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Around SBN: Drug Testing, Alistair Overeem & UFC 146's Potential Legacy

WMQB: See you in your nightmares.

Fear me like you fear Gxx, cause I bring death

-Tony Romo

Star-divide

Ok, I lied. Actually 50 Cent said that, but I like think that as Jim Haslett prepares Washington to play Dallas this week, that’s how he’s feeling. I like to think that teams fear Dallas’s passing game again. #29 has looked great, can’t wait to see how he looks when the D is worried about 50-yd bombs. I have to think this game is going to loosen up defenses.

Was Buffalo a good matchup for Dallas? Yes. A bad pass defense that can't rush the passer. So I’m sure that Buffalo made Dallas look good. But this offense has ridiculous potential.

Here’s one of my favorite comments about the Dallas offense.

KC:  Here's something to mention about the Cowboys.  It's not a metric thing but something for the fans to keep in mind.  When healthy, they have Dez Bryant, they have Jason Witten and Austin.  When healthy, all three of those guys are matchup busters.  That means that you can put any level of competition against them and they can be productive.  Austin has been especially good at this the last couple of years.  Doesn't matter what type of cornerback you put on him.  Good cornerback, bad cornerback, you double him. Doesn't matter.  He's still going to be productive.

That's a rare trait, and the Cowboys have lots of guys who can do that.

I suspect Murray is a matchup buster too. LB’s can’t cover Murray out of the backfield. It’s enough to make me giddy.

The offense is starting to click. Dez running around like a hyperactive kid … looking like he wants to break every catch for a TD. The OL developing cohesion. Murray getting integrated into the passing game. #81 providing a big play threat. And Austin isn’t even playing. See you in your nightmares.

BTW, my favorite comment … Dez on his TD catch

"I got my head up a little late," Bryant said. "I saw the ball and I had to attack it"

That pretty much sums up the whole offense: on the attack. 

Net Pass YPA

The table below summarizes Dallas’s net pass YPA for the period from 2007-2010.

Offensive net pass YPAOffensive net pass YPA RankDefensive net pass YPADefensive net pass YPA Rank
2007 7.4 2nd 5.4 6th
2008 6.6 11th 5.3 5th
2009 7.3 6th 5.9 11th
2010 6.7 7th 6.8 28th

As a basis for comparison, summarized in the table below are the maximum, median, average, and minimum net pass YPA for the NFL 2010 season

Net Pass YPA – NFL All Teams 2010 Season  
  Offense Defense
Maximum 7.8 7.5
Median 6.1 6.1
Average 6.2 6.2
Minimum 4.3 5.3

The Cowboys results through week 10 are summarized in the table below.

Dallas Cowboys    
Week Offensive net pass YPA Offensive net pass YPA Rank Defensive net pass YPA Defensive net pass YPA Rank
NYJ 8.2   6.2  
SF 9.7   4.4  
WAS 6.8   5.8  
DET 6.7   5.6  
BYE        
NEP 7   6.1  
STL 5.8   5.7  
PHI 4.7   8  
SEA 9   7.1  
BUF 10.4   4.3  
Season 7.5 5th 6 12th

The Darkos results through week 10 are summarized in the table below.

Darko Cowboys    
Week Offensive net pass YPA Offensive net pass YPA Rank Defensive net pass YPA Defensive net pass YPA Rank
IND 8.7   5.1  
MIA 6.5   4.8  
NO 8.9   7.7  
PIT 6.6   5.1  
OAK 7.5   5.6  
BAL 4.9   8.3  
TEN 12.9   2.9  
JAX 6.3   2.7  
CLE 5.2   4.9  
TB 14.3   3.6  
Season 7.7 3rd 5.1 3rd

The offense produced a spectacular net pass YPA of 10.4 y/a, best of the season. And that doesn’t really reflect how dominant the offense was as they put the game into cruise control in the 4th quarter.

The defense produced a pretty good game themselves, holding a good Buffalo offense to a net pass YPA of 4.3 y/a. Again, that doesn’t completely capture how well the defense played as they also produced 3 interceptions. The only worrying trend is the sacks: 4,6,3,0,3,1,4,1,1. Worth keeping an eye on. 

