Cowboys 20, Dolphins 19: Things We Learned

this is just my approach. feel free to ignore it.

I basically ignore statistics that aren’t consistent, especially ones that may be explained by small sample size. inconsistency suggests the statistic isn’t a repeatable skill

red zone performance isn’t consistent

In general, red zone performance tends to regress toward the mean from season to season, with "the mean" being that specific team’s overall quality rather than the league average. But is this also true during the season? It seems dramatically counterintuitive. We quote red zone efficiency stats during games, because we assume that teams that have played well in the red zone so far this season will probably play better in the red zone going forward. And yet, it doesn’t look like that’s the case.

We went back and looked at the past five years to compare how teams did in the red zone during the first seven weeks of the season with how they played overall. Let’s call this "red zone advantage." We can see how predictive red zone advantage is by using correlation coefficients, a common statistical method for measuring the relationship between two variables that results in a number ranging from minus-1 (at which the two variables have an exact inverse relationship) to 1 (at which the variables have a perfectly positive relationship).

The correlation of total offensive DVOA in the first seven weeks to total offensive DVOA in the final 10 weeks is .64. That makes plenty of sense: Teams that play well on offense early in the season are likely to play well on offense late in the season. The same correlation for defense is .48, a little lower but still fairly significant.

However, the correlation for "red zone advantage" is practically nil: .01, to be exact, on both offense and defense. During the past five seasons, at least, "red zone advantage" has done nothing to project how well a team will play in the red zone during the second half of the year.

this is why I wasn’t worried about the offensive red zone performance at mid-season (which has predictably turned around) and why I’m not encouraged by defensive red zone performance yesterday.

some other comments on red zone performance

First, there is little to it in substance. (Good/bad Os are good/bad Os all over the field, what magic is there inside the 20 to reverse them?

The magic of a shortened field to work with.

Yes, a nice familiar popular theory. Too bad it doesn’t fit the facts.

Last year the big passing Packers offense was tied at #3 in red zone scoring rate (63%) — because the short field took away its ability to score long?

Last year’s Jets with their big rushing of 150 yards/game but Sanchez at QB sure don’t look like they were hampered much by sudden inabilty to throw long from inside the 20, but were at the bottom in red zone efficiency, 44%.

This year’s Jets have the same O, except worse — the O-line and running gamehave collapsed (3.7 from 4.4 y/carry, 90 yds/game) — but they have rocketed up to the very top in red zone efficiency.

"Short field inside the 20" explains all this … how?

How small sample size can explain it is pretty obvious.

Darth Bailey haha, Dan the Man works great too.

No better way to enter the playoffs then back to back wins against Philly and NYG.

offensive net pass YPA: 6.2 y/a
defenisve net pass YPA: 7.3 y/a

Dallas’s defense has now been below average in 4 of the last 5 games (PHI, SEA, WAS, MIA).

net pass YPA tends to be inconsistent, so I was curious and also checked defensive pass success rate (which is more consistent than net pass YPA). I don’t have the numbers for yest game but same pattern … below average in 3 of the last 4 games (and my strong suspicion is that is was below average against MIA as well).

So this isn’t a case of 1 or 2 big pass plays inflating the net pass YPA numbers. The Dallas pass D really isn’t playing that well.

Pretty awesome to think even in a good year like 2009 we didn’t ever hit that mark.

Prepare for the Cardinals. Kolb or Skelton.

I can think of once that’s pretty sure, but other times it’s hard to tell.
It only takes a RB one mistake to get Romo knocked out like last year.
I’ll be curious to see his grades in the PFF write-up in that area.

Anyone else notice him maybe missing a blitz pickup?
Hard to enjoy these last 2 wins because they’ve basically been magic escaping acts by Romo to win the games-the blocking seems to get worse each week.

i was shouting " not again !! " after the Int’s but then he had me cheering on that miraculous TD drive in the second half.
Dammitt Romo my nerves were shredded by games end.
Great final drive and well done Bailey on the winning FG.
we need Jenkins back ( Ball is Balls) .

Romo will never get any. Ever. He could pass for 600 yards and 12 touchdowns in the super bowl and they still won’t give him credit.

He kept the plays alive. He took the risks he had to take. That INT deep was his fault, but Robinson owned up to the second one.

