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Sunday Morning Bloody Mary: Containing Big Game Performances Key To Cowboys Future Success

300+ yards passing, 100+ yards rushing and 100+ yards receiving are statistical milestones that are correctly labeled as 'Big Games' for the players who achieve them. When a player puts up those kinds of numbers, he was at least very successful, perhaps even dominant against the opponent.

Depending on the type of fantasy football league you were playing in, 100-yard rushers, 100-yard receivers and 300-yard passers could be highly rewarding if you had them on your roster. But do big game performances help teams win games in the real world of the NFL?

Few things are more exciting for a Cowboys fan than watching Tony Romo or Jon Kitna pass for more than 300 yards (and win), Miles Austin notch another 100+ yards receiving day and the occasional 100+ yards rushing game by one of the three Cowboys running backs. But few things are more disheartening than seeing opposing offenses do the same to the Cowboys. After all, for every big game performance by an offensive player, there is a defense that allowed those performances.

Despite their 6-10 record, the Cowboys did manage to put together a number of big game performances. But they also gave up quite a few. Read on to find out who the big game players were last season and which teams came out ahead in the big game column.

Star-divide

1. 300+ Passers

Player Team 300+ games
Drew Brees Saints 7
Peyton Manning Colts 7
Matt Schaub Texans 7
Kyle Orton Broncos 6
Philip Rivers Chargers 6
Aaron Rodgers Packers 5
Tom Brady Patriots 4
Jon Kitna Cowboys 4
Eli Manning Giants 4
Carson Palmer Bengals 4

Quarterbacks passed for 300 or more yards 96 times in 2010. That's just shy of the NFL record of 104 set in 2009, but easily ahead of the third place mark of 76 from the 2008 season. If you needed any more evidence that the NFL has become a passing league, this is it.

In 2009, Tony Romo had his highest career season total with eight 300+ games. He had notched 2 more to start the season before his injury. Jon Kitna added four more 300+ games to give the Cowboys a total of six such games last year, tied for fourth in the league.

But passing for more than three hundred yards was by no means a guarantee that a team would win. The combined record of the 10 Sir Pass-A-Lots in the table on the right is 24-30, or .444. In 2009, the nine QBs with five or more 300+ games had a W/L record of 48-13, or .787. This could be an indication that the passing game hit a bump in 2010, but is more likely due to some of the big game offenses (DEN, DAL, HOU, CIN, IND) fielding some of the worst defenses in the league last year.

In total, 35 QBs threw for 300+ yards at least once in the 2010 season. The combined W-L record of all QBs in 300+ passing games: 47-49, or .489.

The Dallas defense last year allowed five 300+ yard passing games, up from just one the year before. That Peyton Manning and Drew Brees would each record a 300+ passing fest against the Cowboys is not surprising. That Eli Manning did it twice is perhaps less surprising than infuriating, and that even Rex Grossman would have one against the Cowboys is downright shameful.

2. 100+ Receivers

Player Team 100+ games
Mike Wallace Steelers 7
Andre Johnson Texans 6
Brandon Lloyd Broncos 6
Miles Austin Cowboys 5
Dwayne Bowe Chiefs 5
Greg Jennings
Packers 5
Roddy White
Falcons 5

In total, a receiver notched more than 100 yards receiving 181 times last season. 93 different receivers recorded at least one 100+ yards receiving game in 2010, eclipsing the old record of 78 set just a year earlier in 2009.

The combined W-L record of the seven receivers listed on the left in games in which their receiving yards exceeded 100 is 19-20, or .487.

Miles Austin holds the dubious distinction of being the only one among this elite group of receivers to have recorded all his 100+ yard receiving efforts in losses. His five-game total in 2010 matches his total from the 2009 campaign. Jason Witten, Dez Bryant and Roy Williams each had one 100+ yard receiving game, bringing the Cowboys total to eight games, tied for sixth most in the league.

Overall, a 100+ yard receiving game was not strongly correlated to winning in 2010. The W/L record of teams in games with a 100+ yard receiver is 97-84, significantly down from the 103-60 in 2009, another indication that some of the big play offenses did not have the success they had in previous years.

The Cowboys allowed nine receivers to rack up 100 yards or more against them in 2010, including two in one game when the Giants' Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith ran all over the Cowboys secondary in week 7. Those nine receivers are tied for third most allowed in the league. In 2009, the Cowboys allowed only four receivers to surpass the 100 yards mark. It should not come as a big surprise that three out of the four were to Giants wide receivers: Steve Smith (twice) and Mario Manningham, as well as the Chargers' Vincent Jackson

3. 100+ Rushers

Player Team 100+ games
Arian Foster
Texans 8
Chris Johnson Titans 8
Michael Turner Falcons 7
Darren McFadden Raiders 6
Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars 6
Adrian Peterson Vikings 5
Peyton Hillis Browns 5

44 different Running backs rushed for 100+ yards 124 times in 2010.