Realist Larry asked me if I was going to talk about the Darkos. I wasn’t planning to until the end of the season when we could reflect on it but I’ll comment on it briefly this week. What a weird season. There were a few scenarios I thought were possible. Maybe Wade was the problem, Dallas would be good and the Darkos would be bad. Maybe the players were the problem, and Dallas would be bad and the Darkos would be good. What I didn’t expect is that the Darkos would be lights out and Dallas would be lights out.

I know, I know. A bunch of people are going to say they said Rob Ryan would make a huge difference, and yes a lot of people claimed that. But they also claimed that Spencer was going to be rejuvenated, that Spears would turn into a pass rusher, Jenkins would return to is 2009 form, etc, etc. You get the idea. None of that has happened and Ryan is still producing with Alan Ball playing like he wants to hurt someone and Frank Walker getting major PT (I do like the diesel version of #32).

I suppose there were some indications, Rex Ryan doesn’t have a great pass rush but he manages to be effective in New York. It’s just so strange that Rob Ryan had such mediocre results in his previous stops. Its not like he couldn’t get Alan Ball/Frank Walker caliber players in Cleveland. He obviously never had a talent like Ware but still, #94 is only one player. I’m scratching my head. Are you?

Game Notes

-DL looks pretty lame

-almost int off the hands of #29

-#50 doesn’t look as effective

-1st down passes. Yippee. 34-yd TD to Dez, 58-yd TD to #81. Game over. 

-Frank Walker is solid

-#41: nice job fighting through a block and making a tough tackle

-Storylines coming into the week: Romo’s on lockdown, Dallas is bad in the red zone. Maybe not so much.

#67: Because a lot of people have been critical of #67 I flipped through the game and focused on #67. He did a nice job against Dareus. I like #67. He’s had some trouble anchoring but he’s really good in space and likes to hit people. Plus he’s strong.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJKuIMOB6i8

Remember, Reggie White dropped the hump move on Larry Allen during LAs rookie year. Literally knocked LA out of the way. Very steep learning curve for OL in the NFL.

Article of the Week: Looking a Run/Pass Balance

I posted this a couple times before but it didn't seem to get much attention. It's one of the best articles I've seen this season so do yourself a favor and read it. It looks at Run/Pass balance taking into account game situation.

 

In all of these cases, the statistics did not tell the true story. Those teams passed so successfully that they frequently found themselves in run-favorable situations. Every N.F.L. fan knows that trailing teams tend to pass more frequently than winning teams, and the disparity is stronger the larger the lead or deficit. For example, teams this season are passing on 74 percent of plays when trailing by 17 to 24 points, but that  drops to 44 percent when leading by such a margin. How a game unfolds has a large impact on the ultimate run/pass ratio of a team. To truly understand a team’s offensive philosophy, you need to take into account the scoring flow of the game….

Lo and behold, the Packers now look to be the most pass-happy team in the league. The Steelers and the Patriots are also in the top four, and the Saints are not far behind. Not surprisingly, the Jaguars and Chiefs lead the way when it comes to run-heavy offenses, regardless of situation. The Jets have actually been relatively run-heavy this season, but their game situation (trailing often) has somewhat distorted the numbers.

Perhaps the most interesting team? The Ravens … The Ravens have been extremely pass-heavy this season,

 

 

Week 11

O net pass YPA RankD net pass YPA Rank
DAL 2011 5th 12th
WAS 2011 24th 18th

Looks like a favorable matchup against WAS. They can't pass the ball and they can't defend the pass. Go Dallas.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.

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Great write-up FiTaT

As always. One thing that I think would’ve been good to include is Romo’s interception count. How many has he had in the last 4 games? He’s due for a 1 or 2 Int Game some time soon, maybe 2 in a row. Since the Rams game Romo has thrown 116 pass attempts, and has only been intercepted once at a rate of .8%.

That’s just not going to happen, especially since Romo throws a career, 2.9 I think. I expect 1 or 2 interceptions between now and next Thursday and of course expect the familiar: Tony Romo is regressing to old Tony argument, when in reality he’s simply regressing to the mean.

