Propped Up: Revisiting Cowboys Prop Bet Milestones At The Quarter Mark
by KD Drummond on Oct 11, 2011 10:00 PM CDT
in Trolling the Universe
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Before the season began, I ran a post looking at the Over/Unders for various season totals for the Cowboys, courtesy of Bodog.com's NFL Prop Bets. These are wagers where you bet on the team, or player in this instance, that will surpass or fall short of the expectations placed on them. Being that we are at the quarter mark for the season, I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to check in on how the Cowboys players have lived up to the prognostications.
I'll rely on a super-secret-squirrel scientific formula I've stolen from O.C.C.'s Algorithm Notebook in order to project totals for the seasons. I'll multiply the current totals by four. Brilliant!
Tony Romo - Total Passing Yards in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 4,000
In reality, this question is, do you think Tony Romo plays at least 15 games? If yes, then the over is the norm, if not, then it's extremely hard (but not impossible) to accomplish. Unfortunately, I think it's too much of a risk to think we won't see Kitna this season. I'd stay away from the bet, but if pressed to make a choice, Under wins.
Romo's only missed a single quarter of a game at the quarter pole, amassing 1,273 yards. If he plays all 16, his projected 5,100 yards would shatter the team record. So far I was wrong, but I did warn to stay away from the bet.
Tony Romo - Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 25 ½
In his three seasons with more than 10 starts, Romo has had at least 26 touchdowns. Take the Over.
Seven TDs through four contests, projected 28 on the year. That would be Romo's second highest total of his career.
More...
Felix Jones - Total Rushing Yards in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 800
Over. Way Over. Felix has 800 yards by Week 11. This is the year, it's got to be the year. Felix, baby. Bet the house.
Now rushing at a 4.3 ypc clip, Felix's 243 yards projects to him getting extremely close to his first 1,000 yard season.
Tony Romo - Total Interceptions thrown in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 14 ½
Romo throws picks, it's just how things have been. Is this the year things change? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stay away, but if pressed I'd let the fan in me take the Under.
On pace for 20 picks, Romo (5) has to cut this total for the team to go anywhere.
Felix Jones - Total Rushing Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 4 ½
A bit trickier than the yardage total. Based on my FF projections I'm taking the over, but in reality this is a stay away because of all of the weapons Dallas has, I can't trust RB scores with my money.
With just one TD in four games, Jones needs to up the pace a bit. Again, a stay away suggestion for an incorrect prediction.
Dez Bryant - Total Receiving Yards in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 800
Again, I have to stick with my predictions that Dez is a 1000 yard receiver, although I am a bit worried about him making it the entire 16 games. There will be a couple games of frustration, and a couple ohemgee games, that will put Dez right around the 900-1100 yard threshold.
And, a thigh bruise suffered early in Week One makes this one a no go to this point. Currently on pace about 700 yds.
Dez Bryant - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 7
I have a feeling that Dez is drawing a lot of red zone attention this season, so I'm shaky on this. Stay away, but if pressed I'll give him 6 TDs and take the under.
Wrong again (loving my stay away out clause right now), Dez is on pace for 12 TDs despite the gimpy leg.
Miles Austin - Total Receiving Yards in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 1000
Over. Book it.
233 yards in two games played. I told you to book it.
Miles Austin - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 7 ½
Did I say book it? BOOK IT.
4 TDs in two games played. Yeah buddy.
Jason Witten - Total Receiving Yards in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 950
Way overvalued here. I can't see him getting the targets of the last two years. I'm thinking more along the line of 800 yards.
I failed to project both wideouts being injured at the same time, so obviously Witten gets those targets. 366 yards in four games projects out to over 1400 yards and shatter his career high (1145). Expect this pace to slow, but he only has to average 50 yards a game to surpass this total.
Jason Witten - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 7 ½
Overvalued again. Witten has only had over 7 TDs once, last year, when he was Kitna's security blanket. Take the under and take the money.
1 TD on the season to this point. Right now this one is looking good.
Jason Witten - Total Receptions in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 95
I see Jason Witten is the easy money bet of the year for the team. No way he approaches that total with two receiving threats out of the backfield and two elite level receivers.
27 receptions puts him on a 108 clip. Will healthy wideouts reduce this pace by a little more than one catch a game? Interesting one here.
DeMarcus Ware - Total Sacks in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 15 ½
Hmmm... do I think that Rob Ryan placing Ware all over the field help his total, or the totals of the rest of the team? I don't think Ware can be stopped and notches 17-18 sacks this season, including 2 of Mark Sanchez on opening night.
