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What If: Comparing Packers And Cowboys 2010 Injury Problems

Much has been made in recent weeks about the Packers' injury situation. Their march through the playoffs was widely seen as a sign of outstanding depth and a great front office. And while it is true that a team that has won the Super Bowl has generally done everything right, it is also true that the Packers did suffer an inordinate amount of injuries.

The Packers ended the season with 15 players on injured reserve (vs. nine for the Cowboys) and in terms of starter games lost, the Packers had the second highest total in the league.

But they did not lose their quarterback (except for one game). So here's where we do a little exercise and ask ourselves, what would the Cowboys roster have looked like with the the injuries the Packers suffered in 2010?

Every year Football Outsiders compile a list of starter games lost (SGL). In this year's preliminary version, they calculated that the Packers lost 83 starter games due to injury. Dallas had the fifth lowest number in the league with 28.

Star-divide

Below is an overview of the top five and bottom five teams by starter games lost in 2010:

RankTeam SGL RankTeam SGL
1 Colts 89 28 Cowboys 28
2 Packers 83 29 49ers 18
3 Panthers 75 30 Falcons 15
4 Seahawks 69 31T Bears 11
5 Eagles 68 31T Chiefs 11

Not all injuries are equal, and there's little argument that losing your starting quarterback is just about the biggest injury your team can suffer. So comparing and weighing each starter game lost by the Cowboys against the starter games lost by the Packers may not be a particularly worthwhile exercise, and is much too tedious anyway.

What we'll do instead is look at the 15 players the Packers had on injured reserve at the end of the season, and see how those exact same injuries would have impacted the Cowboys.

Opening-Day Starters on IR
Pos Packers Player Injury Games missed Cowboys equivalent
RB Ryan Grant ankle/IR 14 Felix Jones
SS Morgan Burnett (R) knee/IR 12 Gerald Sensabaugh
ILB Nick Barnett wrist/IR 11 Keith Brooking
T Mark Tauscher shoulder/IR 11 Marc Colombo
TE Jermichael Finley knee/IR 10 Jason Witten
OLB Brad Jones shoulder/IR 9 Antony Spencer
Key Reserves on IR
Pos Packers Player Injury Games missed Cowboys equivalent
CB Josh Bell
foot/IR 16 Cletis Gordon
G/T Marshall Newhouse (R) back/IR 16 Sam Young
DE Justin Harrell knee/IR 14 Jason Hatcher
DE Mike Neal (R) shoulder/IR 13 Sean Lissemore
FS Derrick Martin knee/IR 10 Akwasi Owusuh-Ansah
OLB Brady Poppinga knee/IR 9 Victor Butler
LILB Brandon Chillar shoulder/IR 7 Sean Lee
FS Anthony Smith ankle/IR 5 Danny McCray
TE Spencer Havner hamstring/IR 4 John Phillips
Note: I am not intimately familiar with the Packers players and who goes where on the depth chart, so the Cowboys replacement players are my best guess and may contain some inaccuracies.

The Cowboys had three starters on IR in Tony Romo, Marcus Spears and Dez Bryant, who arguably would have become the starter without the injuries. A further six backup/reserve players (Sam Hurd, Sean Lissemore, Kevin Ogletree, Akwasi Owusuh-Ansah, John Phillips, Leon Williams) were also on IR by the end of the season.

Let's assume all of these nine players had stayed healthy, and look at how the Packers' injuries would have affected the Cowboys, leading off with the starters:

At RB, Felix Jones would have been a loss, but with Choice waiting in the wings and Barber for the short stuff, the Cowboys probably would have managed. The quality of the RBs wasn't really the big issue in the running game anyway. At tackle, losing Marc Colombo couldn't have made the situation much worse. Losing Jason Witten would have been a big blow, but staying in the tit-for-tat logic, the healthy combination of Romo and Bryant might have made up for that to some extent.

Safety would have been trickier with Sensabaugh out, as the Cowboys didn't have a lot of depth there to start with. Linebackers is where it would have really started to hurt the Cowboys. Not because the Cowboys couldn't have replaced Brooking or Spencer, but because in this logic, their backups, Victor Butler and Sean Lee, would have been out as well. That might have left Leon Williams playing inside and Brandon Williams outside, and the Cowboys might even have hung on to Jason Williams a little longer. And those three would definitely not have been any kind of Williams Wall.

