 7-9 0.449
15. Miami 7-9 0.539
16. Jacksonville 8-8 0.453
17. New England (from Oakland) 8-8 0.469
18. San Diego 9-7 0.457
19. NY Giants 10-6 0.453
20. Tampa Bay 10-6 0.477

SOS from ESPN

Implications

Using an approximate draft value spreadsheet, if the Cowboys had been in the 6th draft position for all rounds (excluding the 7th round pick they used on Brent), they would have a value of 2516. Dropping to the 9th draft position for all rounds, they have a value of 2210.3.

So, a drop from 6th to 9th equates to:

2516 - 2210.3 = 305.7 (late 2nd rounder)

Using a different draft value spreadsheet, if the Cowboys had been in the 6th draft position for all rounds, they would have a value of 2648.8. Dropping to the 9th draft position for all rounds, they have a value of 2293.9.

For this draft value spreadsheet, a drop from 6th to 9th equates to:

2648.8 - 2293.9 = 354.9 (late-mid 2nd rounder)

So, the win drops the whole Cowboys's draft value by about a late 2nd round pick. (~24-29th pick in the 2nd round).

Of course, some of you might say that the biggest drop is in the 1st round (and you'd be right). Looking at Mock Drafts around the internets, here are the non-QB/WR types of players available with the 6th pick that wouldn't be available with the 9th:

Possibly available 6th, likely not available 9th

Fairley [Auburn] (DT) - Fairly unlikely (I saw a couple of mock drafts drop him to 6th-8th, but he was mainly in top 5. The others were considerably more all over the place.)

Amukamara [Nebraska] (CB)
Dareus [Alabama] (DT/DE)
Bowers [Clemson] (DE)
Quinn [UNC] (DE/OLB)

Here are some of the non-QB/WR players who slot to go between the 9th - 13th pick:

Likely available 9th-13th

Jenkins [Florida] (CB)
Paea [Oregon State] (DT)
Jordan [Cal] (DT/DE)
Kerrigan [Purdue] (DE/OLB)
Miller [Texas A&M] (DE/OLB)
Clayborn [Iowa] (DE)

Of course, this assumes that Luck will come out next year. But it's looking quite likely that Luck will stay at Stanford. If that happens, it makes it more likely that the Cowboys will lose out on a player that they might target and less likely that one of the 5 players outlined above will slip to the Cowboys at the 9th spot.

Offensive Linemen Available 2nd half 1st round/early 2nd round

If you're interested in upgrading the offensive line, almost all mock drafts have the first OL at about 14th-24th. Here are some of the names being thrown around:

Costanzo [BC]
Sherrod [Miss St.]
Carimi [Wisconsin]

Here are some potential OL for the late 1st round/early 2nd round:

Solder [Colorado]
Love [Arkansas]
Pouncey [Florida] (C)
Wisniewski [Penn St.] (G)

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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