Hey now, Romo got to learn under Quincy Carter, Testaverde and Bledsoe. Which is like a human child being raised by a wolf. -DavidH22
If Romulus can do it, so can Romo. ....WAIT A MINUTE - NYHORN

I'm not saying Tony Romo is the reincarnation of the mythical Romulus. I'm just saying

by NYHorn on Nov 16, 2011 11:28 PM CST reply actions  

Idk Horn

This just maybe a Romo we might start seeing. Think about it. He is a smarter QB than he was in 07 he takes care of the ball better than that. And the last time he had a serviceable running game in 09 he only threw 9 INTs.

He’s playing with more trust than ever with Murray running like that and seems to be in sync with JG like in 07. The running game has really helped Romo, he doesn’t have to be a hero each week and his numbers are showing it with 7 TDs to 0 INTs when Murray carries the ball 20 + times

by CowboyWay on Nov 17, 2011 12:32 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Let's say you're right on all of this.

That still would mean that Romo has moved from 2.9% (about average) to, say, 1 or 1.5% (super-good to elite). It wouldn’t mean that nobody intercepts Romo ever again. Yes, I hope we never see a 4-Int-game again; it would be even nicer if we never saw a 3-Int game again. But we are going to see interceptions, and we probably should steel ourselves not to over-react.

by boyman on Nov 17, 2011 8:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Oh for sure he will throw a pic

I don’t think we will see too many of those bone head forced interceptions because there isn’t an umense amount of pressure for him to do so any more with there being a threat in the backfield.

I could be wrong but I think the interceptions you’ll see will be of the Marty B variety and great plays on the ball by the defense. Let’s be clear the Detroit game was due to JG having no trust in the run game. Hence pressure on Romo to be a hero and boom 3 INTs. Jets game there was so much going on that night but he made a bad read and it cost him. Outside of those he has 3 INTs. One which. Bounced off Marty B the other was a cut off route by Tree on a punt type play. The sole interception on Romos hands outside of the collapses when there was no running game was against the patriots on the first drive

Point is he’s been fairly good with taking care of the ball and actually been exceptional when he’s had help.

by CowboyWay on Nov 17, 2011 8:44 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Let's be honest if someone had a 1.5% int rate

That would be ungodly not elite.

To put this in perspective:
Tom Brady 2.2%
Peyton Manning 2.7%
Joe Montana 2.5%

I still think Romo’s going to have a 2.9-2.7 for his career. But I get your point

Hey now, Romo got to learn under Quincy Carter, Testaverde and Bledsoe. Which is like a human child being raised by a wolf. -DavidH22
If Romulus can do it, so can Romo. ....WAIT A MINUTE - NYHORN

I'm not saying Tony Romo is the reincarnation of the mythical Romulus. I'm just saying

by NYHorn on Nov 17, 2011 9:09 AM CST up reply actions  

Yea I think the early part of his career will hurt his career rate #s

But if this is any indication of a more sustainable Romo his numbers will be better looking as his career progresses. But all it will take is one bone headed pick and we are back at square one lol… Gotta love Romo, that’s my quarterback

by CowboyWay on Nov 17, 2011 9:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I didn’t include the interceptions bc I just mentioned the interceptions last week. I agree that interceptions would not be a sign of fundamental change. However, Romo isn’t necessarily ‘due’. I’m sure you already know this, but so it’s clear for everyone, the best guess going forward is mean reversion to his historical performance. Example: Romo for his career has a 2.9% int rate. If Romo had started a season with a 0% int rate for the first 8 games, our best guess for that last 8 games would still be 2.9% (would avg to ~1.5% for the season), not 5.8% (which would avg to 2.9% for the season). Make sense?

In terms of his historical performance I look at his historical average and SD.

Here’s how I look at it. Back of the envelope

Romo’s career int. rate per 2.9%. For each season the SD is about 0.8%. So 68% of seasons fall between 2.1% and 3.7%. That means 32% would be outside that (although realistically Romo would get pulled if his int rate went above 3.7% for any period of time). So something like 16% of the time I’d expect him to be below 2.1%.

