Propped Up: Revisiting Cowboys Prop Bet Milestones At The Quarter Mark

She's cheering for the overs, except for the interceptions...

Before the season began, I ran a post looking at the Over/Unders for various season totals for the Cowboys, courtesy of Bodog.com's NFL Prop Bets. These are wagers where you bet on the team, or player in this instance, that will surpass or fall short of the expectations placed on them. Being that we are at the quarter mark for the season, I figured this would be the perfect opportunity to check in on how the Cowboys players have lived up to the prognostications.

I'll rely on a super-secret-squirrel scientific formula I've stolen from O.C.C.'s Algorithm Notebook in order to project totals for the seasons. I'll multiply the current totals by four. Brilliant!

Tony Romo - Total Passing Yards in the 2011 Regular Season           

Over/Under                    4,000

In reality, this question is, do you think Tony Romo plays at least 15 games? If yes, then the over is the norm, if not, then it's extremely hard (but not impossible) to accomplish. Unfortunately, I think it's too much of a risk to think we won't see Kitna this season. I'd stay away from the bet, but if pressed to make a choice, Under wins.

Romo's only missed a single quarter of a game at the quarter pole, amassing 1,273 yards. If he plays all 16, his projected 5,100 yards would shatter the team record. So far I was wrong, but I did warn to stay away from the bet.

Tony Romo - Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    25 ½

In his three seasons with more than 10 starts, Romo has had at least 26 touchdowns. Take the Over.

Seven TDs through four contests, projected 28 on the year. That would be Romo's second highest total of his career.

More...

Felix Jones - Total Rushing Yards in the 2011 Regular Season         

Over/Under                    800

Over. Way Over. Felix has 800 yards by Week 11. This is the year, it's got to be the year. Felix, baby. Bet the house.

Now rushing at a 4.3 ypc clip, Felix's 243 yards projects to him getting extremely close to his first 1,000 yard season.

Tony Romo - Total Interceptions thrown in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    14 ½

Romo throws picks, it's just how things have been. Is this the year things change? Possibly, but I wouldn't bet on it. Stay away, but if pressed I'd let the fan in me take the Under. 

On pace for 20 picks, Romo (5) has to cut this total for the team to go anywhere.

Felix Jones - Total Rushing Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season          

Over/Under                    4 ½

A bit trickier than the yardage total. Based on my FF projections I'm taking the over, but in reality this is a stay away because of all of the weapons Dallas has, I can't trust RB scores with my money.

With just one TD in four games, Jones needs to up the pace a bit. Again, a stay away suggestion for an incorrect prediction.

Dez Bryant - Total Receiving Yards in the 2011 Regular Season       

Over/Under                    800

Again, I have to stick with my predictions that Dez is a 1000 yard receiver, although I am a bit worried about him making it the entire 16 games. There will be a couple games of frustration, and a couple ohemgee games, that will put Dez right around the 900-1100 yard threshold.

And, a thigh bruise suffered early in Week One makes this one a no go to this point. Currently on pace about 700 yds.

Dez Bryant - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season        

Over/Under                    7

I have a feeling that Dez is drawing a lot of red zone attention this season, so I'm shaky on this. Stay away, but if pressed I'll give him 6 TDs and take the under.

Wrong again (loving my stay away out clause right now), Dez is on pace for 12 TDs despite the gimpy leg.

Miles Austin - Total Receiving Yards in the 2011 Regular Season     

Over/Under                    1000

Over. Book it. 

233 yards in two games played. I told you to book it.

Miles Austin - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season      

Over/Under                    7 ½

Did I say book it? BOOK IT.

4 TDs in two games played. Yeah buddy.

Jason Witten - Total Receiving Yards in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    950

Way overvalued here. I can't see him getting the targets of the last two years. I'm thinking more along the line of 800 yards.

I failed to project both wideouts being injured at the same time, so obviously Witten gets those targets. 366 yards in four games projects out to over 1400 yards and shatter his career high (1145). Expect this pace to slow, but he only has to average 50 yards a game to surpass this total.

Jason Witten - Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2011 Regular Season     

Over/Under                    7 ½

Overvalued again. Witten has only had over 7 TDs once, last year, when he was Kitna's security blanket. Take the under and take the money.

1 TD on the season to this point. Right now this one is looking good.

Jason Witten - Total Receptions in the 2011 Regular Season

Over/Under                    95

I see Jason Witten is the easy money bet of the year for the team. No way he approaches that total with two receiving threats out of the backfield and two elite level receivers.

27 receptions puts him on a 108 clip. Will healthy wideouts reduce this pace by a little more than one catch a game? Interesting one here.

DeMarcus Ware - Total Sacks in the 2011 Regular Season    

Over/Under                    15 ½

Hmmm... do I think that Rob Ryan placing Ware all over the field help his total, or the totals of the rest of the team? I don't think Ware can be stopped and notches 17-18 sacks this season, including 2 of Mark Sanchez on opening night.

With five sacks already, Ware is on his way to his second season of 20 sacks.

Anthony Spencer - Total Sacks in the 2011 Regular Season 

Over/Under                    4 ½

How depressing is that projection? Probably not as much as me taking the under. In reality I'd stay away, but BW's astute observation that he is being used as a run anchor at both OLB and DE lead me to believe the under is more likely than the over.

Surprise! Three sacks in four games put Spencer on a pace to give double digit sacks opposite DeMarcus for the first time since Greg Eliis' 12.5 in 2007.

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