The combined W-L record of the seven running backs listed on the right in games where they rushed for 100+ yards is 32-14, or .696,  the W/L record for all 124 100+ yard games is 90-34, or .726.

No Cowboys running back came close to the top of this list. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice each had one 100+ yards rushing game, Marion Barber did not.

The Cowboys did play against three of the running backs in the list, Foster, Johnson and Jones-Drew. All three gashed the Cowboys for more than 100 yards. In total, the Cowboys gave up five 100+ yard rushing performances. In 2009, the Dallas defense allowed exactly zero, nada, zilch, 100+ yards rushing games by a single running back. Those were the days.

The Cowboys' big play performances on offense dropped from 19 in 2009 to 16 in 2010, quite remarkable considering that the starting QB was out for the majority of the season.

In 2009, the Cowboys defense gave up five big play performances (1x passing, 4x receiving). In 2010 that number ballooned to 19. Rob Ryan's assignment for next season is to figure out out how to keep the opposing offense's big game weapons in check. Especially the Giants' wide receivers.

Ranking NFL teams by Big Game Performances, 2010 (Click on the column heading to sort by column)

Team 300+ yds passing games
100+ yds receiving games 100+yds rushing games 300+ yds passing allowed 100+ yds receiving allowed 100+ yds rushing allowed
Big Game Differential
SD 6 9 4 0 4 3 12
PIT 3 11 3 2 5 0 10
NO 7 6 2 2 2 3 8
NYG 4 9 6 3 5 4 7
GB 5 10 1 3 4 3 6
OAK 2 5 8 2 3 5 5
SF 2 6 5 2 6 0 5
CIN 4 8 3 2 5 4 4
HOU 7 9 8 6 10 4 4
IND 7 8 2 2 4 7 4
KC 2 5 6 1 5 3 4
PHI 4 7 6 3 9 2 3
MIN 1 4 5 1 4 3 2
NE 4 7 2 5 6 1 1
DEN 7 8 2 5 4 8 0
MIA 3 6 0 2 5 2 0
ATL 1 6 8 5 7 4 -1
NYJ 2 4 3 2 7 1 -1
CAR 1 1 4 2 2 4 -2
JAC 1 3 9 5 5 5 -2
DAL 6 8 2 5 9 5 -3
STL 1 1 4 2 4 3 -3
DET 3 7 1 3 6 6 -4
BUF 2 5 3 1 5 9 -5
CLE 0 1 5 2 5 4 -5
CHI 1 3 3 4 7 2 -6
TB 0 2 4 0 4 8 -6
BAL 1 4 2 5 6 3 -7
TEN 1 4 8 8 9 3 -7
WAS 5 4 3 4 10 5 -7
ARI 1 6 2 2 8 7 -8
SEA 2 4 0 5 6 3 -8

 

ENJOY WITH ABSOLUT RESPONSIBILITY®

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Curious what the flip-side stats say

Of those listed, only see one “big-game” QB, 2 WRs and zero rushers playing today. Have to go all the way to #26 in teams to get today’s contenders all in.

Different def of “big game”, granted. Just curious.

Besides, wouldn’t limiting “big-game” sort of be “important” in any team having “winning” stats?

Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, Sloth.
5 outta 7 ain't bad. Working on the other 2.

by tanstaafl on Jan 23, 2011 10:06 AM CST reply actions  

Interesting Stat:

some of the big game offenses (DEN, DAL, HOU, CIN, IND) fielding some of the worst defenses in the league last year.

by Iowacowboy on Jan 23, 2011 10:18 AM CST reply actions  

Interesting stat

No team that’s ever held it’s opponent scoreless has ever lost.

Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, Sloth.
5 outta 7 ain't bad. Working on the other 2.

by tanstaafl on Jan 23, 2011 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

We know our problems

On D: Alan Ball with Jenkins as an accessory. That is where most of our big plays came from against us. Replace Ball with someone competent and push Jenkins and that number would probably drop back to about where it was in 2009.

by burmafrd1944 on Jan 23, 2011 10:41 AM CST reply actions  

a reassuring comment

by either rob ryan or his father:

“You don’t blitz the quarterback you blitz the scheme”.

I already feel better about our defense!!!

by oneforthethumb on Jan 23, 2011 11:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Sounds like Buddy

Could be Rob. Either way, with you on the confidence bit hearing that, if only because it seems Rob picked up a thing or two from the old man.