With five sacks already, Ware is on his way to his second season of 20 sacks.
Anthony Spencer - Total Sacks in the 2011 Regular Season
Over/Under 4 ½
How depressing is that projection? Probably not as much as me taking the under. In reality I'd stay away, but BW's astute observation that he is being used as a run anchor at both OLB and DE lead me to believe the under is more likely than the over.
Surprise! Three sacks in four games put Spencer on a pace to give double digit sacks opposite DeMarcus for the first time since Greg Eliis' 12.5 in 2007.
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Other than Tony's interceptions
All of these stats look pretty good at the quarter mark projected over the whole season. I hope the good stuff can be maintained
Even 14 is a little high
He has to cut down on those.
Hey Washington... D.C. stands for Dallas Cowboys
Twitter: @silva918
I'll take 14
If he throws 35 TDs.
by The Loco Llama on Oct 12, 2011 8:13 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
For his career Romo's thrown about 1 pick per game every season except 2009.
Considering there are 12 games left to go, you’d expect him to throw 11 (which is also what you’d expect for a league average interception rate). Add in the fact that he already has 5 and that’s 16 picks.
14 picks or lower would be a considerable improvement over his career and league average rates.
oops
I think at the beginning of the season I thought we would break all those marks, now with injuries, not so much.
BOOM!
by yevil knievil on Oct 11, 2011 11:04 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
KD at times I realy wish I could bet on games.
My job blocks me from betting at all om football.
You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four. Dan Birdwell. Oakland Raiders
How do you want to be rememberd. Go out there and play every play like it is your last play. Be remembered as the person you want to be for the rest of your life. Spike Dykes, Midland Lee and Texas Tech Coach.
Sorry for misspellins, Still tryin to et an HP notepad and windows workin. Should just dump it
You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four. Dan Birdwell. Oakland Raiders
How do you want to be rememberd. Go out there and play every play like it is your last play. Be remembered as the person you want to be for the rest of your life. Spike Dykes, Midland Lee and Texas Tech Coach.
finally got down to downloading this from Blood Sweat Chalk.
If the F Post defined the early years of the Coryell offense, it was a route called the Bang 8 that defined these Cowboys (the Bang 8 so named because it was a Coryell "8" route thrown very quickly—bang—and later generically called the "skinny post" throughout football because it was a post pattern but not run as deeply as a traditional post, thus run at a more severe—skinny—angle).
thought you might find it interesting.
You know what Kenny Powers says? Fundamentals are the crutch of the talentless.
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Oct 12, 2011 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
That is one of the must have books on X's and O's
It is one of the must have books for your football. library
You have to play this game like somebody just hit your mother with a two-by-four. Dan Birdwell. Oakland Raiders
How do you want to be rememberd. Go out there and play every play like it is your last play. Be remembered as the person you want to be for the rest of your life. Spike Dykes, Midland Lee and Texas Tech Coach.
i was thinking ware would get around 15 too...
but i hope i’m wrong. hope it’s more….
"They need security in the world, Craig!"
I hope he breaks the record
that Favre flop for Strahan needs to be for naught.
by NerdVernacular on Oct 12, 2011 8:50 AM CDT up reply actions
One stat matters and that's the w.
This team has a lot of individuals who routinely put up eyepopping stats. Yet they continue to flounder. Al Davis had it right all along . Just win.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
this teams offense has done its part
its the defense that has failed it year in and year out, Lack of talent and injuries killed this team.
by Musiccitynorm on Oct 12, 2011 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions
You're nuts KD...Romo is a an absolute lock to go over 4,000 yards this year
He’ll do it by Thanksgiving…bank on it.
In Romo we Trust
He'll have over 4000 yards
But I fear I’m going to have to take the over on interceptions.
Greetings from the Humungus, the Ruler of the Wasteland, the Ayatollah of Rock and Roll-A. I laugh at your puny plans.
by Lord Humungus on Oct 12, 2011 7:56 AM CDT up reply actions
He'll have at least a 2:1 TD/INT ratio
So if he does throw over 14 picks, he’s throwing at least 28 TDs, probably more
In Romo we Trust
INT return yards dont count
when the defense take his INTs to the house
i dont see much positive of him stacking up massive passing yards unless he’s on a Marino pace. There needs to be more balance on the offensive side of the ball
The realist keepin it real amongst the surrealists
R.I.P. Big Homey Nate Dogg: "Cuz Iiiiiiiiii have ne-evv-ver met a giiiiiiiiiirrrrrrllllllllllllllllllll tha-at I loved in the whole wide wooorrrlllllddddddd"
by starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 on Oct 12, 2011 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions
we have no running ame
If Romo isn’t racking up yardage, we’re not moving the ball…it’s that simple
In Romo we Trust
Felix's 4.5 TD's is depressing
Even more so because I take the under. Jeez we need a goal line running game.
