The Cowboys left too many men on base.
In baseball, it is not how many hits a team gets, but rather the timeliness of the hits. A base hit with the bases loaded could result in winning a pitcher's duel. Conversely, getting one hit every inning (9 hits total) could leave a team losing without scoring a run.
The timeliness of the hitting in baseball is measured by the number of runs scored. The inverse of situational hitting is measured by how many base runners were left on base at the conclusion of the game.
On Sunday afternoon, Dallas left too many men on base. Ironically, these Cardinals also won against a team from Texas by making the clutch play.
Before the final drive that led to the missed field goal, the Cowboys were 0 for 7 on third down attempts on Arizona's side of the field. On the final drive, Romo sneaked for a first down on 3rd and 1, and then completed a 15-yard pass to Dez Bryant to put Dallas in field goal range.
Those were the only third down conversions on the Arizona side of the field all game. Obviously those conversions failed to lead to points.
On the other hand, the Cardinals converted two third downs in Dallas territory in the second half of the game, and those conversions led to 10 points. Arizona accumulated 118 yards after half time on plays run from Dallas' side of the field. Arizona averaged 9.8 yards on 12 plays run from Dallas territory.
Contrast that to the ineptitude of the Dallas Cowboys offense on Sunday. The Cowboys ran 31 plays from Arizona's side of the field for 96 yards (an average of 3.1 yards per play). Unlike the Cardinals, this was the total from the entire game, not just one half.
Dallas amassed 240 yards on their end of the field. In baseball parlance, the Cowboys got a lot of base hits, but left many runners on base.
But why did the Cowboys hitters come up short when getting in scoring position? There were reasons for the slump.
Dallas' first two drives ended with incomplete passes. Then Dallas faced a 3rd and 11 (1-yard pass to Bryant), and a 3rd and 13 (Romo was sacked). The Cowboys again ended their fifth drive with an incomplete pass.
Romo led a touchdown drive without facing a third down. Afterwards, the half ended the next drive after Tony was sacked on second down. The Cowboys first drive of the second half ended when Dallas was unable to convert a 3rd and 16 (4-yard pass to Witten).
The Cowboys had their next drive fail after gaining 8 yards on 2nd down and 13 when Romo was sacked again on 3rd and 5. The penultimate drive faded when Phillips gained 4 yards on a pass on 3rd and 5.
The pattern is obvious. Dallas converted 2 out of 10 third down opportunities when passing the ball. Romo faced six situations where the offense had suffered a loss of yardage during the drive. The other third down situations ended with 3 incomplete passes and a pass that came up a yard short.
It reminded me of a post that O.C.C. published on this site about a year ago, where he noted that Jason Garrett was forced to go for large chunks of yardage on a regular basis because of the regularity with which the offense would lose yardage through penalties or permitting tackles for loss. This game morphed into a 2008 Dallas Cowboys game after the first quarter.
The Cowboys ran the ball 8 times in the first quarter for 41 yards. The Cardinals adapted by providing more pressure at the Cowboys weak spot: center Phil Costa. Afterwards, the Cowboys only gained 7 yards on 5 carries in the second quarter. Murray had back to back rushes for -3 yards. Given the sudden decrease in rushing average from 5.1 yards per carry to 1.4 yards per carry, one could understand why Jason only ran the ball five more times the rest of the game.
Garrett seemed to change his original game strategy from one heavily incorporating the run, to one featuring solely the pass. Three of Dallas' first four drives started with a run (going for gains of 7, 7, and -3 yards). After those first four drives, every drive for the rest of the game started with a called pass play (eight drives in a row started with Romo dropping back to pass).
Furthermore, on first downs, a down that should be close to a 50/50 split between run and pass, the Cowboys ran the ball 9 times and passed 21 times. This mirrored the trend in the game, as Garrett ran the ball 5 times (for 23 yards) on the Cowboys' initial 7 first down plays. Then Jason called 19 first down passes and 4 first down runs (which only netted 8 yards).
The Cardinals maintained a well-balanced attack, starting six drives with a passing play, and five drives with a run. Arizona ran the ball 14 times on first down, while calling pass plays 10 times.
The Dallas defense continued its disturbing trend following halftime. Arizona had drives of 74 yards, 79 yards, and 80 yards leading to 16 points (two touchdowns and a point-blank field goal) in the second half and overtime.
