Lies, Damned Lies, and Cowboys Offensive Statistics Against the Eagles
by DavidH22 on Dec 19, 2011 11:43 AM CST
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PrintI have a few worries about this team offensively for our Christmas Eve matchup, never mind defensively, which is a topic for another blogger and another holiday (I'm looking at you, Festivus).
My main concern is, "can Felix Jones cut it against the Eagles defense?" He didn't have a carry in the game earlier this season (I believe he was injured and Murray had taken over the starting RB spot anyway), but his last four performances against the Eagles in 2010 and 2009 shows some promise, fwiw:
15-91-1 1-3-0
16-148-1 1-30-0
13-41-0 4-42-0
11-81-0 1-(-4)-0
Rushing - 55-361-2
Receiving - 7-71-0
Time has gone by and some key players have changed since then, but it's entirely plausible that Jones could break a big run or two against the Eagles, and maybe even a long reception. But will the Cowboys continue to give him 25+ touches a game? I hope so, because it seems like keeping Vick and Shady and company off the field will be the Cowboys best defense. Murray played very well despite the blowout and the Eagles defense can be run on, although they have tightened up as of late.
I am also concerned with the way that the Eagles apparently dominated the Cowboys receivers, with Austin and Bryant combining for a wretched 6-55, when they at least should have done better since the Cowboys were behind so early by so much. As a Romo fantasy owner, I was extremely disappointed that the passing attack could not generate any garbage time (i.e. entire second half) yards or scores. Are the Eagles DBs really that good? Or did they benefit from serious pass rush assistance (four sacks of Romo) in the week 8 debacle?
At least Romo has never had two bad games in a row against the Eagles (I just knocked on wood after I typed that), and never had two bad games against Philadelphia in one season. It’s true –
2007 at Phil – 25-20-324-3-1 win 38-17
2007 at Dal – 36-14-212-0-3 lose 6-10
2008 at Dal – 30-21-312-3-1 win 41-37
2008 at Phil – 39-21-183-0-1 lose 6-44
2009 at Phil – 34-21-301-1-1 win 20-16
2009 at Dal – 34-24-311-2-0 win 24-0
2009 at Dal – 35-23-244-2-0 win 34-14
2011 at Phil – 35-18-203-1-1 lose 7-34
Total Romo against Eagles:
5-3 record
268-162-1907-12-8 (84.6 rating)
These stats could mean nothing when it comes to Saturday’s game, and probably don’t. But if you believe that past performance guarantees future results, well…who knows what the future will bring. All I know is that chances are that this game will not be a low-scoring affair. The winner of the last nine games between these two teams has scored 265 points, or close to 30 each victory. I think the Cowboys will need at least 28 points to have a shot of beating the Eagles, and likely more. The offense is running on all cylinders, but the defense is, well…suspect. Not just suspect, but banged up and having no history of stopping Michael Vick. I mean NONE. I don’t know what Vegas is saying yet, but I will be surprised if the Cowboys are favored by more than 3 and if the Over/Under is less than 50. So far as this fan is concerned, all bets are off!
Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.
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It'll be a tough game
for sure. Philly is still very dangerous, and they know they still have a chance to win the division. Our defense needs to play their best game on Sunday.
The Cowboys defense or lack there of dictated the offensive struggles
I’ve stated before about that game the offense was held back by the defense.
The eagles bread and butter on defense is to get up on you make you abandon the run and pass against talented corners and a fierce pass rush.
That’s exactly what happened in the first match up. Because our defense gave up a quick 21 points we had no choice but to pass. That makes it easier for the defense to know what’s coming and defend.
Where they struggle is containing the run and play action. Their Lbs are below average and their safetys are as well. But when you don’t have to worry about the run its easier to defend the pass. As long as this game is close I don’t see their defense holding us under 20 points.
Be mindful this offense, QB WRs to be exact are clicking on all cylinders. In the first meeting dez, miles, and Robinson were still trying to click. The line was still getting it together.
In a close game lining up Dez, Miles, Robinson, Witten with Felix in the backfield causes more problems when you don’t know what’s coming. The Lbs and safetys can’t cover Witten Felix or any WR that plays the slot. If they cheat with the wide 9 Romo can kill into a draw with Felix and that would get shredded.
by CowboyWay on Dec 19, 2011 12:03 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I don’t know what Vegas is saying yet, but I will be surprised if the Cowboys are favored by more than 3
It’s 3.5.
feeling better about the Eagles?
w-l record is a disappointment … but they can play.
For God and country - Geronimo
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Dec 19, 2011 2:30 PM CST up reply actions
Slightly better. At some point, you start to wonder “Maybe they’re just not that talented.” I think that “Maybe they’re just not that talented” is the worst explanation because it means a much longer and difficult fix, as opposed to whatever other reasoning one might think up on the awful season. But clearly, when they put it together, it’s a scary team.
But then you start to think about “what could have been,” and you’re right back to not feeling so great about them anymore.
I’ll feel a lot better if this little run of against-the-odds playoff hopes stays alive.
all the turnovers killed them. that was the risk that could torpedo the season … and it came up snake eyes.