Greetings from the Humungus, the Ruler of the Wasteland, the Ayatollah of Rock and Roll-A. I laugh at your puny plans.
All four teams we've played are good rushing defenses.
Felix and the running game will pick up as our opponents get easier, starting this week.
Forte had over 100 yards vs the Lions. We just have tinkertoy rb's.
They won’t draft a real bellcow. That’s on Garrett.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Oct 12, 2011 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions
You mean the guy who is averaging 6.0 yards per carry outside of the Green Bay Game?
Who averaged 5.3 yards per carry against the Lions?
The Patriots have a bad run defense (and a bad passing defense). We’ll be able to run on them.
10-6 Over/Under
My gut says push.
But if we can beat the pats @ their house.
I’m going all in at 11-5 / 12-4
by The Loco Llama on Oct 12, 2011 8:17 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
14-2. You have no faith Ham.
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
by TARHEEL PAUL on Oct 12, 2011 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Even if we lose to the pats
we can still do 11-5
Hey Washington... D.C. stands for Dallas Cowboys
Twitter: @silva918
Sure could. I'd give us about a 1 in 3 shot of getting to 11+ wins if we lose to the Pats.
If we beat the Pats I’d give us at least a 50/50 shot of hitting 11 or more.
10-6 is our most likely result, and most everyone here is optimistic and will take the over.
Set the line at 10.5 wins and then you’ll force people to make a choice.
Cowboys are wearing blue on Sunday
Per ESPNDallas.com
"A superhero in the flesh, even at my worst I'm the best."
by MicThaRock on Oct 12, 2011 10:55 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
oh no we're doomed!
TCU is going to the Big 12, about time.................................Lock n Load
Crud
Not only does that Uni Suck, but it’s cursed. WHY JERRY WHY
"Native, I think. And one of the most loyal and knowledgable Cowboys fans on the planet. We also suspect he is a cyborg with a supercomputer brain, and treat him with great respect since we anticipate he will become our supreme overlord someday. Other than that, he’s a really nice guy."
The name has been left off to protect the innocent. Unfortunately the search function still exists.
Not up to Jerry
It all depends on what jersey the home team wears. If they choose to wear white then we by rule have to wear the blues.
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
by TARHEEL PAUL on Oct 12, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Those silly Patriots
taking whatever advantage they can get to win. Who knew they were so scared of us?
"Native, I think. And one of the most loyal and knowledgable Cowboys fans on the planet. We also suspect he is a cyborg with a supercomputer brain, and treat him with great respect since we anticipate he will become our supreme overlord someday. Other than that, he’s a really nice guy."
The name has been left off to protect the innocent. Unfortunately the search function still exists.
The Eagles actually did it in the 1980 NFC championship game because of the curse.
True story. THere normal home jerseys were green. They chose to wear the whites so it would force dallas to where those blues. All because of the curse.
But i’ve seen dallas win a few big games wearing the blues.
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
by TARHEEL PAUL on Oct 12, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
thats a good thing............hear me out
The curse of the blue jersey was at its worst last year. They cursed our whole season because we didn’t wear them at all.
Thinking positive here.
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
by TARHEEL PAUL on Oct 12, 2011 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
i feel to help erode the curse
they should elect to wear it at home once or twice a season. its like they recognize the curse as legit and then other home teams will force them to wear them on the road
Like maybe they should wear blue at home against st louis, seattle, or buffalo and get it out their heads the jersey is cursed because i guarantee that Washington, Arizona, or Tampa Bay will force them to wear it on the road again
what would be crazy is if the giants and cowboys were fighting for a playoff spot in week 17 and the giants decided to wear white at home against dallas
The realist keepin it real amongst the surrealists
R.I.P. Big Homey Nate Dogg: "Cuz Iiiiiiiiii have ne-evv-ver met a giiiiiiiiiirrrrrrllllllllllllllllllll tha-at I loved in the whole wide wooorrrlllllddddddd"
by starbury_to_s-jaxci2000 on Oct 12, 2011 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
The Blues look better. At least the pants match the helmets.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Oct 12, 2011 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Fox is hyping this matchup like it's a playoff game.