I think that is one of our passing issues. Garrett has been pretty cute with these “precise” routes. He needs to let his hair down a bit and let these guys play “street ball.” That’s where Romo shines. If he can design formations to buy him 5 to 7 seconds, roll out, signal guys open, etc… we’re looking at an unstoppable team.

Murray has proven himself now without a true FB. He has the vision and patience to find the holes or run outside when the holes collapse. Again, give Romo some credit for selling the play action so well. They’re both keeping defenses on their toes with it.

Ware needs some help on the other side. My word man…double teams, holding, TACKLING of him by linemen just to keep him at bay. Unstoppable.

Robinson has probably earned the #1 spot for the rest of the season. He’s seemed a little off the last two games, but that’s going to happen. When Austin gets back, having these 3 WRs on the field at the same time is going to be a nightmare. Dez is getting doubled all the time. They’re doing all they can to shut him down and it’s working. They can’t double everyone. And if they do, the screen game/check downs will be wide open.

Referee Bias: I say it every week. “Refs don’t want Dallas to win.” So sick of the garbage calls. It’s on thing to make the garbage calls. It’s another thing to only call them so one sided like they do. Ware had a sack. That was some petty, petty “illegal contact” by Elam. I’m sure the Dolphins were all over our guys like that or worse.

But his veins run cold. He shrugged it off and and brought them back for the victory. He didn’t do that agianst the Jets or Lions. I see this as a positive.

I give him credit…

He doesn’t have the best hands in the world, but he runs really pretty routes. I love watching him run his routes when they deign to show us a wide shot. His improv skills are pretty nice too. We just need someone to leave a case of Stick ’Em in his locker.

On a completely unrelated note, Phillips was actually able to create a little space with a couple of his blocks yesterday. His blocks usually just end up adding an extra body where the hole is supposed to be. He doesn’t really get beat by the guy he’s blocking, but he doesn’t create space like Fiammetta is able to do.

I want to see Dez doing full time punt returns. Felix needs to get his aggressiveness back on kick returns. That should really make a difference in this team’s overall performance. It’s quick, it’s obvious, and it makes the biggest difference given the personnel we have.

No more one-on-one coverage with Alan Ball.

What I love most about him is his ability to run inside, outside and catch the ball WITHOUT putting the ball on the ground. That is a prerequisite for being a good NFL back.

I’ve been calling him Split’Em for the last 23 made field goal attempts, before anyone else even thought to give him a nickname. Seniority hahaha.

Outside of Split’Em, I love Darth Bailey the most.

If Fiamatta is uncertain we need one.
Now.

happily releases Martellus Bennett

FTW.

I thought he did not hit the hole like he had been until the 4th quarter. The 4th was a different story, … he was decisive and powerful.

FEAR THE STAR

That reminded me of the Giants gm. I know he’s down about losing his job but he needs to focus.We can’t have that down the stretch.

Why are we having our starting QB hold. Its been weeks now can’t someone else do it yet?

Put your Cowboys bias aside, if you’re able. Three games. If you could only watch one, which won? Which’d you, as a fan, give thanks most for? Good, bad, beautiful or ugly, which’s worth your heart and time?

“He seems like he always finds me. It’s kind of crazy," Robinson said. "I call it a little I-AA connection because he went to Eastern Illinois and I went to Illinois State."


"When I see him scramble, I’m scrambling," Robinson said. "I’m running the same direction as him so he can see me. He made a great throw, and it was an easy catch for me because he put the throw right on the money."

The I-AA thing is awesome.

Imagine a game where a Tom Brady throws two interceptions and then comes back to win a close game by driving the length of the field on the last drive of the game for a comeback win. Do you think the headlines would have been about ‘another scare’ or an ‘escape’? Seriously?

Oh wait, I just described Brady’s game against the Cowboys in week six of this year. Brady threw two interceptions in that game, at home, and led the final drive to beat the Cowboys 20-16 with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter. Sound familiar? Eery similarity to yesterday’s game intended.

Sample headlines after that game: Difficult to stop Brady in the clutch – Tom Brady & Co save the best for last, cool under pressure – Brady, Pats shine in clutch – Tom Brady is the NFL’s most clutch player – you get the drift.

I was saying the exact same thing yesterday. Ain’t it the truth?

That is what I am calling him now, mostly because I think the Darth Vader theme would be very fitting for when he walks onto the field for a field goal, especially for a game winner. The guy is a kicker that you have to be scared of because he just doesn’t miss.