For God and country - Geronimo
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Dec 19, 2011 5:55 PM CST up reply actions
they’re 31st in the league in turnover margin. dead last in giveaways.
you have to be very very good to overcome that.
For God and country - Geronimo
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Dec 19, 2011 5:58 PM CST up reply actions
that’s pretty unbelievable now that I think about it.
31 give-aways in 14 games. that’s averaging over 2 per game.
every game PHI was pretty much playing with a 2 TO handicap. This must have been a painful painful season.
but seriously, just like Vick wasn’t going to maintain a 0% int rate, the Eagles aren’t going to maintain that rate of giveaways. mean reversion is on the way.
For God and country - Geronimo
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Dec 19, 2011 6:18 PM CST up reply actions
I think they're one "very" short of making that work
The Eagles are very good.
Jimmy: that’s a talented bunch—surely the most talented in the NFC East. I have a weird feeling that they might just pull this whole thing out of the bag, giving them a chance to go to GB and make some noise….
What's the over/under
and do you know a bookie? Because I have a feeling the Cowboys aren’t going to cover…
Also fwiw
Michael Vick’s numbers against Dallas over past five seasons:
2006 – 24-16-237-4-1 8-56-0
2010 – 26-16-270-2-2 8-16-1
2011 – 28-21-279-2-0 7-50-0
78-53-786-8-3 (118.9 rating)
23-122-1
So far as I am concerned, this is going to have to be a Villanova basketall 1986 type performance for the Cowboys on both sides of the ball. Constant overacheiving on defense and virtual perfection on offense.
2006 doesn't look right?
We crushed them they didnt have 28 points did they?
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player and 2012's Superbowl MVP
"No one gives us the right, we take it." L. ~SPN
I guess so ha.
Tony Romo 2011's League's Most Valuable Player and 2012's Superbowl MVP
"No one gives us the right, we take it." L. ~SPN
we had to outscore them
that was after the Saints exposed us and if we couldn’t outscore an opponent we couldn’t win
by somebodyquiet on Dec 19, 2011 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
the more I think about it, the less confident I am.
In the game against their starters last year, Philly went up and down the field against us (though we at least made them work for it unlike this season). This team has not handled Mike Vick well at all. The previous game was an absolute embarassment – we couldn’t tackle Vick of McCoy. We had one of the worst defensive outings I can remember.
I think we’re going to see a far different defense this time. There is just no way we are going to play two safeties deep. Now, we may see more zone to try to get a turnover or two, but I think we will also go with press coverage on a few plays.
But really, we’re going to need some awesome performances from our pass rushers. Last time it was just Ware and Ratliff – 2 guys aren’t going to corral Vick on their own. We need Hatcher + Butler + Spencer to all be effective.
I almost hope the Giants beat the Jets
So Philly’s season will be over.
here’s one thing to watch for:
1st down passes. Last year that’s how Philly killed Dallas.
They throw on 1st down when Spears and Coleman (or Igor last year) are on the field. Peters mans up on Ware and they have about 10 seconds to throw.
RR isn’t an idiot. He played the safeties deep for a good reason.
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2011/2/22/2008728/1-10-defense-under-the-epa-microscope
For God and country - Geronimo
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Dec 20, 2011 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
an oh yea, PHI looks terrible bc they have 31 giveaways.
if the giveaways don’t happen (and we all know my view on that) expect a tight game.
For God and country - Geronimo
by Fan in Thick and Thin on Dec 20, 2011 1:19 PM CST up reply actions
This is almost the worst case scenario for DAL
Division rival that has already trounced us once, while presenting significant matchup problems on both sides of the ball. The intangibles and history also seem to favor PHL.
At this point the only thing I can rely on with confidence is both teams stunning ability to do what’s completely unexpected
I don't make mistakes...just understandable bad choices
I look at it the other way
If we want to win this division, which isn’t that strong this year anyway, we’d better be able to knock off our competition down the stretch. Win and keep winning. If we don’t win, we’re not that good to begin with and need to reflect on how to get better throughout the organization.
I actually love these situations because it’s direct matchups against rivals with high stakes. We’ll find out what inside this team over the next two weeks. Bring it on, I can’t wait.
I rather not know and make the playoffs lol.
Basically just beat the Giants, but if the Giants lose PLEASE WIN COWBOYS.
Laurent "All I do is catch touchdowns" Robinson
That would take a lot of the pressure off
I’d still like this team to show its mettle under pressure, like the 1970, 1971, 1991 and 1993 teams down the stretch. They ground good teams into mush heading into the playoffs.
Wouldn't know.
Lucky you if you’ve seen great Cowboy playoff teams.
Laurent "All I do is catch touchdowns" Robinson
I watched the end of the 2002 season.
So barely missed.
Laurent "All I do is catch touchdowns" Robinson
Been watching the Cowboys play since I was 7 years old.
Remember my Dad cursing Bart Star when we lost the Championship game in Greenbay… seems people tend to forget before there was a Superbowl we played in two of the NFC Championship games in Greenbay against Lombardi’s Packers and almost won both of them.
RexP
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