The defenses' failure to stop opponents in the second half of games has become commonplace over the last few weeks. In addition, an old nemesis to this Cowboys team once again reared its ugly head: untimely penalties. The Cowboys finished with 7 penalties for 49 yards, but several were too much to overcome:
The block in the back on Orlando Scandrick to wipe out a punt return by Dez Bryant amounting to a 43-yard difference in field position (which was even more egregious when noted that Orlando had a similar penalty earlier in the game).
The pass interference on Terrence Newman that extended the final drive on a play where the condition was 2nd and 19.
There will be much talk about time-outs, but this game should have been closed out well before the final 23 seconds of the fourth quarter. As in baseball, it is difficult to criticize the manager for making moves when there are a multitude of fielding errors and pitchers giving up runs.
It is remarkable that Dallas had an opportunity to win this game given the number of errors committed on defense, offense, and special teams. It is easy to understand why Garrett chose to play it safe and not take a chance that the offense loses more yardage before the 49-yard field goal attempt.
At that point, Bailey had connected on 26 of 28 field goal attempts this season. Dan was connecting on about 93% of his attempts. By comparison, the Cowboys had 9 plays that lost yardage against the Cardinals (out of 67 total offensive plays), meaning that Dallas lost yardage on 13.4% of their plays.
The right move was to kick the field goal. Bailey is still making 90% of his attempts: so it remains the right move.
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Nice post
I think the analogy is right on point. That’s exactly how the game felt—lots of big hits to cheer, but no runs batted in.
However, I do think you should have closed by returning to your overall theme—that the Cowboys left too many of base. The last four paragraphs seems like a different essay, one that you already wrote today.
Nonetheless, I like it. Rec.
"Confidence doesn't come out of nowhere. It's a result of something... hours and days and weeks and years of constant work and dedication." --Roger Staubach
To add to your analogy
Garrett smashed a sure fire home run by calling a deep fade from Romo, who threw the ball perfectly….the smash was going, going….CAUGHT!
Robbed of a home run when Felix Jones inexplicably made no play for the easy catch and run….Seven Points down the tubes : (
like failing to tag up on a deep fly ball?
trying to keep the analogy going.
Romo is thousand times smarter than you so does that make you dumb?? Just curious
by I_miss_Switzer on Dec 7, 2011 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
I want to point out that Romo missed Laureant Robinson on a deep route early on
Robinson made the reception, but the ball hung and forced him to chop out of his sprint to stop and catch the ball. If Romo puts that ball in the right spot and hits Robinson in stride, Dallas goes up by two TD’s and entire complexion of the game changes.
But then, football is a game of if, if, if…
"Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
You could also note that Romo threw a nice pass to Felix that Felix never turned
around to see until it dropped to the ground right in front of him. It was a sure touchdown. There’s stuff like that in every game.
after the that play
I think I dropped about 5 F-bombs on Felix.
Hey Washington... D.C. stands for Dallas Cowboys
DeMarcus is EveryWare Man
Twitter: @silva918
yep, there were many moments like that throughout the game
not necessarily Romo, the team as a whole was racking up missed opportunities.
ScarletO, this game reminded me of the Minny playoff game – there was an invisible wall at the 35-40 that we couldn’t get through
How did the offensive line block that day?
Who made plays on the defense that day?
Good memory…
All Season Long . . .
. . . the offense has underperformed. Almost all of the losses are directly attributable to the offense failing to score points when given the chance. Very frustrating turn of events.
i see it almost completely opposite
the defense could have stopped the Patriots. And the Jets. And the Lions. And the Cardinals.
These are all team losses. Even the eagles loss was a complete team loss
You Stop Brady
by not giving him the ball. Dallas has more firepower and purported talent on the offense. I get the oline is subpar but Dallas squandared opportunities galore to put the Cardinals away givne great field position; this is my point. I am not saying the defense is up to par but the offense could have and should have moved the ball in the losses at key times that would have kept the defense off the field. Plus, the defense did its job game after game to give the Cowboy offense the ball, only to see the offense stutter and stumble. It is not realistic to expect the current Cowboy defense to stop offenses over and over and over. The offense has got to grind out time of of possession and score points. That the offense has not done, except occasionally.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
So damn funny! Yet so painfully true.
Optimissum Prime sees nothing but the best for America's Team!!!
by Cowboys_Attack on Dec 6, 2011 11:19 AM CST up reply actions
Great post!
Hey, man. That was a really good analogy and breakdown.