The list of injured backup/reserve players does not strike me as particularly crippling for the Packers, and, with the exception of Sean Lee and perhaps Victor Butler, would probably not have been that big a deal for the Cowboys either.

Overall, with the Packers' injuries, the Cowboys would have had a healthy Romo and Bryant on offense, likely making the offense better than it actually was, despite the hypothetical injuries at RB and RT. On defense, the Cowboys would have been hit hard, and the lack of depth at inside linebacker and safety would have been brutally exposed.

What's your take, do you think the Cowboys 2010 record would have been better or worse than 6-10 with the Packers' injuries?

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If Rodgers went down for season no question they don’t make playoffs. Only thing that would have helped us make playoffs, if Wade gets fired during training camp.

I told you not to f*ck with me.

by Romoesbueno on Feb 11, 2011 9:12 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

You weren't saying that at the time

Lifelong Cowboys Fan from the Swamps of Jersey
My Beer Blog: http://tiltingsuds.wordpress.com/

by Seanrude on Feb 12, 2011 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

With Phillips at HC I don't think it would have mattered

I actually think Romo going down actually bottomed out the team so much, it forced Jerry to make the switch to Garrett. Now with Garrett as HC, having Romo healthy would have made a tremendous difference but I doubt it happens without #9 going down and the team imploding as a result.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 11, 2011 9:26 AM CST reply actions  

+1

agreed

He who laughs last, thinks slowest

by BigBad Joe on Feb 11, 2011 9:59 AM CST up reply actions  

Romo going down mattered little

Of course, he’s a better quarterback than Kitna, but Kitna played much better than I ever imagined he would. The team gave up when Romo went down, so it could be argued that our morale broke with his collarbone. But Terry’s right, with Wade at the helm we were going nowhere.

Greetings from the Humungus, the Ruler of the Wasteland, the Ayatollah of Rock and Roll-A. I laugh at your puny plans.

by Lord Humungus on Feb 11, 2011 9:46 AM CST reply actions  

It did matter...

They actually won some games… what would the record have been if Romo and Phillips stayed? I’m guessing 4-12 – Romo was winning when he was injured so they might have gone 2-4, however, the defence was not responding to Romo’s lack of leadership anymore nor Phillips – they both had to go and once they did we were how many points away from going 8-0? One fumble, one extra point and one bad slip.

Coaching will help, as well as filling some roster holes, if anything you can’t blame the bad season on 1 injury, especially when both backup QB’s have already been in the system for awhile. There last 5 games were a lot better than the 1st 5.

by scraig on Feb 11, 2011 9:05 PM CST up reply actions  

95% of NFL teams would go down if they lost their starting QB

So I think comparing the Cowboys season to the Packers is not a good Idea. Losing Romo essentialy ended any hopes of the Cowboys climbing back into the playoff race. If the Packers lost Rodgers they would have been done too. Stleers managed to win without Big Ben, but they are one of the few teams that could overcome losing their starting QB.

by Late for Dinner on Feb 11, 2011 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

and it proves Steelers win because of their defense

There are a lot of qbs who could be successful with the Steelers and many would have come out victorious in SB XLV considering Big Ben’s performance.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 11, 2011 10:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I would say that if you looked at most SB winning teams....

The defense is what put’s them over the top. The same Big Ben argument could be made with Tom Brady. The Patriots D is what led them two all three titles, especially the first two. Pat’s lost Brady for a whole season and still reeled off 11 wins. Than the Pat’s defense get’s old and they trade the veterans away and they can’t win a playoff game now, even though Brady thows for a gazzilion yards now.

by Late for Dinner on Feb 11, 2011 10:35 AM CST up reply actions  

I disagree

While you have to have a good defense to win a SB, some teams like the Pats, Colts and Saints are lead by their offensive and franchise qbs. If those teams lose their qb, they’re finished, but thats not the case with a team like Pittsburgh that primarily wins because of their defense.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 11, 2011 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

I said most teams

By the way, the Super Bowl winning Patriots were lead by their D not Tom Brady, When the Pat’s were winning Super Bowls Brady was still learning the game. Now Tom Brady is considered one of the best QB’s in the league but they have won squat why becuase their D is mediocore.

