Here are the key metrics for the DAL / SEA game

via advancednflstats.com

Offensive pass efficiency is the same as the net pass YPA I use in my posts

Here’s success rate explained

SR is a very simple concept in principle and has been around for decades. Each play is graded as either a success or not based on its outcome. For example, if a play gains 3 yards on 3rd and 2, that would be a success. But those same 3 yards would be a failure if the situation were 3rd and 4. In the seminal book from the 1980s Hidden Game of Football, the authors devised a simple rule of thumb based on their intuitive sense of football success. A success would be: On 1st down--a gain of 4 or more yards; on 2nd down--a gain that at least halved the distance to go; and on 3rd down--a conversion for a new set of downs.

Although I have nothing against this rule of thumb and am generally a big fan of simplicity, my own definition of SR is different. Using the concept of Expected Points Added (EPA), successes can be defined more precisely. Any play that results in a positive change in an offense’s net point expectancy can be considered a success. This technique not only accounts for down and distance considerations, but for field position as well. For example, a play that gains 10 yards on 3rd and 12 would normally be considered a failure, but if those 10 yards put the team in field goal range, that might be considered a success. It also accounts for the effects of the shortened field in the red zone.

Observations:

-Pass efficiency and run success rate do not have equal weights. Pass efficiency is more important

-SEA offense looks poor both running and passing the ball.

-SEA defense is great (best in the NFL great) defending the run / below average defending the pass

-DAL offense is above average passing / average running

-If Dallas tries to ‘establish the run’ they will be playing to SEA relative strength and DAL relative weakness.

-Felix Jones: One quick comment about Felix. I’ve been puzzled by Dallas’s relatively poor passing efficiency (8.2, 9.7, 6.8, 6.7, 7.0, 5.8, 4.7).  Felix is murder in the passing game. One hypothesis: maybe Felix, with his blocking and as a receiving threat, helps the passing game more than we realize.