It’s as close to a national TV game as it gets. I bet it is Fox’s highest rated game of the regular season.
TCU is going to the Big 12, about time.................................Lock n Load
Every team that plays the Cowboys
It is hyped as a playoff game. The Jets game, maybe not the 49ers, the lions game, now this game.
We're here to win football games. The way to do that is to tell him and to get on him at the right times. I do that when you guys (media) don't see and watch.''
What else makes a strong leader?
"You win,'' Romo said. "You're a very good leader once you win.
"That's' what we're going to do.''
by TARHEEL PAUL on Oct 12, 2011 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
The Jets game got a lot of hype
for a lot of reasons:
- first NBC Sunday night game
- 9/11 anniversary in the shadow of Ground Zero
- Ryan brothers on opposite sidelines
- it’s the Cowboys
Niners – nah. Fox did regional TV that Sunday, and it was one of only a handful of late games. Most of the country saw a regional telecast of an early game.
Skins – Cowboys/Skins; MNF; ’nuff said
Lions – a little more hype. It was again a Fox regional Sunday, and it was one of several early games. However, it did get the lead crew and a little more attention than the other games.
Patriots – Super Bowl Preview hype
- two high-profile glamour teams
- only play each other every four years
- near-national exposure (Fox doubleheader game; probably the only region to not get this game is the Gulf coast – from south Louisiana to Florida should get Saints-Bucs)
- RRyan / Belicheat connection
- Garrett / Welker connection
Cowboys and Longhorns - getting up off the turf to win another day.
Spurs? It's football season!
its basically a playoff game for us
Bruce Carter+Sean Lee=BRUCE LEE!!!!
Follow me at my blog
http://chiacrackscowboysblog.wordpress.com/
by Archie Barberio on Oct 12, 2011 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Why would the Pats wear their white jerseys at home??
I think thats a first for them
In Romo we Trust
I was wonderin the same thing
but the last time we played there, they wore their silver alternate and we wore the blues, so maybe thats what their doing, idk
Bruce Carter+Sean Lee=BRUCE LEE!!!!
Follow me at my blog
http://chiacrackscowboysblog.wordpress.com/
by Archie Barberio on Oct 12, 2011 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I bet the current Cowboy players have no clue about the blue jersey thing.
TCU is going to the Big 12, about time.................................Lock n Load
No one does other than old timers that actually think superstition is scientific
The color of the jersey has never decided the outcome of a game.
"Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk"
by sprewelllatrell on Oct 12, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
good call droid the pats
did wear the silver’s (u had to look closely) & later wore the silvers against miami later in the yr also… i’m thinking if dallas has a good offense that yr they win that game cause wasn’t the score like 12-0 or something?
by DarkKnight88 on Oct 13, 2011 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions
is it me?
or do we under utilize Witten in the redzone? I see other teams, Falcons, Packers, Patriots etc use their TE’s down there and they get TD’s, heck Gronk has like 6 already
idk but if I had arguably the best TE in the game, I would be using him more in the redzone, Witten’s TD’s are always low because of that
Bruce Carter+Sean Lee=BRUCE LEE!!!!
Follow me at my blog
http://chiacrackscowboysblog.wordpress.com/
by Archie Barberio on Oct 12, 2011 12:41 PM CDT reply actions
I trust him more than anyone down there.
Although, Dez is becoming awesome in the redzone. Too bad none of our running backs is the first choice.
Do you see the respect Witten gets in the Redzone.. its just too easy to go else where.
But yes I wish we would go to him more some how. Ilike what they did where he blocks then goes out in a delay pattern
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player and 2012's Superbowl MVP
Novacek scored so easily because we had a real rb.
Jerry is the end all in Dallas.
by football mensa on Oct 12, 2011 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Would people stop acting like the uniforms decide the outcome of games
I personally really like the blue jerseys. Part of it is because they wear white 95% of the time, which to me is so blah and ordinary. This bad luck talk is B.S. The team didn’t blow 14 and 24 point leads this season in Blue, maybe people should worry when they wear white!
"Don't fake the funk on a nasty dunk"
by sprewelllatrell on Oct 12, 2011 2:10 PM CDT reply actions
yeah i like their blue jerseys.....
one with the star on the sleeves, not the throw back ones.
woman !, don't try to understand em, don't try to make them understand you, for they are a breed apart ! lol
(redskins)= A Tale of 2 owners, bought by Snyder, OWNED by the COWBOYS
Id say RIP Al Davis, but i know your up there drunker than a monkey and clocking angels in the 40 yd dash.
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