Over an 8 game stretch, I’d expect that to be even higher, smaller sample size. So I’m guessing something like 20% odds, or 1 in 5, that he’s between say 1% -2% int. rate for the remainder of the season. So a 1%-2% rate for the remainder of the season isn’t wildly improbable.

Maintaining the 0.8% rate for the last 4 games would be fairly improbable.

Cowboyway, one quick comment. Interceptions show a ton of randomness. One key insight: the more randomness a trait exhibits, the stronger the pull of mean reversion will be.
Look at the comments in this post after the 2009 season.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2010/4/21/1434941/predictions-put-up-or-shut-up

They basically thought the same thing you’re thinking now. It’s worth reflecting on.

Really, Romo could have had 3 picks in the last game (Holley, 1st Dez TD, ball of Murray’s hands).

For God and country - Geronimo

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Nov 17, 2011 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Yea Randomness should be taken in account

I guess that’s what i was trying to get at when I was sayin we could see his interceptions be on the Marty B variety type INTs aka random.

When he makes bone headed forced throws the percentage of it being random goes down based what made the play bone headed.

As for Holley, Dez throws I believe yes they could have been picked but I believe on the Holley play he purposely threw it high and while the defenders back was turned. As for Dez he’s playing the odds and trusting his WR about 90% of the time Dez has made that catch and will make that catch.

by CowboyWay on Nov 17, 2011 12:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Cowboyway,

One addition. One of the most compelling aspects of the interception data is we see this inconsistency across all players. It’s not just Tony Romo. One year Tom Brady is 0.8%, the next year 2.8%. One year Phillip Rivers is 2.4% one year, 4.3% the next.

We’re all rooting for the same thing though!

For God and country - Geronimo

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Nov 17, 2011 12:32 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes we are.

Love the research its on point and very intriguing

by CowboyWay on Nov 17, 2011 12:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Not so fast NYHorn....

The main reason for Romo’s high(er) INT rate early in the season was the fact that he had lots of new receivers (Robinson, Holley, Harris) in there while Miles and Dez were missing time. The Cowboys’ offense features lots of option reads on passing routes, and it was obvious these guys just weren’t on the same page as Romo. Blame the lockout for the short offseason, and lack of 1st team reps for these guys, but I think this was the main reason for all the INTs in the first 5 games or so. The return of Miles and Dez, plus time to make adjustments, has helped Romo. Add to that the fact that the OL is finally gelling, and he has more time to take care of the ball.

by Pharm.D. on Nov 18, 2011 4:13 PM CST up reply actions  

I’m surprised at Washington’s pass D numbers, I thought they had a good pass D. What with Orakpo, Kerrigan, Hall (ok maybe not Hall), Wilson (I thought we should’ve signed), Otagwe, that guy that used to play DE for us, Cofield, and Landry. What gives?

by Ben24626 on Nov 17, 2011 2:53 AM CST reply actions  

look to their offense to see the reason their defense is ranked so low....

when a unit is constantly on the field they get tired…..even orakpo is saying that teams know they are going to win when they play them…sounds like a team thats given up to me..frustration leads to a lot of things….we’ve seen that outcome before and its not pretty…

Good Luck to the 53. Stand with Honor, Play With Pride. Bring It Home

by TruBluToTheCore on Nov 17, 2011 1:53 PM CST up reply actions  

On paper it looks like a cowboys blowout win

Weird thngs seem to happen in these games. Any other team with the skins stats I would be really confident but for some reason this game makes me nervous. Another great post though fitat.

by houseofprime on Nov 17, 2011 4:45 AM CST reply actions  

Games 5 through 8 are the 2nd time Romo has attempted to rein himself in.

He did this in 09 leading to his famous statement, “Safe is death.” Reining Romo in is not the answer. The answer is having a group of players around him that do their jobs. And the better they do their jobs, the more success Romo has. Look at Rodgers. He throws the ball into tight coverage all day long. The difference is he has a group of receivers that do what they must to get the ball. If that ever changes, Rodgers will throw a bunch of picks.