Defense wins Championships a lot more than the offense.

by Late for Dinner on Feb 11, 2011 3:18 PM CST up reply actions  

Don't kid yourself

In SB XXXVIII and XXXIX, Brady was definitely the leader of that team and it’s best player.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Feb 11, 2011 4:25 PM CST up reply actions  

I might suggest

that the Dallas equivalent to Al Harris might be Terrence Newman. Harris had been the starter in 2009 and, barring injury, might well have been again. If that seems like a stretch, then perhaps the equivalent would be Orlando Scandrick?

by rabblerousr on Feb 11, 2011 10:51 AM CST reply actions  

Thanks for the pointer

That should actually be Josh Bell, not Al Harris. Bell stepped in Harris in 2009 – and Josh Bell is comparable to Cletis Gordon. I mixed that up.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 11, 2011 11:22 AM CST up reply actions  

Fair enough...

but didn’t Harris officially begin the season as a Packer? If so, I assume that the GB braintrust went into 2010 thinking he wold play at some point. In that case, does he add to the injury list??

Either way, it makes what the Pack did all the more impressive…

by rabblerousr on Feb 11, 2011 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

I hate the packers but i do respect what they did this year.

i think the Pack just got hot at the right time. im happy they won instead of the stealers though. i agree if most teams lose there starting QB they would be screwed. Dallas was screwed before this though since Wade lost this team. Romo being hurt was one of the best things to happen to Dallas this last year.

by yehti on Feb 11, 2011 10:55 AM CST reply actions  

interesting article...

the only thing I think I don’t agree with was this:

“losing Marc Colombo couldn’t have made the situation much worse”

that depends on who they put in his place. I think we all agree that Columbo sucked and we all want him gone, but if Alex Baron is taking his spot it would be worse haha. I’ll never forget how horrible he was against the skins.

That’s one thing this year taught me…No matter how horrible a guy is, it can always get worse. The grass isn’t always greener.
I think Alex Barron and Alan Ball proved that. That doesn’t mean you should keep that crappy guy in (I would have liked to see Young)…but it can definitely get worse.

by beWARE94 on Feb 11, 2011 11:43 AM CST reply actions  

The offense performed about as well as we could hope for over the last 10 games

I can’t see Romo making a big difference. Losing Witten would’ve certainly hurt more than Dez. And the Packers lost Newhouse for the season too – that would be like us without Holland.

and the defense would’ve been even worse with the packer’s list of injuries,

by foyesboys on Feb 11, 2011 1:12 PM CST reply actions  

From your list ...

we would not have a had a viable RT with GB’s equivalent of Colombo and Young being out.

by GalTex on Feb 11, 2011 1:28 PM CST reply actions  

good point, I missed that. Of course, I could have used Alex Barron as a cop-out … nah, not such a good idea.

by One.Cool.Customer on Feb 11, 2011 2:00 PM CST up reply actions  

indeed

Gal did say “viable”!

by rabblerousr on Feb 11, 2011 3:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Besides the IR players

Cullen Jenkins missed 7 games. He has to be considered one of the 2 or 3 best 3-4 DE in the league. He had 7 sacks in the 9 games he played in. Ryan Pickett our opposite DE missed 2 games as well. Clay Matthews missed 1 1/2 games and we lost both those games. The 1/2 game he missed we were dominating the Redskins in the 1st half and ended up losing. Aaron Rogers missed a1 1/2 games as well. We lost those 2 games as well. We Packer fans believe we have one of the better back up QB’s in the league(Flynn played well in his only start against New England), but it is hard to overcome injuries to your best player on offense or defense.

by the yooper on Feb 11, 2011 5:37 PM CST reply actions  

The Question Was

What’s your take, do you think the Cowboys 2010 record would have been better or worse than 6-10 with the Packers’ injuries?

Is anybody going to address that question? I’m not smart enough to answer, that’s why I’m here reading. Help me out!

by bonedweezil on Feb 11, 2011 8:02 PM CST reply actions  

I think the Cowboys roster is deep...

they proved it in pre-season, their starters were ineffective on offense. However, obviously the Packers had better coaching. We were obviously not as prepared as we should have been, and that’s coaching 1st.

We would be about the same, although with the schedule we had it could have been worse.

by scraig on Feb 11, 2011 9:16 PM CST up reply actions  

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