Pride, Avarice, Lust, Envy, Gluttony, Wrath, Sloth.
5 outta 7 ain't bad. Working on the other 2.

by tanstaafl on Jan 23, 2011 12:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Well aren't the big game passing and wr numbers

attributed to losing, playing behind, having to catch up? Going against soft D’s in prevent mode helps to.

Like Tan said, of those list there are barely anyone playing today or even last week. Yes its a passing league but its a league still relies on balance on both sides of the ball. Ill take an average Offense AND Defense vs a great Offense/Defense and a poor Defense/Offense

by thebigham on Jan 23, 2011 11:04 AM CST reply actions  

Here’s the top QB list from last year, with 300+ games and team record in brackets:

Peyton Manning: 9 (14-2)
Matt Schaub: 9 (9-7)
Tony Romo: 8 (11-5)
Drew Brees: 7 (13-3)
Tom Brady: 7 (10-6)
Brett Favre: 6 (12-4)

I don’t believe many QBs on this list played a lot of catching up. But the NFL is fickle from one year to the next, and what worked last year may not work this year.

by One.Cool.Customer on Jan 23, 2011 11:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Don't mean to be a pain, but then why is this "the key for future success"?

The analysis seems to say it doesn’t really relate to W/L?

Common sense says it would, and we all saw how the Dallas D gave up too many yards.
But you actually seem to be making the opposite point about last year, that it didn’t relate to W/L.
And another point, that it changes year-year anyways.

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009

by Realist Larry on Jan 23, 2011 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

in 2009 the Cowboys allowed 5 ‘big games’, in 2010 they allowed 19. Doesn’t take a huge leap of faith to think that if they bring that number down, they’ll have more success.

by One.Cool.Customer on Jan 23, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions  

that makes complete sense-thanks

loking back I see that stat now…I was focused more the 1st time through on your comments how big performances often didn’t equal Wins.

You’re right in a commen sense way, of course…but the actual stats don’t match what our common sense says.

For example, on your final chart, Oak, Cinc, SF, Houston do well.
While Baltimore, TB, and Chicago are down the list.

Interesting that the area with the highest correlation is the 100 yards rushing..raises the usual cause / effect argument there.

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, isn't it both? Realist Larry, 2009

by Realist Larry on Jan 23, 2011 3:24 PM CST up reply actions  

i’m perplexed by the inclusion of W/L record with volume stats. the flaws of volume stats are well known.

notice anything about this list?

Chris Johnson Titans 8
Michael Turner Falcons 7
Darren McFadden Raiders 6
Maurice Jones-Drew Jaguars 6
Adrian Peterson Vikings 5
Peyton Hillis Browns 5

mmm … exactly one made the playoffs and zero are still playing.

Ill take an average Offense AND Defense vs a great Offense/Defense and a poor Defense/Offense

I’ll take an efficient pass O and efficient pass D

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Jan 23, 2011 11:49 AM CST reply actions  

haha, Ill leave it to OCC and you to battle.

I am all about the eyeball test you know. “Stats are for losers”

Only 4 QBs on his list made the playoffs out of the 10 and only one is still playing and only 4 wr of his 7 made the playoffs but 2 are playing.

What does it mean? Nothing. Its like the myth of what 270 carries or something. You just a point that works best with what you are trying to prove?

Im not arguing or agreeing just saying stats are very very misleading. Eyeball test tells me the Cowboys need to get a better Defense to balance its good offense. Its all about Balance

by thebigham on Jan 23, 2011 12:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Things like this
Especially the Giants’ wide receivers

Make me feel good as a Giants fan.

But seriously, it also makes me feel sad seeing how the Giants did so many good things yet ruined it all with turnovers and a lot of other bad things.

All you hear about is the past, the past... the past is the !@#$ing past, this is the present.
THIS IS TEMPORARY! A CHAMPIONSHIP IS PERMANENT
-Michael Strahan

by Willgfass on Jan 23, 2011 1:00 PM CST reply actions  

the Giants O for sure ahs the Dallas D number.

Lets go Rob Ryan! (Do we have a nickname for him yet?)

by thebigham on Jan 23, 2011 1:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Well...

if he gets our defense off to a good start, we could call him Bounty Jr. the quicker picker-uper.LOL

Rabid and luvin' it

by lonewolfz28 on Jan 23, 2011 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Same here.

And if he is that good, how long before he leaves to be a HC somewhere else?

Rabid and luvin' it

by lonewolfz28 on Jan 23, 2011 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

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