Who are you? And how did you get in here?
I'm a locksmith..and..I'm a locksmith. -- Frank Drebin.

by White Wolf on Nov 17, 2011 6:00 AM CST reply actions  

I have to disagree with you there. Rodgers doesn’t throw many picks because hes so accurate and his throws are so powerful and he rarely makes bad decisions, not because of his receivers IMO.

by Ben24626 on Nov 17, 2011 8:24 AM CST up reply actions  

There never has been

nor will there ever be a QB that can sustain throwing balls into tight coverage time and time again without getting picked. I watched this guy for a while now because GB is pretty amazing ever since Rodgers 2nd season starting. His receivers battle for every ball, and I’ve seen so many that I couldn’t believe the receiver actually caught it instead of the db’s. Hey it’s JMO, but that wasn’t an off-the-cuff comment I made. It’s a studied comment. I’m not discounting Rodgers talent/greatness, I’m saying he gets more help than people realize.

Who are you? And how did you get in here?
I'm a locksmith..and..I'm a locksmith. -- Frank Drebin.

by White Wolf on Nov 17, 2011 1:02 PM CST up reply actions  

favre did as well....

Romo does to a fault as well..watch how he tosses it to Miles….when you know you have a WR that will fight for the ball and go make plays for you it opens up the area that you are able to throw the ball too……CJ is a good WR but you know that no matter how many people are on him you could almost consider him open due to his size and leaping ability….memories of 3 cowboys missing a play come to mind.

Good Luck to the 53. Stand with Honor, Play With Pride. Bring It Home

by TruBluToTheCore on Nov 17, 2011 1:56 PM CST up reply actions  

+1
"Safe is death."

awesome quote. I didn’t see that the first time around.

For God and country - Geronimo

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Nov 17, 2011 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Healthy Romo!

Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player and 2012's Superbowl MVP
"No one gives us the right, we take it." L. ~SPN

by thebigham on Nov 17, 2011 6:33 AM CST reply actions  

I remember atleast two times where Witten made an amazing "cross the face" block to allow the runner to secure a first down.

The first time I saw it, I was like wow amazing awareness and technique. The second time, I was like “Witten in the BEST”

Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player and 2012's Superbowl MVP
"No one gives us the right, we take it." L. ~SPN

by thebigham on Nov 17, 2011 9:09 AM CST reply actions  

Bonus: how many pop culture references are there in the first section (up to Net Pass YPA)

For God and country - Geronimo

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Nov 17, 2011 12:14 PM CST reply actions  

I see three

See you in my nightmares – Kanye.

Fear me like you fear God, cause I bring death – 50 Cent.

On the Attack – The Cat Empire.

Who are you? And how did you get in here?
I'm a locksmith..and..I'm a locksmith. -- Frank Drebin.

by White Wolf on Nov 17, 2011 6:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I’d like to think that the last thing that went through his head, other than that bullet, was to wonder how the hell Andy Dufresne ever got the best of him.

I made it too obscure … I now realize the right wording would have been ..

I’d like to think that the last thing that went through Jim Haslett’s head last night before he went to bed, was to wonder how the hell he was going to defend the Cowboys on Sunday.

For God and country - Geronimo

by Fan in Thick and Thin on Nov 18, 2011 7:13 PM CST up reply actions  

excellent Movie

Here’s a theoretical play from 2010: Snap. Tony takes 7 step drop. Tony looks left at Miles, who is doubled, and looks right to where Roy Williams should be…but instead sees Colombo on his back and a Defensive End foaming at the mouth jumping over Marc’s carcass. Tony proceeds to run like hell and look for Witten
-by CotySaxman on Jul 11, 2011 7:50 AM PDT

Now, if somebody doesn’t agree with that, that’s cool. I also don’t agree with the fact that I don’t have $10 million in my bank account. But the fact that I don’t agree with it doesn’t make it any less true.
by One.Cool.Customer on Dec 23, 2010 12:00 AM PST

by I am Ironman!!! on Nov 18, 2011 10:54 PM CST up reply actions  

You know FiTaT...

I used to be stat heavy like you, but football is much more than that. So I gave up being so reliable about stats.

But these posts are awesome. I’m going to find a happy medium with stats like I’ve been trying to do all this season.

Not like baseball where you can rely on all stats.