It killed me to see Murray on the sideline, itching to get back in. I truly feel that coach Garrett and some fans on this site do not appreciate that the O-line – the keystone of your offense – practices and gets in sync primarily with one runner. It is a blessing if your backup (sorry to call Felix a backup, sounds demeaning,) comes in early and carries your lead back’s momentum long enoung for your lead back to rest. IMO even though Felix had a couple good runs right away (if I remember correctly,) Coach should have put Murray back in. He was clearly ready.
Like you said, drive stalls. After that the Cards’ D and crowd (their formula,) started working, our O never fell back into a sustained rhythm, we started making dumb errors, our D spent chunks of time on the field, etc etc.
IDK which Giants team will show. We normally get the their best @ home. We had better be ready to earn our division…
I smell something... It smells like... hope. And BBQ.
by BlueNSilverBlood on Dec 6, 2011 9:06 PM CST reply actions
and... there i stand on 3rd base...... looks around........
the cheer has faded away….. the stands have emptied……..
my team mates , all have left…….and the light slowly dims…….
it was then that i took a moment to reflect…… what might have been…..
if only.. i had kept running and not stopped to gawk …..at the floozy w/ low cut top .
woman !, don't try to understand em, don't try to make them understand you, for they are a breed apart ! lol
(redskins)= A Tale of 2 owners, bought by Snyder, OWNED by the COWBOYS
Id say RIP Al Davis, but i know your up there drunker than a monkey and clocking angels in the 40 yd dash.
"the Cowboys were 0 for 7 on third down attempts on Arizona's side of the field."
Terrific and very telling statistic.
Nice work!
yeah that alone just killed us .......
woman !, don't try to understand em, don't try to make them understand you, for they are a breed apart ! lol
(redskins)= A Tale of 2 owners, bought by Snyder, OWNED by the COWBOYS
Id say RIP Al Davis, but i know your up there drunker than a monkey and clocking angels in the 40 yd dash.
I do not think there could have been a more accurate summary of the game Sunday
Dallas has not played well the last three games. It was bound to catch up with them.
I have not read through all of the posts here following the loss, but has anyone talked about the Cowboys going back to McBriar holding again instead of Romo? and if that had much if any affect of the two missed field goals?
Strange that the Giants having lost four in a row might be coming into this game with more confidence.
"Talent is God-given; be humble. Fame is man-given; be grateful. Conceit is self-given; be careful." John Wooden
Great Post
That block in the back was probably the worst play of that game, if that play stands different outcome. But hey thats how the ball bounces some times
Billion dollar dream and hundred dollar nightmares
Close
The right move was to kick the field goal. Bailey is still making 90% of his attempts: so it remains the right move.
What did you end such a good post with a lousy conclusion?
They lost yardage on 13.4% of their plays … which means that they either went for zero yards (e.g., an incomplete pass) or positive yards on 87.6% of their plays.
At that point, Bailey had connected on 26 of 28 field goal attempts this season. Dan was connecting on about 93% of his attempts.
Wrong stats. Bailey was 1 of 2 from long distance on Sunday, and that one squeaked in by literally inches. I read somewhere that league-wide, the average on a 49 yarder is 50%. That number goes up to about 80% if you are ten yards closer. Get another 10 yards and you are at 90+%.
The right play was to get more yards to make it a higher percentage kick.
As someone I heard put it, in that very situation (i.e., 26 seconds left and 1 TO – after taking a TO), the Cowboys have their entire playbook available to them. They can pass, they can run, they can do anything. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are in desperation mode because they know another 10 yards will turn the kick from a coin flip to nearly a sure thing. In this situation, the extreme advantage is with the offense because the defensive players are more like to react to their first read (in order to make a play) instead of sticking with their assignment. Throw in some misdirection, a play-action fake, or a double move and you’ll likely get a big gainer that puts the game on ice.
You cannot play the game in fear of making a mistake. However, that is how Garrett played it, and a big reason why we lost.
What he said ^
Lifelong Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
My Beer Blog: http://tiltingsuds.wordpress.com/
I would love to show you the finer points to a muay thai clinch whipped knee to the face seanrude
by matt575 on Nov 22, 2011 3:09 AM EST
While I respect the points you (and many others) have made, I obviously disagree.
“You cannot play the game in fear of making a mistake.”
Dallas called 47 pass plays and ran the ball 20 times in that game. That hardly sounds like a coach that is calling a game in fear of making a mistake.
That also does not sound like a coach that does not trust his quarterback. A ridiculous point that you thankfully did not parrot from the mainstream media.
As my post highlights, this game was lost before the final 26 seconds. Notice that Dallas frequently ran plays that resulted in negative yardage. On 1st and 10, Dallas lost yardage on 5 plays. Dallas ran 30 total plays on first down: so on almost 17% of the first down plays, the Cowboys lost an average of just over 4 yards.