Realist.

by DCyanks21 on Nov 17, 2011 3:00 PM CST reply actions  

You're wrong

Stats are everything, that’s why Madden is so accurate. Take the Eagles for example. Best team on paper = oh, never mind….

by Ben24626 on Nov 17, 2011 9:17 PM CST up reply actions  

I completely disagree

Eagles had problems before the season started and stats were not the things that misled us.

Rather narratives and the eye-ball test suggested that we believe something we had no stats on.

Hey now, Romo got to learn under Quincy Carter, Testaverde and Bledsoe. Which is like a human child being raised by a wolf. -DavidH22
If Romulus can do it, so can Romo. ....WAIT A MINUTE - NYHORN

I'm not saying Tony Romo is the reincarnation of the mythical Romulus. I'm just saying

by NYHorn on Nov 18, 2011 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

Naturally

Stats are hindsight-dependent. The event need occur before quantification of it and any subsequent statistical use may be made of such accumulated data, be it interpretive or probabilistic.

They’re about trhe Past, not the Present or Future.

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Nov 18, 2011 5:36 PM CST up reply actions  

They can determine the future certainly.

To get a hypothesis going and looking at past data to show trends.

Realist.

by DCyanks21 on Nov 19, 2011 1:24 PM CST up reply actions  

You'd best look up "certainty" as it relates to "certainly"

Study up on “determine the Future” and get a handle on precisely what a hypothesis is. Trend or not.

Not trying to come across harshly or as an a$$hole, but your statement and the understanding of what statistics are and are capable of is woefully inaccurate as relates to the unfolding of future events.

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Nov 19, 2011 4:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Whoops, my mistake.

Well someone can predict (with a hypothesis) what can happen in the future by looking at stats.

Realist.

by DCyanks21 on Nov 19, 2011 8:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Many things "can" happen. One "will".

Now you just need to work on and understand “predict” and “prediction”.

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Nov 19, 2011 9:12 PM CST up reply actions  

You're really being a giant jerk.

You’re way too literal for me. And look into too much what people say. You damn well know what I’m talking about, but you have to be difficult. So annoying.

I’m not an illiterate hobo that lives down by the river.

Realist.

by DCyanks21 on Nov 19, 2011 9:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Whoa. Never said or implied stupidity.

Do not ever put those words into my mouth. If I think someone’s stupid, I’ll say it outright. And your irk’s yours to deal with, the why and what to do of it, not mine.

Cry 'Havoc!'

by tanstaafl on Nov 19, 2011 10:48 PM CST up reply actions  

This is my belief:

Objective Statistics are the most accurate indicators of performance but we can only truly have a grasp of them at the end of a game or a season or a career.

Subjective Viewpoints can give us a much “quicker” in-the-moment view of how the game is going, but are proven to be wrong quite often, at least on my account.

Maybe, just maybe, it’s possible that we can never truly “know” how well a team performs until after they play. But, this is just my belief

Hey now, Romo got to learn under Quincy Carter, Testaverde and Bledsoe. Which is like a human child being raised by a wolf. -DavidH22
If Romulus can do it, so can Romo. ....WAIT A MINUTE - NYHORN

I'm not saying Tony Romo is the reincarnation of the mythical Romulus. I'm just saying

by NYHorn on Nov 19, 2011 10:31 PM CST up reply actions  

well put horn, then there's this thing called the "eye test"

it really is a new great invention & everyone is taking part of it

by DarkKnight88 on Nov 20, 2011 1:16 AM CST up reply actions  

About the "Darkos" , they haven't really played the best passing teams, have they?

That could be part of it.
I don’t really know enough about Houston’s players to comment on them much, but I’ve heard talk that they’ve really improved on D. Obviously Phillips, who was ripped here, is getting it done either way, and Mario Williams has been out.

Pop Culture-for Wade-“We’ll always have the second half of ’09…..”

Maybe he’s just better focusing on D and not being head coach, also.

Pessimists say the cup is half-empty, while optimists say it's half-full. Well, the real question is, is it a good beer? Realist Larry, 2011

by Realist Larry on Nov 18, 2011 11:35 PM CST reply actions  

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