As you say, “…the Cowboys have their entire playbook available to them. They can pass, they can run, they can do anything.” By the way, I believe Bill Cowher had that quote.
On 1st and 10, that is generally the situation. Yet the Cowboys lost an average of more than 4 yards on one out of every six plays on first down. On another nine (9) 1st and 10 plays (not including the final spike), the Cowboys gained zero yards.
Therefore, on roughly 48% of the offensive plays run on 1st and 10, the Cowboys gained less than 1 yard. So Dallas’ odds of gaining yards on that particular 1st down play were about the same as winning the coin flip to begin overtime.
Dallas only gained more than 7 yards five times on 1st and 10 plays. So while you suggest that gaining “…another 10 yards will turn the kick from a coin flip to nearly a sure thing”, Dallas gained more than 7 yards on about 17% of their first down plays.
So the Cowboys had about the same chance of gaining more than seven yards, as the offense did of losing an average of four yards. Had the Cowboys lost four yards, the field goal would have gone from being a 49 yard attempt, to a 53 yard attempt. With a gain of zero yards (31% chance), the Cowboys are still kicking a 49 yard field goal.
But your stats show that Dallas needed to gain at least 10 yards on that 1st down play. The Cowboys accomplished that 3 times during the Arizona game: or on 10% of the plays run on first down. For the game, the Cowboys offense gained at least 10 yards on about 19% of the plays: or roughly the same percentage of negative plays it suffered including penalties (16%).
Hopefully you are starting to see the pattern that Jason Garrett alluded to on Sunday. As Trent Dilfer pointed out on Monday, the Cowboys were not guaranteed to gain yards had they run a play with 26 seconds left to play in the game. The numbers bear that out.
I find Garrett’s reasoning sound. I do not look at the result, because if the plan is solely to be judged by the result of the play, then Garrett deserves great credit for wins at San Francisco, against Washington twice, and versus the Dolphins.
Rather, I look at the reasoning behind the original decision. I did not think his reasoning was flawed, and unlike most people (just my understanding from listening to the radio, watching TV, and reading posts on Bloggingtheboys.com), I was happy to see Dallas not try to be greedy and force one more play in that particular game.
Of course, the same people upset with Garrett’s decision to have Romo clock the ball, sound much like those blaming Jason for the pass from Romo to Choice just before the half at Washington during last season’s opener. This time Jason was accused of being too conservative, while last season, Garrett was supposedly too aggressive.
by ScarletO on Dec 9, 2011 11:33 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Scarlet: this was SOOO money.
Thank you for this lucid, objective analysis. I wish I could agree more than 100%, because I would.
Spot on, man. Spot on.
by rabblerousr on Dec 10, 2011 12:24 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks rabblerousr.
Keep posting. Your stuff is great.
By the way, you should download Jerry’s radio show on the mothership. He said that he did not want to be a “rabblerouser” after the Arizona game.
Afterall:
“There can be only one!”
I find Garrett’s reasoning sound.
You may,but the rest of the football world didn’t. Plus, it came out that he apologized to the team later in the week.
the Cowboys were not guaranteed to gain yards had they run a play with 26 seconds left to play in the game. The numbers bear that out.
What did I say about playing scared?
I do not look at the result
Neither did I. I knew it was a dumb play before they kicked it. I’ve watched hundreds of pro football games and I’ve never seen a team “settle” for a 49 yarder when they had 26 seconds and 2 TOs left.
FYI … all your stats are nice but not particular relevant because the situation was entirely different than all the other first down plays you discussed. In that situation, the Cardinals had to play hyper-aggressive in an attempt to make a big play. A smart play caller uses that to his advantage.
Also, assuming that the Cowboys pass the ball, even if they get an incomplete pass, only 6-8 seconds fun of the clock. They had enought time to run 3 plays for yardage before calling a TO in that situation.
I was happy to see Dallas not try to be greedy
Greedy is trying to get to get a 22 yard field goal instead of a 27 yard field goal. A 49 yard field goal is no chip shot. It never has been. You don’t run the 2 minute drill to get a chance to win the game, you run the 2 minute drill to get the best chance to win the game.
FYI — the Packers and the Saints have aggressive play callers. Frankly, I believe that our talent on offense is almost as good, but Garrett is too fond of TEs and FBs to take advantage of it.
by Conn Cowboy on Dec 12, 2011 12:17 AM CST up reply actions

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